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NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 1 Running head NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Network Theory and Political Revolution A Case Study of the Role of Social Media in the Diffusion of Political Revolution in Egypt Carrie O‟Connell San Diego State University Journalism and Media Studies NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 2 Abstract The main goal of this study is to achieve a qualitative understanding of the scope and shape of the network of political revolution as evidenced by th.
NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Running head: NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Network Theory and Political Revolution: A Case Study of the Role of Social Media in the Diffusion of Political Revolution in Egypt Carrie O‟Connell San Diego State University Journalism and Media Studies NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Abstract The main goal of this study is to achieve a qualitative understanding of the scope and shape of the network of political revolution as evidenced by the 2011 Egyptian civic uprisings In charting the physical map of the information-spreading that occurred through new media platforms during the month-long protests, the foundation for qualitative study of the correlation between the rise and influence of new media, the civil and political engagement of the publics and the success of political revolutions will be achieved Prompted by the success of 2011 Egyptian uprisings, the author will perform a case study of social unrest in Egypt between January – February, 2011 with specific attention paid to the social media tools used to diffuse information to physically disconnected groups of individuals The central research questions ask: What are the major hubs, vertically expansive and hierarchically leaderless, of the network of revolution in Egypt and how are these hubs interconnected? Network theory (Watts and Strogatz, 1998; Barabasi, 2002; Galloway and Thacker, 2007; Benkler, 2011; Castells 2011; Castells, Monge and Contractor, 2011) will serve as a framework for understanding how the dispersal of information through virtual networks of communication played a role in facilitating revolution and examine the declining role of hierarchically organized apparatuses of power in a network society NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Statement of Purpose and Background In recent months, the political phenomenon dubbed the “Arab Spring” has swept across the Middle East and Africa, credited by many as the cultural trend of democratization made possible by a century of Western influence, the emergence of new media and a generational flux that has positioned the ideologies of a youthful populace at the helm of a hegemonic shift from the Mediterranean coast of Tunisia to the western borders of Iran As of October 2011, less than a year after the first sign of Spring, the Tunisian revolution that ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the ultimate impact of the Arab Spring has yet to be determined However, this lack of an endgame has not slowed many in the media from declaring clear winners and losers nor populations all over the globe, from Greece to the United States, from taking a page out of the Arab Spring play-book to mimic revolutionary trends treated by many in mainstream media with only superficial analysis Of the clear victors thus far, new media – specifically, social networking platforms that offer a necessary combination of connectivity, anonymity and instant information dissemination – have emerged as champions of social revolution and catalysts of change And, upon superficial glance, it is not hard to see why One need look no further than the numerous Twitter feeds that dominated conversation during the 2011 Egyptian uprisings to imagine the salience of social networking as a major theme in political revolutions However, looking to new media as the cause of recent political turmoil (as many in the mainstream media have done) would be to willfully neglect a repository of pre-existing factors from festering discontent with political figureheads, real-world socialization that predated the virtual network, the influence of popular opposition movements with clear, pre-established political goals and generations of historical hegemonic shifts in populations as different from each other in cultural character as they are in NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION physical dynamic Yet, the impetus to cleanly package social and political revolution and clarify a cause for the change it will no doubt spawn is evident when, in light of the recent Occupy Wall Street protests in the United States that have captured global attention, the question dominating newsfeeds across mainstream media is: “can the Arab Spring happen here?” Less than a half-century after the now infamous false analogy, the “Domino Effect,” peddled by U.S policy-makers as reasoning for military intervention in Vietnam (without action, Cambodia, Burma and Thailand would surely fall to Communism as well, due solely to their proximity to Vietnam), it appears a critical misunderstanding of the cause / effect correlation as well as the complexity of national character as an influencer of hegemonic change still dominate revolution discourse While the emergence of new media tools, characterized as phenomenon of the “Web 2.0” era due to their allowance for user interactivity and global scalability, have certainly played a role in twenty-first century revolution, the importance of that role must be examined with the context of the individual revolutions in mind A conflation of character and prophecies of eventual outcomes of the revolutions in Tunisia, Syria, Libya, Greece, the United States and a host of other countries, are not only premature, they are potentially dangerous if one‟s goal is to understand the influence of the network upon social movement and political revolution Like the media revolutions that came before it, new media must be understood not as a catalyst for change; rather, it should be heralded as a tool of information spreading and an agent of organization Political Revolution Evolves as New Media Emerges Though its invention dates back to the fifteenth century, the pace at which Johannes Gutenberg‟s printing press diffused through mass society (outside of aristocratic circles, that is), NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION attributed to a technological void in industry that, coupled with strict censorship by those in control of capital and production, marred its potential immediate impact Daily newspapers would not emerge in continental Europe for another two centuries and it would be a half-century after that before the first English-language daily circulated through the streets of London (Harrower, 2007) Similarly, it is no coincidence that, though the genre had been steadily emerging since the seventeenth century, the novel would also not receive mass recognition until the midpoint of the nineteenth century – when industry eventually caught up to innovation Seen as an indulgence of pop-culture, the novel awakened a newly literate class of people once it reached the masses It is commonly agreed upon in circles of academic interest that the rise of technology during the Industrial Revolution paved the way for the worldwide social, agricultural, political and military changes endured during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries (Castells, 1996) Similarly, in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, as the Internet gains in popularity amongst the masses, the democratization of communication (Couldry, Livingstone & Markham, 2010) is encouraging idea-sharing and debate in virtual spaces free of issues typically experienced by their „real-world‟ counterparts Once the playground of an elite group of computer hobbyists and programmers (Castells, 1996), the Internet has expanded to include the general populace poised for political influence Historical Precedent for Network Influence When the United States declared its independence on July 4, 1776, the rapid transmission platforms of Twitter and Facebook might not have existed, but this does not mean that a peoplecentered network as diverse as the population within it did not play heavily in the distribution patterns of the revolutionary information Per Congress, a copy of the Declaration of NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Independence was ordered to be printed in every major colonial newspaper as a means of disseminating the information over a vast geographical area Unlike the monopolized printing industry in much of Europe, the colonies represented a vast network populated by postmasters, shopkeepers and even housewives moonlighting as part-time printers as a means of making endsmeet (Library of Congress) Wearing multiple hats, the common colonial printer represented a multi-faceted node with a variety of weak links, as Barabasi (2002) might assess, due to the necessity of occupational diversity The quick distribution and subsequent social influence of the Declaration of Independence, which circulated through every major paper within two weeks (relatively quickly, by eighteenth century standards), in part can be attributed to the structure of the network Unable to rely on a single distributer and the capital which supported mass distribution, the colonists made the best of the talents of amateurs turned publishers and the increasingly affordable tools of distribution The amateurization of the printing industry did not create civil discontent in the colonies, however It merely facilitated the flow of information Contextually, marrying the rise of industry, the rise of literacy and the rise of political revolutions of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries together is hardly a stretch When produced within a system supported by the power of capital (like the printing press was at inception), the influence of message can be contained, managed and disseminated per the interests of the controlling powers (like the sixteenth century Church) However, when the publics acquire the ability to participate in active message dissemination, traditional political structures are threatened, as the newly minted States realized by the end of the eighteenth century In Egypt, specifically, the media characterize a curious complexity that in many ways mirrors the cognitive dissonance of the Egyptian population itself Part governmental mouthpiece NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION by way of state control, part conduit of globalization due to an economically liberal market, the evolution of media in Egypt is not so unlike that of the early United States Perhaps different in regulatory framework, one thing remains the same: when industry evolves to equalize the playing-field of distribution, and message creation and dissemination is placed firmly in the hands of amateurs who represent vast personal networks, not only can information flow, so too can hegemony flux The Use of New Media in Non-Democratic Societies A crucial first step for understanding how media tools support this flow and flux is to understand the context of the community in which they are used And, while drawing hypothetical connections between today‟s world and events of previous centuries provides some insight into the relationship between media tools, pre-established social networks and changing political dynamics, the twenty-first century has provided multiple examples in only its first decade that offer a more equitable comparison On January 16, 2001 thousands of protesters descended upon the historic site of Epifanio de los Santos in Manila to voice their discontent for the president of the Philippines, Joseph Estrada, accused of a list of corruption from mishandling public funds to using illegal income to purchase homes for his mistresses (Castells et al, 2007) Wearing all black to mourn the “death of democracy,” protesters, dubbed Power People II, remained in the town square for four days until Estrada was removed from office by military force on January 20, 2001 The protesters, who organized their demonstration through rapid SMS text-messaging, considered their 4-day standoff a success However, assessing the cause and effect equation simply as protesters arrived day one, president removed day four, and attributing success of the Power People II movement to efficient NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION organization via mobile communication would mean to neglect the nearly three-year anti-Estrada campaign, launched largely on the Internet, that aided in building political momentum that surged behind the temporally and spatially confined protests It would also willfully discount the impact Filipino cultural managers like the Catholic Church had on the progress of the movement and ignore the civil unrest, namely the bombing of a subway by an Islamist militant group, in the months leading up to the protests that had created a climate of fear in the country Collectively, however, when a climate of social unrest, the influence of powerful cultural managers, popular civil discontent with failing government and the influence of technological development are married, a perfect storm of potential for democratic change is formed Despite criticism that one faction (say, the Catholic Church) co-opted the movement as a means to disseminate a politically-steeped agenda (in this case, the middle-class, white-collar defined opposition movement seeking Estrada‟s impeachment), the ability of mobile communication to facilitate and “mobilize civil society when push came to shove,” cannot be discounted (AndradeJimenez as cited in Castells et al, 2007) In non-democratic societies (and, I use that phrase superficially to define those societies whose governmental structures not fit the prototypical hegemonic Western mold of participatory government), the potential, therefore, exists for societal and political change if the power of the people works in tandem with the powerful facilitation provided by available telecommunications platforms that enable mass-connectivity and ubiquitous informationspreading at the hands of the people Transformation of such non-democratic societies is reliant upon democratically developed telecommunications industries that allow for personal autonomy despite political restrictions on governmental practices When push comes to shove, as Andrade- NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION Jimenez (2001) expresses, it is the flow of technological development that will force the ebb of autocratic rule The Technological Democratization of Egypt Of the non-democratic societies that exist in the early twenty-first century, particular attention must be paid to the developing countries of the Middle East, particularly because of their potential for the influence of foreign telecommunications investment and popular demand for global technology When ARABSAT launched its first satellite into space in 1985, telecommunications in the Arab world marked a major period of advancement The ARABSAT project, conceived by the Arab League as early as 1969 and developed with the help of French manufacturer Aerospatiale, represented a burgeoning trend of economic globalization and foreign partnership that would reshape economies and politics throughout the Arab world into the new millennia Though the span of the ARABSAT satellite system, which by 1986 included three satellites, reached across the entirety north of Africa through Saudia Arabia to the East and Sweden to the north, those countries able to own channels within the satellite system were limited to Arab League partners (Rugh, 2004) Unfortunately for Egypt, suspended from the Arab League in 1979 for signing the Camp David Peace Treaty with Israel, participation in broadcast and production of satellite programming would be delayed six years until they launched their own satellite system, NILESAT, in 1991 as a byproduct of the Gulf War While Egypt was excluded from production through the ARABSAT system, this does not mean that Egyptian consumers were blocked access to ARABSAT programming The impact of globalization on the availability of audiovisual equipment cannot be understated in this respect While in 1980, Egyptian-made satellite dish antennas cost consumers roughly 30,000 Egyptian NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 10 pounds, by the early 1990s this cost had significantly dropped to around 1,750 Egyptian pounds, thanks to cheaper imports from Singapore and Taiwan (Guaaybess, 2001) This broadening of the telecommunications market laid the foundation for what Attiga (2000) calls the economic groundwork for democratic growth To Attiga (2000), democracy requires “an acceptable level of social equity in the distribution of wealth, and opportunities for education […],” (p 89) And, while Egypt is a country under strict autocratic control (at least in practice), according to Attiga (2000), the patterns of democratic development can take place even in the absence of political democracy At this point, it is crucial to remember Egypt‟s long and varied past, rife with a hybridity that reflects both its Arab tradition and European influence Though it is easy to oversimplify the country as a strict autocratic regime based on recent civil unrest, Egypt‟s democratic tradition by way of foreign influence is crucial for understanding its political potential When Napoleon first invaded Egypt in 1798, while his military conquest was met with considerable resistance, the influence of the French society – at the time marked by political revolution and civil engagement in evolutionary changes in print communication – infused Western traditions that would persist in Egypt for the next two centuries (Vatikiotis, 1969) The founding of the Institute of Egypt, the country‟s first institution of higher learning, and the print journals the Courrier de l’Egypte, a political journal, and La Decade Egyptienne, a monthly scientific and economic journal, brought about a significant development of the intellectual class in Egypt (Vatikiotis, 1969) Throughout the development of Modern Egypt, the influence of foreign interest persisted, most notably marked by British occupation in the 19th century and the Western-backed construction of the Suez Canal in 1869 Throughout the 20th century, a growing discontent with foreign influence culminated with the overthrow of British-backed monarch Ismail Pasha, a Western sympathizer, NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 29 code that allows for loud conversation in the former setting and whispers in the latter The network setting requires similar protocol, as many who have “loudly” voiced their opinions on a Facebook wall and been subsequently “de-friended” by someone who took offense have discovered Assuming, therefore, that the virtual world is a “free” space in which actors can maneuver without consequence simply because of its ease of access and allowance of anonymity, is an illogical jump when considering its structure While the Internet allows for many opportunities of expression, this “freedom” is intersected by restrictions imposed by network operators, security professionals and government regulation As Benkler (2011) describes it, this intersection illustrates the “destructive myopia” (p 751) that a single-minded view of network utopia presents However, Galloway and Thacker (2007) go one step further in explaining the potential political dangers inherent in networks and challenge the notion that topological power rules all engagement Positing that “networks are only networks when they are „live,‟ when they are enacted, embodied or rendered operational,” (pp 62) the pair challenge the notion of a fixed, abstract network characteristic of earlier models of network theory in lieu of a robust, transitive world of connections in which power is derived through the “distribution and dispersal of action,” (pp 157) The very want to describe a network in terms of hierarchy or verticality, therefore, is reflective of a fixedness – that while of comfort to a world of individuals who exist in static reality – is a disingenuous, and perhaps dangerous, way to look at world of networks The power of the network is derived through movement, not topology Unlike hierarchically organized societies in which removal of any one layer can potentially topple the entire system, networks, as Shirky (2008) points out, are “highly resistant to random damage,” (p 220) What NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 30 this fluidity of relations presupposes is an environment in which a single actor can be multidimensional, embodying multiple roles over various networks Depending on which nodes an actor interacts with – those communities of similar interests or those of opposing values, for example – the dimensions of interactivity will be affected (Contractor, Monge and Leonardi 2011) Therefore, if power, as Benkler (2011) defines it, is determined by one‟s ability to influence what other actors in the network will take as certain, the allowance for that influence will alter based on relational construction between actors within that construct The Flow of Influence within a Network What facilitates movement between hubs, or major nodes of connection, are bridges that sustain a link between the entities Categorized as either strong or weak ties, “bridges,” as they are commonly referred, represent the connections between individuals Strong ties are characterized by those links between individuals that share a close, intense and emotional connection (Prior, 2008) Weak ties are characterized by just the opposite and are defined as informal or casual This is not to suggest that their lack of emotional strength weakens their position within the network; quite the opposite is true Weak ties serve as bridges between groups of people who might not otherwise share a link, thereby reinforcing their indispensability within the network (Prior, 2008), as evidenced by the analogy of the job-seeker Additionally, weak ties not carry the additional burden of pressure to maintain balance between the connected actors (Kilduff and Tsai, 2003) The danger of weak ties, however, is the potential for niche-group building within a network that, at its philosophical core, should be working towards one common goal (Kilduff and Tsai, 2003) In terms of political revolution, however – this might not be such a bad thing NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 31 As Shirky (2008) argues, the bonds created within subversive communities (like those Facebook pages of the Egyptian Revolution) may be strong, however, the translation – or bridge – of a group‟s cultivated values and subsequent action to the real-world is not guaranteed (2008), leaving niche groups isolated to their small world and linked by nothing more than a weak tie, to cultivate their dissidence and hone their message This isolation is key to fertilizing the seeds of change As niche groups rise on the Internet, independent of one another, the ability of the state to target the head of one “movement” is threatened Therefore, even if one group were to be targeted and toppled, various other dissident groups would survive and thrive Based on the Small World network theory posited by Watts and Strogatz (1998), it is easy to see why What encourages and sustains the success of small worlds connected through bridges is simple: make the purpose for collaboration clear for all members of the network, center action around group-driven principles, let those who sustain the network act independently, and encourage communication links between separate, autonomous small groups working in synchronicity (Charan, 1991; Lipnack & Stamps, 1999) Deconstructing Fixedness of the Network Until recently, online interaction has been primarily understood by looking at networked publics as similar to that of offline publics, but this parallel is flawed As Boyd (2011) points out, while the offline publics maneuver within parameters of physical space constructed by atoms, the networked publics maneuvers a virtual world constructed of bits The distinction is important, mainly because of the flexibility of the space that each material defines Lacking fixedness, the online world allows for the duplication and accelerated dissemination of information due to its bits-based structure (Boyd, 2011) To illustrate this point, consider a traditional, tangibly-experienced newspaper Made-up of atoms, the physical material NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 32 requires an extensive (and costly) reproduction process Physically transporting the newspaper from place to place requires temporal flow bound in time and space to the vehicle of transportation (be it a walking human or moving motor vehicle) that acts as conduit of the newspaper‟s flow This architectural difference is crucial to understanding the qualitative differences in space that serve as boundaries for the publics they house In the fixed world, the term “publics” is often defined as “a common understanding of the world, a shared identity, a claim to inclusiveness, a consensus regarding consensus interest,” (Livingstone, 2005) And, while theorists may disagree as to what defines shared identity or inclusiveness, the root of scholarly consensus lies in a common agreement that shared ideology bonds people together And, while a want to simply carry this definition over to the networked world is understandable (it‟s easier, after all), it is inefficient Livingstone‟s (2005) own argument regarding lack of political public efficacy in the online world highlights the strain of this interchange She argues that, unlike government supported-initiatives, as publicly derived movements extend their scope, they lose influence due to a tangible strain of diffusion (2005) Unless supported by an apparatus characterized by physical boundaries, the public stands little chance of actual influence Yet, this argument is grounded in the theoretical presupposition that the “strain of diffusion” in the atom-based, relatively slow-moving conduit-reliant offline world is a carbon copy of the bit-based online space The online world, characterized by four major properties, does not pose the same threat of strain of diffusion upon which Livingstone‟s (2005) argument rests Persistence, replicability, scalability and searchability – all afforded by the bit-based architecture – are key characteristics NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 33 that work together to ease whatever tangible strains the public flow of information may face in the physical world (Boyd, 2011) Persistence refers to the ability of the online-world to archive information – making it available for audiences not bound by time and space Not experiencing the information in the moment of its dissemination does not prevent a user from experiencing it Because the information that is uploaded and stored on the internet can be replicated, this means that its flow is not constrained to a previously determined (and often highly controlled) channel This poses issues of authenticity, as distinctions between the original material and the reproduced material are often difficult to distinguish, but the reach of the information trumps what can be seen as a superficial issue with authenticity Replicibaility naturally leads to scalability in that it promotes far-reaching dissemination, making its potential audience of considerable breadth Finally, as information is archived, duplicated and disseminated through far-reaching channels, this makes its searchability all the more great What these properties allow for is a lack of reliance upon antiquated determinants of social constructs that commonly are seen as necessary for encouraging public efficacy in the offline world Strong connections within social networks are commonly seen as the motivating factor for civic engagement (Couldry, Livingstone & Markham, 2010), but this is challenged when the necessity for tangible connection is eliminated Three distinct characteristics of the online world, invisible audiences, collapsed contexts and the blurring the of public and private (Boyd, 2011) allow for re-imagined influence not typically available in the offline arena Lurkers (the invisible audiences), can access material, gaining new knowledge and even participating anonymously in forum discussions Such actions, as determined by a study of the correlation between online participation and civic engagement conducted by Weiwu et al (2011), NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 34 positively correlate to political efficacy (despite a negative correlation to voting - the researchers‟ Litmus test for ultimate civic engagement – this is problematic, however.) As the online world allows for action not restrained by temporal boundaries, users and audiences alike are able to experience material not restrained to a particular social context (I don‟t need to attend SXSW in order to experience it, thanks to digital media) This alleviates the marginalization of audiences into categorical groupings often restricted by the exclusivity of social capital Finally, when the realms of the public and private are blurred, the nature of hierarchical influence – necessary to offline connections – is re-imagined For example, “Average Joe” postings online often garner as much attention by a viewing audience as those of celebrities What this all translates to is the necessity to re-imagine the nature of influence existent within the networked publics Simply applying the rules of influence in the atom-based world is not enough Until now, research has focused primarily on the correlation of tangible action to tangible influence However, if the audience cannot be seen – how is it possible to monitor the impact of influence? In a politically volatile area, for example, where exposure could lead to consequence like imprisonment, how can the patterns of influence be determined? Further study into the motivations and temporal movements of invisible audiences is necessary to explore this In the landmark agenda-setting study (McCombs & Shaw, 1972) of the influence of news upon the attitudes of information consumers, researchers found that while it is possible to guide what an audience thinks about, it is less likely that media can influence what the personal opinions of that audience Considering the passivity of an information-seeking audience unidirectional tools like the television and print media encourage, understanding why is not a stretch Without active user involvement, the engagement of the consumer is limited to the role NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 35 of knowledge-seeker at best and selective listener at worst What that user does with the information once it has been consumed is left to the motivations of the particular user Linking Disparate Nodes within a Network Transparency between nodes – whether hierarchically or horizontally organized – is necessary if civil engagement is to be achieved At the core of any prescription for successful collaborative group effort is the belief that power rests in the hands of trusting, autonomous small groups able to participate in the creation and outcome of their own network (Charan, 1991; Gratton & Erickson, 2007) As media platforms continue to evolve in the wake of Web 2.0 – a term used to describe the converged and multi-directional face of the current manifestation of the Internet – and as users subsequently become more involved as information creators and disseminators, researchers are finding outcomes that contradict the original findings of the McCombs and Shaw (1972) study In multiple studies cited by Walther et al (2011), computermediated communication (CMC) has been found to influence the opinions of an audience due to its interactive, converged, asynchronous and scalable nature No longer does a user seek knowledge in one arena (print media or television) and physically act upon that knowledge in another (face-to-face conversations with friends, for example) in another; now users can simultaneously seek and act upon knowledge within a single, virtual sphere, all the while shrouded with the protection of anonymity (Walther et al., 2011) In short, the information we encounter online doesn‟t just show us what others may think – it allows us to witness what they as well When trolling a Facebook page, for example, friends of friends can not only engage in conversation, but witness activity such as “liking” a movie, or “checking-in” to locations and engaging in activities that define one‟s interests It is the influence of this activity – or, rather – NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 36 interactivity (as such activity is witnessed by and even commented on by a virtual community) – that distinguishes emerging media platforms from its predecessors By considering both the motivations for information seeking and interpersonal communication, researchers have targeted a need for a hybrid approach to understanding political influence via CMC in the twenty-first century Technological tools must be considered both as conduits of information and agents that can affect the attitudes of users; therefore, understanding the motivations of users – and their psychological dispositions which affect those motivations, is key to understanding the nature of influence, making a strict network analysisbased methodological approach insufficient for determining the socio-psychological power of the network From Exposure to Efficacy While consumers of print media and television are able to seek information, translating newly obtained knowledge to a social setting requires face-to-face interaction Willingness to involve oneself in group conversation, therefore, is influenced by socio-psychological factors of group dynamics that could potentially stifle the opinions of those who fear loss of social capital within a group However, because the online setting affords anonymity and allows users to manage self-representation, holding back unpopular opinions is not typically seen in online settings – especially considering users often purposefully seek online communication in order to express opinions and debate (Walther, 2011) And, as the asynchronous nature of the Internet makes controlling what can be described at best as heated debate and at worst as abusive rhetoric, harder to stifle, the online setting proves a uniquely emotional platform far different from the structured, tailored and highly managed professionally disseminated content of years past, necessitating focus on personal emotions as a NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 37 factor in approaching the nature of influence (Vergeer and Hermans, 2008) As a virtual community housing divergent interest groups, the Internet is a clear battleground for conflict, but does this conflict encourage political action? Weiwu et al (2010) found in their study the use of social networking sites as a determinant for political and civic participation that while use of such sites does not yield a positive correlation to political action, it does yield a positive correlation to civic engagement and action Meaning, while trolling MySpace might not encourage one to vote, it can encourage one to take part in offline activities that support local causes that align with a user‟s interests What encourages political participation is as simple understanding the original intent of the user to seek online engagement in the first place As Weiwu et al (2010) explain, “in essence, the effect of the Internet on civic participation is contingent upon how individuals use the Internet,” (p 78) They conclude that those who actively seek information online for the sake of political involvement will more than likely translate that involvement to the offline world A Case Study of Network Influence In consideration of the 2011 Egyptian revolution, it is important that the individual motivations of users for seeking online content and their belief in the overall efficacy of their online engagement be considered as pivotal factors when correlating the influence of online communication to political action While some are eager to see the Internet as the catalyst of the Egyptian revolution, understanding the cultural and political context of a country eager for change despite the influence of the network is important for understanding the actual role of the network Additionally, by mapping communication through the rhetorical data provided by social networks, patterns that determine hubs, nodes and the bridges and links between them may be determined While it would be perfectly academically legitimate to consider the structure of NETWORK THEORY AND POLITICAL REVOLUTION 38 the network separately from a semantic analysis of the messages within that network, emerging hybrid approaches to understand both, collectively, have emerged throughout the first decade of the twenty-first century urging a dual approach Gilpin (2011) suggests that combining semantic and social network data allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the influence of messages within the network on the individual And, since the Internet features discourse that is visually unique from traditionally documented information (it is often condensed and sparse), marrying approaches that understand the themes of content with the clustering of conversation can allow research not only to recognize, but predict patterns of influence in web-based communication (Yang and Ng, 2011) Vergeer and Hermans (2011) see the benefit of a triangulated approach that combines content analysis, social network analysis and longitudinal analysis as a necessity to achieve a qualitative understanding of online political discourse as a means of not only understanding what a network is, but how and why networking happens The common denominator that calls for a dual approach is a shared belief in the underlying value of the correlation between the socio-psychological constructs of social networking and the physical patterns which result and reflect salient influencers Therefore, with the Egyptian revolution as a major focus of this paper, the following research questions will be considered: R1: What are the major hubs of communication, vertically expansive and hierarchically leaderless, of the network of revolution during the 2011 Egyptian uprisings? R2: How are these major hubs of communication interconnected with one another? R3: Is there a correlation between influential content existent throughout the network and the major hubs of connectivity? 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Additionally, weak ties not carry the additional burden of pressure to maintain balance between the connected actors (Kilduff and Tsai, 2003) The danger of weak ties, however, is the potential for niche-group... order to balance depleting communications budgets In short, economic strains and public demand for “quality” programming deemed unbiased, comparatively, eclipsed ideological platforms aimed at... tools of convergence available to them According to a report from the Egyptian Cabinet‟s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC), the number of blogs had dramatically raised from a few dozen