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1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) CHNG 10 Tng Cu I macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 1 Trong chng này chúng ta s nghiên cu Trong chng này chúng ta s nghiên cu          !   "#    "$%&'()*+$%,- ,.   /"# 01 23+4 5!(67%('     CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 2 Bi cnh Bi cnh  89:4;; -<  =7  1)+(7  )+>>% ?@1A )05  53@BCD  E67  1)   )+>>% ?@;-  53F+ )+> CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 3 Bi cnh Bi cnh  8931!G /"#  H+$ %0AIC+D;-<  8JK23!(67)  !LB1+ < CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 4 Mô hình Keynes Mô hình Keynes  #,H,'%9) !(23>% ?@ D< *0AIC?@'%MN O<#<.  $P  Q -IC'%  Q  R  R  QDIC'%  QS=TC% QDC  C'1UDCVIC '%P -W'('IC'% CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 5 Các thành phn ca mô hình Keynes Các thành phn ca mô hình Keynes       = −   =      = =         = − + + = = 8 8I'   DIXP 7)  -+?%(7P DIC'%P ,'A?LP 1?%Y1 Y3P 2 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 6 Chi tiêu d kin trên biu  Chi tiêu d kin trên biu  thu nhp, sn lng,   chi tiêu d kin  Q  R  R  MPC 1 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 7 iu kin cân bng trên biu  iu kin cân bng trên biu  thu nhp, sn lng   chi tiêu d kin  Q  45 º CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 8 Giá tr ca thu nhp ti im cân bng Giá tr ca thu nhp ti im cân bng thu nhp, sn lng,   chi tiêu d kin  Q   Q  R  R  thu nhp cân bng CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 9 S gia tng chi tiêu chính ph S gia tng chi tiêu chính ph    Q   Q  R  R    Z Q  Z  Q  R  R    [ Q  [ ∆ ∆∆ ∆  Ti  Z , bây gi có s gim sút không d kin ca hàng tn kho… …do vy các doanh nghip tng sn lng, và thu nhp tng ti im cân bng mi ∆ ∆∆ ∆  CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 10 Tìm Tìm ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆ Y Y     = + +     ∆ = ∆ + ∆ + ∆ #T8   = × ∆ + ∆   = ∆ + ∆ *Z #T8.   − ×∆ = ∆ Z Z #T8     ∆ = × ∆   −   ,'A?L Y(C; I(  +(7 ?@ ∆ ∆∆ ∆  Q#T8∆ ∆∆ ∆  8G∆ ∆∆ ∆  % !139!P X)∆ ∆∆ ∆  P CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 11 S nhân chi tiêu chính ph S nhân chi tiêu chính ph \YI]P #T8Q^<_ Z Z #T8 Z Z ` Z ^_ ^[       ∆ = ∆ − = ∆ = ∆ = ∆ − &23a,53`+-Ca   b 3 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 12 S nhân chi tiêu chính ph S nhân chi tiêu chính ph &!(YI] #T8Q^<_ c dP +Ca23'  aDZ9 < &!( A  ?L Z Z #T8   ∆ = ∆ − Z ` Z ^<_   ∆ = = ∆ − CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 13 Ti sao s nhân li ln hn 1 Ti sao s nhân li ln hn 1  e- Ca  '%  a H+>9B P ∆ ∆∆ ∆  Q ∆ ∆∆ ∆  <  &D ↑   ↑   %3( ↑   %3( ↑   %3( ↑   =(21HX23 +9Ca?- ∆ ∆∆ ∆  < CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 14 S gia tng ca thu S gia tng ca thu    Q   Q   R  R   [ Q  [  Q   R  R   Z Q  Z ∆ ∆∆ ∆  Ti  Z , bây gi có s gia tng không d kin hàng tn kho… …do ó các doanh nghip gim sn lng, và thu nhp gim xung mc cân bng mi ∆ ∆∆ ∆  Q− −− −#T8∆ ∆∆ ∆  Ban u thu tng làm gim tiêu dùng, và do vy là E: CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 15 Tìm Tìm ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆ Y Y     ∆ = ∆ + ∆ + ∆ ( ) #T8   = × ∆ − ∆  = ∆ *Z #T8. #T8   − ×∆ = − × ∆ ,'A?L?G If(C;    +(7 S) ∆ ∆∆ ∆  P #T8 Z #T8     − ∆ = × ∆   −   %)  XP CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 16 S nhân thu S nhân thu  dP C;23'  aDZ9 P #T8 Z #T8   ∆ − = ∆ − ^_ ^_ g Z ^_ ^[       ∆ − − = = = − ∆ − E%#T8Q^<_A%?L CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 17 S nhân thu S nhân thu h+ AP &%a+) DDIX +)23A?L< h+ +9Z * (1!  . P C;% BA23 < h+ i9(ADY3P EDIX%'H3- *Z/#T8.23a D)% I(2Ca?-D)%+i 9(Ca9C  < 4 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 18 S nhân thu S nhân thu h + AP &%a+) DDIX +)23A?L< + +9Z * (1!  . P C;%BA 23 < h + i9(ADY3P EDIX%'H3- *Z/#T8. 23aD)%I(2Ca ?-D)%+i9( Ca9C  < CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 19 Bài tp: Bài tp:  jI]W G 1HCa- B23k)+>A ?L< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 20 ng ng IS IS  dP +?GIf11'%>3'1 U    (( !(1A ?L I< DC *)+>. QDIC'% T9!  +P           = − + + CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 21         Xây dng ng Xây dng ng IS IS ↓   ↑       Q  R  *   .R   Q  R  *   .R       Q   ∆ ∆∆ ∆   ↑   ↑  CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 22  dc ng  dc ng IS IS  c  I0<  ldP C)J+45Jm(- +a;DIC'%*  .< cG'3]+7!71A?L!D  !(1)+>*B+D C  .3)a< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 23 ng IS ng IS và mô hình th trng vn vay và mô hình th trng vn vay      *  .             *. # !  *?. c     Z  [  5 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 24 Chính sách tài khoá và ng Chính sách tài khoá và ng IS IS  8JGjI] /"# G0n0Y1'(1 *    .G)@%(% ;-)+><  o4?6-?L G 0Y1'(1+I  G  %(h CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 25         Dch chuyn ng Dch chuyn ng IS IS : : ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆   &7?5'p 1 ! (  ↑   ↑   ↑       Q  R  *   .R    Q  R  *   .R      Q   Z ()1I  G(,  ?L  [ hI(2 I 3)< Z Z #T8   ∆ = ∆ − ∆ ∆∆ ∆  CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 26 Bài tp: Bài tp: Dch chuyn ng IS Dch chuyn ng IS  jI]?GW(q  !G0n0C a%+I G   %(< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 27 Lý thuyt Thanh khon Lý thuyt Thanh khon  0AIC?@ O(#!I<  #H+$%9)!(+45 >% ?@-,< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 28 Cung tin Cung tin 8,+  P ( )      =  lng tin thc t  lãi sut ( )      CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 29 Cu tin Cu tin 8-, C%P  lng tin thc t  lãi sut ( )      ( ) * .      =  *  . 6 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 30 Cân bng Cân bng "45, rGA ?L -,,P  lng tin thc t  lãi sut ( )      * .     =  *  .   CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 31 NHT tng lãi sut th nào NHT tng lãi sut th nào cGa   Eo&s)   lng tin thc t  lãi sut Z    *  .     [   CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 32 Tình hung: Tình hung: S tht cht tin t ca Volcker S tht cht tin t ca Volcker  8UaZ:t^P π uZ^v  &1Z^ Z:t:P8 Eo&s#dT+ \(+'!?1(!LY1,K q]D)+731<  &1_ Z:t:/ 1g Z:_^P Eo&s)  k  _^v  &1Z Z:_wP π Qwtv e7d C ;Y1  )@% (%+45x e e 7 7   d d   C C   ; ;   Y Y   1 1           ) )   @ @   % %     ( ( % % + + 4 4   5 5 x x CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 33 S tht cht tin t ca Volcker S tht cht tin t ca Volcker , , tip theo tip theo ∆  y^∆  u^ ZkZ:_wP  Q_[v _kZ:t:P  QZ^gv gkZ:_^P  QZ`_v +(7B6 "$%+> , oBz! *8;G. &'() *. IC(1 '%) C%  !"#!"$!!%!&'()*+,! ""- 1)  I767 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 34 ng ng LM LM eA4  !@+7-,P        = ./0  +?fIf11'% >3'1((,?L- ,< T9! "# +P ( )       =   CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 35 Xây dng ng LM Xây dng ng LM   Z    *    .            *    .      *. & !, *?. c"# 7 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 36  dc ca ng LM  dc ca ng LM  c "# I+D<  ldP Ca23+a-,< =(,+  ACI -!D !,7B+45 A?L?-< "453)aG'3]+7!71 A?L!D !,< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 37 ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆   l l à à m m   ng LM d ng LM d   ch chuy ch chuy   n th n th   n n à à o o   Z    *    .               *. & !, *?. c"# [     CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 38 Bài tp: Bài tp: Dch chuyn ng LM Dch chuyn ng LM  S)j!7+2{YI] a+(DIXj I],q0D9G C1(I <  jI]&'()Gr! C'+I G "# %(< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 39 Cân bng trong ngn hn Cân bng trong ngn hn 8A?L!(67+C '%>3U    W ()41,' A?L!D ! (1V !,P           = − + +          =   Lãi sut cân bng Mc thu nhp cân bng CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 40 Bc tranh tng quát Bc tranh tng quát Mô hình Keynes Lý thuyt Thanh khon ng IS ng LM mô hình IS-LM ng tng cu ng tng cung Mô hình AD - AS Gii thích nhng dao ng trong ngn hn CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 41 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng Z< #  9?)01 23  (Y1'(1 V-+?%(7  Y1'(1BA 23< [<    0531|'-IC'%F+  +45  r!11'%>3U    +A?L DIC'%DC,(1 I ]< 8 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 42 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng w< "$%&'()  9?)01 +45  (,V1)+?%(7  Ca,+)+45 g< c "#  0531|"$%&'()'- ,F+223  r!11'%>3U    +A ?L,-,< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 43 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng `< # /"#  C(U   "# r! GI5 *    .()4,' A?L@) !(1  !,< CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Aggregate Demand I slide 44 Xem trc chng Xem trc chng 11 11 &!(9ZZJK  jI] /"# G3AY1 H1Y11J  0n0;->0AIC %(| /"#  jI]W1 /"#  N=/N G3AY11H67 I71J  DB'pc7(1jI] 1J