ECONOMETRICS ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID 19 (SARS cov 2) ON INTERNATIONAL e COMMERCE

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY Faculty of International Business *** SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH “ECONOMETRICS ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) ON INTERNATIONAL E-COMMERCE” SUPERVISOR: Lê Hồng Mỹ Hạnh Submitted by: Group 1912255432 - Lê Minh Tâm 1912255433 - Nguyễn Quốc Thái 1912255437 - Nguyễn Trí Thơng 1912212195 - Trần Minh Khải 1912215304 - Nguyễn Phúc Xuân Ngân Ho Chi Minh City May 20th, 2021 ABSTRACT VIEW We investigate the effects of the Corona virus worldwide, specifically the number of cases and deaths, on E-commerce businesses (Amazon, Alibaba, Jingdong, Ebay and Rakuten) in terms of stock values and interest over time The results show that there is a positive relationship between the pandemic (cases and deaths) and the performance of E-commerce businesses In detail, stock values rise considerably and interest over time also increases compared to pre-COVID times Table of Contents Introduction Literature review 2.1 Previous studies 2.2 Overall effect of COVID-19 Methodology and Data .7 3.1 Descriptive statistics 3.2 Data description 3.3 Hypotheses 10 3.4 Method of research 11 3.5 Model 11 Result 12 4.1 Pearson correlation coefficients 12 4.2 OLS model results and problems with the model 12 4.3 Correction and final result 13 4.4 Limitations 15 Conclusion and Recommendation 16 5.1 Conclusion 16 5.2 Recommendation 17 APPENDIX REFERENCES 19 APPENDIX TABLES AND FIGURES 20 Introduction The E-commerce business has been gaining considerable growth since the appearance of world-changing innovations like the Internet, World Wide Web and more recently and also having a deep influence in our life - smartphones Stepping into the age of technology, traditional methods of commercials are getting outdated and proving to be inefficient Due to its reliance on physical interaction, the reach is, most of the time, limited to a particular geographical area Meanwhile, E-commerce is computed digitally and online, therefore broadening its reach to potentially everyone and everywhere around the globe In short, it is commonly recognized that Ecommerce has integrated itself as an inseparable part of the world’s development However, there has been another major event that has changed the world we live in since 2020 - COVID-19 It is a global consensus that during the pandemic, almost every aspect of our personal life and every field of jobs are negatively affected to a certain extent Noticeably, the decrease in revenue, adjustment in the workforce and job market, disrupted supply chain have all taken a big toll on numerous companies worldwide Therefore, many people have been speculating whether there is any relationship between one of the most important businesses in our society (E-commerce) and the current COVID-19 pandemic More specifically, we will be looking into the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths everyday in the year 2020 to determine their effects on the biggest E-commerce businesses right now - Amazon, Alibaba, Jingdong, Ebay and Rakuten For the companies, we will be looking into their stock prices and interest over time of each company Understanding the effects of COVID-19 on these companies’ performance will be important because of two reasons Firstly, it will provide us with a better idea of whether E-commerce businesses are affected negatively or positively by the pandemic Secondly, it will help us predict necessary actions to take in the future in order to minimize the threats (if any) and maximize the potential For instance, the increase in the number of cases and deaths has made the stock price of these firms rise or fall? If we find that there is a positive effect in these companies' financial indicators, we may conclude that the pandemic does not negatively affect these companies but rather supports its business And if the previous statement is true, what further action steps can we take to be more successful and adapt with the new normal in the future when the pandemic still continues This paper’s analysis is based on the methodology presented in the research paper published by MBA Nguyễn Hoàng Nam (2021)[1] In this paper, he managed to quantify the effect of COVID-19 on Vietnam’s economic activities by constructing six hypotheses Moreover, we are also inspired by the publication of Hung-Hao Chang and Chad Meyerhoefer (2020)[2], in which they utilized Ubox, the largest business-toconsumer agri-food E-commerce platform in Taiwan, as dependent variables to measure the of COVID-19 on the demand and growth of online food platforms Literature review 2.1 Previous studies According to the study of United Nations Publications [3], the widespread pandemic caused a sharp deceleration in financial activities for which businesses were generally ill-equipped However, a noticeable effect of the raging pandemic has been the transition of multiple firms to E-commerce stemming from the requirement for necessity of moving online This report makes a preparatory appraisal of the effect of the COVID-19 emergency on E-commerce It incorporates overviews of E-commerce businesses and customers and its accomplices within the eTrade for all activity, examinations by other multilateral offices, and inquiries embraced by the United Nation Organization In addition, the study of Luis Varona and Jorge R Gonzales (2021) [4] analyzed the short-term behavioral dynamics of economic activity, as well as explained the causal relationships in the COVID-19 pandemic context is based on the baseline amount of COVID-19 transmission per day Research data was collected with economic variables, including: economic activity index, public expenditure index, real interest rate index, exchange rate index, international dong price index, index stock price numbers of the Lima Stock Exchange, The study uses the ARDL model to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the economy of Peru The research results show that there is a negative effect with the expected sign, the statistical significance is Moreover, Akbulaev et al.'s study (2020) [5] focuses on the economic impact of COVID-19 The study assessed the impact of COVID-19 on the economy in many aspects, from the impact on production, employment, import and export, to the analysis of the State's support for producers in the mandatory quarantine Last but not least, the study by Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey and Richard Bar (2021) [6] aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on poverty reduction and global GDP by measuring at the heterogeneous effects of each country Data utilized was collected from 170 countries, using econometric panel techniques such as OLS and squared regression to determine the result Variables included in the study were total COVID-19 cases, total confirmed deaths, rigor index, human development index, and gross domestic product per capita The study's findings indicate that the severity of many people's conditions and the rise of the disease have negatively impacted poverty alleviation and economic growth However, the deaths recorded to date positively affect both poverty reduction and economic growth This development signals the nature of controlling population growth as it hinders economic growth and poverty alleviation 2.2 Overall effect of COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the global economy, leaving many people around the world in dire straits COVID-19 has created some uncertainty regarding economic and social policies From a business perspective, the epidemic has had a negative impact on the finance and various other industries Currently, the potential impact of COVID-19 on globalization and global health in terms of mobility, trade, travel and the most affected countries is absolutely volatile, which is terrifying The world economic order and activit ies are changing drastically as most countries are going through a period of stay-at-home isolation, social distancing and even nationwide shutdown Amid the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed the world financial advance Development confinements has hindered financial activities in most regions and countries However, COVID-19 has had varied effects on different regions and countries depending on the time, concentration of the infected cases and the nation’s own financial status Developing countries and least developing countries, as well as their population, are more prone to worldwide financial downturns and recessions than ever On the other hand, a few nations, especially those within the Asia-Pacific locale, have experienced moderate contamination rates in later months of the pandemic, permitting for a speedier return to pre-pandemic levels of financial movement than others, especially those in Europe and the Americas, which were anticipated to encounter many more waves of COVID-19 cases by late 2020 Nevertheless, as stated above, with no absolute evidences nor any solid patterns of the future development of the virus, virologists and economists could only guess what will happen in the future Methodology and Data 3.1 Descriptive statistics The variables utilized in this research paper are as follow in this table, with the source and time frame included: Variable Description Source Expecte d sign Time amzn The stock price of Amazon baba The stock price of Alibaba NASDAQ.com 01/11/2019 jd The stock price of Jingdong (The Nasdaq - ebay The stock price of Ebay Stock Market) 23/04/2021 rkuny The stock price of Rakuten amznint Amazon’s Interest over time babaint Alibaba’s Interest over time jdint Jingdong’s Interest over time Google Trend This is left blank as Expecte Variable ebayint rkunyint Description Source d sign Ebay’s Interest over time we not Rakuten’s interest over time intend to study their effects nc Daily new confirmed cases Time 01/11/2019 23/04/2021 +/- of COVID-19 ttc Total confirmed cases of +/- COVID-19 nd Daily new confirmed deaths worldometer.co m +/- of COVID-19 ttd Total confirmed deaths of +/- COVID-19 Table Variables description 3.2 Data description We use data from several sources to conduct our analysis, including information about coronavirus cases and death cases worldwide, stock prices of E-commerce companies, and interest over time of those 3.2.1 Coronavirus cases/deaths From a reliable source of information about COVID-19 on Worldometer.com, we obtain the number of confirmed and death cases over the year of 2020 Confirmed cases were validated by the COVID-19 test which is different from suspected cases in which patients only have the early symptoms of COVID-19 Death cases are confirmed immediately after the COVID-19 patients deceased In addition, confirmed death cases are also cases in which the patients are already dead when testing reveals the residuals or presence of COVID-19 virus.[Table A.1 (Appendix2)] 3.2.2 Stock prices Stock price provides one measure of the efficiency of that company operating during the COVID-19 It also has daily data, which, along with cases and deaths of COVID- 19, assists us in constructing the panel data set on a daily level Thus we chose to study the effect of COVID-19 on E-commerce companies’ stock prices collected from the Nasdaq Stock market In the publication of Hung-Hao Chang and Chad Meyerhoefer (2020) [2], they utilized the financial statistics Ubox, the largest business-to-consumer agri-food Ecommerce platform in Taiwan, as dependent variables to measure the of COVID-19 on the demand and growth of online food platforms With their resourceful database, they successfully constructed an extensive and detailed panel data set to efficiently estimate the effect the pandemic has caused on Ubox’s statistics and to draw conclusion about its impact on the industry As this method proves to be an interesting and efficient way to achieve the desirable results, after referencing various reports and articles, we selected five companies that are consensually deemed as the top ranking ones of the E-commerce industry around the globe as the basis to statistically demonstrate the effect of COVID-19 These companies are, ranked respectively in order of higher to lower: Amazon, Alibaba, Jingdong, Ebay and Rakuten They will work as the representatives of the industry of E-commerce as a whole for this research; thus, the impact of COVID-19 on them will then be concluded as the effect to the industry itself The data will be collected from 01/11/2019 to 31/12/2020, as we wish to include the growth of the stock price during the pre-COVID period of time into account for a more precise calculation (*)1.[Table A.2 (Appendix 2)] 3.2.2 Interest over time When diseases break out in many countries, social distancing is mandatory in many countries People have to stay at home and thus have difficulty with shopping in stores and markets which have a high rate of coronavirus affection As a result, people turned to shopping online through many different E-commerce platforms We have researched the data for selected companies’ volume of searches on the search engine of Google, (*) Because the Nasdaq stock market not open on Saturdays and Sundays, the timeline will have missing values 10 as it is the most popular engine, from November 2019 to April 2021 Utilizing the extension Google trend, which is specified in measuring the Internet users’ interest in a topic or a search term in a period of time, we obtained the interest over time (**)2 of the chosen companies The fact that companies have a high interest over time percentage means they are increasing in popularity in that time range, which in turn means they are becoming more favorable in purchasing Consequently, we believe it would be a factor affecting the firms’ stock prices [Table A.3 (Appendix 2)] 3.3 Hypotheses Conducting this research, we based our analysis off the methodology presented in the research paper published by MBA Nguyễn Hoàng Nam (2021) [1] In this publication, he constructed six hypotheses in order to measure the impact of COVID19 on Vietnam’s economic activities These hypotheses are as follow - H1: COVID-19 has an effect on Vietnam’s Exchange rate - H2: COVID-19 has an effect on gold price - H3: COVID-19 has an effect on oil price, - H4: COVID-19 has an effect on silver price - H5: COVID-19 has an effect on cooper price, - H6: COVID-19 has an effect on VN-index Utilizing his model, he successfully managed to numerically quantify the effect COVID-19 has on the growth of these financial indicators, thus proving that COVID19 has an influence on Vietnam’s economic activities’ development Inspired by Mr.Nam's methodology and models, we established our own hypotheses in order to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the state of the worldwide Ecommerce industry These hypotheses, which would serve as the foundation for our final claim and results in this paper, are: (**) Interest over time: Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular A score of means there was not enough data for this term (Source: Google Trend) 64 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 3/6/2020 4/6/2020 5/6/2020 8/6/2020 9/6/2020 10/6/2020 11/6/2020 12/6/2020 15/6/2020 16/6/2020 17/6/2020 18/6/2020 19/6/2020 22/6/2020 23/6/2020 24/6/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 79 58 57 93 90 42 82 84 88 79 79 57 57 90 90 82 75 88 88 76 76 54 54 92 92 75 75 78 78 76 76 54 54 92 92 100 100 78 78 76 78 54 53 92 86 100 100 78 74 78 78 53 53 86 86 100 53 74 74 78 78 53 53 86 86 53 53 74 74 77 77 56 56 87 87 46 46 82 82 77 56 87 46 82 65 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 25/6/2020 26/6/2020 29/6/2020 30/6/2020 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 6/7/2020 7/7/2020 8/7/2020 9/7/2020 10/7/2020 13/7/2020 14/7/2020 15/7/2020 16/7/2020 17/7/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 77 58 56 93 87 42 46 84 82 77 78 56 59 87 88 46 54 82 79 78 78 59 59 88 88 54 54 79 79 78 76 59 60 88 83 54 54 79 74 76 76 60 60 83 83 52 52 74 74 76 76 60 60 83 83 52 52 74 74 78 78 58 58 83 83 45 45 78 78 78 78 58 58 83 83 45 45 78 78 78 58 83 45 78 66 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 20/7/2020 21/7/2020 22/7/2020 23/7/2020 24/7/2020 27/7/2020 28/7/2020 29/7/2020 30/7/2020 31/7/2020 3/8/2020 4/8/2020 5/8/2020 6/8/2020 7/8/2020 10/8/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 77 58 58 93 84 42 48 84 79 77 77 58 54 84 84 48 48 79 79 77 77 54 54 84 84 48 48 79 79 75 75 54 54 79 79 50 50 80 80 75 75 54 54 79 79 50 50 80 80 75 72 54 56 79 79 50 46 80 73 72 72 56 56 79 79 46 46 73 73 72 72 56 56 79 79 46 64 73 73 74 61 80 64 74 67 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 11/8/2020 12/8/2020 13/8/2020 14/8/2020 17/8/2020 18/8/2020 19/8/2020 20/8/2020 21/8/2020 24/8/2020 25/8/2020 26/8/2020 27/8/2020 28/8/2020 31/8/2020 1/9/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 74 58 61 93 80 42 64 84 74 74 74 61 57 80 80 64 64 74 74 74 75 57 57 80 79 64 62 74 73 75 75 57 57 79 79 62 62 73 73 75 75 57 57 79 79 62 57 73 73 75 75 53 53 77 77 57 57 85 85 75 75 53 53 77 77 57 52 85 85 75 73 53 53 77 77 52 52 85 88 73 53 77 52 88 68 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 2/9/2020 3/9/2020 4/9/2020 8/9/2020 9/9/2020 10/9/2020 11/9/2020 14/9/2020 15/9/2020 16/9/2020 17/9/2020 18/9/2020 21/9/2020 22/9/2020 23/9/2020 24/9/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 73 58 53 93 77 42 52 84 88 73 73 53 53 77 77 57 57 88 88 71 71 48 48 74 76 57 57 73 73 71 71 48 48 74 74 57 57 73 73 69 69 49 49 74 75 45 45 70 70 69 69 49 49 74 74 45 45 70 70 69 71 49 51 75 74 45 48 70 72 71 71 51 51 74 74 48 48 72 72 71 52 74 48 72 69 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 25/9/2020 28/9/2020 29/9/2020 30/9/2020 1/10/2020 2/10/2020 5/10/2020 6/10/2020 7/10/2020 8/10/2020 9/10/2020 12/10/2020 13/10/2020 14/10/2020 15/10/2020 16/10/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 71 58 52 93 77 42 48 84 72 73 73 52 52 74 74 37 37 75 75 73 73 52 52 77 74 37 37 75 75 73 91 52 53 75 78 37 37 75 73 91 91 53 53 78 78 53 53 73 73 91 91 53 53 78 78 53 53 73 73 78 78 53 55 78 76 56 56 73 70 78 78 55 55 76 76 56 56 70 70 78 55 76 56 70 70 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 19/10/2020 20/10/2020 21/10/2020 22/10/2020 23/10/2020 26/10/2020 27/10/2020 28/10/2020 29/10/2020 30/10/2020 2/11/2020 3/11/2020 4/11/2020 5/11/2020 6/11/2020 9/11/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 79 58 58 93 78 42 50 84 75 79 79 58 59 78 78 50 50 75 75 79 79 58 58 78 78 50 50 75 75 73 73 74 74 70 70 62 62 75 75 73 73 74 74 70 70 62 62 75 75 73 83 74 62 70 80 62 83 75 77 83 83 62 62 80 80 83 83 77 77 83 83 62 62 80 80 83 83 77 77 92 62 85 76 82 71 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 10/11/2020 11/11/2020 12/11/2020 13/11/2020 16/11/2020 17/11/2020 18/11/2020 19/11/2020 20/11/2020 23/11/2020 24/11/2020 25/11/2020 27/11/2020 30/11/2020 1/12/2020 2/12/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 92 58 54 93 85 42 76 84 82 92 92 54 54 85 85 76 76 82 82 92 97 54 54 85 84 76 72 82 85 97 97 54 54 84 84 72 72 85 85 97 97 54 54 84 84 72 72 85 85 96 96 50 50 85 85 61 61 99 99 96 96 50 50 85 85 61 61 99 99 94 94 50 54 82 82 78 78 96 96 94 54 82 78 96 72 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 3/12/2020 4/12/2020 7/12/2020 8/12/2020 9/12/2020 10/12/2020 11/12/2020 14/12/2020 15/12/2020 16/12/2020 17/12/2020 18/12/2020 21/12/2020 22/12/2020 23/12/2020 24/12/2020 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 94 58 54 93 82 42 78 84 96 94 94 54 54 82 82 78 58 96 87 94 94 54 50 79 79 58 58 87 87 94 94 50 50 76 79 58 58 87 87 86 86 54 54 77 79 59 59 90 90 86 86 54 54 75 79 59 59 90 90 86 83 54 66 79 71 59 58 90 79 83 83 66 66 71 71 58 58 79 79 83 66 71 58 79 73 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 28/12/2020 29/12/2020 30/12/2020 31/12/2020 4/1/2021 5/1/2021 6/1/2021 7/1/2021 8/1/2021 11/1/2021 12/1/2021 13/1/2021 14/1/2021 15/1/2021 19/1/2021 20/1/2021 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 79 58 78 93 77 42 63 84 72 79 79 78 78 77 77 63 63 72 72 79 77 78 78 77 75 63 52 72 78 77 77 78 100 75 75 52 52 78 78 77 77 100 100 75 75 52 52 78 78 76 76 100 100 76 76 53 53 75 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 53 53 75 75 76 75 76 74 76 79 53 59 75 89 75 74 79 59 89 74 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 21/1/2021 22/1/2021 25/1/2021 26/1/2021 27/1/2021 28/1/2021 29/1/2021 1/2/2021 2/2/2021 3/2/2021 4/2/2021 5/2/2021 8/2/2021 9/2/2021 10/2/2021 11/2/2021 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 75 58 74 93 79 42 59 84 89 75 75 74 74 79 78 59 52 89 88 75 75 65 65 78 78 52 52 88 88 75 75 65 65 78 78 41 41 88 88 69 69 68 68 73 73 41 41 84 84 69 69 68 68 73 73 41 41 84 84 69 68 68 68 73 76 43 43 84 81 68 68 55 55 76 76 43 43 81 80 68 55 76 43 82 75 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 12/2/2021 16/2/2021 17/2/2021 18/2/2021 19/2/2021 22/2/2021 23/2/2021 24/2/2021 25/2/2021 26/2/2021 1/3/2021 2/3/2021 3/3/2021 4/3/2021 5/3/2021 8/3/2021 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 68 58 55 93 76 42 43 84 81 66 66 57 57 73 73 48 48 81 83 66 66 57 57 73 73 48 48 81 81 70 70 61 61 74 74 54 54 95 95 70 70 61 61 74 74 54 54 95 95 70 68 61 61 74 72 54 57 95 93 68 68 61 61 72 72 57 57 93 93 68 68 61 61 72 72 57 57 93 93 66 64 71 54 80 76 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 9/3/2021 10/3/2021 11/3/2021 12/3/2021 15/3/2021 16/3/2021 17/3/2021 18/3/2021 19/3/2021 22/3/2021 23/3/2021 24/3/2021 25/3/2021 26/3/2021 29/3/2021 30/3/2021 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 66 58 64 93 71 42 54 84 80 66 66 64 64 71 71 54 54 80 80 66 71 64 62 71 72 54 53 80 83 71 71 62 62 72 72 53 53 83 83 71 71 62 62 72 72 53 53 83 83 71 71 63 63 71 71 55 55 86 86 71 71 63 63 71 71 55 55 86 86 71 66 63 61 71 70 55 50 86 82 66 61 70 50 82 77 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 31/3/2021 1/4/2021 5/4/2021 6/4/2021 7/4/2021 8/4/2021 9/4/2021 12/4/2021 13/4/2021 14/4/2021 15/4/2021 16/4/2021 19/4/2021 20/4/2021 21/4/2021 22/4/2021 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 66 58 61 93 70 42 50 84 82 66 67 61 61 70 68 50 54 82 82 67 67 60 60 68 68 54 54 76 76 67 67 60 60 68 68 54 54 76 76 65 65 63 63 69 69 56 56 76 72 65 65 63 63 69 69 56 56 72 72 65 69 63 55 69 65 56 60 72 81 69 69 55 55 65 65 60 60 82 82 69 55 65 60 82 78 Date 1/11/2019 4/11/2019 5/11/2019 6/11/2019 7/11/2019 8/11/2019 11/11/2019 12/11/2019 13/11/2019 14/11/2019 15/11/2019 18/11/2019 19/11/2019 20/11/2019 21/11/2019 22/11/2019 25/11/2019 26/11/2019 27/11/2019 29/11/2019 2/12/2019 23/4/2021 Amazon's Interest over time Alibaba's interest over time Ebay's interest over time Jingdong's interest over time Ratsuken's interest over time 70 70 55 55 92 92 48 61 68 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 70 70 55 55 92 92 61 61 67 67 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 82 88 88 91 91 40 40 72 72 82 100 88 56 91 94 40 38 72 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 100 100 56 56 94 94 38 38 80 80 91 91 65 65 94 97 37 37 91 91 91 91 65 65 97 97 37 37 91 91 85 69 58 55 93 65 42 60 84 82 *Due to the massive number of calculations on Stata, we regrettably were unable to include them in the research paper We assure you every result shown on this paper is according to the calculations we performed on Stata with absolutely no falsification ... further research in the future into the effect of COVID- 19 to E- commerce and other industries as well Conclusion and Recommendation 5.1 Conclusion Because of the widespread of COVID- 19 pandemic,... index, international dong price index, index stock price numbers of the Lima Stock Exchange, The study uses the ARDL model to measure the impact of COVID- 19 on the economy of Peru The research... companies in the industry This can be deemed as biased because their relations with COVID- 19 might not be the best measurement of the pandemic’s effect on the industry as a whole, because the effect