GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2013 006.65 0.887987 +1.987523 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 .887 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523 220 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 48 +1.987521006.65 0 887987 +1.987523 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1. 9 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 +0.1 +2.03 +0.04 -25.301 023 -00.22 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 +1.987521006.65 0 887987 +1.987523006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 +0.1 +2.03 +0.04 -25.301 023 -00.22 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 +1.987521006.65 0 887987 +1.987523006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 +0.1 +2.03 +0.04 -25.301 023 -00.22 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 +0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 -0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 +1.987521006.65 0 887987 +1.987523006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 -0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 +0.1 +2.03 +0.04 -25.301 023 -00.22 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 +0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 -0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 +1.987521006.65 0 887987 +1.987523006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 -0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 +0.1 +2.03 +0.04 -25.301 023 -00.22 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 +1.987521006.65 0 887987 +1.987523006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 ILO Recovering from a second jobs dip GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2013 Recovering from a second jobs dip Global Employment Trends 2013 The annual Global Employment Trends (GET) reports provide the latest global and regional estimates of employment and unemployment, employ- ment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity and working poverty, while also analysing country-level issues and trends in the labour market. Based on the most recently available data and taking into account macro- economic trends and forecasts, the GET reports seek to shed light on cur- rent labour market trends and challenges. The reports build on the ILO’s Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) and include a consistent set of tables with regional and global estimates of labour market indicators. Each report contains a short-term labour market outlook, assessing likely trends and drivers of labour market developments around the world. The Global Employment Trends 2013 report highlights how the crisis is in- creasingly raising trend unemployment rates, partly driven by sectoral shifts of jobs that had been triggered by the crisis. Despite historically low interest rates in many advanced economies, investment and employment have not shown tangible signs of recovery. Depressed growth prospects have started to spread to the developing world where low productivity and wage growth continues to remain an issue in most regions, preventing further improve- ments in employment and disposable incomes, in particular among poorer countries. The report argues that policy-makers need to tackle uncertainty to increase investment and job creation, in particular by providing better coordina- tion of different policy instruments. Also, in countries with high and ris- ing unemployment, job guarantee programmes for targeted labour market groups should be the preferred policy measure. Finally, rising labour market discouragement and structural unemployment should be tackled with new skills and training initiatives to help jobseekers find employment in alterna- tive industries and to promote their employability more broadly. January 2013 ContentsContents Global Employment Trends 2013 Recovering from a second jobs dip INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE • GENEVA ContentsContents Copyright © International Labour Organization 2013 First published 2013 Publications of the International Labour Oce enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Conven- tion. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Permis- sions), International Labour Oce, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: pubdroit@ilo.org. e International Labour Oce welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to nd the reproduction rights organization in your country. e designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presen- tation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Oce concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. e responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Oce of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of rms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Oce, and any failure to mention a particular rm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. ILO publications and electronic products can be obtained through major booksellers or ILO local oces in many coun- tries, or direct from ILO Publications, International Labour Oce, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Catalogues or lists of new publications are available free of charge from the above address, or by email: pubvente@ilo.org Visit our website: www.ilo.org/publns Photocomposed in Switzerland WEI Printed in Switzerland SRO ISBN 978-92-2-126655-6 (print) ISBN 978-92-2-126656-3 (pdf) ISSN 2304-4365 (print) ISSN 2304-2893 (pdf) ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data Global employment trends 2013: Recovering from a second jobs dip / International Labour Oce. Geneva: ILO, 2013 International Labour Oce employment / unemployment / labour market / economic recession / economic development / regional development / trend / Africa / Asia / CIS countries / developed countries / developing countries / EU countries / Latin America 13.01.3 ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data ContentsContents 3 Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1. Macroeconomic challenges have worsened . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 e global economic slowdown intensies in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Protectionism and policy incoherence could createfurtherrisks forthe global economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 e economic outlook remains cloudy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Appendix 1. e ILO hiring uncertainty index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Appendix 2. Public sector, social security and labour market measures inselected countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2. Globallabourmarkettrendsandprospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Unemployment is on the rise again, as job creation slows across most regions . . . . 31 Understanding the scope and nature of the global jobs gap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Trends in employment quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Global outlook for labour markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Appendix 1. Measuring skills mismatches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Appendix 2. Decomposing changes in employment-to-population ratios . . . . . . 43 3. Regional economic and labour market developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Developed Economies and European Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Latin America and the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 South-East Asia and the Pacic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Appendix 1. Trend unemployment during the crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Appendix 2. Okun’s coecients and banking crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Appendix 3. ILO Short-term forecasting models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 4. Structural change for decent work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Decomposing value added per capita growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Labour markets benet from structural change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Contents ContentsContents 4 Global Employment Trends 2013 | Recovering from a second jobs dip Appendix 1. e decomposition of value added per capita growth . . . . . . . . . . 109 Appendix 2. Forecasts and imputations of value added . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Appendix 3. Patterns of growth and labour market outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 5. Recovering from the second jobs dip: Challenges and policies . . . . . . . 119 Tackle uncertainty to increase investment and job creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Coordinate stimulus for global demand and employment creation . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Address labour market mismatch and promote structural change . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Increase eorts to promote youth employment – with a special focus on long-term unemployment for youth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Annexes Annex 1. Global and regional tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 Annex 2. Unemployment projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Annex 3. Global and regional gures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Annex 4. Note on global and regional estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Annex 5. Note on global and regional projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Annex 6. Global employment trends–Regional groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Tables 1. Labour market situation and outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2. Labour market trends in CSEE and CIS countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 3. Labour market trends and prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean . . . 64 4. Labour productivity gains from sectoral reallocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5. Exports from East Asia to the euro area, October 2011 – April 2012 (% change, year-on-year) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 6. Contributions of changes in labour productivity to value added per capita growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 7. Cross-validation results on the precision of sectoral value added share predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Boxes 1. How can uncertainty lead to increased unemployment? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. Concerns over growing skills mismatch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3. New ILO estimates of employment across economic classes in the developing world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 4. What is measured by the Beveridge curve? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 5. Why do some asset price bubbles have worse eects on output and employment than others? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 6. Short-term sectoral forecast for the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 7. Employment-to-population ratios in Samoa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 8. Part-time work and underemployment in Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 9. Youth employment in the Occupied Palestinian Territory . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 ContentsContents Contents 5 Country spotlights 1. Growth and job creation in selected EU countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2. Growth and job creation in Albania, the Russian Federation, Turkey and Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 3. Growth and job creation in Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Peru . . . . . . . . . 68 4. Growth and job creation in Hong Kong, China, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 5. Growth and job creation in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and ailand . . . 76 6. Growth and job creation in Egypt and Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 7. Growth and job creation in Mauritius and South Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Figures 1. Global and regional GDP growth estimates and projections, 2010–14 (annual % change) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2. Global unemployment trends and projections, 2002–17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3. Aggregate demand contributions to real GDP growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4. Euro area European Central Bank loans (annualized growth rates) . . . . . . . 20 5. Quarterly world merchandise trade by region, year-on-year percentage change 21 6. Policy incoherence between scal and monetary policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 7. Annual change in global unemployment and GDP growth, 1999–2017 . . . . 31 8. Changes in GDP growth and unemployment rates, 2011–12, selected economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 9. Job destruction vs. unemployment duration (2007 vs. 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 10. Employment-to-population ratios by sex, world and regions, 2007 and 2012 . 37 11. Decomposition of changes in the employment-to-population ratio, 2007–12 . . 37 12. Output per worker growth, world and regions, selected periods . . . . . . . . . 39 13. Employment by economic class, 1991–2011, developing world . . . . . . . . . . 41 14. Investment is associated with a larger middle-class (2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 15. Unemployment ows: Developed Economies and European Union countries 46 16. e evolution of NEET rates in selected European countries and the Euro area 46 17. Labour market participation gap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 18. e Beveridge curve in Developed Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 19. e Beveridge curve has moved outward in some advanced economies . . . . . 50 20. Occupational shis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 21. e responsiveness of job creation around banking crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 22. Trend unemployment has increased (2011 vs. pre-crisis) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 23. Unemployment ows: CSEE and CIS countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 24. Male and female labour force participation rate, CIS countries and Georgia, 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 25. Male and female employment-to-population ratio, CIS countries and Georgia, 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 26. Incidence of informal employment in Central and Eastern European Countries (2000 vs. 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 27. Trends and projections for vulnerable employment and working poverty . . . . 60 28. Output per worker (CSEE and CIS countries vs. Developed Economies) . . . . 62 29. Decomposition of labour productivity growth: CEES vs. Developed Economies 62 30. Annual growth in Latin America: 1980–2017 (% change) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 31. Unemployment ows: Latin America and the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 32. Informal employment in Latin America (selected countries, 2000 vs. 2010) . . 65 ContentsContents 6 Global Employment Trends 2013 | Recovering from a second jobs dip 33. Declining working poverty and the emergence of a consumer class in Latin America and the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 34. Labour productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean improves less than the world average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 35. Real gross domestic product, Q4 2011 – Q2 2012 (% change, year-on-year) . . 69 36. Trends in growth in output per worker, selected Asian countries, 2000–11 . . 75 37. Variation in structural transformation in South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 38. Disparities in labour force participation rates (2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 39. Youth unemployment rates in South Asia, latest available year . . . . . . . . . . 79 40. Unemployment rates by level of education, Sri Lanka and India (latest available period) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 41. Unemployment rate in Middle Eastern countries (in %, latest year) . . . . . . . 81 42. Public sector employment (latest available year) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 43. Share of women and youth in total unemployment in North Africa, 1991–2012 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 44. Distribution of the working-age population in North Africa, 1991–2015 (%) . 86 45. Occupational distribution in Egypt by sex, 2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 46. Occupational distribution in Morocco by sex, 2008 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 47. Regional shares in the global working-age population, 1991, 2012 and 2017 (projection) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 48. Regional shares of youth population (in %), 1991–2017p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 49. Labour productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, 1991–2012 (’000s) 92 50. Employment distribution by status in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1991, 2000 and 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 51. Decomposition of value added per capita growth into its components, by region and period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 52. e relation of investment and structural change, 1999–2011 . . . . . . . . . . 103 53. Vulnerable employment dynamics and contributors to value added per capita growth in developing economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 54. Working poverty dynamics and contributors to value added per capita growth in developing economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 55. Middle-class employment dynamics and contributors to value added per capita growth in developing economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 56. Youth unemployment dynamics and contributors to value added per capita growth in developing and developed economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 57. Dynamics in the labour force participation gap and contributors to value added per capita growth in developing and developed economies . . . . . . . . . 108 ContentsContents 7 Acknowledgements e Global Employment Trends 2013 report was prepared by the ILO’s Employment Trends Team. e Team is headed by Ekkehard Ernst, who coordinated the production of the report together with Steven Kapsos. e report was supervised by Moazam Mahmood, Director of the Employment and Labour Market Analysis Department, and José Manuel Salazar- Xirinachs, Executive Director. e following authors contributed to the report: Executive summary: Ekkehard Ernst and Steven Kapsos Chapter 1: Steven Kapsos, with inputs from Ekkehard Ernst, Moazam Mahmood and Woori Lee Chapter 2: Steven Kapsos, with inputs from Ekkehard Ernst and eodoor Sparreboom Chapter 3: Developed Economies and European Union: Ekkehard Ernst, Matthieu Charpe, Christian Viegelahn Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS: Olga Koulaeva Latin America and the Caribbean: Juan Chacaltana and Andrés Marinakis East Asia: Phu Huynh South-East Asia and the Pacic: Kee Beom Kim South Asia: Sher Verick Middle East: Ekkehard Ernst and Tariq Haq North Africa: eodoor Sparreboom and Jean-Paul Barbier Sub-Saharan Africa: Michael Mwasikakata and eo Sparreboom Chapter 4: Christian Viegelahn Chapter 5: Ekkehard Ernst, Steven Kapsos, and Christian Viegelahn Country spotlights were prepared by Christina Wieser, who also provided helpful research assistance for the report. Specic mention should be given to Evangelia Bourmpoula for pre- paring the global and regional estimates on the basis of the Global Employment Trends (GET) econometric models and for helpful research assistance. Pinar Hosafci prepared the decompo- sition of employment-to-population rates by demographic group. e publication would not have been possible without the contributions of other members of the ILO’s Employment Trends Team – Philippe Blet, Anne Drougard and Alan Wittrup. e team wishes to acknowledge the comments and suggestions on the dra provided by various ILO regional and country oces, the ILO Conditions of Work and Employ- ment Branch, by Monica Castillo, Department of Statistics, and by Sandra Polaski, Deputy Director-General for Policy; James Howard, Director-General’s Oce; Duncan Campbell, Director of Policy Planning in Employment; and Philippe Egger, Director of the ILO Bureau of Programming and Management. ContentsContents 8 Global Employment Trends 2013 | Recovering from a second jobs dip e analysis provided in the Global Employment Trends series is only as good as the avail- able input data. We take this opportunity to thank all institutions involved in the collection and dissemination of labour market information, including national statistical agencies and the ILO Department of Statistics, in particular Marie-Claire Sodergren. We encourage addi- tional collection and dissemination of country-level data in order to improve the analysis of employment trends provided in future updates of this report. We would like to express our thanks to colleagues in the ILO Department of Commu- nication and Public Information for their continued collaboration and support in bringing the Global Employment Trends to the media’s attention worldwide. ContentsContents 9 Executive summary is Global Employment Trends report for 2013 is a special edition, warranted by the resur- gence of the crisis in 2012. e year 2011 saw a tapering o of the recovery, followed by a dip in both growth and employment in 2012. Unemployment increased by a further 4million over the course of 2012. e report examines the crisis in labour markets of both advanced economies and devel- oping economies. e epicentre of the crisis has been the advanced economies, accounting for half of the total increase in unemployment of 28million since the onset of the crisis. But the pronounced double dip in the advanced economies has had signicant spillovers into the labour markets of developing economies as well. A quarter of the increase of 4million in global un- employment in 2012 has been in the advanced economies, while three quarters has been in other regions, with marked eects in East Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Aica. e report estimates the quantitative and qualitative indicators of global and regional labour markets and discusses the macroeconomic factors aecting the labour markets in order to explore possible policy responses. In estimating labour market indicators, the report uses four key analytical techniques: 1) an ILO hiring uncertainty index indicating persisting weak- nesses; 2)an extension of ILO estimates of the working poor to a full income decomposition of employment to give income classes and their correlation to investment, growth and generation of quality jobs; 3) a breakdown of growth factors which dierentiates between within-sector productivity growth, cross-sector productivity growth, and labour inputs, all of which have signicant implications for growth patterns in advanced and developing economies; and 4) a Beveridge curve which allows some distinction between cyclical and structural factors aecting the labour market. In examining the impact of macroeconomic developments on labour markets, the report looks at negative feedback loops om households, rms, capital markets and public budgets that have weakened labour markets. It nds that macro imbalances have been passed on to the labour market to a signicant degree. Weakened by faltering aggregate demand, the labour market has been further hit by scal austerity programmes in a number of countries, which oen involved direct cutbacks in employment and wages, directly impacting labour markets. Far om the anti-cyclical response to the initial crisis in 2009 and 2010, the policy reaction has been pro-cyclical in many cases in 2011 and 2012, leading to the double dip reported here. e nal chapter of this special edition urges a policy rethink in order to achieve a more sustained recovery in 2013 and beyond. ContentsContents [...]... Labour Market, 7th edition Spain Finland France France Finland Lithuania Turkey Norway Korea United Kingdom Poland Turkey Norway Cyprus Latvia United Kingdom Spain Portugal Korea Germany Poland Hungary Hungary Ireland Latvia Austria Malta Malta Estonia Bulgaria Slovakia Romania Cyprus Slovenia Luxembourg Germany Belgium Italy Austria Slovakia Czech Rep Greece Portugal Croatia Lithuania Ireland Netherlands... agriculture as fast as before and agricultural productivity growth remains low Forecasts indicate that Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are more likely to return to their pre-crisis path of structural change than are Latin America and the Caribbean and Central and South-Eastern Europe The Middle East and North African economies are expected to remain among the least dynamic economies in terms of sectoral re-allocation... re-skill and activate current jobseekers are enhanced 10 Global Employment Trends 2013 | Recovering from a second jobs dip Job creation rates are particularly low, as typically happens after a financial crisis The origins of the crisis in the financial sector weigh on job creation Following banking crises such as the current one, more jobs are destroyed and fewer jobs created as pre-crisis misallocation... Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East also saw a substantial deceleration Figure 1 Global and regional GDP growth estimates and projections, 2010–14 (annual % change) 10 2010 2011 Annual GDP growth (in per cent) 8 2012p 6 2013p 2014p 4 2 0 –2 WORLD Central and Developed South-Eastern Economies Europe and European (non-EU) Union and CIS East Asia South-East Asia and the Pacific South Asia.. .Global labour markets are worsening again In the fifth year after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, global growth has decelerated and unemployment has started to increase again, leaving an accumulated total of some 197 million people without a job in 2012 Moreover, some 39 million people have dropped out of the labour market as job prospects proved unattainable, opening a 67 million global. .. Cyprus Romania Italy Poland Slovakia Switzerland France Spain United Kingdom Latvia Sweden Belgium Norway Portugal Greece Slovenia Denmark Netherlands Czech Rep Austria Hungary Germany Finland Bulgaria Ireland Lithuania Figure B2.2 Skills mismatch in selected developing economies (earliest available year during 2000–04 and latest year during 2006–11) 60 2000–04 (earliest year) 2006–11 (latest year) 50... capital flows amplify the risk of economic and financial instability, particularly in developing economies, as heightened risk aversion can lead to a sudden withdrawal of international capital At the same time, efforts to increase liquidity in financial markets during periods of strain through exceptionally low interest rates and additional, unconventional monetary easing measures can lead to speculative... 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total unemployment Total unemployment (Downside scenario) Annual real GDP growth rates (%) Annual real GDP growth rates (%) (Downside scenario) Note: The chart displays past trends and projections for annual changes in global unemployment The chart also includes projections for the annual change in global unemployment under the assumption of a further deterioration in... surrounding a break-up of the Euro area and sovereign defaults have abated somewhat entering 2013 In the United States, 2 See ILO (2012d) for a discussion on mutualized debt obligations such as Euro bonds 20 Global Employment Trends 2013 | Recovering from a second jobs dip some of the uncertainty overhang was removed with the recent legislation to avoid the “fiscal cliff”, and there have been notable... policy-makers successfully reach agreement to avoid automatic reductions in government expenditure and tax increases, particularly on the middle-class As highlighted above, further deterioration in global trade represents another risk to the global economic recovery Policy leadership and international coordination are needed to avoid protectionism and reaccelerate global trade growth In particular, policies . ILO Recovering from a second jobs dip GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2013 Recovering from a second jobs dip Global Employment Trends 2013 The annual Global Employment. Ernst and Tariq Haq North Africa: eodoor Sparreboom and Jean-Paul Barbier Sub-Saharan Africa: Michael Mwasikakata and eo Sparreboom Chapter 4: Christian