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ISBN 978-0-7559-8271-4
THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC
RECOVERY PLAN:
ACCELERATING RECOVERY
WEALTHIER & FAIRER SMARTER HEALTHIER SAFER & STRONGER
GREENER
© Crown copyright 2010
This document is also available on the Scottish Government website:
www.scotland.gov.uk
RR Donnelley B63580 03/10
Further copies of the document are available on request
Please contact 0131 244 3342 or
EconomicStrategyDirectorate@scotland.gsi.gov.uk
3 March 2010
The Scottish Government, 2010
THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC
RECOVERY PLAN:
ACCELERATING RECOVERY
© Crown copyright 2010
ISBN: 978-0-7559-8271-4
The Scottish Government
St Andrew’s House
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG
Produced for the Scottish Government by RR Donnelley B63580 03/10
Published by the Scottish Government, February 2010
Further copies of this document are available on request
Please contact 0131 244 3342
or EconomicStrategyDirectorate@scotland.gsi.gov.uk
100% of this document is printed on recycled paper and is 100% recyclable
1
WEALTHIER & FAIRER SMARTER HEALTHIER SAFER & STRONGER GREENER
THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN:
ACCELERATING RECOVERY
CONTENTS
FOREWORD 2
1. INTRODUCTION 4
2. THE ECONOMY 11
The global economy 11
The Scottish economy 12
Impact on industry sectors 14
Impacts by age group and occupation 15
Impact on the regions of Scotland 16
Future prospects for the Scottish economy 16
3. INVESTING IN INNOVATION AND INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE 18
The low carbon economy 18
Scotland’s Key Sectors 22
Infrastructure investment 26
The central importance of internationalisation 27
Planning 29
Access to finance 31
Management and leadership 32
Procurement 33
Innovation 35
Remaining responsive to business concerns 36
4. STRENGTHENING EDUCATION AND SKILLS 39
Support for skills and training 39
Preventing new long-term unemployment 42
Providing additional opportunities for young people 44
Tailored learning support for those furthest from the labour market 45
Managing increased demand for education 45
5. SUPPORTING JOBS AND COMMUNITIES 47
Public sector capital investment 47
Supporting the regeneration and growth of our town centres 49
Maximising the community and employment impact of new housing 49
Supporting households 50
Public sector efficiency 52
FOREWORD
This is a time of transformation in global and domestic markets.
As economies around the world strengthen, new competitive
pressures will shape the structure of our economy. The labour
market pressures that emerged through the deepest recession in
living memory may continue for some time, but the next phase
of the economic cycle also heralds new opportunities for Scottish
businesses to develop new markets, and grow existing ones.
Across the public sector, our task is to remain responsive to the
new conditions. We must align behind the task of accelerating
our recovery and meet the challenge of maintaining the most supportive environment
for a strong recovery.
This update to the Economic Recovery Plan sets out a number of priorities for the
coming months.
Scotland’s future lies in the development of a low carbon economy. We are starting a
conversation on what that will mean in practice. Our commitments on renewables
and carbon capture and storage will help lead to the development of major new
industries in Scotland, and major new sources of employment.
In rapidly developing global markets, Scotland’s competitive exchange rate brings the
prospect of developing larger international markets for Scottish goods and services.
We will deliver additional support for Scottish businesses to internationalise. Building
on the success of Homecoming, we can also capitalise on the current conditions to
bring new visitors and new inward investment to Scotland.
Development in Scotland will be supported by an improved planning regime to
streamline support for new investment, continuing the major progress made since
2007.
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WEALTHIER & FAIRER SMARTER HEALTHIER SAFER & STRONGER GREENER
Contraction in the availability of finance lay at the heart of the recession, and access to
finance will be a necessary condition of a strong recovery. The latest Scottish Access to
Finance Survey shows some improvement in conditions for SMEs seeking finance. We
will reinforce this improvement through the continued development of the Scottish
Investment Bank this year.
Scotland’s natural and intellectual assets are world class, but for some time we have
failed to turn this into commercial success. We will scale up our support to
commercialise innovation in Scotland. And with our partners across the public sector,
we will place a renewed focus on improving leadership and management skills in
Scottish business.
Our major package of skills and training support, ScotAction, has supported flexibility
in the Scottish workforce through the pressures of recession. As growth returns to the
Scottish economy, employment risks remain. The Scottish Government can achieve a
great deal with the levers at its disposal, but as we attempt to accelerate our recovery,
we are undermined by the UK Government’s decision to remove its fiscal stimulus in
2010. The Treasury has an opportunity to support our Economic Recovery Plan by
releasing funds for further capital acceleration, allowing us to directly support
businesses and jobs across Scotland. We will continue to make the case in the run-up
to the UK 2010 Budget.
John Swinney MSP
Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth
1. INTRODUCTION
This update to the Scottish Government’s Economic Recovery Plan is the first to come
at a time of rising UK GDP output. The Scottish economy, in common with that of
other developed countries, has not been immune to the stresses of a major recession,
with falls in output and increased pressures on employment. But as the rate of decline
in output eases and growth begins to return to areas of the economy, we can now
reflect more accurately on the long-term impacts of recession, and on the outlook for
the post-recession economy in Scotland.
The Plan has developed through an ongoing dialogue with Scotland’s businesses,
academics, community groups and individuals. With our partners in local government
and the Third Sector, we have developed a deeper assessment of the impacts of
recession across Scotland. As the public sector aligns behind a central theme of
accelerating recovery, a number of central priorities emerge for the coming year. Our
efforts are centred on stimulating lasting improvements in Scotland’s long-term
economic performance – in line with the Government Economic Strategy – through
three broad themes: Investing in innovation and industries of the future;
Strengthening education and skills; and Supporting jobs and communities.
Accelerating recovery
Optimism as As the world economy emerges from the deepest recession of a
growth generation, a global recovery is now underway. In Scotland,
returns growth returned to parts of the economy in the second half of
2009, with signs of further improvement in the last three months
of the year. As the recovery takes hold, there are still uncertainties:
growth in Scotland is only in its fragile early stages and the
fundamental impacts on the ‘real’ economy of a recession rooted
in financial market turmoil will not be fully apparent for some time.
But this is also a time of new dynamism in global and domestic
markets, where new trading links between partners can be forged.
The rebalancing that has already begun across the global
economy, will bring new opportunities for Scottish businesses in
new markets. And within Scotland, the domestic economy has
also begun to adapt to the post-recession conditions.
There are grounds for optimism in this new dynamic environment.
Scotland can continue to develop and exploit its rich comparative
advantages. We can further expand our international trade, taking
advantage of a newly competitive exchange rate to enter new
export markets. Scotland is a world-class destination for visitors
and for new investment – our tourism industry outperformed the
rest of the world in 2009 – and our education and skills base
continues to provide a platform for new employment
opportunities.
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WEALTHIER & FAIRER SMARTER HEALTHIER SAFER & STRONGER GREENER
Alignment across the public sector
The private sector will lead Scotlands recovery; the task for the
public sector is to maintain a flexible, responsive approach as
changes unfold over the coming months. Through the alignment
of key services and activities, and by maintaining our focus on
those key sectors that best exploit Scotland’s global competitive
advantages, we can create a supportive framework for sustained
improvement in our future economic growth.
Priorities as The Economic Recovery Plan has mobilised a range of cross-public
we enter new sector activities, designed to support the Scottish economy
growth through the pressures of a deep global recession. The Plan has
supported employment – directly through accelerated public
sector spending, and indirectly through our support for skills – and
it has mitigated some of the worst impacts of recession on
Scotland’s communities. These steps were part of the immediate
response to recession, but they have been designed to leave a
lasting positive impact.
As we begin to enter a new period of growth, a number of new
priorities emerge for the coming months.
Developing a low carbon economy
Scotland’s primary new economic opportunity lies in the
development of a low carbon economy. Addressing the major
economic costs of climate change is an economic and
environmental imperative. We have already taken a lead with the
most ambitious emission reduction targets in the world and the
move to low carbon is a necessary condition of meeting these
obligations.
Opening Scotland’s enviable natural resources, research expertise, and
discussion on industrial base provide the foundations to capitalise on the future
low carbon growth of renewable energy, carbon capture and storage, and
improvements in energy efficiency. We will shortly publish a
discussion document on the implications of the move to low
carbon for the Scottish economy.
Renewables The recent consent for the upgrade of electricity infrastructure
from Beauly to Denny releases huge potential to develop
Scotland’s renewables sector, where over 600MW of additional
capacity has been consented in the past 12 months, with a further
almost 2.7GW in the planning pipeline.
6 THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN: ACCELERATING RECOVERY
Offshore Offshore wind is the biggest near-to-market opportunity in
wind Scotland’s low carbon economy. The recently published National
Renewables Infrastructure Plan identifies a range of near-term
infrastructure needs and investment opportunities. We are now
developing a comprehensive off-shore wind route map with key
industry and public sector bodies, which will detail the steps to
create tens of thousands of new Scottish jobs and over £20 billion
of investment by 2020.
Carbon capture The Scottish Government will shortly publish a roadmap for the
storage development of a carbon capture and storage industry in Scotland,
setting key milestones for the creation of thousands of additional
jobs in the future.
Environmental The Scottish Government, Scotland’s Enterprise Agencies, the
and clean Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the academic
technologies sector are working together to develop a strategy to support the
development of the environmental and clean technologies sector
in Scotland. In the Spring, we will begin engagement with key
stakeholders to inform the development of this strategy.
Supporting internationalisation
A number of factors now come together to make increased
internationalisation one of the central priorities for the acceleration
of the Scottish recovery.
Correction of It is now apparent that there were major, unsustainable
global imbalances within the world economy as it entered recession.
imbalances These were most obvious in the financial sector, but they have also
influenced other globally traded sectors. As these imbalances are
corrected, we are likely to see a repositioning of individual
economies in the global economy, and restructuring of industrial
sectors within these economies. Financial and trade flows will alter,
bringing new opportunities for Scotland to exploit its comparative
advantages.
Developing Pre-recession, demand was supported by relatively cheap credit,
new sources and wealth generated by a decade-long boom in house price
of demand growth. Post-recession, we will have to look particularly to foreign
markets to support further growth in the demand for Scotland’s
goods and services.
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WEALTHIER & FAIRER SMARTER HEALTHIER SAFER & STRONGER GREENER
Competitive The movement in exchange rates over the course of the last
exchange rate 18 months now makes Scotland even more competitive in export
markets. The competitive exchange rate will act as a platform to
attract new visitors to Scotland, and new inward investment. The
latest business surveys suggest that the decline in exports from
Scottish firms may have started to bottom out, with some sectors
experiencing an increase in export activity in the second half of
2009. There was also some encouragement from the small
increase in manufactured exports in the third quarter of 2009.
Scaling-up Across the public sector, we are capitalising on these conditions,
support for scaling-up the promotion of Scottish business abroad, and
exports providing new support for Scottish businesses to look to
international markets.
Scottish Development International (SDI), and its partners, will
boost its international activity with a focus on raising the
international aspirations of more Scottish businesses to trade
globally, a broader engagement with Scottish businesses and a
more intense focus on helping Scottish firms to understand
international market opportunities in their sector. This is
accompanied by a renewed strategy to target inward investment
opportunities where Scotland has a strong global position.
Tourism The interim evaluation has demonstrated the success of last year’s
Homecoming Scotland initiative in raising tourism revenue and
delivering a range of wider benefits to the Scottish economy.
Scotland outperformed the rest of the world in 2009. On average
global tourism declined by between 7 and 9% but in Scotland,
revenues remained relatively constant with only a 1.6% decline by
the third quarter. The movement in exchange rates continues to
make Scotland an attractive destination for overseas visitors to
Scotland and has also boosted the ‘staycation’ effect, encouraging
domestic UK visitors to Scotland. The Scottish Government will roll
out a series of further initiatives to ensure a legacy for
Homecoming.
Continuing the improvement of Scotland’s
planning system
Aligning to Since 2007, the Scottish Government has made a series of
support improvements to the planning system in Scotland, recognising its
development central importance to the Government Economic Strategy. Subject
to Parliamentary approval, planning fees will rise by 10% in April
2010 in order to ensure planning authorities are appropriately
resourced to contribute to economic recovery.
[...]... and skills across the public sector more broadly 9 10 THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN: ACCELERATING RECOVERY Over the course of the coming year, we will continue to align public sector activity towards employability and the maximisation of employment opportunities We will build on the recent success of the Integrating Employment and Skills pilots – which have brought together the services of Skills... months 17 18 THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN: ACCELERATING RECOVERY 3 INVESTING IN INNOVATION AND INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE One of the major impacts of recession is to reveal the extent of imbalance within the global economy As these imbalances are corrected, we are likely to see the repositioning of economies within the global economy, and restructuring of industrial sectors within these economies... of 51,000 over the year 78 Scottish & UK Employment Rate 77 76 Percent 75 74 73 72 Scotland UK 71 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 13 14 THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN: ACCELERATING RECOVERY Impact on industry sectors Broad-based The recession has impacted on most sectors of the Scottish decline in economy, with the majority experiencing a decline in output output The sectors, which... 12 THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN: ACCELERATING RECOVERY Continued weakening in the labour market The rate of change in labour market conditions has also varied considerably across countries, although the most recent figures indicate a general easing in the rate of increase in unemployment rates across most countries The US has witnessed one of the sharpest increases in unemployment, with the. .. PLAN: ACCELERATING RECOVERY The ECT strategy will integrate with the development of a broader low carbon strategy for Scotland and provide a framework to align public sector support behind the areas of greatest potential economic opportunity Scotland’s Key Sectors The Scottish Government is working across the public sector to support the development of the key sectors identified in the Government Economic. .. downturn in recent memory in the second half of 2009 with many advanced economies returning to growth The Scottish economy has performed broadly in line with the UK throughout the downturn and the latest evidence suggests that the economy was close to emerging from recession in the final quarter of 2009 The recovery in the Scottish and global economies is expected to gain further momentum in 2010, although... with CPI rising to 3.5% These inflationary pressures are expected to fade in the coming months as the excess capacity in the global economy created by the recession is predicted to have a downward effect on price pressures in the second half of 2010 and into 2011 The Scottish economy1 Scotland The Scottish economy has been in recession since the middle of remains in 2008, although the rate of decline has... line with the UK with both economies contracting by around 6% from their previous peaks The latest evidence from the Scottish business surveys suggest that the Scottish economy is close to moving out of recession, with the monthly PMI survey for January 2010 reporting that private sector output in Scotland has grown for the seventh consecutive month Further rise in The rate of decline in Scottish labour... – which unemployment coincided with the slowdown in economic conditions – accelerated towards the end of 2009 following a period of moderation in the middle of the year The Scottish unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 7.6% in Q4 2009 Over the year to Q4 2009 Scottish unemployment levels increased by 65,000 There was a corresponding decline in the Scottish employment rate which fell to... uncertainty of the current economic conditions economy The UK Government’s decision to withdraw its fiscal stimulus package in 2010 risks undermining the fragile early stages of our recovery Above all, the latest unemployment figures demonstrate the compelling case for a continued economic stimulus package in the UK Analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the UK is the only country . GREENER
THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN:
ACCELERATING RECOVERY
CONTENTS
FOREWORD 2
1. INTRODUCTION 4
2. THE ECONOMY 11
The global economy 11
The Scottish. 3342 or
EconomicStrategyDirectorate@scotland.gsi.gov.uk
3 March 2010
The Scottish Government, 2010
THE SCOTTISH ECONOMIC
RECOVERY PLAN:
ACCELERATING RECOVERY
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