Microeconomics: Optimization, Experiments, and Behavior John P. Burkett OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Microeconomics This page intentionally left blank Microeconomics Optimization, Experiments, and Behavior John P. Burkett 2006 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2006 by Oxford University Press Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Burkett, John P. Microeconomics : optimization, experiments, and behavior / John P. Burkett p. cm. ISBN-13 978-0-19-518962-9 ISBN 0-19-518962-0 1. Microeconomics. I. Title. HB172.B875 2006 338.5—dc22 2005051286 987654321 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper For Bojana, Keith, and Nicholas. This page intentionally left blank Preface A modern introduction to microeconomics should, in my opinion, (1) convey a sense of how microeconomics has developed in response to a changing array of practical problems and anomalies; (2) maintain a clear distinction between normative and positive theories; (3) integrate findings of behavioral and experimental economics; (4) cover recent, as well as classic, works; (5) feature clear and concise exposition; (6) move from simple, concrete applications to more difficult and abstract ones; (7) offer enough quantitative examples and exercises to show how microeconomic theory is applied and to help students to begin developing the mathematical skills required for success in advanced economics; and (8) provide—through footnotes and citations—links to more advanced treatments. With those goals in mind, I wrote the present text. The most innovative feature of the book is its extensive coverage of recent research in behavioral and experimental economics. This research not only documents behavior incon- sistent with some elements of traditional theory but also advances positive theories with superior predictive power. The research I cover includes studies of loss aversion, reference- dependent preferences, the context and framing of choice, hyperbolic discounting and inconsistent intertemporal choice, predictable errors in updating probabilities, nonlinear weighting of probabilities, and prospect theory. The importance of this material was high- lighted by the Swedish Academy of Sciences when it awarded the 2002 Prize in Economic Sciences to Daniel Kahneman (a psychologist who helped lay the foundations of behav- ioral economics) and Vernon Smith (an experimental economist). Although the topics are “advanced” in the sense that they are near the frontier of economic research and seldom cov- ered in textbooks, they are readily comprehended because they center on simple controlled experiments and relate to everyday concerns. Covering results from behavioral and experimental economics along with traditional microeconomic doctrine involves rebalancing three key components of economics: issues, theory, and data. Traditional introductions emphasize issues, sketch theory, and use data only to illustrate theory. More advanced texts traditionally focus on theory, relegating issues and data to asides. Any data in traditional texts are usually from observational (nonexperimental) studies. The relationship between theory and observational data is likely to be ambiguous until probed by advanced econometric methods and may remain so even then. Recognizing that few students have the econometric skills needed for serious analysis of observational data, some authors focus their texts almost exclusively on theory and issues. Although widely used, such texts arouse misgivings in students and professors to whom data-free exposition smells of indoctrination (Leamer 1997). In comparison to traditional texts, this book places more emphasis on experimental data, both when they support received theory and when they reveal anomalies. Thus the book covers both feedlot experiments that viii PREFACE generate conventionally shaped isoquants and choice experiments that cast doubt on the predictive value of expected utility theory. The book presupposes nothing beyond high-school algebra and intellectual curiosity. It is intended for undergraduate classes and independent reading. Anyone writing for an audience that includes undergraduates must decide how to han- dle the growing gap between the rudimentary mathematical skills acquired in secondary schools, particularly in the United States, and the growing mathematical prerequisites for reading economists’ professional journals. This gap must somehow be bridged if under- graduates are to be prepared for employment or graduate study in economics and related fields. To be fully prepared, students need not only classes in mathematics but also prac- tice in formulating and solving quantitative economic problems. Too many texts either omit such problems or assume that students come fully equipped to handle them. In contrast, this text offers many opportunities to apply high-school algebra in an economic context and to develop basic skills in linear programming and risk modeling. Through footnotes and parenthetical remarks, it also encourages readers to make good use of any calculus they know. Exercises appear where appropriate in the text; solutions and supplemental problems are collected at the ends of chapters. When teaching from the book, I usually start each class by asking students if they had trouble solving any problems in the previous chapter and end class by helping students tackle the problems in the current chapter. By solving the problems, students can make appreciable progress toward becoming competent economists. Acknowledgments Carole Miller carefully read the entire manuscript, providing scores of helpful suggestions. Others who contributed useful comments include Christopher Anderson, Calvin Blackwell, Wentworth Boynton, Keith Burkett, Bruce Cater, Joel Dirlam, Glenn Erickson, Phillip Fanchon, John Gates, Ernesto Lucas, Charles Plott, Yngve Ramstad, Bojana Ristich, Mohammed Sharif, Jon Sutinen, Kathryn Zeiler, and many former students. While a graduate student at the University of California (Berkeley), I benefited from contact with many excellent professors, among whom six are particularly relevant to this work: From George Akerlof and Roy Radner I learned to appreciate rigorous theoretical analysis of both optimizing and nonoptimizing behavior. From Daniel McFadden and Thomas Rothenberg I learned how much economics can benefit from careful linkage of theory and data. From Laura D’Andrea Tyson and Benjamin Ward I learned the value of close attention to interactions between economic institutions and behavior. Like most textbook authors, I am indebted to my predecessors. Microeconomic texts and treatises that I have used with pleasure as a student or a teacher include A. Asimakopulos’s An Introduction to Economic Theory: Microeconomics, Theodore C. Bergstrom and John H. Miller’s Experiments with Economic Principles, William J. Baumol’s Economic The- ory and Operations Analysis, Samuel Bowles and David Kendrick’s Notes and Problems in Microeconomic Theory, Jae Wan Chung’s Utility and Production Functions, Richard M. Cyert and James G. March’s A Behavioral Theory of the Firm, Gerard Debreu’s Theory of Value, A. K. Dixit’s Optimization in Economic Theory , Robert H. Frank’s Microeco- nomics and Behavior, C. E. Ferguson’s Microeconomic Theory, James M. Henderson and Richard E. Quandt’s Microeconomic Theory: A Mathematical Approach, Michael D. In- triligator’s Mathematical Optimization and Economic Theory, Geoffrey A. Jehle and Philip J. Reny’s Advanced Microeconomic Theory, David M. Kreps’s Notes on the Theory of Choice, Heinz D. Kurz and Neri Salvadori’s Theory of Production, Edmond Malinvaud’s Lectures on Microeconomic Theory, Andreu Mas-Colell, Michael D. Whinston, and Jerry R. Green’s Microeconomic Theory , Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter’s An Evo- lutionary Theory of Economic Change, Walter Nicholson’s Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions, Edmund S. Phelps’s Political Economy, Robert S. Pindyck and Daniel L. Rubinfeld’s Microeconomics, Dominick Salvatore’s Microeconomics: Theory and Applications, Paul A. Samuelson’s Foundations of Economic Analysis, Andrew Schot- ter’s Microeconomics: A Modern Approach,OzShy’sIndustrial Organization, Joseph E. Stiglitz’s Principles of Microeconomics, Henri Theil’s Optimal Decision Rules for Govern- ment and Industry and The System-Wide Approach to Microeconomics, Hal R. Varian’s Microeconomic Analysis, and W. Kip Viscusi, John M Vernon, and Joseph E. Harrington Jr.’s Economics of Regulation and Antitrust. [...]... reasoning about masses of data is to summarize them Data summaries usually take the form of statistics—that is, mathematical functions of data Univariate statistics summarize several observations on a single variable Two such statistics—the mean and standard deviation—are used in this book Multivariate statistics, which summarize the relationship between two variables or among several variables, are beyond... Price Price Change in demand Quantity Quantity Figure 1.6 Changes in demand and quantity demanded and an increase in the quantity demanded Similarly, we may say that an increase in demand brings about a rise in price and an increase in the quantity supplied The remainder of this section outlines a few important and easily understood forces affecting demand and supply Further analysis and examples of these... collecting and summarizing relevant data Data can be collected by observing economic activity or by experimentation Data summaries usually take the form of statistics such as means and standard deviations 10 Economics is divided into two large branches Microeconomics is concerned with how individuals and organizations make decisions about allocation of scarce resources and how these decisions affect relative... appreciably better than laypersons Recognizing this fact, some firms are willing to pay high salaries to skilled economists For example, a New York investment and securities firm in the 1980s offered a starting salary of $300,000 to a young economist with a specialty in multivariate forecasting Accurate predictions can be costly in time, databases, software, and hardware Thus forecasters usually face a tradeoff... tradeoff between accuracy and cost Different forecasting methods may be appropriate for different circumstances An individual who has to prepare weekly forecasts on a laptop computer will typically use simpler and less accurate methods than a team that prepares annual forecasts on a super-computer The individual’s forecasts may nonetheless be optimal for his or her circumstances Forecasting may also involve... would obtain a new suit worth £200 and personal satisfaction worth £1700 He has already spent six months on the fabric project To finish it, he would have to spend £600 on materials and equipment As a lab assistant he could earn £1000 What should Sidney do? 3 Will Hunting could spend the afternoon at a baseball game or a mathematics lecture Will has paid $20 for a ticket to the game and would have been... alone annually publishes about a 1000 pages of tables of data Add to that the statistical handbooks of 50 states and hundreds of foreign countries, not to mention specialized data sets on computer tapes and disks, and you have more data than anyone can hold in memory 17 Several of his papers on experimental methods are reprinted in V Smith (1991) 1.9 Summary 15 A necessary first step in scientific reasoning... statement establishes an ideal, which may or may not be attainable, whereas a prescriptive statement recommends or requires practical steps to approximate an ideal as closely as possible An influential delineation of normative, prescriptive, and positive statements in economics appears in John Neville Keynes (1955) 4 THE ORIGINS AND SCOPE OF MICROECONOMICS 1.3.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis and Utility Maximization... herds are destroyed to contain an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease In what direction does the supply curve for beef shift? What happens to the price of beef? If beef and pork are substitutes, what happens to demand for pork? What happens to the price of pork? If beef and cabbage are complements, what happens to demand for cabbage? What happens to the price of cabbage? 1.4 Mathematical Methods To advance... increase in demand causes the equilibrium price and quantity to increase, whereas a fall in demand has the opposite effects, as in Figure 1.7 An increase in supply causes the equilibrium price to fall and the equilibrium quantity to rise, whereas a fall in supply has the opposite effects, as in Figure 1.8 For example, a few years ago the arrest of leaders of the Cali drug cartel raised the price of cocaine . Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South. research, scholarship, and education. 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