Factor affect individual investor behavior in viet nam (2)

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS FACTORS AFFECT INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOR IN VIETNAM STOCK MARKET CASE STUDY: HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE (SUMMARY) A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By LE NHU HAI LONG Academic Supervisor: Dr CAO HAO THI HO CHI MINH CITY, JULY 2009 Table Of Contents Abstract J Introduction I Literature review .2 2.1 Prospect Theory .3 2.2 Heuristics .4 2.3 Demographic Characteristics of Individual Investor 2.4 Empirical Studies 2.5 Conceptual Framework RResseeaarrcchh MMethhodoolology .8 3.1 Research Design .8 3.2 Measurement 3.3 r'ii‹›t Survey 11 3.4 Survey Design 12 Data Analysis and Empirical Findings 12 4.1 Sample 12 4.2 Descriptive Statistics 12 4.3 Reliability Analysis 12 4.4 Factor Analysis 13 4.5 Hierarchical Regression Analysis .15 4.6 Hypothesis Testing .16 Conclusions and Recommendations 16 5.1 Main Findings 16 5.2 Implications .17 5.3 Recommendations 17 5.4 Limitations 19 5.5 Future Research Directions 19 References 20 Abstract The objectives of this research are to determine the main factors infiuencing individual investor behavior, to determine the relationship between factors and behavior of individual investors The scope of the research is limited to individual investor in Ho Chi Minh City The results indicated that five factors including Information disclosed by listed company, Information from professional organization7institution, Rumor information, Information from inside company, and Herd behavior demonstrate a significant infiuence upon individual investor behavior The hypothesis testing results indicated that most hypotheses in the conceptual framework were supported except the infiuence of individual demographic characteristics on individual investor behavior Introduction The first securities trading center of Vietnam stock market (VSM) was launched in July 2000 in Ho Chi Minh City as a pilot project The second securities trading center was established in Hanoi five years later in March 2005 Till December 31 , 2008, there had been 170 stocks listed on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HoSE) with total capitalization value of VND169,346 billions, 168 stocks listed on Hanoi securities trading center (HaSTC) with total capitalization value of VND50,428 billions Most investors still keep in mind a lesson they had learnt when the market index had h trotted up to peak at 571.04 points on July 6' 2001 until it had quickly collapsed to the trough of below 130 points As a result of this, many investors who just shortly before were making massive profits had ended up with huge debts Another similar event did occur in 2006, during which VN-Index had achieved at 632.69 points, which is far higher than previous record of 571.04 points, until it had kept dropping down constantly and finally maintained at around below 400 points in March, 2006 Within two months, investors had seen a quick unexpected change and failed to react effectively ' Bao c:Io phfin tich nen kinh té Vi(t Nam 2008 v:\ th j truéiig chttng khoén 2009 (Vietnam economy in 2008 and stock exchanges in 2009 analysis report) Retrieved Feb 20“', 2009 from: http://www.fpts.com.vn/FileStore/File/2009/01/25/Bao_cao nam_2008-FPTS.pdf The instability of VSM that had been witnessed in the two cited periods above is particularly due to the impact of the so-called “psychological element” on individual investors — investors usually follow exactly any move of majority Vietnamese investors not only lack information about the market, but also they are in short of experience Basically, they base their trading activities on those of majority It is easy to see that VSM did not operate under any economic rules; theories of market efficiency completely fail Perhaps, this is the time to use the theory based on basic human psychology to explain the behavior of investor in VSM Based on the above background, this research focuses on the following objectives: • To determine the main factors influencing individual investor behavior • To determine the relationship between factors and behavior of individual investors • To suggest recommendations for policy markers, listed company, and individual investors Descriptive statistics are firstly used to describe the basic features of the data in this research; secondly, this research using qualitative study to explore potential factors which may have an impact on the decision making of the individual investor Finally, quantitative study measures the decision making of individual investor and factors that have identified The statistic software used in this research is SPSS 15.0 The respondents in this research consist of individual investors who had trading account at securities company in Ho Chi Minh City Literature review Decision-making is a complex process Decisions can never be made by just relying on the personal resources and complex models, which not take into consideration the situation Decision-making can be defined as the process of choosing a particular alternative from a number of alternatives It is an activity that follows after proper evaluation of all the alternatives They need to update themselves in multidimensional fields so that they can accomplish the desired results/ goals in the competitive business environment In the present of Vietnam stock market situation, behavioral finance is becoming an integral part of the decision-making process, because it heavily influences investors’ performance They can improve their performance by recognizing the biases and errors ofjudgment to which all of us are prone Behavioral finance deals with individuals and ways of gathering and using information Besides, behavioral finance seeks to understand psychological decision processes In addition, it focuses on the application of psychological and economic principles for the improvement of financial decisionmaking According to behavioral finance, investor behavior derives from psychological principles of decision making to explain why people buy or sell stocks Behavioral finance focuses upon how investors interpret and act on information to make investment decisions This research based on the basic findings and principal theories within behavioral finance in order to explain the psychologies of various irrational investor behaviors in stock market, which lead to the hypotheses of this research 2.1 Prospect Theory Value Losses Figure 1Prospect theory value function (Source Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A (1979) Prospect theory An analysis of decision making under risk Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291) Prospect theory was developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) as a psychologically realistic alternative to expected utility theory It allows one to describe how people make choices in situations where they have to decide between alternatives that involve risk, in particular, choices under risk are usually underweighted in comparison with outcomes under certainty The tendency mentioned will lead to a pervasive effect of aversion to risk when provided sure gains while risk seeking involving sure losses The phenomenon can be simply described in S-shaped value function as Figure 2.2 Heuristics Heuristics is the decision process by which the investors find things out for themselves, usually by trial and error, lead to the development of rules of thumb In other words, it refers to rules of thumb which humans use to made decisions in complex, uncertain environments According to Fromlet (2001), heuristics can also be defined as the “use of experience and practical efforts to answer questions or to improve performance” Due to the fact that more and more information is spread faster and faster, life for decision-makers in financial markets has become more complicated Heuristics may help to explain why the market sometimes acts in an irrational manner The following will introduce a number of heuristics of investor psychology that affect investor decision-making 2.2.1 Herd Behavior According to Chan (2003), herd behavior may be the most generally recognized observation on financial markets in a psychological context In addition, according to Black (1986), investors with no access to insider information, irrationally act on noise as if it were information that would give them an edge The first hypothesis of this research is proposed: H;: Herd behavior have an impact on individual investor behavior 2.2.2 Overconfidence Investors are usually overconfident about their abilities to complete difficult tasks successfully, such as picking winning stocks They believe their knowledge is more accurate than it really is and that their forecasts are more precise than their experience should validate Several factors contribute to overconfidence One of these factors, called the illusion of knowledge, is having more information available Increased levels of information not necessarily lead to greater knowledge because many investors may not have the training, experience, or skills to interpret this information Also, investors tend to interpret new information as confirmation of their prior beliefs Daniel et al (1998) offer a theory is that stock prices overreact to private information and under-react to public information Besides, according to Odean (1998), overconfident traders believe their private information to be more precise than it is From these ideas, it can be consider that the decision making of individual investor affected by private and public information • Private Information According to Merton (1987), individual investors tend to hold only a few different common stocks in their portfolios Economist argues that individual investors hold only a few different common stocks in their portfolios because they have insider information of the company which stock they are holding In addition, Damodaran et al (1993) proved that insider trading is motivated by private information Besides, in the present, insider trading is also taking place in the Vietnam stock market; some investors rely on the relationship with someone who has responsibility in the listed company to capture the information, which is not announced outside yet, to implement buying/selling this stock The following hypothesis is proposed: H : Information from inside company (insider information) have an impact on the individual investor behavior • Public Information According to French el al (1986), public information is information that becomes known at the same time and available to the whole market, no one trades on the information before it is released In the present of Vietnam stock market, public information can be come from different source, such as: rumor information, information disclosed by listed company, information from professional organization/institution Rumor information According to Schindler (2007), a rumor is a piece of information that has poor authenticating data, not yet been confirmed by official sources or denied by them A rumor can either be confirmed as true or be found to be false at a certain point in the future In the present of Vietnam stock market, there are many types of rumor that could influence the stock market The following hypothesis is proposed: H : Rumor information have an impact on the individual investor behavior Information disclosed by listed company Information disclosed by listed company is the information about the company financial performance, board of director, future project, and stock trading of member in board of director This information must be disclosed to the public through the media, such as: newspaper, television, or the website of the company The following hypothesis is proposed: H4: Information disclosed by listed company have an impact on the individual investor behavior Information from professional organization7institution Information from professional organization/institution is the information announces to the public through by the media This information source is come from investment funds, specialized magazines, or from the report of prestigious organization/institution (i.e report of HSBC, JP Morgan, and Merrill Lynch about Vietnam stock market) This source of information has an important for individual investors when they make decision to buy or sell stocks When a good analyzed report about stock market announces, this will take investors to buy stock, and in the other hand, they will sell stock The following hypothesis is proposed: Hs: Information from professional organization/institution have an impact on the individual investor behavior 2.3 Demographic Characteristics of Individual Investor Grinblatt et al (2001) found influence of several demographics (age and gender) on the propensity to buy stocks Besides, according to Westernholm el at (2003), male investors trade more frequently and are more diversified than female investors In addition, according to Chen et al (2005), an experienced trader may be less inclined toward behavioral biases in their trading decisions The following hypothesis is proposed: ×6: The relationship between factors and individual investor behavior will be significantly influenced by the factors related to demographic characteristics 2.4Empirical Studies 2.4.1Andre Farber, Nguyen Van Nam, and Vuong Quan Hoang (2006) The question about the herd behavior on Vietnam stock market was firstly asked in the early of 2001, and it have experimental demonstrated in 2006 Farber et al (2006) proved that herd behavior is very strong in Vietnam by statistic model They have checked the effect of herd behavior on the market return Results of their study for Vietnam stock market are: investors behave in herd when the market situation forces the stocks to extreme positive returns; herd behaviors exist on the Vietnam stock market 2.4.2Robert A Nagy and Robert W Obenberger (1994) Nagy and Obenberger (1994) using the varimax algorithm of orthogonal rotation to analyzed 34 variables that presented by seven summary factors, such as: neutral information, accounting information, self-image/firm-image coincidence, classic, social-relevance, advocate-recommendation, and personal financial needs Their findings suggest that the recommendations of brokerage houses, individual stock brokers, family members and coworkers go largely unheeded Many individual investors discount the benefits of valuation models when evaluating stocks 2.4.3 John R Nofsinger (2001) Nofsinger (2001) investigate the trading behavior of investors by developing a measure of abnormal trading and using the buy and sell volume of institutions and individuals around firm-specific news releases in the Wall Street Journal and macro-economic announcements He found that investors conduct heavy trading around the publication of firm-specific news in general, and earnings, dividend, and capital budgeting news in particular 2.4.5 Clara Vega (2006) Vega (2006) measured the effect of private and public information on the post-earning announcement drift The empirical results show that the more information (private or public) investors have about the true value of an asset, and the more they agree and trade on this information-the smaller the abnormal return drift 2.5 Conceptual Framework In this research, the conceptual framework is illustrated in Figure Antecedent variiibles Public information Rumor information Information disclosed by listed company Information from professional organization/institution Private information Information from Inside Company (insider information) Herd behavior Moderator variables Demographic characteristics of individual investor: • Age • Gender • Investment experienced Outcome variable Individual Investor Behavior Figure Conceptual Framework Research Methodology 3.1 Research Design kinh nghi(m ciia hp Co inpt so yeu to tao nen su qua tit tin ctia nha dau tu, mpt so dé› co the gpi la su danh lua ciia kien thuc, la co them nhieu thong tin Su gia tang ciia thong tin khong nhat thiet la dan den viec co nhieu kien thuc bcii vi c:ie nha dau tu thucing khfing dfi l‹inh nghiem hoac ky nang de xu ly ducic nhung thong tin Hon nua, cac nha dau tu co l‹huynh hu‹ ng xif ly nhung thong tin mc›i nhu la su xac nhan long tin cua ho Daniel va cpng su (1998) trinh bay mot ly thuyet rang gia chung khoan phan trng manh doi vc i nhung thong tin rieng bi(t va phan ung yeu ’ot doi voi nhung thong tin cong cpng Ben canh do, theo Odean (1998), nhung nha dau tu qua tu tin thuc ng tu tin vao nhung thong tin rieng biet ma hp co ducic hon ca nhung gi ma no mang lai Tu nhung y l‹ien neu tren, co the xein rang quyet di|nh ciia nha dau tu ca nhan co the :inh hu‹ing bcii thong tin riéng biet va thong tin cong cpng • Thong tin riéng bi(t (Private Information) Theo Merton (1987), nha dau tu ca nhan thuc ng naiu gin mot so it lopi co phieu danh mqc dau tu ciia iriinh Cac nha kinh te hpc cho rang nha dau tu ca nhan thucing nam gin mot so it loai co phieu danh iriuc dau tu cua hp bc i vi hp céi nhung thong tin noi bo( ctia cong ty rna hp nairi gin co phieu Them vao do, Damodaran va cong su (1993) chung minh rang giao di|ch no( i gian xuat phat tu nhung thong tin rieng bi(t Ben canh do, giao dich npi gran hien dang dien ci TTCK Viet Nam, mpt so nha dau tu dua tren moi quan he vc i ngu‹ i co lien quan cong ty niem yet de nam bat nhung thong tin chua cung cap ngoai, hanh mua/ban loai co phieu Gia thiet sau du‹c da)t ra: Hi: Thong tin n o(i bp co tac dpng den hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan • Thong tin cfing cong (Public Information) Theo French va cpng su (1986), thong tin cong cpng la thong tin duc c mpi ngucii biet den ciing iript tho’i dieiri, lchong at co the biet trucic no duoc cong bo rpng rat Trong thuc te ctia TTCK Viet Nam hien nay, thong tin cong cpng co the bao gom nhung luong thong tin nhu: Tin don, Thong tin tu cong ty niem yet, Thong tin tu cac to chuc chuyen nghi(p Theo Schindler (2007), tin don la iript mau thong tin chua duoc xac thuc, chua dupe chinh thuc xac nh a(n ho(ac tu choi tir ben co lien quan Mpt tin don co the ducic xac nhan la dung ho)ac cung co the la sai vao tuong lai Trong thuc Ie cua TTCK Vi(t Nam hien nay, co rat nhiéu loai tin don co the anh hu‹ ng den thi trucing chirng khoan Gia thiet sau duc c da)t ra: H : Tin don co tac dpng den hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan Théng tin tii cong ty nié m yét Thong tin tu cong ty niem yet la cac thong tin ve tinh hinh tai chinh, cac du an dau tu tuong lai, va giao dich co phiéu cua cac vién hoi dong quan tri ctia cong ty Thong tin phai duoc dang tai tren cac phuong tien thong ti dai chung nhu bao dai va website cfia cong ty Gia thiet sau day ducic da)t ra: H4: Thong tin tu cong ty niem yet co tae dong den hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan Théng tin tit céc to cht’rc chuyén nghiep Thong tin tit cac to chu’c chuyen nghi(p la nhung thong tin duqc cong bo rpng rat tren c:ic phuong tien thong tin dai chung Nguon thong tin thuc ng la cac bao cao cua cac quy dau tu, cac tap chi chuyen de, ho)ac cac bao cao ciia cac to chtrc co uy tin (Vi du: Bao cao ctia HSBC, JP Morgan, va Merrill Lynch ve thi| truc ng chung khoan Viet Nam) Nguon thong tin rat quan trpng doi ver cac nha dau tu, lam cc sc cho hp de quyet dinh inua/ban chung l‹hoan Khi in(ot ban bao cao tot ve TTCK dupe cong bo, nha dau tu se iriua vao co phieu, va nguc c lai Gia thiet sau ducic da)t ra: H$: Thong tin tti’ cac to chuc chuyén nghi(p cé› tac dong den hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan 2.3 Da( c diém cfia nha dau tu’ c:i nhfin Grinblatt va cpng su (2001) tiin inpt so da)c diem ca nhan cila nha dau tu (dp tuoi va gioi tinh) co anh hu’o’ng den xu the dau tu chung khoan Ben canh do, theo Westemholm va cpng su (2003), nha dau tu la nam thi giao dich thu‹ing xuyen va da dang hon la nha dau tu la nu Them vao do, theo Chen va cpng su (2005), nha dau tu co kinh nghieiri it co l‹huynh hucing l(ch lac hanh vi quyet dinh cua hp Gia thuyet sau day duoc dat ra: 2.4 C:ic nghién ciiu th;yc nghi(m 2.4.1 Andre Farber, Nguyen Van Nam, va Vuong Quan Hoang (2006) Cau h‹5i ve hanh vi bay dan tren TTCK Viet Nam du‹ic d(at dau tien vao dau nam 2001, va da duc c chung ininh thuc nghiem vao nam 2006 Farber va cpng su (2006) chtrng minh bang mo hinh thong l‹e rang hanh vi bay dan dien rat manh me ‹i Viet Nam 2.4.2 Robert A Nagy va Robert W Obenberger (1994) Nagy va Obenberger (1994) phan tich 34 bien so dai dien bcii bay nhan nhan to, bao gom: thong tin trung lap; thong tin lce toan, dac tinh cua cong ty, toi da hoa l‹ii nhuan, c:ic quan he xa hpi, l‹ i l‹huyen ciia chuyen gia, va nhu cau tai chinh ca nhan Ket qua ctia hp de nghi la Hi dé ngh) tit cac cong ty chung l‹hoan, cac nha moi gioi ca nhan, cac vién gia dinh hoac dong nghi(p co iinh huc ng lcin 2.4.3 John R Nofsinger (2001) Nofsinger (2001) nghien cuu hanh vi giao dich ciia nha dau tu bang each luc ng giao dich bat thucing va su’ dung l‹hoi lu’c ng iriua va ban cua cac to chuc va ca nhan ma thong tin ve doanh ngliiep du’‹ c dang tren tc bao Wall Street Ong ta tim duoc rang nha dau tu giao dich manh we hon l‹hi nhan dupc thong tin doanh nghi(p né›i chung, va tin the ve let nhuan, 2.4.5 Clara Vega (2006) Vega (2006) luc ng anh huéng cila thong tin rieng biet va thong tin cong cpng den khuynh huong thong bao lot nhuan Két qua cho thay rang cang nhieu thong tin (rieng 2.5 Mtr hinh nghién cfi'u Mo hinh nghien cuu du‹ c dien ta nhu hinh 2: Dién dpc hip Thom tin coig coug Tin don Thf›ng tin tu “ii iiiém Thong tin tu’ cac to clifi’c chuyén nghi(p Thf›ng tin rieng biét Thong tin iioi bo Bién triing gian Dac diem cfia nh:i dau tir ca nhfin: • Tuoi • Gio’i tinh • Kinh nghi(m dau tu Bién pm p I/tune Hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhfin Hinh Mo hinh nghién cuu Phuo’ng ph /ap nghién cfru 3.1 Thiét ké nghién cfi’u Nghien cuu bao goiri ba bu‹ c chinh nhu minh hpa Hinh Co so 1y tlitiyét Phoiig van sfiu Birfrc Phiiii tlcli nhan to khéni ph8 (EFA) Biréic Bdng cfiu h0i chinh thtrc Ph‹ing vfin Phfin ticli nhfin to khém pli:i (EFA) Xtic nh8n phfln tlch nhdn to (CFA) Hinh Tien trinh nghien cuu 3.2 C:ie thang 3.2.1 Thang bién doc lap Thang Tin don bao “in: (a) Thong tin lay tu mang Internet nhu: cac phong chat, ciic dien dan; (b) Thong tin ve tinh trang nc cua cong ty; (c) Thong tin ve muc tra co tuc cua cong ty Thong tin tii cong ty niém yét Thang Thong tin tit cong ty niem yet: (a) Thong tin ve quyet dinh ciia Hoi dong quan tr|i ve mua lai co phieu ho)ac ban co phieu cua nhung vien hoi dong quan tr|i cua cong ty; (b) Thong tin ve doanh thu, lpi nhuan hang quy, hang nam cua cf›ng ty; (c) thong bao infrc “ tuc ciia cong ty; (d) Thong tin ve von dau tu, lien doanh, san pham mc›i ciia cong ty Thong tin tit céc to cl hc chuyén nghiep Thang Thong tin tit cac to chuc chuyen nghiep: (a) Bao cao phan tich ciia c:ie to chirc chuyen nghiep (HSBC, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch) ; (b) Bao cao phan tich ctia cac quy dau tu; (c) 4“hong tin co duoc tit cong ty chung khoan; (d) Thong tin co duoc tit ngucii moi gioi chung l‹hoan; va (e) Lcii de ngh|i tu ban bé ho)ac dong nghiep Thong tin riot bo Thang Thong tin npi bp cua nghien cuu la: (a) Thong tin tit nguc i co moi quan he d(ac bi(t véi tlianh vien ciia hoi dong quan tri/ Ban gram doe cua cfing ty; (b) Thong tin tir vien ciia lio( i dong quan tr|/ Dan gram doc ctia cong ty; (c) Thong tin tit nhan vien Main viec cong ty Hanh vi bay dan Dua vao nghien cfi’u ctia Schindler (2007), nghien cuu luc ng Hanh vi bay dan b‹ i: (a) Quan sat va tlieo doi hanh vi ciia nguc i 1‹hac; (b) Tin tuc va binh luan ve su thay doi gia co phieu qua bao dai ; (c) Tin tirc va binh luan ve giao dich co phieu qua bao dai; (d) Bao cao ve hanh vi ciia nha dau tu chung khoan qua biro dai; and (e) Giao dich cua mot so dong nhoin ngucii 3.2.2 Thang bién trung gian Giéi tinh Thang gioi tinh bao goin: Nam va nu Nghien cuu chia thang do( tuoi muc: (a) Duoi 26; (b) Tit 26 den 45; va (c) Tren 45 Kinh nghiem ‹lau tu goiri: (a) Du‹ i nairi , (b) 1-3 nam, (c) 3-5 nam, va (d) Tren nam 3.2.3 Thang bicn phu thuoc: Hanh vi nha dau tw c:i nhan Nghién cuu lu‹ ng hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan bfii ba bien quan sat: (a) Du dinh mua/ban; (b) Sq lua chpn dau tién dé inua/ban; and (c) Khuyen ngucii khac mua/ban 3.2.4 Thang 3.3 Khao s:it thu 3.3.1 Mau khao s:it Trong phan l‹1iao sat thu, du lieu dupc thu thap bang phong van truc tiep 39 nha dau tu tar c:ic cong ty chung l‹hoan c Ho Chi Minh Cac ket qua cua danh gia so b(o cho thay tat ca cac bien quan siit deu cé› he so tuong quan bien-tong lcin how 0,3 va co he so tai nhan to lcin hon 0,5 Chi co mpt bien quan sat cé› he so tuong quan bien-tong nho hon 0,3, “Thong tin ve tinh trang np cfia cong ty” v‹ii h( so tuong cJuan bien-tong la 0,227 Theo Nunnally (1978), nen loai bien quan sat khoi bang cau hoi Tuy nhien, nghien cuu da khong loai bien vi co ly thuyet ho trc cho bien va inau ilghien cuu ciia giai doan chi la 39 10 3.3.3 Phfin tich tin ca(y cua khao s:it thfr He so Cronbach’s alpha duoc su dung de danh gia dp tin cay ciia nhom nhan to, he so ciia nhom nhan to nain l‹hoang tu 0,642 den 0,846 H( so Cronbach’s alpha ciia hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan la 0,656; tat ca cac he so deu lc n hon mtic chap nhan dwac la 0,6 3.3.4 Phfi n tich nhan to chia kha.o s:it thfi’ Phan tich nhan to ducic sit dung de rut tit 20 bien quan sat ban dau nhung nhan to co y nghia hon Phan tich nhan dang dupe nhom nhan to voi eigenvalue lon hon 1, phu‹ing sai trich dat 79,32%; va inpt nhom nhan to ducic rtit cila hanh vi nha dau tu cii nhan voi eigenvalue lon hon 1, phuong sai trich dat 61,263% 3.4 Thiét ké ba ng phong van Tuong tu vcii bang cau hoi cupc l‹hao sat thti, bang phong van cuoi cung cua nghien cuu yeu cau cac nha dau tu nghi ve mpt co phieu rna hp du di|nh mua/biin Bang cau hoi cuoi cung bao goin 26 cau hoi dé›ng, cau hoi dong bao gom cac phuong an co dinh dna cho ngu’‹ i dup’c phong van de lua chpn Phfi n tich d fr lieu va két qua Mau khao sat cua ngliien cfiu la cac nha dau tu ca nhan c Ho Chi Minh Dii lieu dupc thu thap bao gom 187 nha dau tu ca nhan dang giao d|ch tai cac cong ty chung kho:in o Ho Chi Minh bang phong van tritc tiep 4.2 Thong lté mii I:i Bang phan tich tan so dupc thiet la(p de trio ta net da)c trung cfia nha dau tu c:i nhan Thong tin bao gom: do( Bang tuoi, giéi tinh, va hinh nghiem dau tu Ket quit hien th| Bang 1Thong l‹é mo ta Do 1u’ci’ng Kinh nglii(in dau tu’ Cong ty c1u1’iig klioaii Gia tri Tan suat Phan tram Duoi 26 29 15.5 Tu’ 26 den 45 125 66.8 Tren 45 33 17.6 Nu’ 77 41.2 Nain 110 58.8 Du’o’i nam 44 23.5 Tu’ I den main 86 46 Tu’ den main 39 20.9 Tren nain 18 9.6 BSC 39 20.9 CSC 14 7.5 PVSC 4.3 BVSC 39 20.9 VICS 41 21.9 ICBS 21 11.2 Mirae Asset 11 5.9 ORS 14 7.5 4.3 Phan tich tin cay He so Cronbach’s alpha duoc sfi dung de danh gia dp tin c(ay cua nhé›m nhan to va nhan to hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan Thong tin tu cong ty niem yet, Thong tin tit cac to chuc chuyen nghiep, Tin don, Thong tin npi bp, va Hanh vi bay dan co he so Cronbach’s alpha theo thu tu th 0,773 dén 0,610 Nhan to hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan co he so Cronbach’s alpha la 0,63 4.4 Phan tich nhan to Phan tich nhan to duoc su dung de rut tit 20 bien quan sat ban dau nhung nhan to co y nghia hon Phan tich nhan dang du’pc nhom nhan to voi eigenvalue Ion hon 1, phuong sai trich dat 60,481%; va irio( t nhom nhan to duoc rut cua hanh vi nha dau tu 12 ca nhan vc i eigenvaluc lc n hon 1, phuc ng sai trich dat 59,131% Ket qua ciia phan tich nhan to ducic trinh bay ‹ Bang va Bang Bang Phan tich nhan to cua cac nhan to thong tin Nhfiii to 1: Hanh vi bfiy d:in Herd2 Herd4 Herd3 Herdl Herd5 Insider2 Insiderl Insider3 Com_Dis2 Com_Dis3 Com Disl Pro_Org2 Pro Org4 Pro_Org3 Pro_Org1 Rumorl Rumor2 Eigenvalues Phuo’ng sai tricll (%) Luy ké phu’o’iig sai tiicli (%) Nhfin to 3: Thong tin tu’ cfing ty niem yet N1ifii1 to 2: Thong tin iioi bo Nhan to 4: Thong tin tu cac to chuc chuyén nghi(p Nhan to 5: Tin don 785 729 70 665 636 828 762 682 821 807 790 739 669 639 626 4.277 15.693 15.693 2.112 12.488 28.181 1.507 12.371 40.552 1.302 11.709 52.261 732 587 1.085 8.221 60.481 Bang Phan tich nhan to Hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan Hanh vi nha dau tu’ ca nhan Behav2 858 Behavl 766 Behav3 672 Eigenvalues 1.774 Phuo’ng sai trlcli (%) 59.131 Lfiy ké pliu’o'iig sai ti icli (%) 59.131 Trong ket qua phan tich nhan to, he so KMO cua nhan to thong tin la 0,733 va he so KMO cua hanh vi nha dau tu la 0,583 Mfrc y nghia cua kiem d|nh Bartlett la 0,0000 13 4.5 Phan tich hoi quy thco th fi’ tir (Hierarchical Regression Analysis ) Hat mo hinh hoi quy da duc c phat trien, dau tien la mo hinh vc i nam nhan to thong tin Mo hinh duoc them vao ba d(ac diem ca nhan cua nha dau tu nhu la bien gi:i Két quit ctia phan tich ducic the hien ‹i Bang Mo hinh Mo hinh Bien phu thuoc Hanh vi bfiy d:a Thong tin iioi bo Thong tin tu’ ‘ii niem yet Thong tin tit’ cac to cliti’c chuyén nglii(p Tin don Bien trung gian Gender Age1 Age2 Exp1 Exp2 Exp3 Hang so F-value R' R ieu chinli 364** 133* 241 ** 145 * 180* 314** 149* 259** 157* 178** 2.41E-017 12.853 '* 262 242 -.059 -.297 -.038 201 354 -.001 34 6.619** 294 249 * p < 0.05 ** p < 0.01 Tir ket qua c bang tren, co the l‹et lua(n rang khong co moi lien he giua da( c diem c:i nhan ciia nha dau tu vc i hanh vi nha dau tu Tat ca c:ic nhan to deu co y nghia thong ké ci mtrc 5%, mo hinh hoi quy dup’c dien ta nhu sau: Y= 364X + 133X + 241X + 145X4 + 180X5 Trong dé›: Y: Hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan X : Thong tin noi bp X : Thong tin tu cac to chu’c chuyen nghiep 14 4.6 Klém °!nh gia thiet Gi:i thiet I4aiili vi bay diin co tac dong den hanh vi nha dau tu c:i nhan Thong tin not bo co I:ic doiig den li:iiili vi tilt:i d:iu tu’ ca nhaq, Tin c1oii co tac doiig dén li:iiili vi iilia dau tu’ c:i iaaq, Dong y Dong y , Dong y “iag ty niéin yet co tac dong din hanh vi nh:i dau tu’ ca long y Thong tin tit’ cac tfi c1ui’c chuyén ng1ii(p céi tac dong den h:inh vi nh:i dau tu’ ca nhan IIOng y Thong tin th’ nhan Moi quan le gifi’a cac nhan to‘va h:iiili vi nh:i dau‘tu’ ca nhfin‘‘b]‘tac dong bfi’i nhan to tiéu c|uaii déti da)c diem ca nhan , B:ic bfi S Két lu n va giy i y chinh s:icli 5.1 Két qua chinli Két qua ciia phan tich clii rang hanh vi nha dau tu ca nhan dupe dinh nghia nhu sau: Y= 364X + 133X — 241X + 145X + 180X5 Trong do: X : Thong tin noi bp X,: Thong tin tit cong ty niem yct 15 5.2 Tinh thiyc thi cfia nghién elm Dau tien, ket qua cua nghién cuu ho tro cho ly thuyet ve hanh vi cua nha dau tu da dvipo de cap c phan cc sci ly thuyet Thu hat, ket qua cua nghien cuu céi ich cho Barn giam doc ciia cac cong ty niem yet, duc i su chi dao cua Ban gi:inn doe, cac phong chuc nang se phan tich tinh hinh doanh nghiep va cung cap thong tin chinh xac va day dii tren kénh thong tin ciia minh Ngoai thi Ban giam doc ciia cong ty ciing phiii kiem soiit nhung thong tin npi b(o ctia minh Cuoi cilng, ket qua ctia nghien cuu se cé› ich de nang cao chat luc ng d|ch vu cua cac cong ty chung khoan 5.3 Gpi y chinh sa.ch • Gpi y chinh s:ich cho Uy ban chfrng kho:in nha nwirc Uy ban chung lchoan nha nucic can phai thuc ng xuyen dna cac phan tich, canh bao ve dien bien ciia th| thuo’ng (l‹hi thi truc ng tang tru‹ing qua nong ho(ac qua lanh) de nha dau tu co it thong tin nhan dinh chinh xac hon ve tinh hinh thi truc ng va tit se co quyet dinh mua/ban hpp ly Uy ban chung lclioan nha nufic can phai tang cuc ng cong tac tra, gi:inn sat viec cong bo thong tin cua c‹ac cong ty niem yet cung nhu cua cac cong ty chung khoiin, vi day la nguon thong tin quan trpng co anh hucing nhieu den quyet dinh mua/biin cua nha dau tu Uy ban chung l‹hofin nlia nuc c can phai han che cac tin don xau cé› hai den cong ty niem yet ho)ac tin don nhain mang muc dich truc lcii rieng cua mot so nhom ngu‹ii Ben canh do, can phai dinh chinh lai nhung tin don la co tha(t hay khong, de tin don khong anh huc ng nhieu den nha dau tu Uy ban chung l‹hoan nha nuo’c can phai kiem soat cha)t che cac giao d|ch not giiin, giao d|ch not gian hien dang dien tai thi trufing chung 1‹ho:in Viet Nam Giao d| ch noi gi:in se gay bat lc i cho nha dau tu nho; neu giao dich npi gian van thucing xuyen xiiy thi se gay can tr‹ cho su phat trien ciia thi truc ng chung khoan Viet Nam 16 • Giyi y chinh s:ich cho c:i c cling ty niem yét Cong ty niem yet can phai co nhan thuc cao vai tro cung cap thong tin chinh xac, minh bach cho cac nha dau tu’ Theo l‹ét qua thu duoc tit chuong truoc, thong tin ttr cong ty niem yet co su anh huc ng lc n den hanh vi ctia nha dau tu quyet d]nh dau tu co phieu Cong ty niem yet can phai co cac phan tich ve cac chi tieu chinh ctia doanh nghiep, va cung cap nhung thong tin day du chinh xac tren l‹enh thong tin cua minh de nhfi dau tu co cai nhin chinh xac ve gia tri thuc ciia doanh nghiep cung nhu gia co phieu dang giao dich tren thi tru‹ ng chung lchoan Cong ty niem yet can co bo phan cong bo thong tin cho cac nha dau tu doi vc i c:ie thong tin co anh hu’cing lon den l‹et qua kinh doanh, ben canh déi, thi cung can phai dieu chinh nhu'ng tin don that thiet lien quan den hoat dpng ciia cong ty Them vao do, cong ty niem yet can phai hiein soat nhung thong tin npi bo chua ducic cong bo cong chung nhairi tao su cong bang cho cac nha dau tu- nhung nguc i chua biet du‹ic nguon thong tin nay, va han che cho inpt so ngucii co duoc thong tin trpc lcii rieng • Gp’i y chinh sa.ch cho c:ic nh:i dau tu’ c:i nhfin Nha dau tu phai l‹ieiii tia, xeiri xét inuc chinh xac cua cac luong thong tin co dupc, tit dé› co the d v:pc quyet ‹I|nh chinh xac Hi(n nay, nha dau tu ca nhan nuc c dang dung tru’‹ c nguy c‹ canh tranh v‹ i nha dau tu nuoc ngoai va cac nha dau tu to chuc co tiem nang ve von, l‹ien thuc va hinh nghi(n dau tu tham gia thi tru6ng chttng khoan Do vay, nha dau tu nuoc can phai trang bi nhung kien thuc ve chung khoan va th| tru’o’ng chung 1‹hoan; kien thuc ve kinh te de cé› the phan tich, chpn lpc thong tin de dna cac cJuyet d|nh dau tu mang lai lpi nhuan cho minh Triinh tinh trang dau tv theo l‹ieu luc t song, tain ly bay dan 5.4 Nhfrng h:i n ché ciia nghién cfru 17 kich thuc c mau la phii hpp, nhién, l‹et qua nghien cfru se diing tin ca(y hon néu kich thuc c mau lcin hon Mo( t gi‹ii han 1‹hac cua de tai la ket qua nghien cuu cua de tai chi dua vao nhii dau tu ca nhan Cuoi cung, cé› cac nhan to khac chua ducic x:ic dinh de dna vao nghien cuu 5.5 Hirérng nghién cfru tiép thco Nhung nghien cuu tiép theo la can inc rpng pham vi nghien cuu cho cac tinh, khac vii mau l‹hao sat lon hon Théin vfio do, nghien cuu tiep theo can nghien ctiu them doi tupng la nha hanh vi to chuc dé so sanh giua nha dau tu to chuc va nha dau tu ca nhan Cuoi ciing, cfin inpt so yeu to khac giai thich cho hanh vi cua nha dau tu cii nhan chua duc c de c p nghien cuu nay; van de dna mot huéng nghien cttu nua cho cac nghien cuu tiep theo 18 ... determine the main factors infiuencing individual investor behavior, to determine the relationship between factors and behavior of individual investors The scope of the research is limited to individual. .. influencing individual investor behavior, to determine the relationship between factors and behavior of individual investors The scope of the research is limited to individual investor in Ho Chi Minh... institution investor Individual investor is an individual who trade stocks for him/herself, also called retail investor or small investor In the view of this research, investor behavior is decision of investor