Tài liệu China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States pdf

China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States Wayne M Morrison Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance March 4, 2013 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33534 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Summary Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 34 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world’s fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) averaging nearly 10% through 2012 In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic and trade power It is currently the world’s second-largest economy, largest merchandise exporter, second-largest merchandise importer, second-largest destination of foreign direct investment (FDI), largest manufacturer, largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, and largest creditor nation The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China’s economy China’s exports, imports, and FDI inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package, loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending, and providing various incentives to boost domestic consumption Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, while several of the world’s leading economies experienced negative or stagnant economic growth From 2008 to 2011, China’s real GDP growth averaged 9.6%, although it slowed to 7.8% in 2012 Some economic forecasters project that China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy within a few years (although U.S per capita GDP levels are expected to remain much larger than those of China for many years to come) However, the ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China’s transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; and boost productivity and innovation China faces numerous other challenges as well that could impede future economic growth, such as widespread pollution, growing income disparities, an undeveloped social safety net, and extensive involvement of the state in the economy The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered In 2006, the Chinese government formally outlined a goal of building a “harmonious socialist society” by taking steps to lessen income inequality, improve the rule of law, enhance environmental protection, reduce corruption, and improve the country’s social safety net (such as expanding health care and pension coverage to rural areas) In addition, the government has announced plans to rebalance the economy and boost innovation China’s economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress On the one hand, China is a large (and potentially huge) export market for the United States Many U.S firms use China as the final point of assembly in their global supply chain networks China’s large holdings of U.S Treasury securities help the federal government finance its budget deficits However, some analysts contend that China maintains a number of distortive economic policies (such as an undervalued currency and protectionist industrial policies) that undermine U.S economic interests They warn that efforts by the Chinese government to promote innovation, often through the use of subsidies and other distortive measures, could negatively affect many leading U.S industries This report surveys the rise of China’s economy, describes major economic challenges facing China, and discusses the implications of China’s economic rise for the United States Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Contents The History of China’s Economic Development China’s Economy Prior to Reforms The Introduction of Economic Reforms China’s Economic Growth and Reforms: 1979-2012 Causes of China’s Economic Growth Measuring the Size of China’s Economy China as the World’s Largest Manufacturer 10 Changes in China’s Wage Advantage 11 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China 13 China’s Growing FDI Outflows 17 China’s Merchandise Trade Patterns 20 China’s Major Trading Partners 23 Major Chinese Trade Commodities 23 China’s Growing Appetite for Energy 25 China’s Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements 26 Major Long-Term Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy 27 China’s Incomplete Transition to a Market Economy 27 Industrial Policies and SOEs 27 The Banking System 28 An Undervalued Currency 28 Implications of China’s “Unbalanced” Economic Growth Model 29 Overdependence on Exporting and Fixed Investment 29 Growing Pollution 32 Other Challenges 33 Plans Announced by the Chinese Government to Reform and Restructure the Economy 34 The Central Government Five-Year Plans 35 The Drive for “Indigenous Innovation” 36 Challenges to U.S Policy of China’s Economic Rise 37 Figures Figure Average Real GDP Growth Among Major Global Economies: 2008-2011 Figure Comparison of Annual Changes in Total Factor Productivity in China and the United States: 2000-2012 Figure Projections of U.S and Chinese Annual Real GDP Growth Rates: 2013-2030 Figure Chinese and U.S GDP as a Percent of Global Total: 1990-2012 and Projections through 2017 10 Figure Gross Value Added Manufacturing in China, the United States, and Japan: 2004-2011 11 Figure Average Monthly Wages for Selected Countries: 2000-2012 12 Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Figure Industrial Output by Foreign-Invested Firms in China as a Share of National Output Total: 1990-2010 13 Figure Share of China’s Exports and Imports Attributed to Foreign-Invested Enterprises in China: 1990-2012 14 Figure Annual FDI Flows to China: 1985-2012 15 Figure 10 Major Recipients of Global FDI Inflows in 2011 16 Figure 11 Annual U.S FDI Flows to China: 1985-2012 17 Figure 12 China’s Annual FDI Outflows: 2002-2012 19 Figure 13 Major Sources of Global FDI Outflows in 2011 19 Figure 14 China’s Merchandise Trade: 2000-2012 21 Figure 15 Annual Change in China’s Merchandise Exports and Imports: 1990-2012 Estimates 22 Figure 16 China’s Global Share of Merchandise Exports: 1990-2012 22 Figure 17 China’s Net Oil Imports: 1997-2012 26 Figure 18 Chinese Gross Savings, Gross Fixed Investment, and Private Consumption as a Percent of GDP: 1990-2012 30 Figure 19 Chinese Disposable Personal Income as a Percent of GDP: 2000-2012 31 Figure 20 Sources of Chinese GDP Growth: 2006-2012 31 Figure 21 Current Account Balances as a Percent of GDP for China and the United States: 2000-2012 38 Tables Table China’s Annual Real GDP Growth: 1979-2012 Table Comparisons of Chinese, Japanese, and U.S GDP and Per Capita GDP in Nominal U.S Dollars and a Purchasing Power Parity Basis: 2012 10 Table Major Sources of FDI in China: 1979-2012 16 Table China’s Merchandise World Trade: 1979-2012 20 Table China’s Major Trading Partners in 2012 23 Table Major Chinese Exports: 2012 24 Table Major Chinese Imports: 2012 25 Contacts Author Contact Information 39 Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S T he rapid rise of China as a major economic power within a time span of about three decades is often described by analysts as one of the greatest economic success stories in modern times From 1979 (when economic reforms began) to 2012, China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of nearly 10%.1 It is estimated that to date 500 million people in China have been raised out of extreme poverty China has emerged as a major global economic power It is now the world’s largest manufacturer, merchandise exporter, and holder of foreign exchange reserves China is currently the second largest economy after the United States, and some analysts predict that it could become the largest within the next five years or so On a per capita basis (a common measurement of a nation’s standard of living), however, China is significantly less developed than the United States China’s rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in bilateral commercial ties with the United States According to U.S trade data, total trade between the two countries grew from $5 billion in 1980 to $536 billion in 2012 China is currently the United States’ second-largest trading partner, its third-largest export market, and its largest source of imports Many U.S companies have extensive operations in China in order to sell their products in the booming Chinese market and to take advantage of lower-cost labor for export-oriented manufacturing.2 These operations have helped some U.S firms to remain internationally competitive and have supplied U.S consumers with a variety of low-cost goods China’s large-scale purchases of U.S Treasury securities (which totaled nearly $1.2 trillion at the end of 2012) have enabled the federal government to fund its budget deficits, which help keep U.S interest rates relatively low However, the emergence of China as a major economic superpower has raised concern among many U.S policymakers Some claim that China uses unfair trade practices (such as an undervalued currency and subsidies given to domestic producers) to flood U.S markets with lowcost goods, and that such practices threaten American jobs, wages, and living standards Others contend that China’s growing use of industrial policies to promote and protect certain domestic Chinese industries firms favored by the government, and its failure to take effective action against widespread infringement of U.S intellectual property rights (IPR) in China, threaten to undermine the competitiveness of U.S IP-intensive industries In addition, while China has become a large and growing market for U.S exports, critics contend that numerous trade and investment barriers limit opportunities for U.S firms to sell in China, or force them to set up production facilities in China as the price of doing business there Other concerns relating to China’s economic growth include its growing demand for energy and raw materials and its emergence as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses The Chinese government views a growing economy as vital to maintaining social stability However, China faces a number of major economic challenges which could dampen future growth, including distortive economic policies that have resulted in over-reliance on fixed investment and exports for economic growth (rather than on consumer demand), government support for state-owned firms, a weak banking system, widening income gaps, growing pollution, and the relative lack of the rule of law in China The Chinese government has acknowledged these problems and has pledged to address them by implementing policies to boost consumer The beginning of China’s economic reform process began in December 1978 when the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party adopted Deng Xiaoping’s economic proposals Implementation of the reforms began in 1979 Some companies use China as part of their global supply chain for manufactured parts, which are then exported and assembled elsewhere Other firms have shifted the production of finished products from other countries (mainly in Asia) to China; they import parts and materials into China for final assembly Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S spending, expand social safety net coverage, and encourage the development of less-polluting industries This report provides background on China’s economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to keep its economy growing strong; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China’s economic rise for the United States The History of China’s Economic Development China’s Economy Prior to Reforms Prior to 1979, China, under the leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong, maintained a centrallyplanned, or command, economy A large share of the country’s economic output was directed and controlled by the state, which set production goals, controlled prices, and allocated resources throughout most of the economy During the 1950s, all of China’s individual household farms were collectivized into large communes To support rapid industrialization, the central government undertook large-scale investments in physical and human capital during the 1960s and 1970s As a result, by 1978 nearly three-fourths of industrial production was produced by centrally-controlled, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), according to centrally-planned output targets Private enterprises and foreign-invested firms were generally barred A central goal of the Chinese government was to make China’s economy relatively self-sufficient Foreign trade was generally limited to obtaining only those goods that could not be made or obtained in China Government policies kept the Chinese economy relatively stagnant and inefficient, mainly because most aspects of the economy were managed and run by the central government (and thus there were few profit incentives for firms, workers, and farmers), competition was virtually nonexistent, foreign trade and investment flows were mainly limited to Soviet bloc countries, and price and production controls caused widespread distortions in the economy Chinese living standards were substantially lower than those of many other developing countries The Chinese government in 1978 (shortly after the death of Chairman Mao in 1976) decided to break with its Soviet-style economic policies by gradually reforming the economy according to free market principles and opening up trade and investment with the West, in the hope that this would significantly increase economic growth and raise living standards As Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic reforms, put it: “Black cat, white cat, what does it matter what color the cat is as long as it catches mice?”3 The Introduction of Economic Reforms Beginning in 1979, China launched several economic reforms The central government initiated price and ownership incentives for farmers, which enabled them to sell a portion of their crops on the free market In addition, the government established four special economic zones along the coast for the purpose of attracting foreign investment, boosting exports, and importing high technology products into China Additional reforms, which followed in stages, sought to decentralize economic policymaking in several sectors, especially trade Economic control of This reference appears to have meant that it did not matter whether an economic policy was considered to be capitalist or socialist, what really mattered was whether that policy boosted the economy Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S various enterprises was given to provincial and local governments, which were generally allowed to operate and compete on free market principles, rather than under the direction and guidance of state planning In addition, citizens were encouraged to start their own businesses Additional coastal regions and cities were designated as open cities and development zones, which allowed them to experiment with free market reforms and to offer tax and trade incentives to attract foreign investment In addition, state price controls on a wide range of products were gradually eliminated Trade liberalization was also a major key to China’s economic success Removing trade barriers encouraged greater competition and attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows China’s gradual implementation of economic reforms sought to identify which policies produced favorable economic outcomes (and which did not) so that they could be implemented in other parts of the country, a process Deng Xiaoping reportedly referred to as “crossing the river by touching the stones.”4 China’s Economic Growth and Reforms: 1979-2012 Since the introduction of economic reforms, China’s economy has grown substantially faster than during the pre-reform period (see Table 1) According to the Chinese government, from 1953 to 1978, real annual GDP growth was estimated at 6.7%,5 although many analysts claim that Chinese economic data during this period are highly questionable because government officials often exaggerated production levels for a variety of political reasons.6 Economist Agnus Maddison estimated China’s average annual real GDP during this period at 4.4%.7 China’s economy suffered economic downturns during the leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong, including during the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1960 (which led to a massive famine and reportedly the deaths of tens of millions of people) and the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976 (which caused political chaos and greatly disrupted the economy) During the reform period (1979-2011), China’s average annual real GDP grew by 9.9% This essentially has meant that, on average, China has been able to double the size of its economy in real terms every eight years The global economic slowdown, which began in 2008, impacted the Chinese economy (especially the export sector) China’s real GDP growth fell from 14.2% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2008 to 9.2% in 2009 In response, the Chinese government implemented a large economic stimulus package and an expansive monetary policy These measures boosted domestic investment and consumption and helped prevent a sharp economic slowdown in China In 2010, China’s real GDP grew by 10.4%, and in 2011 it rose by 9.2% As indicated in Figure 1, China has been able to maintain healthy economic growth rates, especially compared those of other major economies In 2012, China’s real GDP growth slowed to 7.8% The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that China’s real GDP growth will average 8.5% from 2013 to 2017 Many analysts contend that Deng’s push to implement economic reforms was largely motivated by a belief that the resulting economic growth would ensure that the Communist Party stayed in power Chinability, GDP Growth in China, 1952-2011, at http://www.chinability.com/GDP.htm During the Great Leap Forward, local Chinese officials are believed to have often exaggerated agricultural production to prove their ability to implement Mao’s economic policies in order to advance their careers or to avoid getting into political trouble with Beijing Central government officials may have also exaggerated China’s economic statistics in order to illustrate the “success” of the government’s economic policies The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960-2030, by Angus Maddison, 2007 Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Table China’s Annual Real GDP Growth: 1979-2012 Year Real Growth Rate (%) 1979 7.6 1980 7.9 1981 5.3 1982 9.0 1983 10.9 1984 15.2 1985 13.5 1986 8.9 1987 11.6 1988 11.3 1989 4.1 1990 3.8 1991 9.2 1992 14.2 1993 13.9 1994 13.1 1995 10.9 1996 10.0 1997 9.3 1998 7.8 1999 7.6 2000 8.4 2001 8.3 2002 9.1 2003 10.0 2004 10.1 2005 11.3 2006 12.7 2007 14.2 2008 9.6 2009 9.2 2010 10.4 2011 9.2 2012 7.8 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit and IMF Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Figure Average Real GDP Growth Among Major Global Economies: 2008-2011 (percent) 12.0 10.0 8.0 China India 6.0 Brazil 4.0 2.0 Russia Germany U.S 0.0 France UK -2.0 Japan Italy Source: Economist Intelligence Unit database Causes of China’s Economic Growth Economists generally attribute much of China’s rapid economic growth to two main factors: large-scale capital investment (financed by large domestic savings and foreign investment) and rapid productivity growth These two factors appear to have gone together hand in hand Economic reforms led to higher efficiency in the economy, which boosted output and increased resources for additional investment in the economy China has historically maintained a high rate of savings When reforms were initiated in 1979, domestic savings as a percentage of GDP stood at 32% However, most Chinese savings during this period were generated by the profits of SOEs, which were used by the central government for domestic investment Economic reforms, which included the decentralization of economic production, led to substantial growth in Chinese household savings as well as corporate savings As a result, China’s gross savings as a percentage of GDP has steadily risen, reaching 53.0% in 2008 (compared to a U.S rate of 9.0%), and is among the highest savings rates in the world.8 The large level of savings has enabled China to boost domestic investment In fact, its gross domestic savings levels far exceed its domestic investment levels, meaning that China is a large net global lender China’s savings rate peaked in 2008, but has fallen in recent years It was 49.3% in 2012, while the U.S rate was 10.0% Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Database Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Several economists have concluded that productivity gains (i.e., increases in efficiency) have been another major factor in China’s rapid economic growth The improvements to productivity were caused largely by a reallocation of resources to more productive uses, especially in sectors that were formerly heavily controlled by the central government, such as agriculture, trade, and services For example, agricultural reforms boosted production, freeing workers to pursue employment in the more productive manufacturing sector China’s decentralization of the economy led to the rise of non-state enterprises (such as private firms), which tended to pursue more productive activities than the centrally-controlled SOEs and were more market-oriented, and more efficient Additionally, a greater share of the economy (mainly the export sector) was exposed to competitive forces Local and provincial governments were allowed to establish and operate various enterprises on market principles, without interference from the central government In addition, FDI in China brought with it new technology and processes that boosted efficiency As indicated in Figure 2, China has achieved high rates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth relative to the United States TFP represents an estimate of the part of economic output growth not accounted for by the growth in inputs (such as labor and capital), and is often attributed to the effects of technological change and efficiency gains China experiences faster TFP growth than most developed countries such as the United States because of its ability to access and use existing foreign technology and know-how High TFP growth rates have been a major factor behind China’s rapid economic growth rate However, as China’s technological development begins to approach that of major developed countries, its level of productivity gains, and thus, real GDP growth, could slow significantly from its historic 10% average, unless China becomes a major center for new technology and innovation and/or implements new comprehensive economic reforms.9 As indicated in Figure 3, the Economist Intelligence Unit, (EIU) currently projects that China’s real GDP growth will slow considerably in the years ahead, averaging 7.0% from 2013 to 2020, and to 3.7% from 2021 to 2030.10 The Chinese government has indicated its desire to move away from its current economic model of fast growth at any cost to more “smart” economic growth, which seeks to reduce reliance on energy-intensive and high-polluting industries and rely more on high technology, green energy, and services China also has indicated it wants to obtain more balanced economic growth (These issues are discussed in more detail later in the report.) Like China, Japan experienced rapid economic growth during the early stages of its development in the post-WWII era, with real GDP averaging 11.0% from 1960-1970 However, from 1970-1980 real GDP averaged 5.4%; it was 4.1% from 1980-1990, 1.1% from 1990-2000 Japan has continued to experience relatively stagnant economic growth, in part because of its inability to address a number of structural economic problems See CRS Report RL30176, Japan’s “Economic Miracle”: What Happened?, by William H Cooper 10 Note, long-term economic projections should be viewed with caution Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Table Major Chinese Imports: 2012 ($ billions) HS Code Description $ billions World 1,817.3 Percent of Total 2012/2011 % change 100 4.4 85 Electrical machinery 381.6 21.0 8.7 27 Mineral fuel, oil etc 311.6 17.2 14.0 84 Machinery 181.9 10.0 -8.8 26 Ores, slag, and ash 133.6 7.5 -11.3 90 Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; parts and accessories thereof 106.4 5.9 7.4 87 Vehicles, not railway (mainly autos and parts) 70.6 3.9 8.1 39 Plastic 69.5 3.8 -1.0 98 Special Classification 68.7 3.8 38.9 29 Organic chemicals 60.9 3.4 -36.1 74 Copper and articles thereof 54.6 3.0 0.6 Source: World Trade Atlas, using official Chinese statistics Notes: Top 10 imports in 2012, two-digit level, harmonized tariff schedule China’s Growing Appetite for Energy China’s rapid economic growth has fueled a growing demand for energy, such as petroleum and coal, and that demand is becoming an increasingly important factor in determining global energy prices According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China overtook the United States in 2009 as the world’s largest energy user (in comparison, China’s energy use was only half that of that of the United States in 2000) According to the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA), China’s oil consumption growth accounted for half of the world’s oil consumption growth in 2011.42 According to IEA projections, China’s demand for energy from 2008 (the baseline year) to 2035 will account for 30% of the projected increase in global demand for energy during this period By 2035, China is projected to consume 70% more energy than the United States (even though, on a per capita basis, China’s energy consumption will be less than half of U.S levels).43 China is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil products (after the United States) at 9.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2011 (compared to 3.9 million in 1997), and that level is projected to rise to 16.9 million bpd by 2035.44 China became a net oil importer (i.e., imports minus exports) in 1993 Net oil imports grew from 632,000 bpd in 1997 to about 5.7 million bpd in 2012 (see Figure 17), making it the world’s second-largest net oil importer after the United 42 EIA, Country Analysis Brief, China, September 2012, at http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH International Energy Agency, 2012 World Energy Outlook, November 2012, available at http://www.iea.org/ 44 U.S Energy Information Administration, Forecasts and Analysis, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html 43 Congressional Research Service 25 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S States.45 China is projected to become the largest net oil importer by 2020 (due in part to projected increases to U.S domestic oil production) By 2035, China’s net oil imports per day are projected to exceed 13 million bpd.46 Figure 17 China’s Net Oil Imports: 1997-2012 (Millions BPD) 6.0 5.7 5.1 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 3.7 3.4 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.9 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.0 Source: U.S Energy Administration, China Energy Newswire, and China Daily China’s Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements The Chinese government has maintained an active policy of boosting trade and investment ties around the world, especially with countries in Asia To that end, China has entered into a number of regional and bilateral trade agreements, or is in the process of doing so China currently has free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile, Hong Kong, Macau, New Zealand, Singapore, Pakistan, Peru, and Costa Rica China also has an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with Taiwan China is currently in the process of negotiating FTAs with the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain), Australia, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the Southern African Customs Union (which includes South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) In May 2012, China, Japan, and South Korea agreed to begin negotiations for an FTA in 2012 China has also considered negotiating an FTA with India, but with little progress to 45 46 China overtook Japan as the second largest net oil importer in 2009 EIA, International Energy Outlook, September 19, 2011, available at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Congressional Research Service 26 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S date.47 In December 2012, China joined with the 10 members of ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand in agreement to begin negotiations toward a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which, if concluded, could constitute the world’s largest free trade bloc.48 Major Long-Term Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy China’s economy has shown remarkable growth over the past several years, and many economists project that it will enjoy fairly healthy growth in the near future However, economists caution that these projections are likely to occur only if China continues to make major reforms to its economy Failure to implement such reforms could endanger future growth They note that China’s current economic model has resulted in a number of negative economic (and social) outcomes, such as over-reliance on fixed investment and exporting for its economic growth, extensive inefficiencies that exist in many sectors (due largely to government industrial policies), wide-spread pollution, and growing income inequality, to name a few Many of China’s economic problems and challenges stem from its incomplete transition to a free market economy and from imbalances that have resulted from the government’s goal of economic growth at all costs China’s Incomplete Transition to a Market Economy Despite China’s three-decade history of widespread economic reforms, Chinese officials contend that China is a “socialist-market economy.” This appears to indicate that the government accepts and allows the use of free market forces in a number of areas to help grow the economy, but where the government still plays a major role in the country’s economic development Industrial Policies and SOEs According to the World Bank, “China has become one of the world’s most active users of industrial policies and administrations.”49 According to one estimate, China’s SOEs may account for up of 50% of non-agriculture GDP.50 In addition, although the number of SOEs has declined sharply, they continue to dominate a number of sectors (such as petroleum and mining, telecommunications, utilities, transportation, and various industrial sectors); are shielded from competition; are the main sectors encouraged to invest overseas; and dominate the listings on China’s stock indexes.51 One study found that SOEs constituted 50% of the 500 largest 47 Chinese Ministry of Commerce, China FTA Network, available at http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/english/ fta_qianshu.shtml 48 The RCEP would include more than billion people, have a combined GDP of $17 trillion 49 The World Bank, China:2030, p 114 50 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, An Analysis of State-owned Enterprises and State Capitalism in China, by Andrew Szamosszegi and Cole Kyle, October 26, 2011, p.1 51 The nature of China’s SOEs has become increasing complex Many SOEs appear to be run like private companies For example, and a number of SOEs have made initial public offerings in China’s stock markets and those in other countries (including the United States), although the Chinese government is usually the largest shareholder It is not clear to what extent the Chinese government attempts to influence decisions made by the SOE’s which have become shareholding companies Congressional Research Service 27 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S manufacturing companies in China and 61% of the top 500 service sector enterprises.52 It is estimated that there were 154,000 SOEs as of 2008, and while these accounted for only 3.1% of all enterprises in China, they held 30% of the value of corporate assets in the manufacturing and services sectors.53 Of the 58 Chinese firms on the 2011 Fortune Global 500 list, 54 were identified as having government ownership of 50% or more.54 The World Bank estimates that more than one in four SOEs lose money.55 The Banking System China’s banking system is largely controlled by the central government, which attempts to ensure that capital (credit) flows to industries deemed by the government to be essential to China’s economic development SOEs are believed to receive preferential credit treatment by government banks, while private firms must often pay higher interest rates or obtain credit elsewhere According to one estimate, SOEs accounted for 85% ($1.4 trillion) of all bank loans in 2009.56 In addition, the government sets interest rates for depositors at very low rates, often below the rate of inflation, which keeps the price of capital relatively low for firms.57 It is believed that oftentimes SOEs not repay their loans, which may have saddled the banks with a large amount of non-performing loans In addition, local governments are believed to have borrowed extensively from state banks shortly after the global economic slowdown began to impact the Chinese economy to fund infrastructure and other initiatives Some contend these measures could further add to the amount of non-performing loans held by the banks Many analysts contend that one of the biggest weaknesses of the banking system is that it lacks the ability to ration and allocate credit according to market principles, such as risk assessment An Undervalued Currency China does not allow its currency to float and therefore must make large-scale purchases of dollars to keep the exchange rate within certain target levels Although the renminbi (RMB) has appreciated against the dollar in real terms by about 40% since reforms were introduced in July 2005, some analysts contend that it remains highly undervalued.58 China’s undervalued currency makes its exports less expensive, and its imports more expensive, than would occur under a floating exchange rate system In order to maintain its exchange rate target, the government must purchase foreign currency (such as the dollar) by expanding the money supply This makes it much more difficult for the government to use monetary policy to combat inflation.59 52 Xiao Geng, Xiuke Yang, and Anna Janus, State-owned Enterprises in China, Reform Dynamics and Impacts, 2009, p.155 53 The World Bank, State-Owned Enterprises in China: How Big Are They?, January 19, 2010 54 Global 500, The World’s Largest Corporations,” Fortune, July 25, 2011, available at http://money.cnn.com/ magazines/fortune/global500/2011/index.html 55 World Bank, China 2030, p.25 56 The Economist, State Capitalism’s Global Reach, New Masters of the Universe, How State Enterprise is Spreading, January 21, 2012, available at http://www.economist.com/node/21542925 57 Some economists argue that a significant portion of China’s SOEs could not stay in business if they had to pay a market-based interest rate for credit 58 See CRS Report RS21625, China's Currency Policy: An Analysis of the Economic Issues, by Wayne M Morrison and Marc Labonte 59 If Chinese banks raised interest rates in an effort to control inflation, overseas investors might to try to shift funds to (continued ) Congressional Research Service 28 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Many economists argue that China’s industrial policies have sharply limited competition and the growth of the private sector, caused over-capacity in many industries, and distorted markets by artificially lowering the costs of various factor costs (such as capital, water, land, and energy) below market levels in order to promote targeted industrial sectors Such policies have come at the expense of other (non-industrial) sectors of the economy, such as services Implications of China’s “Unbalanced” Economic Growth Model China’s economic model, until recently, has emphasized rapid economic growth above nearly all other considerations Various data show that, while China’s GDP has risen rapidly over the past 34 years, Chinese households not appear to have shared equally in that growth In addition, China’s economic model has resulted in a number of significant problems that may negatively affect future growth Overdependence on Exporting and Fixed Investment The IMF estimates that fixed investment related to tradable goods plus net exports together accounted for over 60% of China’s GDP growth from 2001 to 2008 (up from 40% from 1990 to 2000), which was significantly higher than in the G-7 countries (16%), the euro area (30%), and the rest of Asia (35%) China’s fixed investment as a percentage of GDP is the highest of any major economy and its importance has been growing As shown in Figure 18, fixed investment as a percent of GDP increased from 25% in 1990 to 45.4% in 2012 On the other hand, during the same period, private consumption as a percent of GDP fell from 48.8% to 36.3% (was 35.4% in 2011).60 China’s private consumption as a share of GDP is the lowest of any major economy.61 In addition, as indicated in Figure 19, personal disposable income in China as a share of GDP has also been falling over the past decade or so, from 48.8% in 2000 to 46.8% in 2012 (up from 45.5% in 2011).62 China’s overall savings rate as a percent of GDP in 2012 was 46.5% (down from 49.2% in 2011), which was the highest rate of any major economy Many economists contend that the falling share of private consumption and disposable income relative to GDP is largely caused by two main factors: China’s banking policies and the lack of an adequate social safety net The Chinese government places restrictions on the export of capital As a result, Chinese households put a large share of their savings in domestic banks The Chinese government sets the interest rate on deposits Often this rate is below the rate of inflation, which lowers household income Some economists consider this policy to constitute a transfer of wealth from Chinese households to Chinese firms which benefit from low interest rates This “tax” on household income negatively affects household consumption Secondly, China’s lack of an ( continued) China (through illegal means) to take advantage of the higher Chinese rates The Chinese government has had difficulty blocking such inflows of “hot money.” Such inflows force the government to boost the money supply to buy up the foreign currency necessary to maintain the targeted peg Expanding the money supply contributes to easy credit policies by the banks, which has contributed to overcapacity in a number of sectors, such as steel, and speculative asset bubbles (such as in real estate) This often forces the government to use administrative controls to limit credit to certain sectors 60 Private consumption in China has been rising rapidly over the past several years, but not as fast as over parts of the economy 61 In comparison, the U.S figure was 71.1% 62 That rate was 43.4% in 1990 Congressional Research Service 29 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S adequate social safety net (such as pensions, health care, unemployment insurance, and education) induces households to save a large portion of their income According to one estimate, the average saving rate of urban households relative to their disposable incomes rose from 18% in 1995 to nearly 29% in 2009.63 Corporations are also a major contributor to the high savings rate in China Many Chinese firms, especially SOEs, not pay out dividends and thus are able to retain most of their earnings Many economists contend that requiring the SOEs to pay dividends could boost private consumption in China Figure 18 Chinese Gross Savings, Gross Fixed Investment, and Private Consumption as a Percent of GDP: 1990-2012 (percent) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.0 Private consumption Gross fixed investment Gross national savings Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 63 VOX, The Puzzle of China’s Rising Household Saving Rate, by Marcos Chamon, Kai Liu, and Eswar Prasad, January 18, 2011, available at http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6028 Congressional Research Service 30 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Figure 19 Chinese Disposable Personal Income as a Percent of GDP: 2000-2012 (percent) 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figure 20 Sources of Chinese GDP Growth: 2006-2012 (percent) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -4.0 -6.0 Stockbuilding Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed investment External balance Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Notes: Real GDP growth for 2006-2012 was as follows: 12.7% in 2006, 14.2% in 2007, 9.6% in 2008, 9.2% in 2009, 10.4% in 2010, 9.2% in 2011, and 7.8% in 2012 Congressional Research Service 31 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Growing Pollution China’s economic growth model has emphasized the growth of heavy industry in China, much of which is energy-intensive and high polluting The level of pollution in China continues to worsen, posing series health risks to the population The Chinese government often disregards its own environmental laws in order to promote rapid economic growth China’s environmental challenges are illustrated by the following incidents and reports: • According to a 2008 World Bank report, 16 out of 20 of the world’s most polluted cities (in terms of air pollution) are in China.64 • According to one Chinese government official estimate in 2006, environmental damage costs the country $226 billion, or 10% of the country’s GDP, each year.65 • The Chinese government estimated that in 2004 there were over 300 million people living in rural areas who drank unsafe water (caused by chemicals and other contaminants) • Toxic spills in 2005 and 2006 threatened the water supply of millions of people • In October 2009, China’s media reported that thousands of children living near smelters had been found to have excessive amounts of lead in their blood • The World Health Organization estimated that air pollution in China caused the death of 470,649 people in 2008.66 • In February 2013, China’s Geological Survey reportedly estimated that 90% of all Chinese cities had polluted groundwater, with two-thirds having “severely polluted” water.67 • The U.S Entergy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2035, China’s carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) could be nearly double its current levels.68 A study by ExxonMobil projects that, by 2030, China’s CO2 emissions could equal the level in the United States and EU combined.69 • The U.S Embassy in Beijing, which monitors and reports air quality in China based on an air quality index of particle matter (developed by the U.S Environmental Protection Agency) considered to pose a health concern, reported that the air quality in Beijing for a majority of the days in January 2013 ranged from “unhealthy” to “hazardous” (based on 24-hour exposure) and, on a few days, it recorded high readings that were “beyond index.”70 The recent level of poor air quality in Beijing has been termed by some in China as “Airpocalypse, 64 The World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008, table 3.14 China Daily, June 6, 2006 66 World Health Organization chart at http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/phe/oap_mbd/atlas.html 67 The New York Times, Concerns Grow About ‘Severely Polluted’ Water in China’s Cities, February 20, 2013 68 EIA, International Energy Outlook, September 19, 2011, available at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo 69 ExxonMobil, The Outlook for Energy, A View to 2030, December 29, 2009, p 70 Hazardous is the worst category for air quality used by the U.S embassy, based on a numerical value of its index ranging from 301 to 500 On several occasions, the air quality index in Beijing has surpassed 500 On January 12, 2013, it reportedly hit 755 A measurement of below 50 less is considered good 65 Congressional Research Service 32 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S and reportedly forced the government to shut down some factories and reduce the level of official cars on the road.71 The Chinese government has sharply criticized foreign governments for reporting air quality in China, calling their readings inaccurate and complaining that releasing such data violates international conventions and Chinese laws.72 At the same time, China’s media has boosted its reporting of China’s environmental problems in response to public anger, prompting central government officials to promise new steps to reduce emissions However, the central government has often found it difficult to induce local governments to comply with environmental laws, especially when such officials feel doing so will come at the expense of economic growth Other Challenges China’s economy faces a number of social and political challenges as well: • Public unrest For China’s Communist Party leadership, a growing economy is its main source of political legitimacy However, every year numerous protests occur in China over a number of issues, including pollution, government corruption, and land seizures A number of protests in China have stemmed in part from frustrations among many Chinese (especially peasants) that they are not benefitting from China’s economic reforms and rapid growth, and perceptions that those who are getting rich are doing so because they have connections with government officials A 2005 United Nations report stated that the income gap between the urban and rural areas was among the highest in the world and warned that this gap threatens social stability The report urged China to take greater steps to improve conditions for the rural poor, and bolster education, health care, and the social safety net.73 It is estimated that 300 million people in China (mainly in rural areas) lack health insurance, and many that have basic insurance must pay a significant amount of medical expenses out of their own pocket.74 • The relative lack of the rule of law in China has led to widespread government corruption, financial speculation, and misallocation of investment funds In many cases, government “connections,” not market forces, are the main determinant of successful firms in China Many U.S firms find it difficult to business in China because rules and regulations are generally not consistent or transparent, contracts are not easily enforced, and intellectual property rights are not protected (due to the lack of an independent judicial system) The relative lack of the rule of law and widespread government corruption in China limit competition and undermine the efficient allocation of goods and services in the economy A New York Times article reported that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s family controlled assets worth at least $2.7 billion.75 One study estimates that between 2001 and 71 National Public Radio, Beijing’s “Airpocalypse” Spurs Pollution Controls, Public Pressure, January 14, 2013 See Xinhua, Foreign Embassies' Air Data Issuing Inaccurate, Unlawful: Official, June 5, 2012, at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-06/05/c_131633044.htm 73 China’s Human Development Report 2005 74 The Washington Post, October 29, 2009 75 The New York Times, Billions in Hidden Riches for Family of Chinese Leader, October 25, 2012 72 Congressional Research Service 33 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S 2010, China was the world’s largest source of illicit capital outflows at $3.8 trillion.76 A 2012 survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project reported that 50% of respondents said that corrupt officials are a very big problem (up from 39% in 2008).77 Chinese officials often identify government corruption as the greatest threat to the Chinese Communist Party and the state The Chinese government’s anti-corruption watchdog reported that 106,000 officials were found guilty of corruption in 2009.78 However, many analysts contend that government anti-corruption campaigns are mainly used to settle political scores with out of favor officials and argue that meaningful progress against government corruption cannot occur without greater government transparency, a system of checks and balances, a free press, and an independent judiciary.79 • Poor government regulatory environment China maintains a weak and relatively decentralized government structure to regulate economic activity in China Laws and regulations often go unenforced or are ignored by local government officials As a result, many firms cut corners in order to maximize profits This has led to a proliferation of unsafe food and consumer products being sold in China or exported abroad Lack of government enforcement of food safety laws led to a massive recall of melamine-tainted infant milk formula that reportedly killed at least four children and sickened 53,000 others in 2008 Plans Announced by the Chinese Government to Reform and Restructure the Economy Various government officials have publicly stated the need for China to change course from its traditional economic growth model of growth at all cost to one that balances economic growth with a number of social goals in order to develop a “socialist harmonious society,” and to further modernize the economy In March 2007, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that there are “structural problems in China’s economy which cause unsteady, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development.” He defined “unsteady development” as overheated investment, excessive credit and liquidity, and merchandise trade and current account surpluses “Unbalanced development” was described as economic disparities between rural and urban areas, regions of the country, and between economic and social development “Uncoordinated development” was described as the lack of balance between various sectors of the economy (especially in regards to the services sector) and between investment and consumption (i.e., economic growth is mainly driven by investment and exports rather than consumer demand) Lastly, “unsustainable development” referred to problems caused by China’s inefficient use of energy and resources and failure to protect the environment 76 Global Financial Integrity, Chinese Economy Lost $3.79 Trillion in Illicit Financial Outflows Since 2000, Reveals New GFI Report, October 25, 2012 It is not known how much of the illicit financial outflows in China are directly linked to government corruption 77 Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, Growing Concerns in China about Inequality, Corruption, October 16, 2012 78 BBC News, Corruption Up Among China Government Officials, January 8, 2010 79 The New York Times, Chinese Officials Find Misbehavior Now Carries Cost, December 25, 2012 Congressional Research Service 34 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S The Central Government Five-Year Plans China’s last two five-year plans (FYP), the 11th FYP (2006-2010) and the 12th FYP (2011-2015), have placed strong emphasis on promoting consumer demand, addressing income disparities (such as by boosting spending on social safety net programs), boosting energy efficiency, reducing pollution, improving the rule of law, and deepening economic reforms Those plans have also identified a number of industries and technologies that the government has targeted for development (see text box) Congressional Research Service 35 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S China’s 12th Five-Year Plan80 China’s Five-Year Plans (FYPs) have been issued by the government since 1953 The FYP is the major vehicle for the government to establish broad economic and social goals for the time period under consideration, to coordinate investments between the central and local governments, and to oversee implementation of policy Not only does the plan influence investments by government entities, it also provides direction for bank lending and government approvals and regulation of private and semi-private industries In March 2011, China’s National People’s Congress approved the 12th Five-Year Plan (covering the years 2011 to 2015) The 12th FYP (2011-2015) contains three broad themes or areas of focus: (1) economic restructuring, (2) promoting greater social equality, and (3) protecting the environment Chinese industrial policy comes into play primarily in economic restructuring but also is apparent in the other areas of focus Particularly noteworthy is the targeting of seven strategic emerging industries that are intended to become the backbone of China’s economy in the future and to be able to compete well on a global scale These seven industries are (1) biotechnology; (2) new energy; (3) highend equipment manufacturing; (4) energy conservation and environmental protection; (5) clean-energy vehicles; (6) new materials; and (7) next-generation information technology The government reportedly intends to spend up to $2.1 trillion on these industries during the 12th FYP Some of the highlights of the FYP include: • achieving an average real GDP growth rate of 7% and ensuring that incomes rise at least as fast as GDP; • consolidating inefficient sectors and promoting the services industry (with the goal of expanding service sector output to account for 47% of GDP—up four percentage points from the current level); • promoting energy saving and new energy industries; promoting the development of nuclear, water, wind, and solar power; and expanding non-fossil fuel to account for 11.4% of primary energy consumption; • welcoming foreign investment in modern agriculture, high-technology, and environmental protection industries; • turning coastal regions from “world’s factory” to hubs of research and development, high-end manufacturing, and services; • lengthening high-speed railway and highway networks; • increasing expenditure on R&D to account for 2.2% of GDP; • expanding non-fossil fuel to account for 11.4% of primary energy consumption; • cutting water consumption per unit of value-added industrial output by 30%, energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16%, and carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP by 17%; • increasing the minimum wage by no less than 13% on average each year; and • building 36 million affordable apartments for low-income people Sources: Xinhua News Agency, Highlights of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan, March 5, 2011; and APCO Worldwide, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan: How it Actually Works and What’s in Store For the Next Five Years, December 10, 2010 The Drive for “Indigenous Innovation” Many of the industrial policies that China has implemented or formulated since 2006 appear to stem largely from a comprehensive document issued by China’s State Council (the highest executive organ of state power) in 1996 titled The National Medium-and Long-Term Program for Science and Technology Development (2006-2020), often referred to as the MLP The MLP appears to represent an ambitious plan to modernize the structure of China’s economy by transforming it from a global center of low-tech manufacturing to a major center of innovation (by the year 2020) and a global innovation leader by 2050 As some observers describe it, China wants to go from a model of “made in China” to “innovated in China.” It also seeks to sharply reduce the country’s dependence on foreign technology The MLP includes the stated goals of 80 “Highlights of China's Draft 12th Five-Year Plan,” Xinhua, March 5, 2011 Congressional Research Service 36 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S “indigenous innovation, leapfrogging in priority fields, enabling development, and leading the future.”81 Some of the broad goals of the MLP state that by 2020: • The progress of science and technology will contribute 60% or above to China’s development • The country’s reliance on foreign technology will decline to 30% or below (from an estimated current level of 50%) • Gross expenditures for research and development (R&D) would rise to 2.5% of gross domestic product (from 1.3% in 2005) Priority areas for increased R&D include space programs, aerospace development and manufacturing, renewable energy, computer science, and life sciences.82 The document states that “China must place the strengthening of indigenous innovative capability at the core of economic restructuring, growth model change, and national competitiveness enhancement Building an innovation-oriented country is therefore a major strategic choice for China’s future development.” This goal, according to the document, is to be achieved by formulating and implementing regulations in the country’s government procurement law to “encourage and protect indigenous innovation,” establishing a coordination mechanism for government procurement of indigenous innovative products, requiring a first-buy policy for major domestically made high-tech equipment and products that possess proprietary intellectual property rights, providing policy support to enterprises in procuring domestic high-tech equipment, and developing “relevant technology standards” through government procurement Challenges to U.S Policy of China’s Economic Rise China’s rapid economic growth and emergence as a major economic power have given China’s leadership increased confidence in its economic model Many believe the key challenges for the United States are to convince China that (1) it has a stake in maintaining the international trading system, which is largely responsible for its economic rise, and to take a more active leadership role in maintaining that system; and (2) that further economic and trade reforms are the surest way for China to grow and modernize its economy For example, by boosting domestic spending and allowing its currency to appreciate, China would import more, which would help speed economic recovery in other countries, promote more stable and balanced economic growth in China, and lessen trade protectionist pressures around the world Lowering trade barriers on imports would boost competition in China, lower costs for consumers, and increase economic efficiency However, many U.S stakeholders are concerned that China’s efforts to boost the development of indigenous innovation and technology could result in greater intervention by the state (such as subsidies, trade and investment barriers, and discriminatory policies), which could negatively affect U.S IP-intensive firms Failure by China to take meaningful steps to rebalance its economy could increase tensions with its trading partners, especially if China’s share of global exports continues to increase rapidly, and if that increase is viewed as being the result of non81 The MLP identifies main areas and priority topics, including energy, water and mineral resources, the environment, agriculture, manufacturing, communications and transport, information industry and modern service industries, population and health, urbanization and urban development, public security, and national defense The report also identifies 16 major special projects and “pioneer technologies.” 82 R&D Magazine, December 22, 2009 Congressional Research Service 37 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S market policies that give Chinese exports an unfair competitive advantage.83 Some economists contend that some economic rebalancing by China appears to have taken place in recent years, noting that China’s current account surplus as a percent of GDP declined from a historical high of 10.1% in 2007 to 2.3% in 2012 (see Figure 21) In addition, as noted in Figure 20, in 2012, private consumption was the largest contributor to China’s GDP, overtaking fixed investment for the first time in many years However many economists contend that much of the reduction in China’s current account surplus may be a reflection of sluggish global for Chinese products, rather than a change in Chinese economic policies Figure 21 Current Account Balances as a Percent of GDP for China and the United States: 2000-2012 (percent) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 8.6 10.1 9.1 5.9 1.7 -4.2 1.3 -3.9 2.4 2.8 5.2 3.6 -2.7 -4.3 -4.7 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.1 4.0 -3.0 2.8 -3.1 2.3 -3.1 -4.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 China United States Source: International Monetary Fund Opinions differ as to the most effective way of dealing with China on major economic issues Some support a policy of engagement with China using various forums, such as the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), which holds discussions on major long-term economic issues at the highest government level Others support a somewhat mixed policy of using engagement when possible, coupled with a more aggressive use of the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement procedures to address China’s unfair trade policies Still others, who see China as a growing threat to the U.S economy and the global trading system, advocate a policy of trying to contain China’s economic power and using punitive measures when needed to force China to “play by the rules.” Recent media reports of extensive cyber espionage by Chinese entities (including the Chinese military) against U.S firms has also raised concern in the United States over how to respond what many see as a serious threat to U.S economic interests.84 83 Sharp increases in Chinese exports of higher-end manufacturing could also raise trade tensions between China and its major trading partners This has already occurred in some areas, such as wind turbines and solar panels 84 For example, see Mandiant, APT1, Exposing One of China’s Cyber Espionage Units, February 19, 2013 The report documents cyber espionage by a Chinese entity (believed to be linked to the Chinese People’s Liberation) against more (continued ) Congressional Research Service 38 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S China’s growing economic power has made it a critical and influential player on the global stage on a number of issues important to U.S interests, such as global economic cooperation, climate change, nuclear proliferation, and North Korean aggression.85 China is in a position to help advance U.S interests or to frustrate them China’s rising economy has also enabled it to boost its military capabilities, raising the prospects that China could use that power to project its interests globally, which could bring it into conflict with the United States and its allies U.S policymakers face a number of complex challenges on how to deal with these issues Can the United States compel better behavior from China via quiet diplomacy or public confrontation? Has U.S leverage over Beijing lessened in the wake of China’s economic rise, and has China’s leverage over Washington increased? How will China’s upcoming leadership changes affect its economic policies? Will its new leaders promote greater economic reforms and trade liberalization or will they support greater control over the economy and enhanced support of SOEs?86 Author Contact Information Wayne M Morrison Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance wmorrison@crs.loc.gov, 7-7767 ( continued) than 141 companies in 20 industries 85 For additional information on these issues, see CRS Report R41108, U.S.-China Relations: Policy Issues, by Susan V Lawrence and David MacDonald 86 For a discussion of China’s new leaders, see CRS Report R42786, A Guide to China’s Upcoming Leadership Transitions, by Susan V Lawrence Congressional Research Service 39 ... become the world’s second largest economy (after the United States) Congressional Research Service China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S are in the United. .. it does for the United States and Japan In 2011, China’s gross valued added Congressional Research Service 10 China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S... China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the U.S Contents The History of China’s Economic Development China’s Economy Prior to Reforms The Introduction