Assessing World Bank Support for Trade,
Trang 2INDEPENDENT
/ALUATION GROUP
ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION The Independent Eolusdon Group (IEG) reports dct to the RankỖs Boa of Executive Disecors, IEG asses es what works, and what does ol how a borer plas to run al matin a projet and the sing cmt bution of he Bank o a country's overall development The goals of evaluation are o lesen from expertenee, tố
provide an objecive bass fe assessing the resus ofthe Bank's work, and to poe accouataty ta the achievement of is objecitex I alsn improves Bank work by ienyng ac dssominating the lessons barn ftom experience and by taming recommendations deawn fom evaluation fdings,
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WORLD BANK INDEPENDENT EVALUATION @nour IEG
Assessing World Bank Support for Trade,
1987-2004
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Trang 5Contents xi xi 6 Acknowledgments Foreword Executive Summary
Acronyms and Abbreviations
1 Ineoduction 4) Rationale or Banklnsotemten: 5 Objeve ofthe Baluation
2 Lessons ae Yolicy Reform and Ezonomic Geowth from the Literature 11 Lessons from Past IBC Esaations
3 Inputs, Tends, and Evolution 15 Lending Inputs to ade of World Bank Trade Assis 3L Nonleningipats
4 Outcomes and Results Si Project Outcomes
35 Economie Outcomes (or the Sample Countses 42 Lessons atthe Country Level
'5 Tra Rotuns tothe Agenda, 2001-08
'5$ Bank Farcipation in Global Policy Discussions and Advocacy 55 Bulding ade Capacy
Trang 6B Ợ 5 Appendixes T5 % mà ns 19 lạt us Ms 1 159 16s ng Ừ 215 215 Endnotes Re Boxes Ừ 2s 3 56 Ợ At tò @ Dt Dé be eh Bà Bs
ỘTimeline of Nojor Developments in ternational Trade, 87-2005 {Conceptual Framework fo the Baluation
ỘTle and Development-ỞThe Sate ofthe Debate Lessons from Previn I Evaltions Defining Tade in the Bank toate
oetflio Data or Tele Related Projets ỔChanges inthe Focus of Trade Condiionaley {implementation of Candions
(Core ant Non-cor Tile Projets 1G Foafoto Racings
Ộrale.Rebted nvestnent Projets Probt Estimation ofthe Determinants of Project Outcomes ỘAggregate Economic Anas
Sovires of Growth Dcompostion (Case Countey Protles|
COrenizational Char forthe International Trade Department Establishment of he Trde Deparment
ỔWorl Hank Advocacy Indust County Trade Poies Distnbucion of Trade Capacity Bulking Components, 2001-04 Genera Survey Ress
Saf Survey Results
ỘTrade in County Assistance Strategies Ộrae Nowe Series Management Response
(Chairman's Summary: Commitee on Development ỞỞ
Elements f rade Poy Reform Are Varied and Diverse CConlttonalty May Be Neither Necessary nor Sufctent, High-Quality ESW Supports foley Dialogue
Regional Repos ca TraeỞStrtege ad Nona ỘTae FnanceỞA Continued Struggle to Be Elective fr Some Fle to Implement Complementary Poses Can Be Costly
Do Regional Tang Arrangements Help Liberze Trader ỔWhat ls Tade-elated Capac Budge
Independent Evaluations ofthe Integrated Framework
fective and Timely Leverage of Knomledge WTO-Relate Tide Capi Bang
Minimizing the Fics of Commoxtty Shocks
Ổdein County Asisunce Strategies: Med and Uneven Intell Leadership Pas Collaboration Vill Operational Relevance n Sanitary and Phostntary Srintarls
Trang 7Figures
#1 Opening Economies [LI Deetinng impor Tis, But rower
12 Conceptual Framework forthe eakuation
-31 Tride-elted Bank Lending Has Varied But Tended Downvard over 32 The Thematic Foces of Bank Lending aud Direct Lending to Exporters Gave ay to ade Faitation for Tae: Trade Liberalization 44 Focus of Trade Conditions in Adjustment Loans Shed over ể 34 Maximum Tariff Recommendations Covered 4 Wide Range 435 Number of lending Conditions Decined ewer 1987-2104 `6 New Diagnostic Stles an Trust Funds Catalyzed Increase AL Stated Objectives of rae-Relited Projects, 1987-2004
se Rens Sil Significant
Summary of Polley Design tues
ỘTrae Adjustment LoansỞSample Characteristics, 1987-2004 532 Tre Loan Conditions Most Often Addressed Hoth Inpors and Exports, Hut 2 Tied af Loans Forusel Slay oa ipes 3 Trade Adjustment Loans Featured Song Implementation Meeting Lending Conditions Did Not Necessary Inpaove Economie
Ferformance
{AL Factos Undesving Peony Reforming Projecs 12 Indicators of Protection
45 Bank Tice Chens Dire rom Other Developing Countries {4 Economic tictor: Wil and without Rink Asstance and Before and Aer Tre Reform
45 Changes in Export ConcentaionỞHalfFullorHaléEmpe? 16 Facies behind Change i Exports By County Groups {7 Export Gromth and Incase a Ae 1985-208 5.1 Tae in CASS by Region
Trang 9Acknowledgments
xl by the Country Evaluation and Regional Relations division of his evaluation of the World Bank's assistance on tradle-selated issues was | prepat the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) The report focuses on the period between fiscal years 1987 and 2004
ỘThe asc ker ofthe enon ms Yonne Ổkts the main author ofthe ron Gregory DDeparmene (DED) now the Ise pendee Bs on Group upto Ap 1, 2005) provided guidance al dein oth sadn sine phases A accompanying etalvation by Jaime de Melo 200 and 200%, The reporcs base on inputs fom TRGsaffamlsonsuamevho toaalutelcounty arkgound papers The repo bene om the
ể
Si country chéo sex were prepared by Park Conway Moe) rank later none st), Andrew Lambert (ovambique), Arid Panga ind), eer Robinson (ambi) ad 1B Lynn Salinger (Senegal, Desk reviews were prepared of Agent an ery (Gonz Salis) The clon eam grey appreciates the ie an nhs of past and curren cour eto ỔStor aanapers sk tea ade, gveenment ofa Inceriewed for these reviews (and who are ancl eae representaes who we cnn in the ind repo)
Dele reviews of the portale an mete: valuations of related LEG
fuertaken by Gonsalo Sains Mari Logs Gallant anal the poverty content of rte related projects Inventories of the Bank's Assistance Evaluation (TAE) team benefited Departments Progsess reports Arta Ama ene Eesel, and Francis Np were extremely help n pointing the team tose sures of Ổats and information NI menber ofthe team provided research assistance for Chapter 4 oth Jijarak carnied out the esonomertc analysis in Chapter 4 and Sonia Sanchez Quingela analyzed the Bank's tre-capacty bulking pordoio, Ana Mala Menendez and CGonvalo Salinas reviewed te rade content in CCounery Assistance Strategies Debby Wang reviewed implementation of tae adjustment lending In collaboration with Yeonne Tskata, Ron Cohn, Kimberly Hewitt, and Mary Metatosh and of Princeton Sursey Resedrch Astriatex Inernaiona (SRA) designed and conducted clectonic surveys ofthe coverage, quay, nd
Trang 10cifectveness of the Bank's analytic work om trade wih Bank staff, poley makers, nongovernmentalỢ orgaizaions (NGOS) acalemics and private sector represemtaives, In adiion, PSRAl conducted structured fice torice interviews tion (WTO) delegates, donor representatives, with Workl Trade Organica
ỔComments on the daft survey insruments received fom Carlos Pima Braga, Jaime de Me, Rehanl Newfrrmer Pirdck Gas, ml Steven Jaffee were much appreciated, The team alo thanks al ofthe respondents who completed questionnaires or gave imersews forthele ume and insights We thank Fabienne Maeztens of the tank's Geneva Olfce for logistial support and Carlos Primo Brag and Chiedu Osakwe (WTO) for faciitating the survey work The survey results by PSRA and analyzed by Ywonne Tea, were compiled A number of background papers wer prepare for the evasion ination 0 the country case sues described above They included 190 papers on Bank asa (Sarath ajpaucana) and a review ofthe mechanics of tre reform (Ademola Opie) ot ited by Gianm Zanini wade promotion inscuments {Claes Lindab), impact of Bank lending for trae (othin inirak, Gonzalo Salinas, and Ywonne Tllata, and cle condtionaly (samme Takats) The study hơnefMel immensely from comments of three peer reviewersỞJullo Nogues (Uaversidad di Tel Anning), Peter Harrold (Covey Director Sq Lanka), and Gene Tideck (UEG)Ởae the ỔApnrcach Paper and dea stages, Comments a the Approach Pape stage rom the following individuals were akg valuable Abdutahmtae Almofidhi, Alain Harb, Ajay Chhibber, Un Dash, Viet Elliot, Nils Fosned, Kds Halberg, Hernard Hoekoan, Gregory nem,
Trang 11Foreword
snvironment for trade and economic growth, following over ewo Te majority of developing countries have significantly improved their
decades of assistance from the Bank for tride reform, Taf and noa-tanif baer that eestor
Import constrains Laney eliminate Yet export Bank support has been highly vane While ost Regions diversified ther expots, Aca frodlet for many African counties, which Inlobal ade Thus, despite the eficency gains from ted, Hank sppoe has aot been slice nt path oman sustained growth ỔThe Bank's interes ia wade has gone through three phases, each with a quite differ fentapproach Dasa the ist phase the 188 fad carly 19903), the World Rank phiyed 3 Significant role Inthe storm of developing country tre polices through adjustment lending by supporting trade-rlitet inst tions and infeaseuctre Daring the second phase, From the mi late 193s, the Bank's emphasis on trúc declined, akhough the impact of eater ade refoems was stil playing out, Analytical work Ổom uae (and to lesser extent) new lending Ổsas es than in she ise phase
12001 the Bank reapprased ste act phase has focused on the global ding system and on the wse of tade-reed eeseurch, ỔMoca: capacity bulking and mainstreaming bf tau tn Bank operations Oa the lending side, attention ha shied to tae fasion {both physteal infesteucture and insttions) Ộrale-eated projets have been hel redudng dietorlons and relaxing the impor consis, Howeves,crosecounty anaes and countries, depending on intl conditions the Hegre of macroeconomic sailzation, the estence of prior analyses, and the qualty of trade-elated institutions The Independent valuation Group (IEG) also fond that the Rank underestimated the complexty of omple- mentary refoemsia the investment cate paid inadequate attention 10 exteral factors, and fave ineueient auention to analyzing the Economie growth offen improved afer ber Improved expor supply response, bu iter to Ổmore general ficiency guns bought about by
Trang 12ỔThis eration finds the trade research to bbe of high qual, often timely, and with relatively few gaps Oa the advocacy side, thế Bạn has become more losely associated with speaking out on behalf of poor countries on trade sss, a contrast 19s relative silence in this area in the 1980s and 1990s The Ina sxtvocacy however, would have enefie from 4 broader fous, beyond iss of acu mace access, In tralerelated capaciy building, the valuation finds the stritegy vnclear The enphasze diagnostic work relative 10 the Ổetivery of coondinated tade-elted capacity With respect to mainstreaming trade, the Hank responded quickly 10 the aew coeporate focus on tide afer 200 by kecplng up mith the Word Tade Organization (WTO) nogot trae-related antical work, and bling an efeedwe alliance between the Poverty Reduction andl Eeonomic Management Network (PREM) and the anspor and furl sandaris, spectively Mainstreaming tade in County Assistance ỔSree (CASS) ad sestor arses sles his been slwer and wll require dưonger' and sete ỔOverall che Hank hasbeen 3 leader inthe roision of financial and technical suppor foe tre, Between Bao 1987 and 2106, the Bank: Approved about USSS8 billion for loans In teaderebtel zea, representing 1 percent of total Bink lending Thi financing was accompanied by a lige volume of operational reseacch publcations on trade, Since 1987,
Vềề
tenn fr ade hs decid, party electing the reduction a ending forte iberllzat6a ỘThis evaluation has ieee main commen ations est to ensure thatthe Bank's advice fn ede iesues i consisene with the instr systematic abour assessing (ex-ante) possible teade-elated povertyistabutional outcomes In both economic and sector wore and in lending operations, draving on the range of reeds to undertake a more sjstematic program Df research on mirodevel adjustment to trace policies, ooking at Rrms, households, and Indias
Banke may nee! 4 revit the Balance between the global and coun agendas and suengthen Ổoperational ins on erate shoes Pacticuaey Important is enhanced crossferulzation among ttle amd the financial sector and Drate sector development vce-presiencies, paticulay in the area ofsenices iberaation,
addon, guidance from the PREM anchor on Assistance Strategies in the context of the prow agenda, greater suppor from country Ổmangement wis ane mare cBocixe went Cation of wade champions inthe Regions are important to ensue tae i fully operational vd Tinadly the evaluation also recommends that the tink strengthen knowledge management efforts Greater sharing of country experience (Gs has been doe inthe aa of ageeulturl Saari) and beter integration of wade work done inthe center wih country-level work on agrcuture, labor markers, and pete sector Ổdevelopment wll be ceca,
Finns
Trang 14Main Evaluation Massages
Bank wade support ha helped reduce dtortans and con Ổnbuted enhancing external compestiveness, But the Bank undarestimated he inportance and complexity Ổof ompamentaryplcis inadequately anahzedajstment
Trang 15Executive Summary
than at any time in
recent memory, Developing countries have more than doubled their Ổexports since the mid-1980s, helping many of them to grow steadily Te developing world is anguably more open today
Exportsand imports have asen asa share ofthe ross domestic prodct (GDP) seross a wide range of countries, fueled ia part by China's remarkable tle performance andthe gee In services rade, Trade policies have also been SgnifcantlyHberaized Average import ails have fallen steadily over the period (Bore ES), although the fll in other forms of rection has heen more gril The Nod# Ban hay both lafuenced and been infvenced by these development, ỘThe Hạn his supported the reform of rade poles an the strengthening a ae-related lnsituions and infrastructure io its lien Ổcounties Retwcen sal years 1987 and 2008 bout 81 percent of total Bank comatments {58 bithon) went 10 117 cowntris 10 ep
them better integrate int the global econon ỘTis inancing has een accompanied by ge Ổokume of nas in persion economic and
sector work (ESW), research publications oa Trae, and working papers on trde-elsted toc "The Bank's interest in trade has gone through three phases, each with quite ier ent approach During the st phase (starting In the 19800, the Hank focused tngely on the
Ổeadidona wade agonda lated to opening up Ổronomis The an base ts involvement om Ổhe importance of tide for economic growth and om the role of openness in enbancing 3 Ổoumty's economic efficiency By increasing Ổie incentives for and prota ofexpacting, Ile support for te ekrm was expected to help expand and diversify exports Te ridings Ổdies prepared during this period reinforced Ổhs message (Chol and Papageorgio 1986; Kener Schill nd Wales 1991 Miche and
3 ei ates developing coemie
Trang 16Ổothers 1991; Thomas and Nash 191; Cooper and others 1993), Ổung te second phase, fom dhe mid to húc-l990%, the Bank's emphasis on trade declined, akhough the impact reforms was sil playing out Anaiieal work of earl ade and (io a lesser extent) ne lending were less Ổhan in ee Best phase The most evident aspect fof the diminished attention grade was the Ổdownsizing of Bank units working on teade Jssues Concurrent the elimination of he old technical units under the reorganization of 1996 diapered tade experts throughout the insrion, ancl sever subsequenthy moved om to work on non-ade sues Inthe third phase, nine wth the ollapse fof the World Trade Organization (WTO) Seale reade ministerial meeting in 1999, growing pressure delivero the Milenium Develop
ment Goals and interes fom development pariners (noaDly ilsteral donors) ed the Banke to reappnlse its trade etnies, Tis pase has focused on the global tading iste nd "behindthe onder bareer to trae Ia 2001 a decision was made 10 expand Sand by July 2002 anew sector unt deca to trade had been established ia the Bank, ta Created, bringing together staf working on trade sss from the Development Economies Complex (DEC), the Poverty Reduction and Eronomic Management Network (PREM), and Ổthe Woe Hank Insite CW) fv this tind stage, the Bank Increasingly treated the ulster tading system as 2 Framework Ổvith which its client counties could achiewe greater economic sategration (on equal footing) and anger numbers the poe wohl be Hfed oụtofpoveny This evaluation assesses the development ceectveness of ank re asistance between 1987 and 2004, based on the Bank's stated stemteies and objectives: "TraeỎ in this context refers to lending and aonlending ats tes that enhance the environment and capnhil ity of Bank cliems to trae goods and services la the global economy As part of this stud a review of the Bank's lending porta ant
Identify trade activities Six main areas of lending suppor were identified: tee Hbera tration, Insitutions) eae faction (oe Ổsample, customs) ifastuceue-eated rade faction (such a air eight, ports), private and public tele finance, and technica ssistace for tae negoiations,
ỔWhile there was no formal erie strategy prior to 2001, rhaee key documents provided Dally advice: the 1887 World Devefopment ỔReport ndustriatzaton and Foreign Trae, the 1988 Development Committe paper on trade, and the section on trade adjustment tern in Operational Dieective (OD) 860 ỘThe main poy reforms tbr in these Hlocuments tacluled replacing quantitative Hberalzation, maitainiag low and eelatvely twnlorm tars for elfiiency and politic fconomy reasons, and relic exchange mites fequitiag low ination The documents also encouraged studies ofthe economnie costs of existing poles, evaluations ofthe expected benef efor mpd data onsets fn! measutes of nominal and efectve protec "on, an strengthened capacity of reforming roumiies to asses their awn polices The World Desclopment ỘReport (WDR) also suppaded the inzeasod use of eondiionaliy in sructuraladjusiment ending asa catalyst for rade efor Together with 2 2002 Board report om rae, these documents provide the Strategies and objectives against which Bank trade assistance is evaluated
Trang 17
+ Importrelated Policies sich cimindine bereluing quantitate esiictonsand thee nontaif bares reluciaginipot ives and dispersion, making anf regimes more Ổunorm and tansparenr reducing import sur lang ffl reference pices
* Exportrelated: Riles elted to making Imports salle retporine redcngexpon bans, axes, and! hcenses, reducing the ant Ổxpon bis, expo credit and Gnancing ad bother expom incentives
Ổ+ Eachange rate and foreign exchange man: agement: Mosingtoward marersdetenmined feachange tes, exchange atedevaluaon, "dep 40080%enl and sexy om the sin teathe allocation of foreign exchange
+ Industrial and other supporting cing reform, investment promotion, con policies: peution poly, marketing, peatzaion aboe Ổures al sae ets
ỔBunk support for tade eform was genealy consistent ith the 19ST WDR on trade Operational Ditetive 8.60, and the hrerature fo tale poley reforms Eminaing quanti the restnctions (QR) and addressing exchange fate disequiba Hanke recommieed n in with he Merton wereoften the fst actons the
ỔMost le las inkally contained! measures adress both impor Hherazation ad to reduce disincentives for exporting But in Lt counties that together seceved 55 loans, the BánX led onhron imported messes ỔOver time, the Bank has pad Increased tention to export-eated measures rebnive (0 import iheraation ỔMore general overall condtionaty 2850 sed with trace as clined across Regions nd greater lance is being pared on Noating, fF single tance conditions, eather than oa Prior actions as wae previously the ease, The Ổdecline in condilanaluy reflects the move towed mone open repimes, a shift im the Hank's focus toward longer-term insttutonal and structual policies concurrent ase a IMF trade camtonaliy, a a ein tte era lao ehrough regional trlngaeeangements (ETAS) In ore recent years the shill also
Trang 18
the range of complementary polices they induce o suppor the tade eform Given the concezas raised above, and Ja hight of the evolving circumstances, ean be seen that Bank ade advice and suppor ding the 198s and 190 was 19 naerow ia Feu Specifically i underestimated the compledi and sequencing ofomplementary pois the role ofthe external environment (taking that cenvieonment as largely given): the interiction Ổoutcomes; an the country-specific context Ổwhich these polices interacted, Cansequent Banke advice was t00 optimistic about the Ổbene of ade Hhertzation for roth inthe shor rn
Project level Outcomes Teade-elated projects have improved im performance over time In general, tale Aaijustment loans have performed beter than thes austment loans in terms of projet Ổoutcomes (Bi versus 7 percent sitifictory) while tide lnvestment loans performed sigs worse dan other investment loans (9 Ổeras 72 percent stsactory, especie) At an aggeegte level, posive projet outcomes Ổvere more ely tobe assed! with mde income countres, low conditional, good institutional frameworks, and prior ESW Project design, unrealistic assumptions, and Unstable macroeconomic environments conibutel ow feqvehdlỮ t0 vnxiishttory Ổoutcomes for india projects
puts The project data and aggregate data fom 45 ovum show that Bank adice and Tending contributed to systematle reductions in pectection and 10 making tide regimes more open, though the pace fered across counties Many developing couatees sharp reduced the level amM dispersion of theit Import tans and thelr use of quanciative restrictions, withthe geeatest geductions sa latin America Developing counties also largely eliminated export taxes, lenses, and Ổbins Blick market premiums ala disappeared
as countries moved their exchange rte Feglmes toward market-based systems and ma " in Afrcan counties The Ranks less success fulia helping countaes reduce other hontAT Iracsiers, stably inthe Middle East and Nonh News
Outcomes The expor supply response was often vanable hile export diversifration occurred in most Regions, the low hase from which nontrad Homa exports grew in Aiea meant even rp growth rates were inadequate t dramatialy change the composition of Nea's export baskets Moreorer, many AMican countries experience an erosion of competiveness in tie export baskets, contnbuting to increased rarginakration in global trúc Imports Ổesponded ta the ceforms undertaken, growing sonsdint for importer However the sped Dfimportiberaation incteased competiive pressures in countries that were unable t0 Benerate dynamic and sustained manuactue allale total factor productivity growth gains
Impact
Trang 19not sulfcien.Ở4 finding supported by recent research in tls area The guns in economic sro were olen deven by domestic demand fsing from improved resource allocation, the than just expoct expansion The employ
trae reforms were mixed, and the Rank did ot conduct suliciene analysis 1 Snore its policy advice and lending on this issue oF ỔSstematically measure che outcomes, ỔWhile the inital impetus for trade form svas often an economic cris, sustaining the Ổefor vequced brvad suppad and owners Candiionaity ws general no cancicive to achieving that ownership, and the Hank was bại less leverage Bank sec and analy work were often inscumentl in supporting reform: its vale, however, sas reduced where 4k was perceived to be dogmatically hase External factors (market acess, regional Integrtion), coherent macroeconomic policies, exogenous shocks (deoughs commodity prices, and iets plementation fof complementary policies were cetieal ia etermining whether or sót individual countries raped the full benefits of trade nam,
Bank Trade Activites: 2001-08
revamps! in 2001, hastwo objectives (1) make the worl tading sistem more Ộeadly 10 deselopmentỢ or eciprocally open: and @) make trade an important part of country development strategies The Bank employed research, pareipation In global policy discus Ss advocay rade capaciy balding 2nd these objectives, The assessment of develop ents during this peo as 1a be considered in the context of the relive bret pero tudes seve This i especialỖ likely 1 he a Factor ithe minstcaming agen which necessarily requies greater commitment and The resurgence inthe Rank'satention to dd s nox pial characterized by gear trae lending conditional Instead, es
reflected in higher prof in global aca fn Increased volume ofrade-elated analss, dnd greater atteaion 19 the tnstutionỖs "apart to respon! terested anaite reeds and operational suppor ỘThis evaluation Gs the Bank's objectives between 2001 an 2004 tbe relevant, time -and hư responsive to she eapidly changing lobal ensironment on trae issues However fen the inherent lations ofthe Bank's ole ounte-speeic pote logue, the evaluation finds that more attention should have been ven to strengthening the analytical wots, processes and systematic iteactions becwoen fhe Trade Department and operational colleagues, Moreover, the depenlency om rst funds in cesearch and capacity building potently panes serious challenges to the Hane In detenmning an independent sok program,
Trang 20
The Radk has positioned itself mone effectively as an alvocate forthe developing Ổwide reach of ts publications, has conenbured tolncressing awareness ofthe ses, Given the plethora of other ators i the advoracy Rel {oongovernmental ofganzations such as ỔOxfam and Thied World Network, a8 wel {evelopment partners such a the UK Depart ment for International Development) and the
Banke cou! be seen most accunitely as an Auding to the pressure to influence changes, father than direc influencing outcomes, Sat Jae that he uaeỖ global advocacy le wsefl In positioning the Bank among client counties especlly those in whom the sti Ổlon might otherwise be less engaged on re Ổssues such asin Lain Ames)
capacky building (TCR) objectives unevenly dnd i appears that, 36 curently stated, the fbjectves may not alequtely eaptore the Scope and priors of Bank sci, Speci aise countries on tride polcy through 3 eamaticaly increased volume of rade-elated fnaltical work tht is the basis for country policy daloauc, as well as through capacty ỔThe Bank has also Increased its dilogue wich fepional tade institutions This Is especialy notable nthe Aca Region Anas hus been conducted on common external tues, eevenue implications and possible ade Ổversion for several RTAệ (sich a the Fast Ổica Community, the Economic Coaumunity ff West Mica Sts, and Union Beonomique 1 Moneta Ouest Africaine), as well as on Eroaomie Paetaeship Aggeements withthe european Union In Latin America, work on Central America Free Tre Agreement (CAFTA with Latin American officials ws times ỔThe Bank is doing less well helping countries 10 meet its stated objectives of ỔHlopting appraprate regional polices and pirfidpadisg more effectively in negotiations
1 hag bem las lective in Helping counts Ổmanage extemal shocks and acustment costs
The most high-profile inate in che Bank's TC work Is the Integrated Feamework for Trade-Related Tecnica Assistance (the IF), a rmultidonor, Ởmuliageney collaboration Drginlly set up ia 1997 to provide tade felate echnical apsstance to the 49 leas Hleveloped couatses (LDCS) While dagnostc needs assessments have been care oat foe
almost half of eligible LDCS, follow-up and Implementation have been slow: ỔConerete proposals and approval for te capacity project 30, 2005, 23 ates (811 mln) had been are ally emerging Aso May approved A review of he proposed activites Suggests overiap wih omer donor atts in some eases, defeating the purpose of donor haemoavation More general the paces sow rela othe Doha negotiations and the needs Ổlemied in the Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTS), and there is no mechanism to funded est Tao independent erations of the IF were Undertaken in 2008 anc 2008, Among the main evaluative fadings are that despite 3 3001 festracturing, weaknesses Irom the digi program remain including insufficient focus fn improved trade outcomes, eather than the process alone, anda shortage of funds Minancal aad administeaive) to meet the Ổdeme semanas for echnical assistance in developing countries Sore generally, IEG's review of 26 global pub progeams peosides some wseful lessons (OED 2004) The most felevan foc the IF ae the need ink finan ing 10 priors in a systematic Fashion, to sdfengthen and streamline che governance and Ổmanagement of peograms, atl to develop a resulssbased management framework
Trang 21
hotter along some dimensions than others I has responded quickly to keep up with the WTO negotiations and other global teade Jssues an to exaye rapid increase in wade related analtical work Tale Depariient stat embers have been a8 important pat ofthis ImprovementỞshariag thelr expertise through smision participation, contalutions 40 and leadership of reports, andl as peer reviewers Ổier sstuined decline from the 1990 following the conclosion of the Uruguay Round, ESW on tae ses has risen in recent the Canbbean, which starts a high eel In the past three yeu, siategie Reglomal Magshipn on tale have been cacred ut ia every Region except Ae (where one is under vay) and han been well focused on the parti tar concerns ofthe Regions they cover Underpinning this eeversal Is the greater terest a client counties i tide shes they grapple with more complex integration Jato the slobal economy, greater commutmeat and interest of doom teaing fo additional teas funds, and development of a new tae Ổsae an Important inital catalyst i spurting Ổnalycl wade workin hovincome counties bythe Banke The focus of rade ESW broadened overtime performance In the 1980s to encompass @ hauler detaion of competstiveness (bor ment considerations (such as the impact of Regional arrangements oF market 2ec8ss iss) creasing attention has ben given to the aalss of Repional ade integration issues Hons nobly in Afra (Economic Pacaership [Agreement and common extenal tails foe seAeBl Mfcan RTAS) and Lain America (eh asthe US-CAFTAgreement However repos have only rarely presented an indepth arabs of the welfare implications of tade polices, analyze! the iasttional framework or ade, fr incomporte!polkical economy cers tht Ổould influence rade reform an outcomes [so largely missing is microeconomie anal
bon the response of ems to changes in tle ESW, the Hank fas ome tess sellin Ổsystemically mainstreaming trade in Countey and poles although the rend is improving Regional ade coordinators (RIGS) in each of the Bank's six operational Regions are expected co faeltate the Information Now between countey management units (C2) tnd the PREM Network and to proide strate fe diection on tae tesues However, i appeaes that achieving full effectiveness in thee interventions is lated by budgetary dalfing, organizational and leadership issues With the exception of Area, the REC role remains largely an unfunded mandate The with sector leaders, lead economists, and fole However, in most Regions Is unclear whether the KFC has the necessary authority fr even Tead discussions with CMs In uddition, dhe absence of tangible budget support and links 10 anaual performance Ổalton reduces incentives To enhance the role ofan Regional vice presidental units {VPUs) in making trade linkages, would be sell to lay esponstiits, estas clear terms of reference and accountable, and for Regional management 10 indicate the rmovlalties for integrating trúc into the Ổcountry dialogue and growth agenda ỔAer a slow sat, owledge management seaives are picking up series of rade Nores Ổvas inated in 2003 aad the tade thematic froup ắs being revived But ap stil exists hhetween these actvies and the needs of ỔFounley economist A survey of Bank countey franomists indicated 3 need for more knowledge about tanstional costs associated with ride reform, greater empineal and Ổompaative ana, and paccl research on sobal supply chains ỔThe current trae agenda goes beyond the traditional concern with borer regions of tae, aontaril barter, and ather imped
Trang 22
rents ro trade, The gross dstorons in trade regimes endemic in the 198 have been reduced sigaificanily Foe sis reason, greater sttention sno cused on bebinlthelbonler Burners (ateeal constraints) that adversely affect a cousteyỖs investment climate, soa, Ổwiththe constant and opportunities assoc ated wie the global eating system, ỔWithin the Bank, global advocacy to redress Jenalances in he global wang system can be hun by senior maragement an the Tae Deparment alone, However, all the other Jmnpediaeats to global integration have 1 be aaldressed in conjunction with other sector /080s and requiz strengthened implements howe) and county management uns, Ia areas whese the other sector gooups Ổworked with the Tae Department or where the Trade Department provided incellctual leadership such a sna ml plytoelntany sands and te fcaton-Ởehe Bank has been successful i ensuring the operational the Hank might have made an impactỞagiteul linkagesỞinaequate Investment and less Jntelletua leadership has led 0 less sucess In an important arca of focus inthe ongoine WTO negotationsỞservices iberalzationỞ necessary shils underpin country dialogue and opecaions ỘTo enhance the effectiveness ofits trade sclviies, the Banke wil have to fice more Squaroy the mulsectoral ature ofthe current tale agenda Oser hall of the traerelated projects approved inthe past 10 years were {signed t0 4 non.PREM neteork Specialy the Bank wil have co improve links berween the various sectors and the Trade Department fon trade issues (research, teadeselated capacty building, knowledge management, fan development of too and templates) The rade Department can bring the giobal Jmplementation rests squarely in the hands of the operstional VPUs and the countey manage mnt uns Success this mulsecorl font
wil be the difereace between inviduaty Eompetent pieces of analytical pleces and a Recommendations
ỔRecommendation
ỔAdress Poverty Distributional Outcomes and External Shocks ina Balances Approach This evaluation found that despe the increas ing volume of research 8 poverty issues inthe Trade Depariment and of poverty and social lespact anal mane generally rade rl projets do not consistent or systemaially address povertyand distrbutional outcomes 'Yhile mạch mport beralzation is already Decured, further iberalzation appears possible for some developing countries, "` tâm aelonsare cdiol!
+ fit, IBG recommends eel all new projects with tale poy com that, a the country ponents ince adaeusion of hse tt at aminiaumy, dawson the cosesectora ex pets oferonamic poly pone gender pr Ổone secorevelopment and as appropiate) 2grculualand et development uns, 35 wel
ss eisting research nthe county le Ổon of possible transtional costs andl an as- Joreushioning shocks and actions mitgite Ổor mize shocks would be important com Ổerations broader dscuson ofthe determinants of in the dscusson lacing de
poveaty wl lp ensure tha this snot me Ổchanical exerts, but one rooted in ts ex preted importance Ổevo tthe ineitutionwide lve, ane fo Towing the Banks statement atthe Cancun
Miniter in 200, 1EG recommends hat 4 cconerete program ofajustment assistance be veloped more rapidly t0 respond tthe Ổreels shocks that developing commis may face To the extent that such a progeam to longer deemed relevant it wouk! be hel falfor managerent to clits
Trang 23rent to trae polices, looking ms Ổcals and Households
Recommendation 2:
Aevisit the Balance between Global and (Country Agendas and Swangthen Operational Links on Trade lsues 1G recommends that management revit the Iatince between its artes the aba evel fom the one hand, and on the Regional and ruler mature of de sues participa tory process that involves operational sector collegues, other networks, and the Tre
Deparment i kely to yield the greatest benefits Operational inkages seed 10 be steengihened among diferent units of the Hank and greater emphasis placed on countty
necessary
+ st reer strategic ad Imelecual guek ance is needed from the Tae Deparment fvith eespoet tothe concept framework Ổicin which county teams should conser trade sues The design faguilance note ad Upstream support om ap basso county teams paning countey asistance ielegie Ổell he practic ist steps ad eu hợp Asinglsh cases where tates gala pe fry ekement in the counts dae + Second in three theme ares of focus, @ Ổmove fomalsetofarangements between op
"roms, networks al he Tre Deparment Isncededto masinbe sneqgesỞagculeua ede an poles, services sheration, and dStfbuloniloutcomesaeorttel wih tide polices
+ Thin ashas been done hetwoen the Trnspor and Ascuure Untson the one hand and the rmends that working arrangements withthe aac Sector Department Vie-Presidency be essbteheltoighlghtteilerircbettee te nwo areas an ng the global dimension mạ
Ổfra and he ne foe beer integration of Ổrade and the nance, pate sector, and ae Feseuctre (FPS) wore program sespecaly vient in the wark on tr in semicss ỘGreater interaction berween the Taide De- ures salfspeciaesin len senses ad the subsector expertise in anspor, power, fiance telecoms ad soon tcated in FSS
nesdel
ỔRecommendation ẹ
Strengien Knowledge Menagement Ets
+ BS concerted ffor 10 ng all couney Ổcoo pt date oa hem atures aa applicaions diện PRITS) software would eahance thot the World Integrate Trade So- -warenessofthe loa re ses and hee Jpleauons forthe counts they Work t Ổwould as eae them wo supers {sssstants and consukants to seckunher esearch
triningifand when need
Trang 25ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
Anal andl adesory settles ỔNacan Economic Research Consortium ỔAca Region Sub-Sabaran Aca) ỔCental Ameria Free Trae Agreement
{Common Market for Easter and Southern Aca {Consumer price index
Development Economies
DECKG Developmen esearch Group
brio nis Diagaoste ade integration Study Depactment for International Development (UK) EAP "Bạt Asia and Paci Region
cA Europe and Cental Ai Region er Export Processing Zone
SAP Enhanced SioctoralAjstment Fait
Ess Envjconmentlly and Socially Sustainable Development rồi Foreign dict investment
rest Finance, Private Sector, ae Infastrutune Ổpe cer ỔGross domestic product Global economic prospects
re Internitional Rank for Reconstruction and Development Ds Internasonal Development Assocation
ike Independent Braation Geo
Áp út Integrated Framework for Tade-elated Technical Assance tnverntional Monetary Fund Lac Lani Amerca ant the Caribbean Region
inc Least developed county Mes Mult-bee Aangement
Mit Massichusetstntute of Technology MSA Mice ast and Nom Aiea Region NAETA North American Fre Tade Agreement Noo, Nongovernmental onginzaion NTa Ngntnlfbamter
Trang 26
ase Poverty Relicion Strategy Paper Pù, Private sector development on ra Regional trang arrangement Quantkatve seqerdon sal Steuctual adjustment loan SA Xanh Asia Region
SECAL Sector adjustment loan
Su Smal and medlum se enterprie: srs Sankary and phytosanitary standants TẠP Ổrae Assistance Evaluation
TN LUNGEAD Unite ations Conference on hae and Development Trade Negotation Commitee wor wor ỔWorld Bank insite World Development Report
wins wro Wor Integrated Trace Soto World Tade Organization 26CM, Zambia Consate Copper Mines
Trang 28ỔChapter: Evaluation Highlights
ỔWhile trade hashepedexpandthe have been uneven, global economy, th gains + The Bank has consbuted sancialy sessing ts potential cantibuontoaconomi d- to wade both intellectually and
opment
Trang 29
Introduction
economic growth, Greater volumes of trade among countries have FEE have long viewed international trade as an engine of overall partly fuelled the expansion of the global economy and increased Ổwealth for many ofits members, although the distribution of the gains has been unequal
ỘThe Hanke has supported the reform of rade poles andthe strengthening of tade-elated Fnatscions and infrastructure ni client Ổours Between Rael years 1987 and 2004, out 81 percent of total Bank commitments {or $38 billion) went 10 117 counties ta help them beter integrate tothe global economy This financing has been accompanied by age volume of analyieal work in the form of
fopecational economic and sector work humerous research publications on trade, and Ổworking papers on tade-related topes Ổhis pet also coincides with 2 workdnide cespansio of tre al de Hheeization i Ổdeveloping countries, Export romth has Ổoutpaced growth ia gross domestic product (GDP) ofer the past three decades, nd average tanifs have fallen steadily globally {gure 11) The Hank as both intend and heen influenced by these developments Append AT highlights key developments ia International tr bot inside al out the Hank over the past evo decades
Rationale forBank The Rank bas strongly
Involvement The a liane iw SPPOTEOM trade-related supported trade-relate
trade bas gone through Policies, institutions, and tee phases During the infrastructure
fi phase artngin the sas and etesing othe mi-19805), the Bank Insed ks involvement on the perceived Impartance oft reconomiegrowth anon the role of openness in enhancing a counteyỖs feronomle elfcency Important chanael beeen trade and growth were assumed! t0 Include improved resource allocauon fom "hangesin relate pce, stronger incentives for !daptaion and Innovation, cheaper caplal foods, and higher foreign dzect investment flows assorted! with new tre oppartuniis 2y increasing incentives and the profabity of exporting, Bank suppor for trade reform was Ổexpected to help expandand dversfyexponsby inpeoving what was then known asthe naling Ổenvironment (naw commian refer t athe
Trang 30Ộhenna ate igler to (simple arrest ý vẽ vn" + ` ttn Noth es m ỔSeen ne nf mine EE en
uring the second phase, from he mid Hạc 1990, the Bankes foes on wale diminish Aaa wrk ant (a esr ten lending were ese fom the st hse, The mont vider aapect of he Ciminntatention ore wn he mere of wo sae uns and an accompanying retin nee nme of working om tức teues TắcconcurerrclmlmanoEtbe Ceca unsure roan of 939 đopcned tri cpefs Hưuaghout the Inston salsetrnlsdseqperny 10 wodkúgxonndelele meaol 0
lcnlne ti li ly Bi trúc aqfles dương te eomlhdfd te 193 he ee ey she conser te an expe Ổste wok flowing he Dok Te inte in 39 hough wea, ators cy Since 2001, the Bank bas Voi 1%! operations viewed the multilateral tens Tate: Dep
trading system asa men in Juy 202
framework for clients to Ổomoesingunts om the
# eb for clients Development Econamics
achieve voi
infegrallon, Reneny Relacion and
Trang 311heinsituton chả nọt hoc formal state tuna recently During the 198, however, some Failentl research appears 10 have guided Ổoperational polices on rage iberazaton (nd ined, the Intlleeua envionment within the Han lọc tre reform) The Bankesponsored work of Bassi, Choks, Krueger, Michael Papageorgiou, and others outside the Bank payed an imponant role These ear studies noted the complesty of tade reform and preceding other rfrsin the presence of igh fala) They aso highlighted the eed tớ onside the fsa impiatons of tad liber Ổuation, and noted the importance of comple mentary policies (iminaion of price controls and regulations, financial potey reforms, bor tarot beralzation, infasieucture improve rents, and instconal reforms) to improve the of tade reform,
Prior to 2001, the ke documents provided Sategicand technical guidance on Hank ude policy advice The: are the 1987 World Development Report (indusirtaization and Foreign Trade), 41989 report on steengthening, teal pole, and the section on tre acs ment lending in Operational Duccve S402) ỘThe main py relorme embeded in these documents included replacing quantatve restcions with tarts a6 use Brst sage of tele Mberazstion, maintaining ow and Ổelatvely uniform ifs for easons of eiiency nd political economy, east exeange rites requleng lw station, sues ofthe economic costs of eisting policies aad evaluations ofthe fexpecte beneft of form improve dita on indicators and measures of nominal and fective protection, an srengthened capacty ff reforming counties t0 assess thelr own policies The World Development Report (ND) ho supported the increased use Of condiionaiy in teuctual adjustment lending {8 4 cstv for trade reform Operational Directive contained adtonal guidance that eventual nl levels were to range between Sane! 20 percent Current Hank objectvesin cade lest arte Inte in 4 2002 trade progress por) are
twofold, At the global VO formal strategy level, the Bank assumes givided! the Bank's trade role, Specialy e aims 07 in the 1980s anal to promote changes in 7990s,
te weld ting syste
to make It supportive of developmentỞ especially of the poorest of the developing Ổcountries and ofthe poor aerss the develop- Ing world A the country evel the Bunk als to promote integration dhough tr core spect of country development states, Objective ofthe Evaluation This evaluation assesses the effectiveness of the Banks assistance to client counties fe de between fiscal years 1987 and 200, based fon the Hank's stateies and objectives Ổembed the 1987 ND (and ter coded noD8.) and he 2002
true progress report
Ổrade anstance In ens octements provided comes refers to lending grzidance for reforms Ổoperations, analytical
Ổwo (researc aswell as economic and sector work SW), advocacy al capacity beg, fehl that are intended to enhance the envionment aad capabiaies of Hank eens to
bal economy? ỔCapturing the effectiveness of the Bank's trade work Is challenging for at least three reasons Fst, county contiions influence the feectinenes of trade reforms an asistance, Including macroeconomic environment, Ổndowntents, nomic ivestment climate factors (otabl insittions), governance and political economy dynamics, and istituonal "apc ison icu to dseeange td's Ổcontin fom these other determinants, ỔSecond, international eternal Factors aso Ífiucnce government attitudes coward tride ad governmentỖ abit
Tao potees THES study evaluates supportive of inde, fending and nontending Especially relevant ae assistance for trade commody price shocks: Jy anne comma Price 6006 fiscal years 198) country's paicpation cit 2004,
Trang 32
ân teBlotl, bfitenl, or muNhterd trưng arrangement ỘThin, othee ators, such 38 the pete sector, ltr and mulnert evelopment agencies, and nongovernmental oneinbations @RCOs), influence the pace and ature Of miờms `Ợ Evaluative qiaestioiis tẹlpmem elective ness of the Bank's examine the relevance Ổsssance on teats and effectiveness of Banke speitcally growth and trade assistance and its poverty reduction tn impact on growth and Ổhier ne lesion
poverty reduction Ổwo quesions:
+ Relevance of Bank assistance: Was the Hank's rade-reated asisance relevant 10 promoting improved nade and econome Ổcome Did be Bake do the rig bigs? Speci examples incidewhetherthe ase Sspoed an sequencing sorte conditional ere appropriate, ad of wae reforms al to whatextont these inputs were grounded a
teen did Banka ave an support take ey enteral tors uch s multe ade eration, mister! insitations rls, Indus county polices, and theese of -onatism) ito account Was the HankỖstrade support accompanied by appropiate andre fran conplemenrary policy and instiutiona reformsin the coun? anksasssance on take ửocuson porcny and what extent the Aistibutional outcomes?
+ ecveness supported pnerentonsepectve of Bank eektsne: ii ane epetent fn achieving ther stated objectioee Dil he ỔBank doting righ? Specie questions in tude whether Banksuppoted interventions facet re reforms What asthe impact lof Bank rade asitance on specie outcomes Ổuh as prteton por A logical framework Nhenlaton,cxhon up Tinking Banke inputs to 08 response, and eo- Ổomic roa What were outcomes underpins toe eee sụt
evaluation cones inthe moe nent
peo, ithe Rank succeed in integrating tren County Assbtance Statepes!
This reports timely for reasons One i that no comprehensive and independent fone since the ear 1998 The second reison trae sues: th colunton s intend 0 shed some ight on where ogo from here
Conceptual Framework and Methodology The conceptual fumemork underpinning the eratuation bulls on a logical framework ofthe links berween Bank actions (npurs), desired (igure 1.2.and Appendix A2 provide iyseraive Indicators.Ợ The main desied immediate bntcome ofthe Hank's suppor fortade (based fn an analysis of project documents) is volumes, faster export growth rates a more Ổieee basket of exports cheaper and more readily arate imports, and greater inte: tion inthe global economy The underving assumption behind these objectives (en expt stated) Is chat expanded trae wll onenbute 1 achieving the Banks overarching oul of poverty reduction into wayeỞby Fontabuting 10 economic growth and by eating bs (bad 1997, 1995) The says analysis takes place athe projet, county, ane soba levels
fests includes an Independent Evaluation Group GEG) portotio review, background Papers, lmerlewx with key stakeholders, surveys, and countey case studies and desk Fesiews "In addition, it draws om the textensveIrerture om trade sss published inside and outside the Bank Finally 35 appropriate, i draws on rele IEG reviews sich as those of Global Public Goods GEG 20048), the Investment Cimate (IBG 20046), 8nd Lines of Creit (IEG 2005) "The study has sx chapters i ie with the resuks-based approach outlined sbove (Chapter 1 compases an nteoducton to the scope objective andonganiztion ofthe repr,
Trang 33`
Ổaie admen earns an ese eng wo SW ply oie Tec asin ample adept Sessrsdakeory
ey Aste Seas
Ccompetiveness Instone Capac
Ổonesies Pagar
Nast inneniogries asp tet ices ỘTalsredlo tmiuim< Ổning ne ive ices (csuns sana)
Shorr ams carts
Inset ring Ộic ovr, newer anes as parser
Improves Tee Pertormance ỞỞ` Insel maa es igs rie oy
Inset xs ast pow ate Fein rence rr eprcmgiti
esr rot Pasnyeacim
while Chapter 2 lý tslevs the Ikerature ỘThe next theee chapters focus on apts, fouputs, and outcomes Specialy Chapter 3 Ổamines the puts wend, and evolution of Banke assistance im tad, while Chapwer 4
Trang 34(Chaptor2: Evaluation
ighlights
+ Despite log-trm benefits ram ad, 3d lberalaiolx Ổten conraves + Thelteraturehas tenets rom trade razon, exendedth factors thathalp maximize the + Design of ade reform, complamentary poles, gvoaraphy, in each county,
Trang 35
Lessons from the
Literature
policies on country economic performance concludes that although trade offers long-term benefits for developing countries, trade liberal ization alone is not sufficient for economic growth,
Te literature generated by the debate on the effect of trate and related Rather thas become clea that maximiving world, The studs were Earby multicountry seade and welfie outcomes depends on the Infueatal in promotes studies promoted policies for expore development, the design path 10) more ipl
and sequencing of trade policies, external economic growin? Path fo more rapid outward orientation as a Consiesints aad opportunities, and comple- Despite the potential growth, mentary poles that contribute ro the overall benefits from trước
Ổoutcome of trae iberlzaton,togetherwith s controversial in some circlesỢ Fis, ice Summary of the lessoas fom previous HEG assert that these polis led to instances of ỔThe objective Is ẹ provide context for the ng n severe tansonalcoss of adjustment evaluation ofthe Bank's approach to tide.Ỗ reflected in increased poverty, denote ỔThe chapter partly deaws on Oyelide 2004) ton, and jo fs
and she hteratuee suey in Append 1 Trae Policy Reform and revolves around design Despite the expected sues Cates ave ht penefits, trade '$ second catlsm Economic Growth the Hank recommends
ỔThe frst multicounty studies af developing the same programs for l*beralization és often counutes tae regimes (Le, Sciovaky and all counties, king too Controversial
Trang 36Process may differ from benladon by using
tethoo theory Stent fate sehemes
ỘThi, contrast tothe "frst bestỢ wok Ổhae uadderpins trade theory the ỘeaỢ world has several deviations that ace kely 0 influence the outcome of unilateral trade Heraizaton, Frotetionsm in industri nt other developing ountfes the ase of exion als, and unanticipated polucal events ace Just three factors that can result in unanl puted outcomes Thesefore, some observers have ercize the Bank for not taking these factors nto account The expected benefits from trade may not bie filly realize in the short rum for sever
+ Inappropriate macroeconomic polices, such as incomplete sain, resting in m- teactonay Racal or monetary policies tht squeeze out et fom the pate sector and rede the entry f ew firms, Olea lô sỹ:
pretation ofthe realexchange te thereby + NMeingcumpienenary(eo-slel'tehlie borer) policies and neidddons tờ sugbor
Estercxpo oth, such a customs ie of law qualy and standards, ad tide logs! + tnwacien ornate ssn capital lake aanage ofemerging opportuni that
aie fom the iberaation
+ Estat constants nich 35 market aces Beyond these points on impereee teade ealvations, there are questions about the ik Deineen tee eelocm and economic growth, ỔTre econometric erence on the inks betscen tile reform, economic growth, and trade eslormance renulas mised W has proven Ổical to vse the cross-sectional ppc t0 festablish causaliy and ta ken the le of The econometric links such as geography and between trade reform Ổsiston elements
particular, the vert is
and growth are often su ou on the mehuve
inconclusive imponance ofeaeh for
Reseatchers continue 49 extend existing imethorllogies to explore the links beeween tee reform anil growth They have focused fm refining the measurement of Ộopenness and on incosporating adional economic variables that influence whether trade liberal Fanon rests in aerelersted economic growth, an, ifso, the extent of thisinfience By eats Fring the years when non-eversed trace eralzation progeams were launched and using panel repression techniques, Wace and Welch (2008 id hat, on average, out, Investment and openness sntease ater ade heotalon Others have focused on the role of uiitional coustrrspecitic factors, sul 36 Institutions (Rode, Subramanian, and Tebbi 2004; Freund and Bolaky 2004) and comple Ổmentary fees (Chang, Kalin nd Loagza Ổopenness tote (and investment) increases access to new techology eahancesecsency bby making market seratures more compet: tive allowing the expotation of economies of seal: an by spur inoration ina tad of 98 countees, Bae (1998) ids that total factor productoty growth is ster in more Ổpen economies Subseeent workin this are has supported ehis finding shout 2008 Chơi sind Harigan 2003 Ami and Konings 2005) De Melo (2105) documents how the Bank's research in this area has contabuted to tablshing the microeconomic channels at "he fm and seer levels through which ce Ổpenness contributes to economic growth, Boling on enterprise an census sures in Ổmanufacturing, Bank eeseaeehcontebuted 10 tstablshing the beneficial impact of "import (lselpIne" on pricing and peaductsty gains studies have complemented fmevel studies by establishing the links among a variety of factors research and development tade, foreign dizcce Investment [FOI], and embod in
Trang 37there are areas of common ground Few fn counties ise grown Ổipl and reduced povery by following a longterm auesdae approach As note in Panag (2004), nether Rode (1999) aor Sughtz 2002), celes ofthe Hank's approach to trade Herston disp the benefits countries can gan by opening up theirecononies, Researchers on bath des of the ise a ineeasingh agree on theimporance of ouatey speci and of insti ia dsetan
ing the poses hae trade ae growth, Ộable 21 (and Appendix Bl) summarizes the rain lessoas from the Beerature oa the impact fof the undething macroeconomic environ: ment, poliies for export development, he siga and sequencing af trade policies, Ổexternal constants and opportunites, and complementary polices on trie outcomes
Lessons from Past IEG Evaluations
Previous IEG terete eatations forse fon agricukure (IEG 19962), industnal sector and polis (IEG 1991b, 1995), aspeets fade Ộajusmnene lending (IEG 19913, 19939) xocal Impact of lending (IEG 1997, 199), and ude inteastructare IEG 19960)" These are Ổsummarized in Appendix B The main teide-relted conclusions and recommendations of those sus wee:
+ The tank pid inadequate attention to the
re of selective pro- With respect to design, motion In export de- yhere is consensus on the selpnen.trwoald be NO Hee ng 0Ạ of macro, exchange panlorterhnologydec 7⁄46, ditd ComjDlemieHar-! elopeteal, improved policies, but less
infomatonabout et oowonmiues marỘ recicnt on abe role of tọc đế 2e on the role of
cxpons and bor Selective and industrial Ổening + Reduce trade cont sonality t few key ables thi woul Be policies
+ Achiwe marossonomic saBđụxdon before trae brazen and beer coordinate Sd ee refoms tanger concen than the tes)
+ Greatrimeinalcompettion Ổent ceregulton fom becoming anton ned pre pete
+ HenfyỞpopattion soups negately af Findings from previous feted rade webms OFD ratings of trade-
rtase mane ante neat related activit ane
sa onsen
Soe mt macro stabilization as a
Trang 38
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een ee aye sell nena te macnn lye bay Ổchon ratte sald pes sins Stoners nine pets gems mts ie i Do Dasa and ds 3
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Trang 40Chapter 3: Evaluation Hi
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