the_environmental future emerging challenges and opportunities for epa potx

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NOTICE

Thức eo was produced by dhe Nadonal Advisory Council for Envizonmental Policy and “Technology (NACEPT}, an independent federal advisory committee providing extramural poicy advice roche Adminiseator ofthe US Envizonmental Protection Agency {EPA} NACEPT provides, balanced and expereasicssments of policy matters related o the environmental programs of the United States, ls operation is supported by the EPA The Council consued with many EPA offices while developing this eport The contents of úy report and it commendations do not necessary represent the views and policies of EPA, nor of other federal goveenmeat agencies, nor docs the mention of trade names, companies, oF conimercial products consticue a recommendation of endorsement for use

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Letter to the Administrator

September 19, 2002

The Honorable Christine Tedd Whitonan Adouinisrator US, Environmental Protection Agency 1200 Pennsybvania Avenue, NW ‘Wihingron, DC 20460

ear Governor Whixman:

The National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEP'I spas co present vo vou our most recent report, The Friramnntal Funes Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for EPA, Thủ repo elects the evolving sategic role that EPA envisioned for dhe Counel in March 2000,

Poligrmakers coo seldom have the opporunicy to contemplate long-term or emerging environmental challenges Fucus analyse the art and ecience of antcipaing ascent environmental sts, can facilitate EPA® proactive planning to preven potential prebleens ruher chan responding afer the fcr This epare reviews EPA’ ctentfaruies analysis capability and recommends that more be done to support environmental fovesight prograns In addition, the ceport offers a framework to analyze the awvironmental implications of trends in world poplation and demographics, natura resources, science and technology, information management and acces, economics aud ‘commerce and polis and soc evolution The report conchades with general and specific secommendacions for how FPA can best adavess these changing conditions

The tnhinkable events ofthe past yea emind us cag, along, wich securing on borders, our nation needs secure its natural reources and environmental legacy Concerted efforts 10 improve environmental foresight will help EPA secure the nation’s ‘ital esources and help EPA remain a global leader in applying innovative and elective saletions co camnples enironsmental problems,

NACEPT appreciates this opportunity to advise che BPA and lols forward to-3 response from you and the progeam offices affected by these recommendations The ‘Council ls looks forward to an ongoing dialogue with EPA as it continues ts role as strategic and Visionary counselor

(tl Tran

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NACEPT Members Tectia Asn Leta Emre Aas Nemec Dr Jon Salas Dape of Chen gine Poles tite a Bheebum, VÀ Me Richa Snie? Anita Disc af Reach nd Deelopoent Menopstian Wise Recs Diss ‘Che I TosnXner ‘Coit i Evin Resch

Envi ‘Schol ofPabc Heke Hest So Talne Univeriy Heal Sciences Caner ‘New Oe, LA

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EPA STAFF MANAGERS Ms: Sonin Aes — Enviar] Mergent ‘fice ofthe Adminstanoe Me fee G, Redmond Jc 1 Cooperate ‘Office the Adminaoe al Ma US Evin Preson Agency Me Man ose

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

‘We wish w acknowledge the many individals who generously contributed their ine alent and expertise in developing this report

First, che National Advisory Council for Envitonmeoeal Policy and Technology (NACEPT) is deeply indetned vo che ticles efforts of che Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup members nho devoted couruless hours co meetings, teleconferences, and revisions of this report The Workgroup displayed a remarkable eprit de cops and commitment to the work, We express our deep grande and appreciation co Linda Hinon for chaiing the Workgroup, and Richard Sustich for his leading soe in shaping,

and competing the repor

‘We wish wo thank the EPA program offices tha suppored tis work, with special recognition to Anita Steet and Michael Brody from dhe Office of che Chief Financial Officer (OCFO), who generously shared dheie resources, expertise and enrbusiasm,

‘Through OCEO, NACI

PT was able to tap ino the expertise of Robert Olson, a is and Rexesech Diceeor fom the Insite for Aernative Fares, who helped us fame ont ‘ideas and acculae our vision Special hanks loco Renlle Rae ofthe Ofice of Air and Radiation (OAR) who coordinated and Fciltted the Group Wate exercise, and to aay Pascual of the Office of Reseirch and Development (ORD), who provided invaluable expertise and crewive ideas for eslaboration berwsen EDA and NCEP

A nove of gratitude to the EPA stall who provided comments on the report indloding Ed Bends, Michael Binder, Dennis Cunningham, Amy Haseltine, Jobn argu, John Mason, Joha Moses, Pasky Pascual, Renlle Rae, Jeremy’ Schrefl, Paccia Scot, Ravi Srivascava, Doreen String Ania Sees, Bryan- Wood Thoms, Chris Trpa

and Jim Vickery We also wish co thank members of the public for thei input In panicula, Peer Reesoarki (Aumy Environmental Policy laine), Toy Sele People for Ethical Treatment of Animal), and Mike Pague (Ground Water Protection Coun

Thế tenchant comment dhmolaneoudy broadened ou horizon and focused ont

ebare, and, in dhe end, strengthened the teporr and recommendations Thanks, ls, 10

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Andy Schwart, fiom Industrial Economies, Inc, for his suppore organising and Finally we ate indebted ro Gordon Schiser, she Acting Director ofthe Ofice of Caspersdte Environmental Management (CEM) and his stall at EPA ‘This repore would ot have been possible without the uniaging effors of Sonia Alded, the Designated Federal Officer for dhe Emeiging Tiends and Issues Workgroup Sowias pewinence,eeavityand pasion toward hee work spare onthe Werkgroup, even in its mow tgíng bouts, A heaufelt shanks, also, goes to Peter Rednoad, the NACEPT Designated Federal Officer who inilly faceted: Workgroup mestngs, bue later overs the work ofthe Council, Peter and Sonia both played xtc cles in she final

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(Our nations approach to environmental protection ths been largely reactive Environmental laws, nsivucons and regulations have been created in sespoase to exsing cnvizonmental and public healdh sheets Policymakers rarely have the opportunity £0 contemplate long tem or emerging environmental challenges Fatuees analysis, the art ‘co preven potential problems, eather than espondig ater the fer

The National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy snd “Technology (NACEPT) was asked by the U.S Enviroamental Protection Agency (EPA) Adoiniscratorto play a mo sraegi and visionary advisory role in March of 2000 In response, NACEPT agieed co review and recommend environmental forsighe methods, and to ides emerging trends and sues elvan co EPA in the neat five to ten yeas

Understanding the environmental consequences of nure socal economic and technological changes can help EPA make bexterinformed and more strategic decisions

This report recommends a compeehensve, continuous and insiutional ures sanning proces to identify emerging rend and issues Ie also identities emerging opportunities {or EPA ant describes the fatures analysis amework developed by NACEPT to explore beyond the horizon

NACEPT recommends char the Adbinistaror of EPA and her senior lederhip champion che use of environmental foresight methods, While some EPA offices have made notable progiess, more can be done to insivuionalice futures analysis ito Ageny

side strargic planning processes This wil require the dedication af saff and sesources

fo make environmental foresight an EPA priority This repore identifies several overarching proposis te improve EPAS ability vo antiipare and addbess emerging environmental challenges These include dhe following:

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In idendffing the mos significant emerging challenges and opportunities for EPA, NACEPT creued a freight famewode which divides homan activities inc six boa hemes for analysis, These themes include: World Population and Demographics, Natural Resources, Science and Technology: Information Management and Acces, Economies and Commerce, and Plies and Socal Evoluron The report analyaes eich of hese themes and provides an overview of emerging developments ended Forecast and Content Iealso describes the Desire State ofthe fare andl the Oppornt for EPA to ‘move forward The oppoctnitis are formal recommendations for the EPA

Administator and the Agency's senior leadership,

This report divides Oppornunito for BPA imo immediate, wnid-term and lòng texm categories A summacy of dhe recommendations ca be found on page 59 ofthis report The NACEDT Council recognizes shar this long lise of recommendations represents snapshot of emerging sues for EPA to proatvely and sategially address NACEPT looks forward to consnuing is wodk with the Administrator and the EPA

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The Environmental Future:

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for EPA

A Report of the National Advisory Council for

Environmental Policy and Technology

SECTION |

INTRODUCTION

In March 2600, che Adminstrator ofthe US Environmental Procection Agency EDAD asked the National Advisory Counel for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) to play moce step and visionary role in advising EPA [nits fons 10 incorporate this new eesponsibiley NACEPT embarked on a joutney that explored

strategie planning cols with a focus on environmental foresight Specifics

ACEPT assessment ofthese challenges and thie implications for EPA

[NACEPT isa federal advisory committee dhac counsels the EPA Administrator on a broad cange of domestic and international environmental policy, rchaology, and

management issu, The Council is balanced panel of outside experts who represent diverse ites fiom academia, non-govemmental organizations (NGOS), busines, indus sete, eribal an local governments ‘To address the Adiministaror’s chase, a subsee of the Council organized as the Emerging Tiends and Isues Workgroup ‘Workgroup merabers met with leading facuriss, consulted with EPA program offices, reviewed fortes analysis poceses and developed this epoe through numerous meetings and conference cil The Workgroup periodically reported its progress to the fill

Council and submitted draft recommendations for discussion and modification, ‘This

final eepor is che Council's response ro dhe Administrators request

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‘Our Environmental Security

[No one sw ir coming and vo one predicted the horeor The events of September 11, 2001 and che subsoquene war on errrins have toned the nation’ focus ta homeland security and the work of disabling imerntionalerrorist organizations These events have permanently changed the way America does busines and should seve at cation ell or

Americans concerned with protecting our natural resources and our environmental legacy ve learned one thing (rom chose event, i the vale oF loking ahead ~ a concerted effort ac improving environmental foresight can help EPA secure the nation’s vital Like many feral agencies, EPA will play critical roe in our nations war on terrorism, One important role EPA can play involves the increased wee of environmental faresight EPA should continue ta asess the sae of our nation’s environment, to research and identify environmental stesors and to implement a national strategy caddies those suesors Bur co elfectively carey out this con, EPA will need eo look increasingly futher into the fare to anticipate challenges and ta identify opportunities for environmental improvement and securige This Fore sisioning dhould be ronal, ongoing “aiming of the radac” The purpose ofthis sepore i ro shave che ke and ecommendations from NACEDT's own fie can ofthe radar

Environmental Surprise and Foresight

Ecologist CS Holling coined che tem “environmental surprise” 10 reler to

vironmental phenomena in which realy departs qualitatively from expectations Recent history i veplece with examples ofthese usancipated envivonmental evens the Aepltion ofthe ozone layer by chloretluococarbons the devastating biological elects of DIE, thalidomide, and other chemicals the nuclear dissser at Chemobyl and the

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In the pas, envitonmental laws institutions and regulations were create in esponse co exiting envimnmental nd public health ects Furuse chdronmendl protection efforts must sek co ancipate emerging teas Indeed, moceenviconmental surprises le ahead as human numbers grow; economic oupuc expands, globalization and trhanization continue, and ew technologies emerge Some events will be ihereaty ‘unpredictable, bur the are many'othets chat ean be anticipated and asesed, and dei negative effets vitgated or forestall

{mn ics 1995 report, Beyond she Horizon, the EPA Scionce Advisory Board (SAB) challeaged EPA ‘co begin ta antcipare furure environmental problems, and then take steps to avoid chem, not jst respond to them afer the fac.” While EPA has nor fll

uldeesed the SAB challenge, there bas been some notable progiess Innovative cnvirannvental foresight efore are underway in the Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO), the Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (ORIA), che Office of Reseach and Development (ORD), she Office of International Afiis (OIA), the Ofie of Prevention Pesticides, and Toxic Substances (OPP

Managing for Results Steering, Group, led by OCFO, is examining ays wo inegeare Sucures analysis imo statepic planning, Also, OCFO established a Fasuey Network, a rong oF EPA staff and managers who have srargic planning responsibilities or inceest jn furures analysis, In 2001, OCKO twice sponsored the Fadenal Futures Practitioners Rowrdtable, a forum for Federal agency foresight and Rates professionals Sail, shese fous have yer 10 esl in sigificanr changes ro Agency-wide starege planning and priosiy seeing

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SECTION II IMPROVING EPA'S ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT In its charge, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and ably 0

Technology (NACEI'T) was asked to reconimend a proces to enhance EPA

density emerging ends and issues, Tobe effective, this process must be compiehensive, Comprehensive means exploring all drivers and srends that can impact EPAS

scan the horizon in all directions, The organization of “themes” deed below is one

Famework for a comprehensive ride

Coninuons means a process thar more than single snapshors i howd be an

ongeing longtcam process ‘The tends and issues identi in cis document muse be sewed as evernplary and FPA should understand Ut these way be conscandy changing cor shifing

Finally, by isteutiona, we mean thot the process must be made a long-term sciviy across EPA, This will equte the dedication of tal and resources Ââ monitor fre eends and present analyses co senior leadeisip on a Fequent basis, Mos importane, the Administrator andl the Agency mus prioritize environmental focsight ane fuzres analysis make it reality

planning to avoid problems, rather chan afer che fact esponses ‘To implemen a fuures process, EPA should lz all the mjor elements of sound futures analysis Ik mst inclade such methodological elements as: lceraure scanning Delphi expe pandls

ficquent extraction and prioritization of issues, and analysis and selecion of issues

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relevant to EPSS mision, NACEPT can and should serve asa valuable resource for several ofthe actives in this process Howeves, PA needs ro dedicate internal vesounees to make she process ily elferve

Tapeforming dhe tas tha edt this report, NACEPTT followed regimen that included some ofthe core methods for sound futurist work ‘The Emerging Tiends and Insies Workgioup assigned individual members with panicular expertise the tsk of identifying msjor areas that impace EPAS mission, Brainstorming sions on thematic, cxginizationa, and concepral senctres ofisuesfllowed the inital generation of ideas The Woskgioup engaged in a consensus building exercise with the use of Groupware software ~thisis akin to Delphi echnigues for consensus bung ~to abs relevance fe ssuesand eas Inthe Faure if NACEPT advises an EPA “fuss i,” a more formal process for ideniving ends and consequences will need to be adopted The ‘Workgroups efor, to dat, ina good sar

The Workgroup idenciied several ways of improving EPA’ ability to anime

and address emerging environmental problems They iucude:

© Suppose the ongoing work of the EPA Fxswey Newwort, which includes palticpants from sepional and headquarters offices, who have seatgic planning responsibilities or interest in environmental foresight

methods of environmental scanning, scenario development, modeling and arher methodologies for environmental Foesigh

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leadership Develop stindard proceduces for thang and in sting the Finngs of thes efforts, hor avo Forcing agreement on any single image afthe Rưum

© Incorporate Faces analysts into staegic planing, Scanning senatos, and osherfovsigh methodologies need to be inegtted into the formal planning process The EPA strategic plan isa major step forward, but ie sill lacks a forwasd-hiaking approach, Ic helps EPA prioritize the problems of roday bur gives inde or no attention ro whae romoriow’s problems willbe and how they might be prevented or mitigated by the Agency: Envitonmental foresight tools can help EPA discover new

technologies to supporea peoblem-prevensing approach,

© Bvaluave curren prograns and environsienal protectin activites tha could provide warning ~ of be positioned to avoid the occurrence or riigate the impact of unlikely bur eatastrophic evens ích ae terotx auacks, disease epidemics, loss of a keystone species, or unexpected

consequences of echnological advances, te

© Develop a workforce beter able to assess emerging challenges and equipped with skills andl competencies thar wil be needed in che Route EPA is already moving in the diction of hiring people with multiple points of expertise, rather hat specials in a nattow Geld Te needs 0

hiring and promoting people witha wide breadth of knowledge and cra

discipline experince Bercee environmental foesighe squires analysts and managers wh are ablero take abroad cow-media perspective and see connections across prablem domains i dacphines

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© Regularly sample the opinions of broad ex of knowledgeable ouside experts 1 enhance crosefetlizaion of idea Reach out to diferent secrors not eypicily involved in vepulation activities, such as chose involved in research and developmene on leading-edge technologies and

indusal processes

$ Suppore more wors at the edges (and across ) of conceprual and problem areas Encourage the siững - and rigowous evaluation - of unconventional and “ales” views

© Continuously seive co make management systems more adaprive ‘Organizational theory suggests that internal openness, active links co 3 wide sange of outside parties and maleholder culture that rewseds ‘continuous learning, and seuctural leabiiy, make organizations better able eo deal with supe

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SECTION II

EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

In developing its own views of the most imporeant emerging challenges and epporuniiet far the U.S Enviranmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) suave to achieve 8 comprehensive and global pespective To ensure that its own scanning process was

‘comprehensive, NACEPT divided human activites into six broad dhemes for analysis

World Population and Oemographies Natura Resources

Science and Technology

Information Management and Access Economics and Commerce

Politics and Social Evolution

‘he bulls ofthis report deals with ax analysis of each ofthese themes, including: an overview of emerging developments ented Forecast and Contest, a descition of the Desired State that NACEPT believes is facilitative of best environmental management and sustainable Roture, and the Opportmites hat exist for EPA co help forward by the NACEPT Council for consideration by the Adminisratoe and EAS

leadership, The Simmmary of Recommendations sesion of the report eitegorives these

ecamenendations by EPA abil’ wo implement they the shor, medium and long

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WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS Forecast and Context

The same underlying driving forces impact all global environmental iswses population, level of consumption, and choice of technologies While managing population growth is not part of EPAS mandate, its acivities, both domestic and inuermational, can have a caclyte impact on population dymamics, economic activity and consumer behavior, and can contebue co significant reductions in both total global and per capita environmental impacts

Te rte of world popalation growl has declined from a peak oF 2.1 percent per year in the early 1960% co 1.3 percent today.’ Even a thie seduced rate, total global population size will continue to increase substantially for several decades because the prom is occuring rom seh Lange ats, Beowoer now and the year 2025, population istikely to increase as much a ie dd Grom she beginning of human history to World War Ie By then, the world is expected to have nessly 8 billion people, Almost all ofthis trom will occur in developing nations in Asi, Mica and Lain Amesca, wich mast of the new population living in urban ares The global urban population ie projected co increase fom 2.6 bili in 1995 t0 aver 45 billion in 2025,

Rapid population growth, unprecedented ates of urbanization, and the proliferation of megacties wich populations exceeding 10 million wil challenge che management capabilites of many developing nations Growth will pur enormous presses on ater supplies, agrcularal ois, Forests, and other renewable reson ‘While the average age of populations in che Third World ie falling, longer life spans ia rch of the Westen industri word ate lading se

increased demands on natal resuroes a aging population and Problems of water and sie polluion, and disposal of sewage and solid wastes, wil inevitably be severe in rapidly expanding urban agglomerations Environmental

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conditions incur, influence health Poor environmental quality is already estimated © be diel responsible for abou 25 percent ofall prevenabl il eal inthe world today, with đanhea and se resptaory infections heading the ls

The problems are not rattcted to areas beyond! our borders For example,

Southeast Flora, near the seasicive Bverghes ecosystem, is already showing

evvonmental sues associated with rapidly expanding utban ates The University of Flora estimates thatthe populations of Miami-Dade, Broward and Pal Beach Counties wl increase by more chan 2 milion fiom the ensea eels of approximately 5 milion

One challenge tele ro population giowt stands our Fowl others fering swtinable development atthe globule, while seri needed economic expansion in the xui man sơ The i now widespread agzeement that sustainable development isthe key to stabilizing populacion growth Since che 1994 Inemarional Confeence on Topulation and Development in Csi a global consensus has emerged thatthe best seduce poverty and increase the availabilty of education and health cave

Sussinable development is also ese for reducing socil unrest and the dang ‘epidly expanding numbers of restless young people living in poverty withour oppornities foc improvement Constane exposure co global media images of fluent iEsgles and ieolagjes that preach hatred againse America increase hele hopelesness and ange

Development is essen, bur development along the pattern of che pas is imposible, If bilions more peopl ey to move toward US per capita rats of fsil fuel

consumption, resource ns, snd waste generation i would be envizananentally disastrous

and fundamentally unsustainable, Asa resul, he United Staces has special seponsiMiig to help create anew mode for development one with minimal environmental impacts ‘Asa world leader and the langese consumer ofthe wold esses, the United States has the capaci and responsibilyt0 help other nations prec the environment Pioneering, new approaches to sustainable development and sharing new environmental technology

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Desired State

and investment in education and health eae

© Environmental impact per unit of Gross Nacional Product (GNP) are reduced sharply by enviconmentally superior technologies and development strategies chat simultaneously mee basic human nec and protec the envionment

Opportunities for EPA

Elevate EPA's International Role To da s effectively, EPA needs 19

hive the ability to provide credible information on she long

population grow, nationally, as well international: EPA should selece and analyze population data to help decision-makers understand the impacts

Raise Awareness of the Importance of Sustainable evelopment When interacting with other pars of the federal government, rise sswarencs of che importance of achieving rapid, sustainable development in poor nitions

sth high poplaion growth res

lead by example, encouraging sustainable development a home,

scm implcstions of

® the greates extent possible, che United States mst,

_

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Support Global Sustainable Development Networks Is cooperation with the United Nations Enviconment Programme (UNEP) and other inresnasional organizations, provide suppore for global nerworks of Thied Would development experts, envitonmental protection officials, urban planners, and environments

Facilitate Export of Environmentally Superior Technologies Halp simulare and organize incer-governmencl effors to export easizanmentlly superior technologies and environmental managenent methods thar ceduce impacts of population growth, Revitalize the Environmental Trade Wosk Group (TWO), composed of 19 agency heads, which was eablshed 10 organize move efetive rade promotion in exporting envionment rechnologis The ETWG is co-chaired by EPA and the Department of Commerce and is a subgroup of the Tiade Promotion

Coordination Commitee (IPCC)

Bull Relationships with Developing Countries EDA ollces cuceatly work wih ster aes in diferear pars of che word Explore what would be needed 10 rarger this coverage more effectively Esablish an “Envirocorps” — an énvionmencal protection ac diferent areas of environmental technology at tained and paid co work in developing sations EPA and the Peace Corps ean collaborate more

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NATURAL RESOURCES

Environmental isues arse primarily around the use of narucal cesources, Including energy, water, land, food, and wildlife The principles for managing natural resources in a sustainable way ae similar actos all hese areas Key peinciplesindude Efficiency Decrsssecavironmestal inypacts per unit of gross national prodact (GNP) by using nana resouroes more efficiently Increasing resource efficiency is virtually synonymous with curing waste because pollucion tepresencs wasted materials being selesed ito the environment

Industrial Ecology Lking naruto model our techoical systems, close the loops of aerial flows by reusing or reconfiguring the material oupute ofeach process nto inpcs fo other purposes

Appropriate Use of Renewable Resources With the exception of ener, are closed ‘These systems have no external sounces ro cepenih raw material supplies Emphsice the use of renewable esoess chat nature will continue t9 provide and replenish indefinicely Keep renewable resource ase at, oF below, the maximum

sustainable yield ro mainnin the seek from which the fw of eesources detives,

Social WelkBeing In king decisions abou sounces of energy water supplies, fod, and other important asus, sive ro understand whae approach will most likely Improve the social well-being of everyone, especially thse who have suffered injustices poverty and other baciers vo achieving their potential

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Sustainable Development Use nstarsl esousces in a way that meets today's ‘needs withour degrading those rexouces and making it dificule fr fut generations to beneficial for economic development, the environment, and social welk-being Only

#oluians that work on all hie levels wl ead to dhe kind of Ruse se wane 10 crete NATURAL RESOURCES - ENERGY

Forecast and Context

The word is or facing an energy supply crisis, bur eather an eneigy management problem, The Unied States alone has col seserves that could last fr cenuties and, more importantly abundant solar ration wil be arilable for billions of years "The primary lullenge today is energy management: 10 eeduce che carbon intensity of the enesgy

economy and r felitate che conversion to tenewable sources and bytlogen sorage Decatbonietion is necesary to Ft environmental impacts, from mali-polhuant sic conissions to global climate change The key barie to decatbonization is not economic or technological ~ ic isthe lingering misconception cha carbon emission limits ead co 3 reduction in economic growth, The evidence is conclusive tha eatbon and economic coepur ca be decoupled

Increasing energy efficiency isthe fates and cheapest decarbonitatin steep In the United States, producing one unit of gros domestic product (GDP) requires less than one BÑh se ch eeEỹ as itd ewo centuries ago” Jus bewween 1975 and 1986, increasing eneiy efficiency mate it posible forthe GDP to grow by 39 peeen vi se, om in energy consumption." “Thanks to advancing technology, mach larger ~ and highly peotable ~ opporsaniies ate avaiable for increasing efficiency funet

Changing energy sources constates dhe her pricipal decarhoninaion step

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Coal released one-fifth to one-tenth of the carbon per unit of energy of the vond Ít <lsplaced as dhe dominant fos fuel” By che 1960, a lower carbon and move portable fossil fuel ol, cisplaced coal asthe dominant energy source, marking the second wave of deerbenizsdoa." Now, natural gas, the cleanest fos fl, whose combustion releases

the Teast carbon dioside, is ascending coward a dominant role Decabosization is arguably the wos: Fundamental rend inthe evolution of che energy’ system."

[Now a fourth wave of carbonization may be appearing on the horizon with the

emergence of hydioge

fiom natural ps and possibly from le len coal technology, hydeogen will evenly be produced by spliting water imo hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy Moving toward a hydogen economy would tend to rake the energy system away Gom lauge sete genescing technologies toward ersual wsilitier composed af networks of snicroturbines, solar cell, fuel cells, and other micropower technologies ‘This covionmenally niga image of che energy fut s being alvocited by leaders of some

of che world lugest energy companies, sch as Royal Durch Shell, which has crated Shell Hydeogen, and BP which now stands for “Beyond Petroleum,

Desired State

lunging ney sousces

$ Renewable energy is ulimately che primary enesgy source, forming the brass for a completely carbonic, cenewable hydrogen economy

ased energy technologies, such a fe cells, Inially derived

dđũdeoy and

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and socially Opportunities for EPA

Encourage Total Accounting of Energy Technologies Voste: objective, rigorous comparstive analyses of the fill range of costs and benefits associated with expanding che use of diferent eneigy technologies, Bring energy elicieney improvements inta the comparative analyse, along with the fll range af energy supply options, The analyses should look st cradlexo-grave and imtegencntiondl costs and

benef, including impacts on nar systems, human heal and social well-being The assessments should consider dhe implications diferent options would have if they were adopted, not only in che United Sets, bue ab by developing nations Some aspects of this activity can appropriately be done within EPA, Much of c would be best done ia

cooperative relationships with otber agencies and leading research insticutons Utilize the Clean

Act State Implementation Plans (SIPs) Process to Spur Investment in Renewables and Energy Efficiency ‘Won partnership with the Deparmenc of Energy (DOE) co aggressively bresk through the Datvicrs chac inhibit fill eredicing of nergy efficiency and seoewable energy technologies in SIPs IF EPA filly ces energy ficiency and renewable energy programs in SIPs more capital would be channeled ito technologies shat can decubonize dhe enesgy system over he long nn, aswell as produce immediaeeeductions

na viác vale of sir emissions

Partner with the DOE on the New Freedom Car Project The xảminieoxian recently announced a new program co develop and promote hydrogen fst

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Support Innovative Research on Sequestering Carbon Dioxide A sumber of inwovative concepts for using Fossil fuels seth minimum have sggesed the posbilty of reforming natural gas into hydrogen at the wellhead and revinjecting he carbon dioxide produced in this process into che geological foraation fiom which the gas was taken EPA should scan far other ianovaive sequestarion

concepts and ensute thatthe receive artention in ather agencies and che private sector Expand the Energy Star Program Fxpand the highly succes and

comt-ffective Energy Star program to other sectors, ch a8 grocery stres and the health coe nduscy Parner with DOE to develop energy efcieney programs slevan 10 these

Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program ‘he cowsep of geen labeling foe vehicles hasbeen developed and dscused in the Green Vehicle Guide (EPA Mobile Sources) Puting this concept into practice would give consumers better

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Promote Market-Oriented Measures for Reducing Global Warming Wishin the executive branch and in interactions with Congress, promore the adoption of market-oriented policy measures that reduce global warming by increasing energy efficiency

Encourage Research on Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier sedi, Ensue tha environmental sues related ro hydrogen ae densified athe for nd, so that potential problems ate avoided and an appropriate feral regulatory cole is

developed (e-., Dass for Environment in fuel cll production, fuel ell recycling and

disposal

en

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Use Publicly Owned Sewage Plants to Demonstrate Hydrogen Technologies Crewe deoorsation projects with major weave sources, sich as publidy owned wastewater ramenc plaats (sewage plans), 10 demonstrate methane-e-hyogen conversion and che wse of hydrogen sechnologes {greenhouse gas, Many use this methane far heating digestion proces units daring winter sone, but 80 percent of mote may be Mate ofF in summer, Converting methane to hydrogen would allow these plants co generate a substansial amoune of dheir own

lectcity on-site year-cound,

NATURAL RESOURCES ~ WATER Forecast and Context

Water i the worlds most important neural resource, Tes esenial for human and ecosystems heath and fr the production ofall eosytem goods and services is thế primary pur toagrcutuce and dhe most widely used esourceininduserial processes It has aesthetic, cultural and recreational value Irisalo the acura resource where the most Toda; 2 billion people lve in wacer-stessed counties whee there ae growing conics berween diferent users of watee!” Of this group 7 bilon live in areas af rea amount of water availble ro meet peoples basic need Inthe ques for more wate,

many ofche major aquifers around the world are being deained strates that exceed thee

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Jsmoc scarce, its often contaminated Globally only about 10 perene of all wastewater groundwater 8 well as suefice water, is being contaminaed and rising se levels from lobal warming shreaen further contamination As populations and economies rom, water use om the pactetn of ehe past will prove unsustainable and “water eficieney” wil become as important a concept as energy efficieny

The United Sete, asa whole, doesnot yee face widespread, serious water shortage problems However the watning signs are clears che massive Opallala aquifer has been severely depleted, Great Lakes water levis area cei lowest levels in decades, he be sustained over the lòng tem, and rapid urbanization of sural and previously undeveloped regions fe Las Veg) i proceeding withour consideration of water supply conceens, Disruptions in the hydrological cyle due to globol warming or other meteorological factors may make drought conditions mote common over the decades ahead, and he increased draw down of aquifers may Tinie developmenrin soe seas and force major agricultural management changes in others Moreover, dhe draw down of deep aquifers brings water with higher sak concenestions to the surface, potentially exposing cioplands ro duse-bow! vulnerable Major water managerene issues alseady Disputes over water management are taking place in the aid Sourhwest and lsewhere in the United States Georgia, Alsbam an! Florida have been fighng fr years vero sver systems that give lf o the Southeast I 1997, dey decided 1 foe an Jnersrate compact develop an agreement on how the iver should be used But die hee yeas five extensions and a least $20 millon, there’ no agreement in sight

Much of the nation’s infrascucture for drinking water wastewater, and stounwater is aging Increased demand on public water systems, caused by a rowing population, will make ie lifcule wo maintain potable water quay sandawds, Many

system managers are nor budgeting for, aor do hey have salcien access to funds, 10

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make che investmencs in infastructare maineenance that ar ikely co be necessary In sgiedlaue,ek ofaesnentin idfgaian iniaestetue is cung growing problems of unnecessary watt lo Bom canal leakage, ifleacon, and salinization, New investments are requited in “precision apiculate systems that apply only as much water (and other inpucs) as needed, when needed, Water subsidies that coneibure to excessive and wasel se magoifyexpendinues needed fr infasuscuce

Despite significaneimprovemiens in water quale, one-Fth of freshwater fish stocks ace sill considered vulnerable oF endangered because of pollution oF habitat disruption." Peshaps she miose serous problem is groundwater contamition by nitrates, pesticides, petrochemicals, chovinated solvent, raioative waxes, alteter and heavy metal Groundwater tha becomes polhted testo xay polled fora ver long time the average residence ime for rouncdwateris 1.400 years, a opposed to 16 days for

Ta the United Stax

water contamination Gon point sources has decreased <ramaciclly over dhe 30-year lie of she Federal Water Plluion Contol Act Addessing food audiives and pesticides, will require wacersbed-based approaches that include all contiburors: ditional pone sourees, as well as non-pone sources, inching agriculture, silviculture, airborne deposition, and srormater runoff enovations willbe needed in énvizonmenclly advanced agriculture, loselloop production and consumpcion systems,

and green chemin to eliminate the se of persistent ric chemicals Desired State

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Develop a Holistic Approach to Water and the Environment Create water tsk force with representatives from several offices in EDA, other federal agencies, and extemal stakeholders to take a more bolic loo at water policy and che vironment deny major watersheds across the countey fr specific improvement Examine a broad range of sues, from aquifer depletion and contamination co water Txamine potential environmental implications of major water policy options Make recommendations forthe integration of water quay objectives at fren level into single coherene pace

‘While these hasbeen significan proges in adopting» more holistic approach ro

nHnsging water resources over the list decade, existing satory authorities make ie

đe co can programs on a watered basis EPA's Office of Wace is working co bester imegare le authorities under the Clean Water Ac andthe Safe Drinking Water Act

Integrate Water Efficiency with Water Quality Standards Iegrate waterus efficiency and appropriace reuse into water guilty standards and other cavironmental regulations A number of current regulatory progtams are based on achieving technical sandards measured by concenation of polluauts per unit of wares Increased water flcincy goals conflict with these concenttation-bued seulaory

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Support an Effective Market Environment to Minimize Generating Hazardous Wastes Sic ysrcen of US haradous liquid waste 44 billion ines of solves, heary metals and radioactive materials is injected into deep goundwater around the country by means of injection well, EPA should assess

opportunities to eliminate generating all hazardous waste through pollution

plevention/sonrc reduction (P2) and though reprocessing) seuse: identify che rena, regulatory and economic barriers to P2 and reuse: and encourage a market environment in whic ches benefcil prasices become the peelexed business option

Redouble Efforts to Effectively Include Nor-Foint Sources in Water Management Programs Labaice EPA capicy 1 moditor, model and coviconmencal degradation Develop beter models for estimating averse heh and policymakers about the value of non-pointsouee mitigion and vo mobilize paiial and

technical suppor for federal, state, and local effort wo adres the problem, NATURAL RESOURCES -

BIODIVERSITY, LAND AND FOOD Forecast and Context

Biedivenio, and and food are deeply imerswined resource iss, Habit loss and degeaation ae he leading causes of declining biodiversity, affecting 85 perens of all threatened spevies." The leading case of habitat Toss is conversion of land for low ensiy urban development, agriculture, and forest plantations The other leading eases of declining biodivesicy are invasive species and polluon, premasily ftom agieuhtonl

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A generation ago, some scents looking athe loss of wens, sanforests and be biologically ịd are (Eued chat che rral numberof species could be cut by 25 0 50 percent within a generation or exo ~ the greatest decline in biodiversity since the cataclysmic end of the age ofthe dinosaurs, While some fl sedies suggest that species ake more resilient chan oviginally though.” other vee studies soggese thacelimace change may pose major new teas ro biodiversity Rates of gJobal wating may exceed the migration capabilites of many species, and progressive shits in climatic conditions will ease loses of exiting habita and reductions in habitat pace sic

Land consersation which encourages greer densiry in whan and suburban dlselopmeat is one of the most important requirements for preserving biodvesicy More duscered development seduces che ene ftp of ana population ‘This i Jmporane everywhere, but especialy crcl in areas ke Southeastern Fed around the sensitive Everglades ecmytem where the population is projected to increase by 1.8 million berseen 2000 and 2920." Closeed development lo maintains the recharge rate of| roundvater aquifers, which seduce by impervious unm surfices Urianinfill and high density development paveens go hand-in-hand with establishing green spaces thi are off limes ro development and buying Jad for parks and open space co protect wildlife

Limi gvban sprawl can also protect prime agicueual lind For example, in Californias Cental Valley where the population is expected to triple by 2040, coplind losses could be cut by 55 percent simply by building 15 vesdensal units per here, instead of dhe more typical 7 units A denser uchan envionment alo faites the use of mass transit stves money on construction and upkeep of infeastncture of many kinds provides lower income people easier aces o jabs, and tends to promote a greater seme

The spread of exotic species of plans, animals and diseases js now second only 0 habicar loss aa cause of declining biodiersiyy and ecological destucion, “The slow migadon of species inno new habitus has always been a part of warure, bu the lobalzaion of commerce and travel has acelerted his process so desticaly chat ie deserves to be considered a new phenomenon in the history of life Bioimaon by

invasive species noeds ro be ested at a major new challenge, at importane as vepulaing

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Reducing pollution, especially the agriculcural runoff from erosion, over Fevilization, and heay use of pesticides, i the orer major eequitenent for preserving biowivesicy One of the cuest challenges ahead is developing an environmen

uvanced agriculture chat pus together the most envionmmencally sound and productive methods from many different areas iaclading: conventional industial agricole, sgticuewal biorechnology meddon agielane, integrated pest management, organic

farming, and ecological engineering, Desired State

© Land is conserved and sed efficiently through wba infil, combined with the recycling of land and increasing mass ceansi-oricnted development patems (eg, brownfields development, smart growth imidslws, ae),

© Green spaces are preserved and made off Himits 10 development Infrastructure cortidors are used in envconmentally beneficial ways © Movements of invasive species are tacked and quickly controled © Envieonmentlly advanced agtcultual methods ae developed and widely

sloped

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Develop Biodiversity Indicators Use biativesiy a» primary indicator of ecological healdh, Work with the academic community and other stakeholders to develop bindiverscy indicators fr different ecosystems, and utilize ehese indicators in seting ecological health objectives and in developing ecosystem

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Develop Natural Resource Damage Assessment as a Management Tool ˆ kmyloy cost accounting concepis developed for the Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDA) and used in esablshing Superiund liabilies for other purposes within EPA Use these concepts preventatively~ as management tools in

cavironmental planing and permiting — sot je for remediation ater damage i done

Expand Efforts to Control Invasive Species Sisificanly expand RPAS efforts and coordination with other agencies «@ monitor and control she inrodvetion of non-native of invasive species For example, explore possible joint enforcement opportunities with the states, pore authorities and the Coast Guard in restricting point-source discharge of water ballst released by ships Explore potential soles elaced to land-based invasives, an area where EPA is now doing virally nothing Play a leadership role on this isue in the National Invasive Species Council and the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, whieh was create by the emironmenta

side accord to the Noh American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),

Develop Natural Resource Partnerships Continue 10 develop parcnerchips and support cles wich sare Departments of Natural Resources (DNR) other federal agencies, tribes, local government agencies, commerce and industry, and non-governmental organieaions, EDA hàn not chen lui aửtantgg of eppurtunid tô work with these enciies, but they ate the organizations with the most hande-on

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responsibilities for protecting wildlife and biodiversity: Local and ational non-prfie land conservation a lind tease groups have helped proveer more than 23 nillion aces of land and water in the Uniced Srates EPA should encouage the ransfer of technolog

and innovations to ches and other groups to Fclitate better desision-making,

Sponsor Research on Benefits and Costs of Higher Density Development Sponsor tesarch on the compartite costs and benefits of more development Look at ligeye economic costs and environmental impacts Identify the cost accounting fctors that ave favored fringe development (6 no ecing he BÍ costs Lup font, tax and other polices thac subsidize development on the inge) Include in his

analysis a discussion of non-traditional pollo, ie, noise and light

Use SEPs to Encourage Land Conservation Up the we of Supplemental Environmental Projets (SEPA) 0 encourage environniental partnerships for land preservation in urban areas A SEP isan exsironmental project that violator of énsizonmencal regulations agrees co perform as part ofthe selement ofan enforcement action, Although the vilaor is no legally required to pefoem a SER the monetary Penal impose on he violator wll typically be reduced if the voltor agrees to pefomm

an acceptable project Eavitonmental Restoration and Protection, one of the main

caegatis of acceptable SEDs allows for purchasing land for conservation puogsams Study Impacts of Sea Level Rise \nivite and coordinate an iteragency cxaminacion of the impacts of sa level de on U.S shorelines, wedands, and other

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