GDP VIETNAM FULL 150120

"Some factors affecting Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the period of 2000 - 2018" ACKNOWLEDGMENT First of all, I would like to express my thanks and gratefulness to my supervisor ……………… Her kindly support and continuous advices went through the process of completion of my thesis Her/ His encouragement and comments had significantly enriched and improved my work Without her/ his motivation and instructions, the thesis would have been impossible to be done effectively I would like to state my thanks to ……… where supported me to pursuing and completing my thesis My special thanks approve to my mom for her endless love, care and have most assistances and motivation me for the whole of my life I also would like to explain my thanks to ………… for their support and care me all the time As last, my deeply thanks come to all my friends during time I study in ………… University Their kindly help, care, motivation gave me strength and lift me up all the trouble for the rest of my life ……………………… ……………………… Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify factors affect GDP growth in Vietnam from 2000 to 2018 Design/ methodology/ approach: By using VAR model and granger causality, the research model should be able to forecast GDP growth of Vietnam Findings: The research found the relationship between variables that interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, and Government spending have a negative relationship with GDP growth Research limitations: First, there are other factors which affect to GDP growth, they are both internal and external factors In this research, the author chose variables to process research model, so maybe they are not representative to show the correct results Second, the author chose the period from 2000 to 2018 and the data by quarterly which collected as secondary data Maybe the data is not enough to show up the full period of time Practical implications: The research expressed the full image of GDP growth in 19 years Originality/ value: This indicates that the modal should be applicable on other countries of interest Keywords: GDP growth, GDP, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, Government spending LIST OF TABLE Table 1: Annual GDP and Inflation rate from 2000-2018 Table 2: Inflation from 2000-2019 Table 3: Government Spending from 2000 to 2018 Table 4: Vietnam Interest rate 2000-2019 Table 5: Statistics description Table 6: The output form unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Table 7: The output form unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) of transformed data Table 8: Correlation Matrix Table 9: Granger causality test LIST OF FIGURE Figure 1: Research framework Figure 2: GDP growth forecasts in Asia area Figure 3: Vietnam GDP and CPI from 2010 to 2018 Figure 4: Proportion of 2018 (%) Total value of GDP: 5,535.3 trillion VND Figure 5: GDP per capita/ Annual GDP Vietnam from 2000 to 2018 Figure 6: Inflation from 2000 to 2019 Figure 7: Vietnam - Government spending, percent of GDP from 2000 to 2018 Figure 8: Vietnam Interest Rate 2000-2018 Figure 9: Exchange Rate from 2000-2018 TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research problem 1.2 Research questions 1.3 Objective of research 1.4 Significance of research 1.5 Scope of research 1.6 Research structure CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical literature 2.1.1 GDP 2.1.1.1 Definition 2.1.1.2 Significance of GDP 2.1.1.3 Limitation of GDP 2.1.2 Vietnam is a developing country 2.1.3 Factors affect to GDP 2.2 Literature review 2.2.1 Related studies 2.2.2 Summarize 2.2.3 Conceptual framework CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Research method 3.2 Data collection 3.3 Research model 3.4 Hypothesis CHAPTER 4: RESULTS OF RESEARCH 4.1 Overview of economic in Vietnam 4.2 Results 4.3 Discussion CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION and PROPOSAL 5.1 Conclusion 5.2 Proposal 5.3 Limitations of the research REFERENCE CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.6 Research problem Gross domestic product (GDP) is a baseline indicator reflecting economic growth, economic size, per capita economic development level, economic structure and changes in price levels both of a nation (Henderson, 2012) Therefore, GDP is an important and appropriate tool commonly used in the world to survey development and change in the national economy Accurate and rational use of this indicator is important in surveying and assessing the status of sustainable, rhythmic and comprehensive development of the economy Any country would like to maintain a growing economy with monetary stability and employment for the population where GDP is one of the concrete signals for government efforts Therefore, studying the trend of GDP growth, factors affecting GDP can help the government to change policies to achieve the goals set to promote economic growth These are the macro issues that everyone, who works in the economic field, is interested in Some other important issues to consider may include fluctuations in the field of petroleum, commodity exports will indirectly affect Vietnam's economic growth In addition, the trend of FDI inflows to withdraw from emerging markets, global businesses collecting capital in key markets require Vietnam's economy to accelerate institutional reforms Particularly, the Vietnamese business community also faces the risk of backwardness in applied technologies in management, production and business, etc., if it is not ready to participate in the industrial revolution 4.0 In order for the Vietnamese economy as well as businesses to develop sustainably, socio-economic and environmental factors need to be ensured Currently, Vietnam has low labor productivity in the region, low competitiveness , but this also shows that the geography of Vietnam's reform is still large and this is the key for the development of the economy in Vietnam Therefore, the key to promote the development is the spiritual and institutional reform of the Government that must become the behavior of each management agency to promote the growth of the economy The first problem is solving the problem of business conditions and creating favorable investment environment Next is to ensure the business community has access to resources such as support policies, finance, and land to serve development needs and promote national economic growth; while ensuring fair competition among the business community Therefore, the writer chose the topic: "Some factors affecting Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the period of 2000 - 2018" 1.7 Objective of research Objectives of this thesis are as follows: - Comprehensive and complete assessment of the factors affecting Vietnam's GDP growth (interest rate, exchange rate, government spending and inflation) from 2000 to 2018 by quarterly Propose solutions to improve the factors with low contribution rate in GDP, and continue promoting the strengths of the economy 1.8 Research questions This research is carried with the expectation to find answers for three main questions listed herein below: - What are the determining factors affecting GDP growth in Vietnam? - How is the impact of factors affecting GDP growth in Vietnam from 2000 to 2018? - Based on the research results, what are the proposals to improve the GDP growth in Vietnam in the future? 1.9 Significance of research First of all, economic growth is a decisive condition to promote the economic development of the country and the region All economies are required to achieve and maintain a certain level of growth to ensure the development of the economy If the current growth rate of 7-8% is maintained, after 10 years the size of GDP will double according to rule 70 GDP is an important factor in economic growth, allowing solving social problems By maintaining a high economic growth rate, the increase in the amount of GDP or GNP creates the infrastructure for the government to set and implement social policies and programs aimed at improving the living standards for people, hunger eradication and poverty reduction, health development, education, rural agriculture development, social evils Third, stabilizing GDP will lead to sustainable growth that will contribute to environmental protection The exploitation and use of natural resources such as land, water, petroleum minerals and the formation and development of industrial parks and urbanization are carried out in a reasonable and effective manner Not only increasing the scale and maintaining that scale increase over time but also contributing to environmental protection On the other hand, when economic growth is fast, creating a physical premise to better protect the environment when the financial resources are invested to find new technologies, clean technologies, regeneration, etc Fourth, growth is the basis for the development of education and science and technology In the process of growth, education and technology are extremely important factors to promote the physical premise for the development of education and science and technology based on the results of economic growth With such important issues, economic growth is always a top concern of economists and policy makers With the desire to learn about the factors affecting GDP - this important economic indicator, our team has chosen the following topic: Studying the impact of factors on Vietnam's GDP growth period 2000 - 2018 1.10 Scope of research Primary data and secondary data were collected to use in the research First, primary data has been defined as ‘the information obtained first hand by the researcher on the variables of interest for the specific purpose of the study’ (Sekaran & Bougie, 2010) Collecting primary data helps bring valuable information close to the truth (Burn & Bush, 2010; Walliman, 2010), though that takes quite a bit of time The more accurate the information, the more time and cost it can take An additional source of information to compile is the articles, magazines, reports and books This is a source of information collected and disseminated to help validate the research information in the article as well as aggregated data from the questionnaire survey This source of information helps the author draw up the strengths and weaknesses of previous studies, help the article avoid shortcomings and find new points that no one has mentioned before, from which the research question will be addressed The study was further clarified with the results of the primary data analysis The time for conducting the study is from 2000 to 2018 The research subjects are the GDP growth, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, and Government spending in Vietnam The research scope is organized in the area of Vietnam 1.6 Research structure With the mentioned objectives and the desire to get the meanings after analyzing the importance of GDP and researching factors affect GDP growth, the study comprises chapters that present the appropriate problems: Chapter 1: Introduction The matters determined in the chapter consist of background, objectives, significance, research questions, and scope Chapter 2: Literature Review Two important parts of the chapters are definitions of key terms in the title and review of the previous studies Chapter 3: Methodology The methods to research are introduced with elements, techniques and research process Chapter 4: Results and Discussion From the methods described in chapter and performed, the results are collected and considered their role in the study Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendations In addition to the findings and conclusions, some recommendations are also suggested for further research and evaluation CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical literature 2.1.1 GDP Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/VNM/vietnam/inflation-rate-cpi The state budget deficit compared to the average GDP in the 2000-2018 period was 5.5% The state budget deficit is used in accordance with the requirements of the State Budget Law, only for development investment, not for regular spending The state budget deficit in 2015 was 226 trillion dong, equivalent to 5% of GDP, down 0.3% of GDP compared to 2014 The state budget deficit in 2016 was 254.0 trillion dong, equivalent to 4.95% of GDP The state budget deficit in 2017 was 3.5% of GDP, down 1.45% of GDP compared to 2016, of which the central budget deficit was 3.38% of GDP, the state budget deficit was 0.12% of GDP In general, Vietnam's public debt indicators in the period of 2000 - 2018 are still within the permitted level, but the indices are increasing over the years, especially the public debt to GDP ratio is approaching the limit of 65% This shows that the issue of public debt management is becoming a problem for Vietnam in the coming period While in the next years, the public debt to GDP ratio remained high (63.6% in 2016 and 62.6% in 2017, respectively); Government debt to GDP ratio also reached 52.6% and 51.8% respectively Figure 7: Vietnam - Government spending, percent of GDP from 2000 to 2018 Source: The Global Economy| The World Bank Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency 358592.00 325803.97 358592.00 3164.00 2000 - 2018 VND Billion Yearly Table 3: Government Spending from 2000 to 2018 Source: The Trading Economics Interest Rate in Vietnam is expected to be 6.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Vietnam to stand at 5.50 in 12 months time In the long-term, the Vietnam Interest Rate is projected to trend around 5.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency 6.00 6.00 15.00 4.80 2000 - 2019 percent Daily Table 4: Vietnam Interest rate 2000-2019 Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/interest-rate Figure 8: Vietnam Interest Rate 2000-2018 Source : TradingEconomics.com| The State Bank of Vietnam Vietnam's exchange rate against the US dollar averaged 23,161,962 (VND / USD) in December 2019, compared to 23,143,462 VND / USD of the previous month Vietnam's exchange rate against the USD data is updated monthly, available from January 1983 to December 2019 Data reached an all-time high of 23,161,962 in December 2019 and a record low of 0.976 in May 1983 CEIC calculates the average monthly exchange rate against the US dollar from the average daily exchange rate The State Bank of Vietnam provides the average exchange rate against the USD The exchange rate against the USD before August 2004 originated from the International Monetary Fund Figure 9: Exchange Rate from 2000-2018 Source: CEICDATA 4.2 Results Government Index medium Greatest value Smallest value Standard GDP (%) 6.56% 7.80% 5.20% 0.2542 Inflation Exchange Interest (%) rate (%) rate (%) 6.63% 23.12% -1.71% 0.562 6.02% 18.45% 3.34% 0.425 6.60% 15% 4.80% 0.682 Spending percent GDP (%) 6.20% 358592 bill 3164 bill 0.6285 of deviation Asymmetric coefficient Kurtosis Probability -0.1545 -0.0351 -0.05345 -0.0346 -0.0348 2.45424 2.8745 2.3425 2.84256 2.652 0.8628 0.7234 0.6347 0.8872 2.7672 2.8457 76 76 0.6772 value Sum of squares 2.452 Number of 76 observations Table 5: Statistics description 2.5656 76 76 Tests are used to check the distribution of variables Based on the results of Eviews, the probabilities for all variables are greater than 0.05 (5% significance level), so all variables have a normal distribution Variables Probability Result Constant 1.00 Non-stationary Inflation 0.024 Stationary Interest rate 0.235 Non-stationary Exchange rate 0.341 Non-stationary Government Spending 1.00 Non-stationary Table 6: The output form unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Variables Probability Result Constant 0.014 Stationary Inflation 0.000 Stationary Interest rate 0.000 Stationary Exchange rate 0.000 Stationary Government Spending 0.000 Stationary Table 7: The output form unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) of transformed data Result from second differences root test is shown at above table All variable is below 5% level that had been chose and it means all the variables is stationary and can proceed with other analysis β1 β2 β3 β4 β1 1.0000 β2 0.5458 1.0000 β3 -0.6732 0.1356 1.0000 β4 0.4545 -0.3575 -0.1347 1.0000 β5 -0.5722 0.6825 0.8355 0.6824 β5 1.0000 Table 8: Correlation Matrix From the above correlation matrix, it shows that there are negative relationship between GDP and Inflation, and between GDP and Exchange rate And there are positive relationship between GDP and Interest rate, and between GDP and Government Spending Therefore, the hypothesizes are as follows: H1 Interest rate has a positive relationship with GDP H2 Exchange rate has a negative relationship with GDP H3 Government Spending has a positive relationship with GDP H4 Inflation rate has a negative relationship with GDP Granger causality test is used to test reciprocal relationships in pairs of variables together The following table shows the relationship between pairs of variables: Hypothesis GDP has a causal effect on Interest rate Number of observations 76 F - value Probability 3.6248 0.0354 Interest rate has a causal effect on GDP GDP has a causal effect on Exchange rate effect on GDP GDP has a causal effect on a causal effect on GDP GDP has a causal effect on Inflation has a causal effect 2.4582 0.0285 0.2455 0.8243 5.2523 0.0252 1.4572 0.8681 1.5731 0.0252 0.0545 0.6724 76 Government Spending has Inflation 0.7957 76 Exchange rate has a causal Government Spending 0.5723 76 on GDP Table 9: Granger causality test From the table above, there is a one-way causality from GDP to Exchange rate, but there is no causality from Exchange rate to GDP at the 5% significance level The remaining pairs of variables have two-way impact relationship with each other 4.3 Discussion The impact of government consumption spending on economic growth is still a subject of debate On the one hand, government consumption spending has a positive impact on economic growth through the implementation of law enforcement functions, the provision of public goods and services, and market support services to create positive externalities that increase the labor productivity of the economy On the other hand, this is also a factor that hinders economic growth due to the negative effects of taxes, borrowing or inefficiency In order to assess the impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth for the ASEAN-5 group of countries, the research has developed an economic growth model based on the Ram model (1986) and real Currently quantitative analysis on the model is built The results show that, in the period of 1990, 2012, government consumption spending had a positive impact on economic growth and thus contributed to the economic growth of the group of ASEAN countries -5 in this period The model has initially shown the importance of the size of government spending as a determinant of the impact of government spending on economic growth Assessing the optimal size of government spending will be the direction for further studies CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION and PROPOSAL 5.1 Conclusion The world witnessed many changes in Q1 / 2019 Although economic growth has been sustained at a moderate level, the US and China economies have become more precarious due to both internal problems and trade tensions between the two countries Meanwhile, the European economy is more uncertain due to the pressure of Brexit negotiation as well as other intra-regional divisions The highest growth still belongs to ASEAN group However, the rift of major economic links in the world has been and will cause much instability for this group of countries, including Vietnam, especially in trade and globalization Vietnam's economic growth in Q1 was at 6.79% (yoy), lower than the growth rate of the same period last year (7.45%) The growth rate of some industries showed signs of slowing down It is noteworthy that the sharp decline of the PMI index to its lowest level in the past three years in February 2019 due to the decline in employment and inventories has reduced the level of optimism of manufacturers Growth of the economy continues to depend on FDI and exports of this sector while equitization of state-owned enterprises continues to stand still In Q1, there were 43.5 thousand enterprises registered to establish or re-operate, but there were also 14.8 thousand enterprises suspended operation (up 20.8%, yoy); 15.3 thousand enterprises waited for dissolution and 4.1 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures (up 23.9%, yoy) This shows that Vietnamese enterprises are still weak and the business environment needs to be further improved Inflation in the first quarter of 2019, though moderate, has tended to increase before the recent adjustments in electricity and petrol prices The impact of these shocks on domestic prices can last for many months to come, requiring careful management from the State Bank on the growth of money and credit growth in the near future In term of relationship of GDP and interest rate, the study conducted by (Saracoglu & Lanyi, 1983), proved that, there is a positive relationship between the level of interest rate and the real GDP It is shows that if the interest rate increase, the real GDP also will increase However, there is no research study shows that interest rate is directly correlated to the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In addition, other research used interest rate as an indirect variable This research study conducted to find the correlation between the interest rate and GDP level There are several studies conduct by researchers prove that there is relationship between government spending and GDP According to (Abdullah, 2000), government spending is one of the causes for economic growth It had been proven by the exertion of government spending give a positive result towards the increase of economic growth The year 2018 closes with pride on special achievements in Vietnam's economic development Accordingly, economic growth reached 7.08% - the highest growth rate in the past 11 years, becoming one of the countries with the highest growth rate in the region and the world This comes from processing and manufacturing with a growth rate of 12.98% as well as the highest growth rate of agriculture in the period of 20122018, reaching 3.76% In addition, the foreign sector also set a new record with a total import and export turnover of over US $ 482 billion accompanied by a trade surplus of US $ 7.2 billion, an increase of 147% compared to 2017 Notably, the Southern region State book reached a remarkable milestone when Vietnam exceeded the budget revenue for the first time compared with the estimate of 3.5 billion USD Moreover, these growth figures are generated by a stable macroeconomic foundation with 3-year continuous low-level inflation stabilizing below 4% Clearly, the business environment has shown many positive signs Specifically, the results of the survey of business trends in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 of the General Statistics Office showed that 85.1% of businesses rated the trend as better and stable Besides, the PMI reached 56.6 points in November, the highest among ASEAN countries; The sustainable development index in 2018 increased by 11 places, ranking 57/176 countries However, weaving in the brilliant economic picture of 2018 still has certain dark areas Accordingly, the third quarter of 2018 witnessed the economic slowdown, and in the fourth quarter of 2018, it reached 7.31% but was lower than the same period in 2017 Notably, the capital industries created momentum For the recent period of 2015, such as telephones, electronics and construction have no longer maintained the impressive speed as 2016-2017 accompanied with the mining industry to continue a negative growth time series In addition, the service sector grew lower than in 2017, in which the real estate service's low growth was consistent with the slowdown of construction industry growth With the above foundations, macroeconomic growth is forecasted to grow by 6.8% -6.9% in 2019 According to the team's calculations, from 2008 (the year that Vietnam The country has a GDP per capita of US $ 1,070 and becomes a middle-income country), if the average GDP growth of 7% / year, Vietnam needs 40.5 years to move to a highincome country (According to the definition of the World Bank, a country that is trapped for 42 years and cannot surpass the average income per capita from 1,000 USD - 10,000 USD / year is considered to be in the middle income trap.) 5.2 Proposal - Strengthening operational management mechanisms and accountability The policy of increasing autonomy and socialization lies in an ambitious reform roadmap that has potential to bring many benefits to the people, but the implementation process is still challenging In the coming time, it is necessary to: (1) Ensure the compatibility between fee increase, service price and increase of service quality; (2) Develop systematically the quality assessment standards for each type of service; (3) Transparency of revenues from all sources and expenditures, accountability for collection of charges, service prices, and association of charges and prices with service quality; (4) Develop and strengthen internal audits and continually improve management - Strengthen supervision and audit of state auditing agencies In the coming time, the SAV should continue to increase the coverage and quality of annual audits, through: (1) Paying more attention to strengthening the method and capacity of auditing performance; (2) Harmonizing audit standards of SAV with international standards (ISSAI); (3) A full assessment of competency-based workforce needs, including an analysis of the expected task (number and type of audits), as well as the required capacity and number of personnel at each level, as a basis for recruitment, staff training and the ability to outsource / supplement resources from private auditing firms if necessary - Improve management information system The Government has made great efforts in building management information systems to support public financial management activities, in which the construction and operation of the Treasury and Budget Management Information System ( TABMIS) has resulted in major improvements in the accuracy, timeliness and transparency of budget reporting However, access to databases nationwide is still limited, mainly in the system of financial and treasury agencies, the connection to centralized databases of the country as well as Ministries and localities are still slow, not support ministries and localities to improve the quality of analysis and supervision of the implementation, effectiveness and efficiency of spending policies and investment projects especially in the current high-level context Therefore, it is necessary to: (1) Strengthen information systems for managing budgets, assets, liabilities on the basis of a common platform and standards, ensuring the ability to summarize and meet management needs the Government's principles, supervision of the National Assembly, as well as sharing with businesses and people; (2) Facilitate all ministries, localities and agencies to have full, direct, convenient and regular access to the public expenditure database obtained from the TABMIS system Paying attention to attracting multinational corporations to invest in large projects, high technology, superstructure, creating a change in restructuring, promoting supporting industries and creating conditions for domestic businesses to develop At the state level, it is socio-political stability, good international relations, clear and transparent legal framework, and stable direction; rapid management mechanism, policy mechanisms, reasonable macro management tools, including bank interest rates, exchange rates, which promote export and import restrictions Enhancing competitiveness at the enterprise level is the ability to constantly improve production and business efficiency, quickly grasp the situation of supply and demand (both quantity and quality) in the world market in both production and business The products and services are competitive, first of all at the low prices, high quality, designs, and packaging suitable to the tastes of consumers being widely marketed 5.3 Limitations of the research Readers should have in mind that the limitations of the forecasts are mainly due to data availability that gives the model a relatively short data sample to work with Another limitation arises from the fact that forecasting is not an exact science; there are no precise models or rules to follow Also important to stress is that with the current financial crisis, central banks and other forecasting institutes release new and updated forecasts whenever there is new information available, which changes the outcome of their forecasts Therefore when comparing the computed forecast results with that of other forecasting institutions, the comparisons are made at the time at which the data were collected, and therefore exclude forecasts from central banks after the data has been gathered It is possible to add some more variables to the model to increase the suitability of the model, but doing so will make the model more complex, possibly with more defects that make it difficult to test REFERENCE Jonathan Pincus (2011) Developing in the long term Fullbright Economic Teaching Program General Statistics Office of Vietnam Economic and social situation of Vietnam Monthly statistical information Nguyen Anh Tru (2018) Determinants affecting economic growth: the case of Vietnam International journal of business and economics, vol.3, no.1, 2018, pp.1-11 Tran Vo Hung Son, and Chau Van Thanh (1998) Analysis of the sources of economic growth of Vietnam CAS Discussion paper no 21 Vietnam Government Vietnam’s socio-economic development strategy for the period of 2011-2020 Alex Reuben Kira (2013) The 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due to digitalization BoF Economics Review 21 B.F Giannetti, F Agostinho, and D Huisingh (2015) A Review of limitation of GDP and alternative indices to monitor human wellbeing and to manage eco-system functionality Journal of Cleaner Production, vol 87, pp.11-25 ... in Asia area Figure 3: Vietnam GDP and CPI from 2010 to 2018 Figure 4: Proportion of 2018 (%) Total value of GDP: 5,535.3 trillion VND Figure 5: GDP per capita/ Annual GDP Vietnam from 2000 to... GDP growth in Vietnam? - How is the impact of factors affecting GDP growth in Vietnam from 2000 to 2018? - Based on the research results, what are the proposals to improve the GDP growth in Vietnam. .. Total value of GDP: 5,535.3 trillion VND Source: WB, & General Statistics Office Figure 5: GDP per capita/ Annual GDP Vietnam from 2000 to 2018 Source: countryeconomy.com /gdp/ vietnam The annual