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European
Economic
Forecast
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 7|2012
Economic and
Financial Aff airs
Autumn 2012
The European Economy series contains important reports and communications from
the Commission to the Council and the Parliament on the economic situation and
developments, such as the European economic forecasts and the Public finances in
EMU report.
Unless otherwise indicated the texts are published under the responsibility of the
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission to
which enquiries other than those related to sales and subscriptions should be
addressed.
Legal notice
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf
may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the
information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite
careful preparation and checking, may appear.
More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu).
ISBN 978-92-79-22855-1
doi: 10.2765/19623
© European Union, 2012
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
European Economic Forecast
Autumn 2012
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 8/2012
ABBREVIATIONS
ii
Countries and regions
EU European Union
EA euro area
BE Belgium
BG Bulgaria
CZ Czech Republic
DK Denmark
DE Germany
EE Estonia
EL Greece
ES Spain
FR France
IE Ireland
IT Italy
CY Cyprus
LV Latvia
LT Lithuania
LU Luxemburg
HU Hungary
MT Malta
NL The Netherlands
AT Austria
PL Poland
PT Portugal
RO Romania
SI Slovenia
SK Slovakia
FI Finland
SE Sweden
UK United Kingdom
HR Croatia
JP Japan
US United States of America
BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
CEE Central and Eastern Europe
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
EFTA European Free Trade Association
MENA Middle East and North Africa
ROW Rest of the World
Economic variables and institutions
BCS Business and Consumer Surveys
CDS Credit Default Swaps
EDP Excessive Deficit Procedure
ESI Economic Sentiment Indicator
Euribor European Interbank Offered Rate
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNI Gross National Income
HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
Libor London Interbank Offered Rate
iii
MTO Medium-Term Objective
NAWRU Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment
OIS Overnight Index Swaps
PMI Purchasing Managers' Index
REER Real Effective Exchange Rate
RWA Risk-Weighted Assets
SGP Stability and Growth Pact
VAT Value-Added Tax
CBR Central Bank of Russia
CPB Centraal Planbureau, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
EBA European Banking Authority
ECB European Central Bank
EFSF European Financial Stabilisation Facility
ESM European Stability Mechanism
Fed Federal Reserve, US
IMF International Monetary Fund
NBR National Bank of Romania
NFI Non-financial institutions
OBR Office for Budget Responsibility, UK
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
PBoC People's Bank of China
S&P Standard and Poor's
WTO World Trade Organisation
Other abbreviations
BCA Budget Control Act, US
BLS Bank Lending Survey
COLA Cost-of-living allowance / Cost-of-living adjustment
CP Convergence Programme
DSGE Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium [model]
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FLS Funding for Lending Scheme, UK
FX Foreign Exchange
FY Financial year
JPA Job Protection Act, Hungary
LFS Labour Force Survey
LTRO Longer-Term Refinancing Operation
MBS Mortgage-Backed Securities
MRO Main Refinancing Operations
OMT Outright Monetary Transactions
PAYG Pay As You Go [pension scheme]
PPP Public-Private Partnership
QE Quantitative Easing
QUEST Quarterly Estimation and Simulation Tool, DG ECFIN's DSGE model
SOEs State-Owned Enterprises
VERP Voluntary Early Retirement Pension, Denmark
Graphs/Tables/Units
a.a. Annual average
bbl Barrel
iv
bn Billion
bps Basis points
lhs Left hand scale
rhs Right hand scale
pp. / pps. Percentage point / points
pts Points
Q Quarter
q-o-q% Quarter-on-quarter percentage change
y-o-y% Year-on-year percentage change
SAAR Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate
Currencies
EUR Euro
ECU European currency unit
EMU Economic and Monetary Union
BGN Bulgarian lev
CNY Chinese yuan, renminbi
CZK Czech koruna
DKK Danish krone
GBP Pound sterling
HUF Hungarian forint
HRK Croatian kuna
ISK Icelandic krona
LTL Lithuanian litas
LVL Latvian lats
MKD Macedonian denar
NOK Norwegian krone
PLN Polish zloty
RON New Romanian leu
RSD Serbian dinar
SEK Swedish krona
CHF Swiss franc
JPY Japanese yen
TRY Turkish lira
USD US dollar
CONTENTS
v
Overview 1
PART I: Economic developments at the aggregated level 7
The EU economy: Sailing through rough waters 9
1. A mild recovery ahead amid continued structural adjustment 10
2. The external environment 11
3. Financial markets in Europe 14
4. The EU economy 16
5. Risks 28
PART II: Prospects by individual economy 47
Member States 49
1. Belgium: Fiscal consolidation amid a subdued growth outlook 50
2. Bulgaria: Domestic demand sustaining growth 52
3. The Czech Republic: Low consumption weighs on the economy 54
4. Denmark: Muted growth in a phase of adjustment 56
5. Germany: Robust consumption despite uncertain environment 58
6. Estonia: Returning to balanced growth 61
7. Ireland: The road to recovery is still challenging 63
8. Greece: Fiscal consolidation in the midst of internal adjustment 65
9. Spain: Deep adjustment continues 67
10. France: One more year of flat growth before recovery 70
11. Italy: Uncertainty and tight financing conditions delay recovery 73
12. Cyprus: Deep recession to prevail over the forecast horizon 76
13. Latvia: Growing fast again 78
14. Lithuania: Growth continues at a slower pace 80
15. Luxembourg: Approaching a crossroad 82
16. Hungary: Fiscal challenges amidst subdued growth prospects 84
17. Malta: Resilient labour market underpins gradual demand
recovery 87
18. The Netherlands: Slowly emerging from the doldrums 89
19. Austria: A gradual return to normality 92
20. Poland: Growth slows down as domestic demand falters 94
21. Portugal: Faster-than-expected rebalancing towards net exports 97
22. Romania: Modest recovery ahead 99
23. Slovenia: Deleveraging needs delay recovery 101
24. Slovakia: Economy still resilient but losing pace in 2013 103
25. Finland: Growth losing pace, but labour market remaining strong 105
26. Sweden: Slowdown but no recession 107
27. The United Kingdom: Subdued growth amid continuing
uncertainty 109
Acceding Countries 113
28. Croatia: Little growth but some fiscal consolidation 114
vi
Candidate Countries 117
29. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: From a moderate
recession to an investment driven recovery 118
30. Iceland: Recovery on track amid risks and uncertainties 120
31. Montenegro: Seeking the restoration of the lending channel 122
32. Serbia: Recession followed by a sluggish recovery 124
33. Turkey: Growth slows down and rebalances away from
consumption 126
Other non-EU Countries 129
34. The United States of America: Subdued growth amid looming
fiscal uncertainties 130
35. Japan: Recovery stalling after the solid first half of 2012 133
36. China: Mixed signals for the short term, while structural
challenges remain 135
37. EFTA: Resilience put to the test 137
38. Russian Federation: Continuing on a moderate growth path 140
Statistical Annex 145
LIST OF TABLES
1. Overview - the autumn 2012 forecast 1
I.1. International environment 12
I.2. Main features of the autumn 2012 forecast - EU 17
I.3. Main features of the autumn 2012 forecast - euro area 18
I.4. Composition of growth - EU 20
I.5. Composition of growth - euro area 21
I.6. Labour market outlook - euro area and EU 23
I.7. General government budgetary position - euro area and EU 27
I.8. Euro-area debt dynamics 28
LIST OF GRAPHS
I.1. Real GDP, EU 9
I.2. HICP, EU 9
I.3. Current-account imbalances, euro area 10
I.4. Multi-speed real GDP growth in the EU, annual growth rates
(weighted) 11
I.5. World trade and Global PMI manufacturing output 12
I.6. Commodity-price developments 13
I.7. Real GDP growth in EU, non-EU advanced and emerging
economies 13
I.8. Ten-year government-bond yields, selected euro-area
Member States 14
I.9. Stock-market indices, euro area 15
I.10. Bank lending to households and non-financial corporations,
euro area 15
I.11. Net changes in credit standards and credit demand for
loans to non-financial corporations, euro area 16
vii
I.12. GDP growth and its components, EU 16
I.13. Economic Sentiment Indicator and PMI Composite Output
Index, EU 17
I.14. Real GDP growth , EU, contributions by Member States 18
I.15. Equipment investment and capacity utilisation, euro area 19
I.16. Construction investment and building permits, euro area 19
I.17. Private consumption and consumer confidence, euro area 20
I.18. Global demand, euro-area exports and new export orders 21
I.19. Current-account balances, euro area and Member States 22
I.20. Employment growth and unemploment rate, EU 23
I.21. Employment expectations, DG ECFIN surveys, euro area 24
I.22. HICP, euro area 25
I.23. Inflation breakdown, EU 26
I.24. Producer Price Inflation and survey inflation expectations, EU 26
I.25. Budgetary developments, euro area 27
I.26. General government revenues and expenditure, EU 28
I.27. Euro area GDP forecasts - Uncertainty linked to the balance
of risks 29
LIST OF BOXES
I.1. Ongoing adjustment in the euro-area periphery 30
I.2. Assessing the impact of diverging financing conditions within
the euro area 34
I.3. The role of expectations and confidence indicators in short-
term forecasting 37
I.4. Euro-area labour markets: less resilience and more
divergence ahead? 39
I.5. Forecast errors and multiplier uncertainty 41
I.6. Some technical elements behind the forecast 45
[...]... half of 2012 and lost further momentum in recent months on the back of weakening economic activity, notably in the euro area and Japan Non-EU trade is expected 11 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 Table I.1: International environment (Annual percentage change) Autumn 2012 forecast 2012 2013 2014 Spring 2012 forecast 2012 2013 (a) 2009 2010 2011 19.2 -3.1 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.1 5.7 -5.5 4.5... the end of this year … with equipment investment expected to recover over the forecast horizon … The decrease in equipment investment that set in Table I.3: Main features of the autumn 2012 forecast - euro area (Real annual percentage change unless otherwise stated) Autumn 2012 forecast 2012 2013 2014 Spring 2012 forecast 2012 2013 2009 GDP Private consumption Public consumption Total investment Employment... growth is forecast for 2014 Slowly improving labour market conditions, rising purchasing power and higher consumer confidence should help to prop up household consumption and shift growth drivers more toward domestic demand Moreover, some initial effects Table I.2: Main features of the autumn 2012 forecast - EU (Real annual percentage change unless otherwise stated) Autumn 2012 forecast 2012 2013 2014... pervasive interconnections within the EU and especially the euro area, no country is expected to power ahead in a permanent decoupling 3 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 The German economy is expected to slow down further in the second half of 2012, reflecting weaker economic activity in export markets and uncertainty weighing on investment, before accelerating moderately next year, thanks to relatively... annual rate of only 1.0% (adjusted), mainly reflecting the deterioration in economic and housing market prospects and, in a number of euro-area countries, the need to deleverage following past excesses Loans to non- 15 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 financial corporations shrank by 0.5% (by 0.2% in July) reflecting weakening economic activity and the associated higher credit risk (see Graph I.10)... consumption and investment growth However, oil producers benefited to some extent from recent oil price hikes 13 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 After policy tightening in 2011, monetary and fiscal policy has again shifted to an expansionary stance in order to counteract the current growth slowdown Economic activity in emerging market economies (and developing countries) is thus expected to reaccelerate... prices, annual percentage change 17 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 of structural reforms are expected to become visible in 2014 Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by around 1½% in 2014 The negative output gap is expected to widen until 2013 and to shrink only in 2014 This has to be seen against the background of low estimates for potential GDP growth in 2012- 13 (around ½% for the euro area... HICP index (monthly) (rhs) HICP index (annual) (rhs) Figures above horizontal bars are annual inflation rates European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 1 A MILD RECOVERY AHEAD AMID CONTINUED STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT Graph I.3:Current-account imbalances, euro area 300 Since the second half of 2011, economic growth has been weakening in both the EU and the euro area In both areas real GDP is around ½% below... housing market was still burdened by a stock of 676.038 unsold new housing units and in the first quarter of 2012 still about 3000 more units were completed than sold according to statistics of the Spanish ministry of public works (Ministerio de Fomento) 19 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 Private consumption constrained by negative income and employment developments… declining for several quarters,... 5.5 3.2 -0.7 1.0 3.6 -2.5 -0.4 4.6 -3.4 -1.7 0.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.2 0.1 -0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 21 European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012 the course of 2013 and with Member States benefitting from a lower effective exchange rate and gains in competitiveness, a gradual rebound in export growth is expected over the forecast horizon Export growth in 2013 as a whole is predicted to accelerate modestly to around . European
Economic
Forecast
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 7 |2012
Economic and
Financial Aff airs
Autumn 2012
The European Economy series contains.
European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
European Economic Forecast
Autumn 2012
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