CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor Commercial feasibility for Pakistan By Dr Athar Ahmed (Director ORIC) Assisted by Adil Rind, Sundia Devi Lohana Mahnoor Hoth DK 10, Street 38, Darakshan، D H A.CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor Commercial feasibility for Pakistan By Dr Athar Ahmed (Director ORIC) Assisted by Adil Rind, Sundia Devi Lohana Mahnoor Hoth DK 10, Street 38, Darakshan، D H A.
CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor Commercial feasibility for Pakistan By Dr Athar Ahmed (Director ORIC) Assisted by Adil Rind, Sundia Devi Lohana & Mahnoor Hoth DK-10, Street 38, Darakshan، D.H.A Phase Karachi, 75500, PAKISTAN Preface Though lot of articles and reports are written on China Pakistan Economic Corridor and uncountable experts on subject have expressed their views on it in various seminars everywhere and topic is still prevailing in print and electronic media and professional institutions, I, myself also have written two articles on CPEC but this article is the one which has touched the basis of every stage from felt of requirement of CPEC till paying back the amount to China and suggestion for monetizing and optimization of revenue generation opportunities for lowering down the loan burden I take this opportunity to thank the management of Greenwich University for providing me high tech professional platform for writing this report and provided me all required assistance including three hard working students Adil Rind, Sundia Devi & Mahnoor Hoth who help me out in gathering data, and last but not the least my special thanks to my Personal Assistant Shanza Zohaib for typing, composing and giving professional look, without help of these helping hands it was not possible for me to complete this task, further more I would like to make it very clear that everything mentioned in this report is my personal view and observation and Greenwich University has facilitated me & team for preparing this but not responsible for any contents Dr Athar Ahmed Director ORIC Greenwich University Abstract The topic of China Pakistan Economic Corridor is very much hot in discussions not only in Pakistan but all over the world, it is beyond any shadow of doubt that this project is outcome and execution of visionary thinking of Chinese leadership which in addition to China itself going to benefit the entire world, and Almighty Allah has selected Pakistan to blessed by the most important strategic location that can be beneficial for entire world by providing connecting route to southern part of the world with Northern part of the world In Pakistan, the debate on the profitability of CPEC is very much never ending topic, the section of group is annoyed from project and saying that all the benefits of project are tilted towards China and Pakistan will not be getting any benefit out of it, not even in employment generation as manpower engaged in development of project is also imported from China and China will be operating their own fleet of heavy vehicles for movement of goods to and from Gwadar and Chinese border, as such the logistic sector of Pakistan can not avail the opportunity of providing logistic services and Pakistani raw labor cannot get job opportunities due to presence of Chinese labor engaged in development of project, then where from benefit for Pakistan can come In this report we will endeavor to highlight how this project can be beneficial for different countries of the world in general and Pakistan in particular and the areas where more work is needed in order to make this project more useful for Pakistan and China Contents: How the need of economic corridor was developed Negotiations with Pakistani Authorities What could have been done? Marketing of port services for transit trade: 11 Stimulate African countries to enhance trade with Central Asian States: 12 Development of Inland Waterways System: 13 How the need of economic corridor was developed: Right from the initial time China start trading with rest of the world their trade is tilted more towards western part of the world, though there were many problems China was facing, out of those few are mentioned here The sea ports in China are located on eastern end of country and for all the vessels leaving China for western world have to start their voyage from port from East China Sea, Philippine Sea, Strait of Malacca, Bay of Bangal, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Suez Cannel to enter European Sea and then enter in North Atlantic Ocean for North American side or from Arabian Sea to Indian Ocean and then enter in South Atlantic Ocean from Southern African side for voyage towards Southern American side, the time when vessel cross from the point closest to Pakistani sea it covers the distance of 18400 nautical miles and so is the case when vessels approaching China from western part, when they enter Asia from Suez Canal/Red Sea and cross from the point closest to Pakistani port it has to travel 18400 nautical miles more to touch Chinese port Location of industrial cities in China are mostly on western China which are closer to northern part of Pakistan, i:e after unloading from vessel on Chinese port the goods need to cover 6000 miles of road travel of around days to reach industrial area The cost of incoming and outgoing goods was on higher side due to higher freight charges, due to longer distance the freight cost of Chinese goods in world market was higher which was making it more uncompetitive and at the same time it was enhancing cost of products coming to China from other countries The only way to approach Chinese ports is through Strait of Malacca situated between Malaysia and Indonesia and it is not deep enough to let heavy vessels cross plus it is considered among most dangerous zones in shipping sector, since it is not wide enough to be said as free movement zone but due to heavy smaller vessels traffic it becomes difficult to cross Strait of Malacca easily, according to reports around more than 100,000 vessels cross from this route each year and figure is increasing every year, in addition to heavy rush many accidents took place in area and this place is also known as “Paradise of Pirates” which has ultimately increased insurance charges that leads to change in freight and duties of goods that again increase cost for end user consumer in China and for others using Chinese products Though this is physical infrastructure of China but against normal global practice of developing industrial estates closer to port areas China’s industrial cities are located on western part of China which needed long road travel after voyage to reach its destination and that industrial cities are located closer to northern boarders of Pakistan i:e much lesser distance from Pakistani port areas than port of their own country (Red dot line: Voyage route for China, Green dot line: Inland travel route within China) Based on above mentioned realization Chinese leadership started thinking to start negotiations with Pakistani authorities for allowing access to Gwadar for diverting their shipping requirements from Chinese port to Gwadar port Negotiations with Pakistani Authorities: Though it is quite obvious like open book that major portion of benefit of China Pakistan Economic Corridor lies with China, if we calculate from average minimum of five vessels per day coming in and going out from China’s port, it means saving of around 92,000 nautical miles per day (18,400 nautical miles per ship x ships per day) i:e saving of 92,000 nautical miles and saving of around 18 days of travel time and that 18,400 nautical miles add to the C&F price of goods which ultimately add to the duties of inward and outward goods that is very much good reason for making product non competitive, in addition to this cost another reason of higher cost is due to narrow passage of Strait of Malacca larger and heavy vessels could not cross the area and smaller vessels are to be used for transportation to and from China which add revenue to cater higher number of vessels Initial negotiations shows Pakistani team was unnecessarily tilting towards China Developed psychological pressure of Chinese upper hand over Pakistan When agreements are signed, we have to pay them back around over US$56 Bn, besides making payment of heavy amount there are number of points i:e favoring more to China could have been strongly negotiated for tilting towards Pakistan, but now, the time is over, we have given many un-necessary concessions which could have been avoided, with these negotiations we have lost many revenue generating opportunities i:e exemption of paying octroi charges, allowing their trucks for lifting goods from Gwadar Port etc Though we have lost many options of revenue generations while negotiating with Chinese teams but as it is claimed about depth of Pakistan China friendship it cannot be re-negotiated and we have to execute on what is agreed and now before further negotiations for executions and other available revenue generation options we have to be very much careful and must keep Pakistani interest supreme because China has a long history of investing in lesser developed or developing countries mostly in African and South Asian countries but due to inability of pay back capability of those countries China has kept the property as collateral with them, few are as follows: China gave billions to Djibouti; they were unable to pay back, now China has confiscated their harbor as collateral damage China gave Maldives a loan, they were unable to pay back, and now 38 plus percent of the state owned resorts belong to China Madagascar couldn’t pay the loans of China and now lands were used as collateral damages Zambia could not pay back their loans; China is taking over their Air Port and Air Space soon, (Military jets included) Ethiopia couldn’t pay back the load, now the railway system belongs to China Kenya, 70% of their mineral resource mines belongs to China because they couldn’t repay the loan Sri Lanka also hands over port to China to pay off debts Similar type of transaction took place in Angola where an oil field is handed over the China to pay off debts Based on above mentioned facts we have to take it very seriously and should not take 40 years payback time as lighter conditions, instead of taking it as easy term we must immediately start global marketing of facilities developed in CPEC project and start paying back to China to complete payment in much lesser time then given 40 years What are the areas where Pakistan could have upper hand in negotiations but we lost that opportunity? What could have been done? It is natural and commercial fact that countries invest huge amounts to develop facilities for cheaper operations of all activities and optimized profitability, the quantum of inward and outbound trade of China is comparatively very high as compare with other countries, in following paragraphs we have endeavored to explain about savings of China by using Gwadar Port for their imports and exports as compare to using their own port located at north eastern coast of China Each vessel approaching Chinese port is saving additional voyage of around 18400 Nautical Miles and 18 days of voyage duration, thus each vessel is saving expenditures incurred in voyage of 18400 nautical miles besides saving of time duration which is ultimately saving insurance premium of excess voyage plus additional premium of crossing Strait of Malacca due to probability of more accidents and activities of pirates in area, as such the C&F prices of goods reaching China is reduced, this reduction in C&F value is lowering down duties amount which again results in reduction of prices for end user or consumer in China and vice versa, after unloading of goods at Chinese port it has to travel 6000 kms more on road to reach its destination in industrial areas where as that same industrial area is only 3000 km from Gwadar port, thus each vessel is saving 18400 kms voyage distance, 18 days voyage duration and another 6000 kms of road travel and this is multiplied by average of vessels per day and that is again multiplied by 365 days of year, we can very well imagine that all the investment made for CPEC could have been recovered by China through this saving only in much lesser time then 40 years time given to Pakistan to pay it back, even after this huge saving China has put forward the condition that they will not pay the local octroi charges in Pakistan till full and final settlement of loan by Pakistan, at present Pakistan is earning reasonably enough through octroi on goods of transit trade for Afghanistan which is 10 time lesser then quantum of trade of China, i:e if Pakistan is earning Rs.100/ from Afghan transit trade we could have earn Rs.1000/ from Chinese transit trade and the best thing in this deal for Chinese is that China is paying all local octroi charges for goods going from Chinese port to their industrial areas, but it is saved in Pakistan, so here again saving on head of octroi charges and depriving Pakistan from huge earnings Everyone is fully aware that new Chinese cities are being developed in Gwadar for people coming from China for CPEC project instead of hiring local people, the biggest charm of foreign investment is employment generation for locals but we have signed agreements for bringing large number of Chinese for operating project instead of locals which has reduced the biggest charm of getting employment in foreign funded project, in addition to loosing employment opportunities for locals another opportunity of getting business by local freight forwarder is lost by allowing Chinese trucks for movement of goods from Gwadar to Khanjrab Pass and from Khanjrab Pass to Gwadar port, it was very much golden opportunity for all the members of Pakistan International Freight Forwarders Association (PIFFA) for increasing manpower in their sector and truck assembly plants in Pakistan because Chinese people will bring their own trucks Pakistan could have easily convinced China for not importing man power for project and keep their trucks till Khanjrab Pass for onward local journey and keep the rights of transportation of goods from Gwadar to Khanjrab Pass for incoming goods and vice versa We have signed agreement for Built, Operate & Transfer (BOT), Had it not been on BOT basis Pakistan could have easily asked China to complete the project at their own cost without considering it as loan to Pakistan, even then it would have been beneficial for China, as from above mentioned statistics of traffic and savings of huge amount of freight China could recover spent amount from saving in much lesser time of 40 years given to Pakistan, whereas under present agreement China is getting back double amount spent on project, i:e payback of loan given to Pakistan for this project and gaining huge amount from savings on transit movements, savings on insurance premium, we can easily say that from this agreement China is getting return on investments from two heads So far a person of average sense and knowledge fail to understand what were the obstacles in putting forward our terms and conditions before Chinese team for acceptance and what was the pressure on Pakistani negotiating team to accept all the terms and conditions laid down by Chinese team, few from those conditions are: Management of port operations Tax exemption Octroi exemption Bringing manpower from China for project Bringing their own trucks till Gwadar port From above mentioned conditions Pakistan has lost the possibilities of generating employment opportunities for locals which in return could uplift the standard of living of local population which is already deprived of good employment opportunities and by allowing them to bring their trucks to carry the goods from Gwadar till Chinese border, at present (2020) on average of 15,000 to 18,000 smaller and big trucks move from Karachi port on daily basis which is giving opportunity of employment to around 55,000 to 60,000 people i:e average of persons per truck and these 15,000 to 18,000 trucks are carrying goods for up country and goods of transit trade of Afghanistan and does not include trucks destined for China, after start of full operation it is estimated that around 30,000 to 35,000 trucks each day i:e around 15,000 more trucks will move which can provide employment to 45,000 people more in logistic sector which we have lost In addition to loosing employment opportunities Pakistan will lose huge revenue earning opportunities by accepting their term of exemption in taxes and octroi charges till return of entire invested amount, where as all local taxes and octroi charges are paid on movement of goods within China but exempted in Pakistan territory, Pakistan could have put forward the condition of adjustment of revenue amount of taxes and octroi against their loan which could lowered down the loan burden on Pakistan and could help Pakistan in paying back much earlier than given 40 years The answer of question “Can we re negotiate for softer terms now?” is simply “NO” then what is there for Pakistan in CPEC, the answer of nd question, “Have we only given them our land, port and corridor for exclusive use is also “NO”, now the answer of nd question in “NO” carries lot of hidden opportunities for Pakistan and if Pakistan properly and professionally trace those opportunities than we will be able to generate revenue for clearing our debts from this project, though the revenue will not very much high as it could have been, but still if we optimized our available opportunities by tracing those hidden opportunities and monetized them professionally then only we will be able to generate revenue for clearance of our debts and keep the name of “Gwadar Port” away from the already available list of projects in different countries which China has taken over due to nonpayment of their invested amount in their countries Now the stage has come where we have to dig out all those hidden revenue generating opportunities of project which can ease down the payment pressure on Pakistan Marketing of port services for transit trade Stimulate African countries to enhance trade with Central Asian States Develop Gwadar as “Trans Shipment Hub Start working on “Inland Waterways” on war footing basis Marketing of port services for transit trade: This giant project carries dozens & dozens of opportunities for Pakistan that can be extremely good for economic uplifting of countries but nothing will happen unless we our self explore, identify and develop opportunities and practically execute them i:eglobal marketing of transit trade facilities, needless to mention here that effective utilization of all invested revenue generating opportunities can optimize revenue generation, an aero plane flying with lesser pay load is a loss, train service with lesser passengers is loss, as such air ports and sea ports can also go on loss if air and voyage traffic is thin at facility and very clear example of available of 44 airports in Pakistan out of which only three generates revenue, therefore we must look for ways and means for increasing traffic on Gwadar port, but the question arise here is how the traffic on port can be increased, on one hand we are working hard to minimized our imports, but this reduction of traffic by decreasing imports can be compensated by endeavors of enhancing exports for maximizing traffic for lifting exporting goods from Gwadar port but creative thinking can reveal that Almighty Allah has blessed Pakistan with highly important strategic location that can be very effectively utilized by offering transit trade facility to neighboring countries located close to northern part of Pakistan, Pakistan is already providing transit trade facilities to land locked country Afghanistan, and immediately after Afghanistan is a block of six land locked countries i:e Central Asian States which are full of natural resources and minerals and if we offer our transit facilities to complete block of African countries consists of 32 plus countries and stimulate them to enhance their trade with Central Asian States than we can make optimum utilization of God gifted strategic location by connecting 32 plus African countries with six Central Asian States At present we are providing transit trade facility to Afghanistan only through which we are generating reasonable income through octroi plus earning of Pakistani logistic companies, by adding six Central Asian States on average of same level of services our transit trade earnings will increase by seven folds plus China along is equal to these seven countries but even if we take as fold than our transit trade revenue will be increased by ten folds as compare to what we are generating now 2 Stimulate African countries to enhance trade with Central Asian States: The topic which is taught in subject of Sales Management frequently is “60% business comes from old business, you will have to work to generate remaining 40%” of business to make your entity profitable up to its optimum level, in order to monetize the project at its optimum level we should form special committee having members from the field of Freight Forwarding sector, Shipping sector and Custom authorities to conduct study to find out whom we can provide transit trade facilities and what will be the benefit for them by using as transit trade facility, if we our self look the world map we can easily realize that a vessel leaving port of any African country will have to cover extra long distance for reaching country of Central Asian State which increase time duration also, from this scenario we can develop marketing plan for connecting 30 plus African countries with six countries of Central Asian States, Afghanistan and China, that can generate revenue which is beyond our imagination (Red dot line: Tanzanian port to Gwadar, White dot line: Gwadar to Central Asian States) Develop Gwadar as “Trans Shipment Hub” Keeping in view of strategic geographical location of Gwadar, its access route, its depth of 18.2 meter, capacity of 120 berths, available natural facilities Gwadar is an ideal place to be developed as “Trans Shipment Hub”, by developing trans shipment hub the shipping industry worldwide can gain its lost past glory and profitability can be regained by optimum utilization of marketable cargo space, large vessels from western part of the world can carry full load not only for countries goods are destined for, but for all the countries of eastern part of the world and vice versa, the marketability and profitability of space in vessel can increase manifold, otherwise it is difficult for any ship to move profitable payload and at the same time to meet the dead line of delivery time of consignment and exporter cannot wait till the ship gets full pay load as such one voyage can be split into two voyages, st voyage of vessel starting from European destination will carry goods for all countries located beyond Pakistan on eastern side and dump in Gwadar port and return back to their own country after picking up the accumulated goods coming from different countries from eastern part of the world for their country, therefore on return voyage of every vessel will be full of stuff for their own country, due to natural depth of 18.2 meters the largest container vessel can be docked for loading and unloading and again due to availability of 120 berths on port larger number of vessels can be accommodated at one time for shifting of goods towards both sides, by adopting this type of trans shipment of goods, the movement of goods at much faster pace from north to south and from west to east and vice versa, we will be able to generate more revenue that can be used for paying back the debts for clearance to China Operations of “Trans Shipment Hub” World can be divided in three groups; Group – Consist of all countries on eastern side of Pakistan Group – Consist of all countries on western side of Pakistan Group – Consist of all land locked countries on northern side of Pakistan In order to market maximum cargo space the shipping companies book maximum cargo for countries coming en route to its set destination and it depend on marketing department of shipping company how and how much cargo they book on return journey of their vessels but “Trans Shipment Hub” can give all shipping companies an opportunity to all countries of Group to book all the cargo from their home country destined for any country of Group but instead of going to all countries separately unload entire cargo at Gwadar Port and load all the cargo of their home country reached at Gwadar from different countries of Group 2, and same process must be adopted by vessels of countries of Group and cargo fare must be divided on mileage basis, by adopting this process the cargo movement time will be reduced drastically and wastage of marketable space in vessels will be reduced and cargo space can be utilized at optimum level By adopting above mentioned suggestion Pakistan National Shipping Corporation can remobilize its marketing department for marketing of cargo space to different countries to pick and drop their cargo for onward voyage from hub Similarly all the cargo destined for countries of Group must be taken care by Transit Trade Department of Trans Shipment Hub for sending through designated cargo movers till their countries and their outgoing cargo must be brought by them on their return journey for onward outgoing voyage on vessel of that country Cargo handling capacity of Gwadar Port will be 400 million tons per anum (When completed) Benefits for shipping companies: Present is an era of large container careers and from commercial point of view if operating cost of one small container career for any given distance is Rs.100/ and little larger with 150% capacity will not be Rs.150/ and large vessel with 200% capacity then small vessel will not be Rs.2000/, it will be maximum Rs.1200/ and Rs.1400 respectively, as such it is more feasible to operate larger vessels, but the main hurdle for use of larger vessels in this route is shallowness of “Strait of Malaca” which is not deep enough to let larger vessel cross easily and in addition to shallowness frequent zig zag also make the voyage impossible for larger vessels, therefore the multiple problems of availability of pirates, presence of participant of “War Practice Zone” shallowness and frequent zig zag in area make this area more difficult and expensive, due to conversion from bulk career vessels to container careers of larger capacities that route is least considered now, though the port of China can accommodate larger vessels but the access route to port is difficult and expensive, but at the same time marketing of shipping services must be made stronger enough for optimum utilization of available space and each and every Sq Ft of capacity must be monetized, otherwise people remember very well what happened to world largest German Shipping Company “Hanza Lines” If we look Pakistan from political eye we can find that India is the only country with whom we are not maintaining cordial relationship and this opponent attitude is exposed on every platform, present is an era of realistic approach in our visions and era of setting priorities based on requirement of people of country, the dispute of issue of Kashmir is the one issue which has never let both the countries come closer mentally despite of geographical closeness and both countries are spending extra ordinary huge amount on defense since last 70 plus years, though many time ice melting scenario was developed but it is beyond any level of imagination every time it takes u-turn, if Pakistan make an attempt of offering this economic corridor for transit to Indian goods destined for Afghanistan and Central Asian States and vice versa we can confidently say that by utilizing this facility and gaining benefits of lesser freight cost which can ultimately make Indian products more competitive in Central Asian States India will focus less on other disputable issues and will keep them in pending for decades and decades, where as Pakistan will lose nothing rather keeping in view the size and trade volume of India with Afghanistan and Central Asian States we can enhance our revenue generation capacity on account of octroi plus enhancement of job opportunities in our freight forwarding sector The revenue generated on account of octroi earned by providing transit trade to African States for Central Asian States and by connecting India with Central Asian States and by converting Gwadar port as Trans-Shipment Hub can be utilized as installment towards settlement of loan otherwise name of Gwadar port can be added in list of facilities China has taken over in eight other countries, after settling the loan amount to China Pakistan will be in a better position as the Chinese condition of not paying octroi till full and final settlement of amount spent by China will be over and trade volume of China alone is bigger than six Central Asian States and Afghanistan, currently Pakistan is earning by offering transit trade to Afghanistan only, after starting transit trade for six CAS countries the figure will be seven fold more, but after clearing Chinese debt alone the octroi earning of Pakistan can be equal to those seven countries due to large volume of Chinese trade Development of Inland Waterways System: As it has been said very frequently that Almighty Allah has blessed Pakistan with everything needed for progress, the only thing needed is tracing and making effective and optimum utilization of all those tangible and non tangible God gifted items and facilities, among many natural features Pakistan has been blessed by rivers but due to lack of creative thinking capabilities we have so far not made any effective utilization of rivers and sea ports in Pakistan, Singapore is small country but major portion of economy is supported by Singapore Port due to effective utilization, other globally known sea ports which are contributing reasonably well in economies of their countries are Jabal-e-Ali port of UAE, Warsaw port of Poland, Purus port of Greece, Hamburg port of Germany, even within boundaries of a country Germany has developed River Rhine as biggest travel resort and pleasure voyage is introduced which is contributing huge revenue for national kitty, whereas despite of having rivers Pakistan has done nothing for any effective utilization If we see the chain of rivers and 1000 miles of coastal area of Pakistan nothing we have done so far to encash this God gifted facility, the use of port can be enhanced by providing transit trade facilities to maximum number of countries but what can be Done to monetize our rivers available in Pakistan If we look into the map of rivers in Pakistan we will find the possibility of movement of containers through plain container barges pulled by power boat, though the water level in Indus river is very low but that can be increase through better water management process by experts, it is very unfortunate that under 18 th amendment the rivers are subject of provinces instead of federal government, in province of Punjab “Inland Waterways Co., Ltd” is working well but it is confined within province and local tourism whereas Sindh Government has done nothing for development of inland water ways, Pakistan Navy has conducted the survey and practically shifted large size heavy machinery through barges pulled by power boat till Multan for installation in large factory near Multan, the survey and ability report of movement of containers through barges pulled by power boats till the Attock city of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province and to make it on regular basis is practically checked, only little investment is needed to commence inland water ways service, if we look into present status of road transportation, as mentioned here earlier that as of now around 15,000 to 18,000 trucks moves from Karachi on daily basis and the larger size long vehicles uses 22 wheels, that means 18,000 multiply by 22 is equal to 396,000 wheels roles out from Karachi on daily basis, if we look towards water transportation it is not more than 20% of the cost incurred on rail or road transportation as such 80% of the cost on transportation can be saved and road transportation cannot be stopped completely but for sure encouragement of inland water ways and its low cost the road transportation will automatically be discouraged and due to lesser cost transporters will them self prefer through water ways but it can go against us again if we allow others to operate their power boats in rivers of Pakistan, due to reduced transportation cost in water ways the profitability will be increased and it will be in our own hands, as such we will be owning the system which can generate job opportunities for locals instead of imported workers, the road transportation for transit goods will start from Attock city for onward journey for Afghanistan, China and Central Asian States ... more useful for Pakistan and China Contents: How the need of economic corridor was developed Negotiations with Pakistani Authorities What could have been done? Marketing of port services for transit... Gwadar for people coming from China for CPEC project instead of hiring local people, the biggest charm of foreign investment is employment generation for locals but we have signed agreements for. .. major portion of benefit of China Pakistan Economic Corridor lies with China, if we calculate from average minimum of five vessels per day coming in and going out from China? ??s port, it means saving