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Macroeconomics 10th Edition Mankiv Books Are The Ever burning Lamps on Your Way to Success Curtis www BookX net MACROECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS N GREGORY MANKIW Harvard University TENTH EDITION Senior Vice President, Content Strategy Charles Linsmeier Program Director, Social Sciences Shani Fisher Executive Program Manager Simon Glick Development Editor Jane E Tufts Assistant Editor Courtney Lindwall Editorial Assistant Amanda Gaglione Marketing Manager Andrew Zierman Marketing Assistant Chelsea S.
Books Are The Ever-burning Lamps on Your Way to Success - Curtis www.BookX.net MACROECONOMICS TENTH EDITION MACROECONOMICS N GREGORY MANKIW Harvard University Senior Vice President, Content Strategy: Charles Linsmeier Program Director, Social Sciences: Shani Fisher Executive Program Manager: Simon Glick Development Editor: Jane E Tufts Assistant Editor: Courtney Lindwall Editorial Assistant: Amanda Gaglione Marketing Manager: Andrew Zierman Marketing Assistant: Chelsea Simens Director of Media Editorial & Assessment, Social Sciences: Noel Hohnstine Associate Media Editor: Nikolas Toner Assessment Manager: Kristyn Brown Assessment Editor: Joshua Hill Media Project Manager: Andrew Vaccaro Director, Content Management Enhancement: Tracey Kuehn Senior Managing Editor: Lisa Kinne Senior Photo Editor: Robin Fadool Director of Design, Content Management: Diana Blume Design Services Manager: Natasha A S Wolfe Cover Designer: John Callahan Text Designer: Kall Design Senior Workflow Manager: Susan Wein Composition: Lumina Datamatics, Inc Cover Art: Kirsten Hinte/Shutterstock Library of Congress Control Number: 2018941309 ISBN: 978-1-319-10605-8 (epub) © 2019, 2016, 2013, 2010 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved 23 22 21 20 19 18 Worth Publishers One New York Plaza Suite 4500 New York, NY 10004-1562 www.macmillanlearning.com About the Author N Gregory Mankiw is the Robert M Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University He began his study of economics at Princeton University, where he received an A.B in 1980 After earning a Ph.D in economics from MIT, he began teaching at Harvard in 1985 and was promoted to full professor in 1987 At Harvard, he has taught both undergraduate and graduate courses in macroeconomics He is also author of the best-selling introductory textbook Principles of Economics (Cengage Learning) Professor Mankiw is a regular participant in academic and policy debates His research ranges across macroeconomics and includes work on price adjustment, consumer behavior, financial markets, monetary and fiscal policy, and economic growth In addition to his duties at Harvard, he has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a member of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, a trustee of the Urban Institute, and an adviser to the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and New York From 2003 to 2005, he was chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers Professor Mankiw lives in Massachusetts with his wife, Deborah, and their children, Catherine, Nicholas, and Peter To Deborah Portugal European sovereign debt crisis and, 539 government debt of, 497t unemployment in, 387 POW camps, commodity money in, 81 Predetermined variables, 444 Preferences, time-inconsistent, 560 Prescott, Edward C., 13, 201, 202n, 232n, 271–272, 273n, 492n Price(s) See also Consumer price index (CPI); Deflation; Disinflation; Hyperinflation; Inflation base-year, 24 current, future money and, 116–118, 117f of factors of production See Factor prices falling, money hypothesis of Great Depression and, 350–352 flexible versus sticky, 11 law of one price and, 160–161 rental, real, of capital, 54 sticky See Sticky price(s) Price levels See also Consumer price index (CPI); Deflation; Disinflation; Hyperinflation; Inflation changing, Mundell-Fleming model with, 390–393, 391f, 392f Price shocks, 298 Primogeniture, management practices and, 245 Principles of Economics (Samuelson), 13 Prisoner of war (POW) camps, commodity money in, 81 Private saving, 68 Production efficiency, economic growth and, 243–245 Production firms, 563 Production function, 47–48 Cobb-Douglas, 56–61, 59f, 150 diminishing marginal product and, 51–52, 52f supply of goods and, 209–210, 210f Productivity of capital, average, 58 of labor, average, 58 management practices and, 244–245 wages and, 189 Productivity growth, slowdown in, 270–271 Profit accounting, 55 definition of, 51 economic, 54–55 The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (Weber), 253 Public policy, frictional unemployment and, 183–185 Public saving, 46, 68 See also Budget deficits; Budget surpluses Purchases, government See Government purchases Purchasing-power parity, 161–164, 161f Q Quality, changes in, overstatement of inflation by CPI and, 36 Quantitative easing, 94–96, 95f Quantity equation, 105 as aggregate demand, 287–288, 288f Quantity theory of money, 104–110 constant velocity assumption and, 107–108 income and, 106 money, prices, and inflation and, 108–110 money demand function and, 106–107 transactions and, 104–106 R The Race between Education and Technology (Goldin and Katz), 61 Radford, R A., 81n Raff, Daniel M G., 191n Random variables, 437 Random walk, 526 Random-walk hypothesis, 557–558 Rao, Krishna, 467n Rating agencies See also Standard & Poor’s Great Recession and, 532 Rational expectations, 422–423, 440 Reagan, Ronald, government debt under, 497 tax cut under, 147, 512 Real-business-cycle theory, 271–272 Real cost of capital, 565 Real exchange rate, 152–156 determinants of, 154–155, 155f policy influence on, 155–156, 155f–157f purchasing-power parity and, 161–162, 161f, 163t, 164 trade balance and, 153, 153f trade policies and, 156–158, 158f Real GDP chain-weighted measures of, 25–26 definition of, nominal GDP versus, 23–24 per person, in United States, 3–4, 3f Real interest rate, 64, 65, 112 in dynamic AD-AS model, 438 ex ante and ex post, 115 Real money balances, 106 Real rental price of capital, 54 Real variables, 129 Real wage, 53 labor productivity as key determinant of, 59–60, 60t Recessions, 275, 277 See also Great Recession definition of, financial crises and, 530 U.S., of 2001, 340–341 Redlick, Charles J., 316n Regulation of financial system, 538 macroprudential versus microprudential, 538 Regulators, Great Recession and, 532 Reich, Michael, 187n Reichsbank, 125 Reifschneider, Dave, 421n Reinhart, Carmen M., 532n Reis, Ricardo, 410n Rent, imputed, 23 Rental firms, 563 Rental price of capital, 54 Rentenbank, 125 Repetto, Andrea, 560n Research and development, economic growth and, 259 Reserve(s), 87 excess, 94 fractional-reserve banking and, 87–89 interest on, 94 100-percent-reserve banking and, 87 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act of 1989, 485 Reserve-deposit ratio, 91, 92, 93 bank failures in the 1930s and, 96–98, 99t Fed changes in, 94–96, 95f Reserve requirements, 94 Resource allocation, institutions guiding, Solow growth model and, 251–253 Returns to scale, constant, 48 Revaluation, 377 Revenue Act of 1932, 348 Ricardian equivalence, 495–496, 506–512 basic logic of, 506–507 consumers and future taxes and, 507–510 Ricardo on, 511 traditional view of government debt versus, 510–512 Ricardo, David, 255, 507 On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, 511 Risk country, exchange-rate expectations and, 380 credit See Credit risk excessive, reducing, 537–538 sharing of, by financial system, 521–522 Risk aversion, 121, 522 Robinson, James A., 252, 253n Rockoff, Hugh, 123n Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 244n Rogers, Will, 79 Rogoff, Kenneth S., 162n, 363n, 532n Romer, Christina D., 478 Romer, David, 243n, 248n, 255, 411n Romer, Paul M., 249n, 256n Roosevelt, Franklin, 378 Rosen, Harvey S., 506n Rotemberg, Julio, 408n, 467n Russia Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t default of, 515 standard of living in, 208t S Sacherdote, Bruce, 202 Sachs, Jeffrey D., 255, 378n Sacrifice ratio, disinflation and, 420–421, 423–425, 424t Sadun, Raffaella, 245n Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 243n Samuelson, Paul A., 13, 333 Sargent, Thomas J., 125n, 126n, 422–423 Saudi Arabia Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t effective investment rate in, 229 Saving economic growth and, 216–218, 217f, 246–248 encouraging, 560–561 fiscal policy effects on, 70–71 as loanable funds, 69 national, 68 private, 68 public, 46, 68 See also Budget deficits; Budget surpluses Sbordone, Argia, 467n Schumpeter, Joseph, 260 Schwartz, Anna J., 97n, 109, 347n, 349, 350 Seasonal adjustment, 31–32 Sectoral shifts, 183 Secular stagnation, 548 Securities and Exchange Commission, 524, 538 Securitization, 353 Seigniorage, 111–112 Services See Demand for goods and services; Goods and services; Supply of goods and services Shadow banks, 534, 536–537 Shapiro, Matthew D., 36n, 475n, 509n, 569, 569n Shaw, George Bernard, 579 Shiller, Robert J., 119, 527n Shleifer, Andrei, 251n Shoag, Daniel, 318n Shocks to aggregate demand See Shocks to aggregate demand to aggregate supply See Shocks to aggregate supply to IS curve, 347–349, 348t–349t in IS-LM model, 339–341 to LM curve, 349–350 Shocks to aggregate demand dynamic AD-AS model and, 454–457, 455f, 456f stabilization policy and, 297–298, 298f Shocks to aggregate supply dynamic AD-AS model and, 451–454, 452f, 453f stabilization policy and, 297–301, 298f, 299f Shoeleather cost of inflation, 120, 124 Short run aggregate supply in, 292–293, 292f, 293f IS-LM model in, 345–347, 345f long run versus, 283–286 transition to long run from, aggregate supply and, 293, 294f, 295–296 Short-run equilibrium, 326–327, 327f, 328f dynamic AD-AS model and, 449, 450f fiscal policy and, 334–336 monetary policy and, 336–337, 337f Short-run Phillips curve, 419–420, 419f, 420f, 581–582 Simonelli, Saverio, 317, 318n Sims, Christopher A., 13, 514n Singapore Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t effective investment rate in, 230f inflation in, 160f legal tradition of, 251 Skill-biased technological change, 61 Slemrod, Joel, 509n Slovenia, capital flows from, 150 Small open economies capital mobility and world interest rate and, 141–142 economic policy analysis and, 146–151 model of, 142–144, 143f with perfect capital mobility, 365 policy influence on trade balance in, 144–146 Smith, Adam, 254, 524, 545 Social capital, 253 Social Security, 499–500 Solow, Robert M., 12, 141, 208n, 269, 271, 416 Solow growth model, 207–234 allocating investment and, 248–250 balanced growth and, 242 capital accumulation and See Capital accumulation convergence and, 242–243 factor accumulation versus production efficiency and, 243–245 Golden Rule level of capital and See Golden Rule level of capital institutions guiding resource allocation and, 251–253 population growth and See Population growth saving rate and, 246–248 technological progress in, 238–241 Solow residual, 269 in short run, 271–273, 272f Solyndra, 250 Souleles, Nicholas S., 557n, 559n South Africa Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t inflation in, 160f South Korea Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t collective bargaining in, 188t effective investment rate in, 230f financial crisis of 1997–1998 in, 384 inflation in, 160f institutions in, 251 trade deficit of, 147 Sovereign debt crisis, European, 539 Soviet Union, cigarettes as commodity money in, 81n Spain collective bargaining in, 188t effective investment rate in, 230f European sovereign debt crisis and, 539 government debt of, 497t inflation and central bank independence in, 487f legal tradition of, 251 unemployment in, 387 Speculative attacks, 388 Spending hypothesis, of Great Depression, 347–349, 348t–349t Spiegelman, Robert G., 185n Stabilization by budget deficits or surpluses, 512 desirability of, 584 tools for, 583–584 Stabilization policy, 296–301, 471–489 active versus passive, 472–480 central bank independence and, 486–488, 487f economic forecasting and, 474–476, 475f historical record of, 477–478 inflation targeting and, 484–486 lags in implementation and effects of, 472–474 Lucas critique and, 476–477 policy uncertainty and, 478–480, 480f rule versus discretion for conducting, 480–488 shocks to aggregate demand and, 297–298, 298f shocks to aggregate supply and, 297–301, 298f, 299f Stagflation, 298–301 OPEC and, 299–301 Staiger, Douglas O., 421 Standard of living convergence of, 242–243 differences in among countries, 207, 208t GDP and, 580 Standard & Poor’s downgrading of rating on Greek debt by, 539 downgrading of U.S credit rating by, 498–499, 586 Statistical discrepancy, 30 Steady state balanced growth and, 242 capital accumulation and, 213–216, 215t Golden Rule level of capital and, 212–216, 215t, 218–221, 219f, 221f with population growth, 226–227, 227f with technological progress, 239–240, 240f transition to, 223–225, 224f, 225f Steinsson, Jón, 285n, 317, 318n Sticky price(s), 11, 284–285, 285t, 286t aggregate supply and aggregate demand and, 286–296 Sticky-price model, 406–408 Sticky wages, 11 Stimulus package, of Obama, 315–317, 354, 498, 533 Stock, James H., 421 Stock markets, 520, 521 crash of 1929 and, 347 as economic indicator, 570–571, 571f efficient markets hypothesis versus Keynes’s beauty contest and, 526–527 recession of 2001 and, 340 Tobin’s q and, 569–571, 571f Stocks (quantities), flows versus, 20 Stocks (securities), 569 Store of value, money as, 80 Stress tests, 537–538 Structural unemployment, 185–191, 186f efficiency wages and, 189–191 minimum-wage laws and, 186–188 unions and collective bargaining and, 188–189, 188t Subprime borrowers, 353 Substitution bias, overstatement of inflation by CPI and, 35 Summers, Lawrence H., 191n, 247n, 273n, 426n, 487n, 488n, 570 Supply aggregate See Aggregate supply (AS); Aggregate supply curve; Dynamic aggregate supply (DAS) curve; Dynamic model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply of goods and services See Supply of goods and services of loanable funds, 68–70, 69f of money See Money supply Supply-and-demand diagram, 7–8, 7f Supply of goods and services, 48 capital accumulation and, 209–210, 210f demand for goods and services and, 67–68 Supply shocks, 297–301, 298f, 299f adverse versus favorable, 298 caused by OPEC, 299–301 Fed accommodation of, 298 natural rate of unemployment estimates and, 421 Phillips curve and, 415 Supply-siders, 314, 506 Surpluses budget, 1, 46, 66, 248 trade, 138 Sweden Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t collective bargaining in, 188t, 189 exchange rate of, 378 inflation and central bank independence in, 487f inflation in, 160f Switzerland Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t collective bargaining in, 188t government debt of, 497t inflation and central bank independence in, 487f inflation in, 160, 160f negative interest rate in, 357 Syria, effective investment rate in, 230f Systematic risk, 522 T Taiwan, Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t Tambalotti, Andrea, 467n Tariff of 1789, 250 TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), 535–536 Tasmania, economic growth of, 232 Tax(es) corporate, 568–569 earned income tax credit and, 187–188 future, Ricardian equivalence and, 507–508 hyperinflation and, 125 incentives and, 506 inflation, 104, 111 inflation and, 120 interest rates and, 65 IS curve and, 335, 336f Keynesian cross and, 312–314, 313f Tax cuts under G W Bush, 149, 314, 341, 497–498, 569 under Johnson, 555 under Reagan, 147, 512 Ricardian equivalence and, 506–512 saving and, 70–71 under Trump, 499 Tax increases under Clinton, 149, 497 under G H W Bush, 149, 497 Tax multiplier, 313–314, 313f Tax rebate, under G W Bush, 556–557 Tax Reform Act of 1986, 568 Tax smoothing, by budget deficits or surpluses, 513 Tax surcharge, under Johnson, 555–556 Taylor, John B., 442, 454, 465 Taylor principal, 463–467 465f Taylor rule, 441–443, 443f Technological externalities, 249 Technological progress economic growth and, 268–269 effect on Solow growth model, 240–241, 241t encouraging, 254–255 income inequality and, 61 labor-augmenting, 239 opposition to, 260 population growth and, 232 skill-biased, 61 in Solow growth model, 238–241 steady state with, 239–240, 240f TED spread, 529, 529f Temin, Peter, 347n Term, interest rates and, 65 Term Auction Facility, 93 Terms of trade, 152 Terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001, recession of 2001 and, 341 Thailand Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t capital flows from, 150 financial crisis of 1997–1998 in, 384 underground economy in, 23 Thaler, Richard H., 561 Theory of Games (von Neumann and Morgenstern), 13 Theory of liquidity preference, 321–324, 322f, 323f Time horizons, 283–287 See also Long run; Short run Time inconsistency of discretionary policy, 482–484 tradeoff between inflation and unemployment and, 492–494 Time-inconsistent preferences, 560 Timmer, Marcel P., 230n Tobacman, Jeremy, 560n Tobin, James, 12, 207, 569 Tobin’s q, 569–571, 571f Trade balanced, 138 free, economic growth and, 254–255 terms of, 152 Trade balances, 137–139, 139t bilateral, irrelevance of, 140–141 policy influence on, 144–146 real exchange rate and, 153, 153f Trade deficits, 138 budget deficit and, 149 of United States, 147, 148f, 149 Trade policies fixed exchange rates and, 378, 379f floating exchange rates and, 372–373, 373f in large open economies, 176, 176f real exchange rate and, 156–158, 158f Trade surpluses, 138 Transactions velocity of money, 105 Transitory income, 553–554 Trilemma of international finance, 389–390, 389f Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), 535–536 Troughs, 276 Trump, Donald, 1, 249 on Chinese currency, 364–365, 390 tax cut under, 499 Tufte, Edward, 481n Turkey Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t collective bargaining in, 188t inflation and money growth in, 110f Twin deficits, 149 U Underground economy, 23 Underwater borrowers, 354, 528 Unemployed persons, 37 Unemployment, 179–194 adoption of euro and, 387 cyclical, 414 duration of, 191–194 European, rise in, 1960–2014, 198–199, 198f European, variation in, 199–200 frictional See Frictional unemployment during Great Depression and Great Recession, 5, 355, 355f, 530 inflation and See Phillips curve natural rate of, 179–180, 421 Okun’s law and, 279–281, 279f, 280f rate of growth of money supply and, 581 rise of European leisure and, 200–202, 201f structural See Structural unemployment in United States, duration of, 191–194 Unemployment insurance, 183–185 extension during Great Recession, 583 increase in U S long-term unemployment and, 192–194, 193f Unemployment rate, 3, 4–5, 5f, 36–40, 37, 38f establishment survey and, 39–40 household survey and, 36–39, 38f in United States, 1950–2017, 179, 180f in United States, variation across demographic groups, 194, 194f Unexpected inflation, costs of, 121–123 Unions, 188–189, 188t United Kingdom Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t collective bargaining in, 188t effective investment rate in, 230f exchange rate of, 378 government debt of, 497t inflation and central bank independence in, 487f inflation in, 160f legal tradition of, 251 unemployment in, rise in, 1960–2014, 198–199, 198f United States Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and, 385 Big Mac price and exchange rate of, 163t central bank of See Federal Reserve collective bargaining in, 188t, 189 decline in labor-force participation, 2007–2017 in, 196–197, 196f, 197t election of 1896 in, 122–123 exchange rate of, 389 financing of American Revolution and, 111–112 gold standard and, 378 government debt of, 497t growth and productivity and real wages during 1960–2016 in, 60, 60t historical performance of economy of, 3–5, 3f–5f inflation in See U.S inflation institutions in, 252 labor force participation rates of men and women in, 38–39, 39f as large open economy, 164–165 legal tradition of, 251 Mexican financial crisis of 1994–1995 and, 383 NAFTA and, 382 nominal interest rate and inflation rate in, 1954–2016, 113, 114f, 115 recession of 2001 in, 340–341 sources of economic growth in, 269–271, 270t standard of living in, 208t trade deficit of, 147, 148f, 149 transitions into and out of labor force in, 195–197, 195t underground economy in, 23 unemployment duration in, 191–194 unemployment rate in, 1950–2017, 179, 180f unemployment rates across demographic groups in, 194, 194t U.S Department of Defense, 250 U.S inflation, 160 central bank independence and, 487, 487f money growth and, 110, 110f of 1970s, causes of, 466–467 unemployment and, 417–419, 417f Unit of account, money as, 80 Used goods, in GDP, 21 Utility, 11 V Value imputed, 23 money as store of, 80 Value added, 22 van Inwegen, Emma, 187n Van Reenen, John, 244, 245 Variables endogenous and exogenous, 6, 6f, 443 functions to express relationships among, 10 instrumental, 255 nominal, 129 predetermined, 444 random, 437 real, 129 Velde, Franỗois R., 295296 Velocity of money constant velocity assumption and, 107–108 income, 106 transactions, 105 Venezuela, hyperinflation in, 103 Vicious circles, financial crises and, 530, 531f Vigdor, Jacob, 187n Vishny, Robert, 251n Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 96n Volcker, Paul, 324, 418, 424, 494, 513, 537 Volcker disinflation, 424–425 Volcker rule, 537 W Wage(s) efficiency, 189–191 minimum-wage laws and, 186–188 productivity and, 189 real, 53 sticky, 11 Wage rigidity, 185 Wagner, Richard, 514 Walmart, 260 Walsh, Kieran, 467n Warner, Andrew, 255 Wascher, William, 421n Washington, George, 483 Watson, Mark W., 421 The Wealth of Nations (Smith), 254 Weber, Max, 253 Weil, David N., 232n, 243n, 248n, 256n Weinberg, Stephen, 560n Wething, Hilary, 187n Wicksell, Knut, 514 Wilcox, David W., 36n, 421n The Wizard of Oz (Baum), 122–123 Woodbury, Stephen A., 185n Woodford, Michael, 356n, 410n, 467n Worker quality, productivity growth slowdown and, 271 WorldCom, 341 World interest rate, capital mobility and, 141–142 Y Yap Island, money on, 82–83 Yellen, Janet L., 190n Yermack, David, 83n Z Zambia, effective investment rate in, 230f Zeckhauser, Richard J., 247n Zero lower bound, 356 Zimbabwe effective investment rate in, 230f hyperinflation in, 103, 128–129 Zimbabwe dollar, 128 ... Consumption and Investment 19 -1 What Determines Consumer Spending? John Maynard Keynes and the Consumption Function Franco Modigliani and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis Milton Friedman and the Permanent-Income... Assistant; Hannah Aronowitz, Editorial Intern; Lisa Kinne, Senior Managing Editor; Tracey Kuehn, Director, Content Management Enhancement; Diana Blume, Director of Design, Content Management; and... CASE STUDY Central-Bank Independence 16 -3 Conclusion Appendix Time Inconsistency and the Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment Chapter 17 Government Debt and Budget Deficits 17 -1 The Size