WaterFoodEnergy Nexus in the Context of Climate Change: Develop a Water Security Index for Water Resources Management in Vietnam45231

Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Context of Climate Change: Develop a Water Security Index for Water Resources Management in Vietnam Nguyen Mai Dang1*, Duong Tran Anh2, Thanh Duc Dang1 Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Vietnam Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam * Correspondence: dang@tlu.edu.vn Abstract: Reasonable distribution of water for food and energy production is pivotal for economic development, environmental protection, and social equality, and this task is becoming more challenging This is because the demand for water, food and energy has increased significantly recently due to population growth, higher standards of living, and industrialization, especially in developing countries like Vietnam Agricultural activities in Vietnam account for about 20% of GDP, and the total freshwater consumption is up to approximately 70% for the irrigation of agricultural cultivation, making it the largest user of water Food production and supply chain also consume about 20% of the total energy production Energy is required to produce, transport and distribute food as well as to extract, pump, collect, transport and treat water Consequently, Vietnam confronts with the problems of water, food, and energy shortages if these links are not thoroughly addressed Additionally, climate change, causing the alteration of weather conditions, will exacerbate a range of risks to water, food and energy Study results to deliver a comprehensive review of water, food and energy nexus in Vietnam and to propose using water security index and coupled water-energy-food modelling for better water resources management plans in the context of climate change Keywords: Water-food-energy nexus; climate change; water resources management; water security; Vietnam Introduction The Water-Energy-Food Nexus is a common concept used to describe and address the complex and interrelated nature of water usage for a variety of social, economic, and environmental targets (FAO, 2014) The three factors (water, energy, and food) are closely linked For example, water is used to rotate turbines for hydropower production and water is also necessary for irrigation and aquaculture production (Vogt, 2010; Ackerman and Fisher, 2013) (as can be seen in Figure 1) However, water supply is sometimes limited, which is caused by resource inavailability Thus, there is water shortage for agricultural and energy production (Feng et al., 2012; Pacetti et al., 2015) This problem normally occurs in fast-growing regions with limited precipitation or inflow The concept “water-energy-food nexus” helps scientists understand better the impact of human activities on the natural environment across different sectors and scales Stakeholders can also identify and manage trade-offs and propose integrated and cost-effective plans (Haase et al., 2012; Lehmann, 2018) Figure Water-Food-Energy nexus in climate change context (developed based on Haase et al., 2012 and Lehmann, 2018) Generally, water shortage is a global problem In a report of Population Action International (PAI), 2.8 billion people in 48 countries are predicted to face water scarcity by 2025 Most countries in the list are from the West and South East Asia, North Africa, and sub Saharan Africa (Aaron, 2008) Among these countries, Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to water scarcity, especially on large river deltas and coastal lowlands such as in the Red River Basin and Mekong River Basin (ADB, 2013) Recently, the economy of Vietnam is growing rapidly, but fast development also contains economic, social, and environmental challenges In the growth model of Vietnam, industrial manufacturing and FDI companies contribute a large percentage of GDP (OECD, 2014) This model, however, requires a lot of natural resources, energy, and water More seriously, in the last decade, the country has been facing with unsustainable development because of burgeoning populations, increasing energy demand, and worsening water scarcity (Figure 2) In the future, climate change is predicted to worsen the problem of water scarcity In this context, water, food, and energy, which are the three most fundamental human needs and economic necessities, have been studied separately However, academic researchers and policymakers have put more and more attention on the emergence of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus since the interlink among these three factors become more apparent (Smajgl et al., 2016) This paper attempts to provide a comprehensive overview of the water, energy and food nexus in Vietnam Figure Global annual average of monthly water scarcity, and the water scarcity in Vietnam is at level (Source: Mekonnen and Koekstra, 2016) Review of water-food-energy framework In the nexus of water-food-energy, water plays a key role (Ripl, 2003) which can be expressed as (1) “water flowing through the veins of the economy” and (2) “water: the bloodstream of the biosphere” This exhibits that water acts as an important factor influencing and influenced by economic development and ecological sustainability (Figure 3) (Hoff, 2011) In a water cycle, water is renewable and unlimited resource, but a rapidly rising global population and growing prosperity are putting unsustainable pressures on this resource Demand for water, food and energy is expected to rise by 30-50% in the next decades (Swatuk and Cash, 2017) Water shortages, however, may result in geopoliticalsocial conflict and irreparable environmental damage Any strategy that focuses on one part of the water-food-energy nexus without considering its interconnections risks serious unintended consequences (World Economic Forum, 2012) Since the WEF Bonn Conference in 2011, several nexus frameworks have been developed (European Report Development, 2012; UNECE, 2015; ICIMOD, 2015) As described in McGrane et al (2018), different boundaries for frameworks are resulted from different purposes with constraints such as land and mineral resources The frameworks have also been developed at different scales, from regional (ICIMOD, 2015) to global (World Economic Forum, 2012) This range of frameworks stems from the complexity of the nexus and points to a need for a hierarchical framework that integrates across scales Such framework, however, is insufficient, and would rely on a variety of tools to represent the nexus from different perspectives and scales This paper focuses more on the case study of Vietnam The status of water consumption and production of food and energy in Vietnam is described and analysed; the solutions to improve water use for food and energy are discussed and proposed Figure Framework for water-food-energy security nexus (developed based on Hoff, 2011) Water Water availability In term of spatial distribution, Vietnam has dense river systems with a total length of rivers up to 41,900 km (WEPA, 2002; 2030WRG, 2017) There are major river basins with more than 10,000 km2 of catchment areas Nevertheless, over half of the total water resources are generated outside the country (ADB, 2009a) More specificially, around 323 km3/year (38%) out of 848 km3/year is generated in Vietnam’s river basins River basins such as Ca and Ma have about 40% of their basins outside the territory of Vietnam, when this rate of Dong Nai is 15% Neighboring countries contribute around 524.71 km3 into the total annual runoff, including 470 km3 from the Mekong River, 44.1 km3 from the Red River, 9.1 km3 from the Ca and Ma rivers, 1.41 km3 from the Dong Nai river (Frenken, 2012) This dependence results in Vietnam’s lack of effective solutions to manage water resources Table presents statistical data of the total area of basins and the percentage of basins in Vietnam and neighboring countries Table Eight large river basins in Vietnam (Frenken, 2012) River basin Total Basin area in % of basin % of basin area in basin area Vietnam (km ) in Vietnam Vietnam and Total (km ) Vietnam area (331,052 km2) Mekong 795 000 63 600 19 Red - Thai Binh 155 000 85 250 55 26 Dong Nai 44 100 37 485 85 12 Ma - Chu 28 400 17 608 62 Ca 27 200 17 680 65 Ba 13 900 13 900 100 Ky Cung - Bang 11 220 10 547 94 Thu Bon 10 350 10 350 100 Total 086 170 256 420 - 77 (includes Da River Basin) Giang In term of temporal distribution, the country has abundant surface water resources all around, but water availability varies largely over the year When the total rainfall amount is considerably high, runoff in the dry season only contributes around 15-30% of the annual flow Figure Water demand distribution for different sector in 2020 (developed based on data from Nhuan et al., 2014) Water demand and supply ADB reports that the total demand of the country is around 80.2 billion m3/year in 2009 (ADB, 2009b), while IWRP (2015) estimates water demand is at 80.6 billion m3/year, and this number increases to 95 billion m3/year in 2030 Water in Vietnam is mostly used for agricultural production (as shown in Figure 4), especially rice production In 2016, the total agricultural water use is at around 76 billion m3/year and is projected to increase to 91 billion m3/year by 2030 Water demand for rice changes over seasons, ranging between 10,000 12,000 m3/ha in the winter-spring growing season and only 5,000 m3/ha in the summerautumn growing season Paddy rice fields in the Mekong Delta require almost 45% of Vietnam’s irrigation water (Figure 5) Thus, to ensure water security, the rice production area is limited beyond 3.8 million (World Bank, 2016) Nevertheless, in order to ensure food security and export, rice production has to increase to 41 to 43 million tons/year in 2020 and 44 million tons/year in 2030 Figure Water demand projections (dry season only) for Mekong, Red-Thai Binh, Dong Nai and SERC (Source: 2030WRG, 2017) Water demand in Vietnam not only increases due to the expansion of agricultural rice farms, but also due to urbanization, industrialization, tourism development, and population growth Although in the future, the predominant water use will remain for irrigation and aquaculture production (86-93%) (ADB, 2008), economic development and population growth will result in further increase of domestic and industrial demand Besides water for food production, hydropower generation is expanded drastically (Middleton, Garcia and Foran 2009) to fulfil the thirst of energy in Vietnam and its neighboring developing economies in South East Asia and China This will definitely influence the availability of water for domestic and agricultural uses in downstream communities (Waibel, 2010) Water for food production and energy production will be discussed in the next sections Food Food production Agricultural production and food industry are the two largest users of water globally, accounting for nearly 80-90% of consumptive water When the world population is predicted to increase to 9.2 billion people in 2050, it is also projected that agricultural and domestic water consumption will increase by 70% and 40%, respectively Consequently, the world may confront with a water shortage in the future This situation may also happen in Vietnam although it is an agricultural exporter Food demand and security The food crisis in 2007 - 2008 reveal a structural problem in the global food system The crisis pushed around 100 million people into poverty and a half of this number in the latter half of 2010 This global problem seriously influenced on Asia - Pacific region Especially, Vietnam was one of the biggest rice exporters worldwide and had to restrict its rice export, causing problems on many other countries who depend on its rice Although the industrial proportion in Vietnam’s GDP is higher, the agricultural sector is still important in its economy This sector accounts for 22% of the country’s GDP and 52% of the country’s employment (IFAD, 2012) Agricultural growth has been accelerating in recent time by improving technology adoption and irrigation areas The Mekong River Delta is the largest rice and fruit production area in Vietnam, accounting for over half of the country production 90% of rice and 65% of aquaculture products are produced here for exports It is noted that agricultural regions in Vietnam, such as the Red River Delta and the Mekong River Delta, are coping with impacts due to urbanization and climate change Although the government keeps 3.8 million hectares of rice fields to fulfill domestic consumption and export demand, the total paddy area is predicted to decrease in the future compared to the current stage Up to 32.2% of agricultural areas will be affected by climate change by the end of the 21st century (JICA, 2013; FAO, 2014) Figure shows that the concept of food security comprises four dimensions, including food availability, food accessibility, supply stability, and utilization In the nexus of water-energy-food, FAO considers food security as an entry point This concept and historical data reveals that the main problem of food security in Vietnam stays in utilization and stability Figure A component of food security (developed from FAO, 2014) Energy Energy production The slope of most rivers in the country is quite steep, so there are high potentials for hydropower development (Anh, 2015) In the last few decades, hydropower plants of various sizes have been developed in Vietnam For example, from 2002 to 2004, 17 mediumto large-sized plants (>100 MW) with a total installed capacity of 2,952 MW and about 20 small-sized plants with total capacity of 500 MW are installed In 2010, the total installed capacity of all power plants increases to over 20,600 MW, equivalent to 3.2 times in 2000 and 1.78 times in 2005 Meanwhile, the total energy production increases 3.2 times between 2000 and 2010 and 1.78 times between 2005 and 2010 According to the Electricity Planning Scheme VII, hydropower output will increase to 17,400 MW in 2020 In order to obtain this target, 1,000 medium and small-sized hydropower projects will be implemented with the total capacity of 7,500 MW When hydropower contributes to 45.5% of electricity generation, Vietnam also has other forms of energy resources, including 615 million tons of crude oil, 600 billion m3 of natural gas, and 5,883 million tons of coal (Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, 2012; DEA, 2017) In term of petroleum, the country is the third-largest producer in Southeast Asia Natural gas is mostly extracted in the southern part of the country, and the discovery of 50 billion m3 gas in the Red River Basin will lead to an increase of gas production in the coming year In 2011, gas turbine power plants accounted for 33.6% and the number for coal power plants is 15.3% Oil and diesel power plants contribute a limited power generation with a total installed capacity of 22 GW (5.6%) Table and Figure show the installed capacity of each technology in 2011 These fossil resources are significant, but rapidly growing energy demand still put more stresses on energy production Subsequently, Vietnam has imported electricity from its neighboring countries by linking its energy network to Laos, Cambodia, and China Table Power Generation by Fuel Type (Dec 2016) (Source: Das, 2019) Power source Capacity (MW) Shared (%) Hydropower 15,857 37.6 Coal fired power 14,448 34.3 Oil fired power 1,370 3.3 Gas fired power 7,502 17.8 Diesel, small hydropower and renewables 2,418 5.8 Import 540 1.2 Total 42,135 100 Figure (left) Energy generation capacity by different fuel sources in 2011 and (right) Forecasted energy demand to 2030 by fuel sources in Vietnam (developed based on data from Thuy and Bundit, 2014) Energy consumption In different sectors, energy consumption is often the opposite of water uses For excample, industrial areas use most of electricity (33%) while agricultural production only accounts for 1% of energy consumption in Vietnam Residential areas and transportation activities account for 33% and 24% of energy consumption respectively when service sections only need 3% Figure shows the energy production in proportion by sector in 2012 (MIT, 2012) Figure Energy consumption by sectors Energy development In 2015, hydropower plants (59.76%), gas turbine plants (22.45%), coal-fired power plants (33.45%), renewable energy (5.37%), and import (1.42%) with a total installed capacity of 45,600 MW are the main source of power generation in Vietnam Among these resources, hydro and renewable energy sources are constrained by water availability, limited construction sites, and high cost, when nuclear power raises public attention due to safety issues Table Forecasted energy generation by power sources to 2030 (Source: DEA, 2017) Power Source 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewable energy 5.37% 9.9% 12.5% 21% Coal 33.45% 42.7% 49.3% 42.6% Gas Turbine 22.45% 14.9% 15.6% 14.7% Hydro 37.31% 31.1% 21.1% 16.9% Import 1.42% 2.4% 1.5% 1.2% Nuclear - - - 3.6% Total (MW) 45,600 60,000 96,500 129,500 Electricity demand is projected to increase at the rate of 10.5% per year during 20162020, and the rate may slightly reduce to 8.0% per year during 2021-2030 Correspondingly, electricity consumption is predicted to increase to 234.6 TWh in 2020 and 506.0 TWh in 2030, respectively Electricity consumption in 2030 is about times higher in comparision to that in 2014 The peak demand is expected to reach 42.1 GW in 2020 and 90.7 GW in 2030, respectively Table presents important indicator of energy production and consumption in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 Table Electricity demand actual and project to 2030 (Source: DEA, 2017) Item 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual demand (TWh) 141.8 234.6 252.3 506.0 Annual generation (TWh) 161.3 265.4 400.3 571.8 Maximum demand (GW) 25.3 42.1 63.5 90.7 Per capita consumption (kWh) 1,560 2,545 3,610 4,950 Notes: GW: gigawatt; kWh: kilowatt hour; TWh: terawatt hour Water-related affect by climate change in Vietnam Vietnam is among the top countries influenced by climate change, especially its coastal and river deltas The main manifestations of climate change impacts on water resources include the modification of water availability and spatial distribution with more extreme events (Giang et al., 2012) This study projects that the amount of water availability will reduce by 96%, 91%, and 86% respectively compared to today’s quantity Currently, the Mekong Delta accounts for approximately 60% of surface water of the nation, and the remaining 40% is shared by other regions, having 80% of Vietnam’s population and 90% of the national production Among these regions, there are several mountainous river basins, such as the Central Coast and the Southeast, with very high flow gradients Consequently, floods are one of the most dangerous disasters in the country Besides flood risk, Vietnam also faces with tropical typhoons due to 2,000 km2 of coastal zones UNDP (2003) The country, which is located in the northwest of Pacific Ocean, is along the typhoon route and is ranked as one of the top ten countries most vulnerable to typhoons Around seven typhoons hit the country every year, especially the northern and central Vietnam (MONRE, 2003) Reports from MARD (2001) and IPCC (2007) figure out the number of typhoon events may fluctuate over year, but the intensity of typhoons has increased with higher wind speeds and rainfall intensification Additionally, typhoons tend to move southwards in the recent decades (European Union, 2006) Consequently, this phenomenon changes local livelihoods and environmental protection activities Under the impact of climate change, floods occur more often than in the last century With the increase of population and economic development, flood damage is expected to excavate to 12-19% in 2070 (MONRE, 2003) In coastal areas, sea level rise will force the government to implement more costly hard solutions Actually, sea level rise has been observed along the coastline of Vietnam with a rate of mm/year during the period of 19932008 Sea level will rise by 30 cm in 2050 and 75 cm in 2100 compared to the 1980-1999 period (MONRE, 2009) It is considerably difficult to develop long-term adaptation strategies due to the wide band of climatic projections for Vietnam The 2012 report of MONRE shows the average temperature will increase from 1.9°C-3.1°C over the country with the highest increase in the central Vietnam Days with high temperatures will be expected to increase by 10-20 days in large parts of the country Meanwhile, the decrease of precipitation in the dry season, resulting in the higher risk of drought, while the increase of rainfall in the wet season will increase flood risk in the river deltas and coastal lowlands Water Security index method for river basin In order to consider the affordability of water and water demand, in 2000 the Global Water Partnership proposed the definition of water security (Cook and Bakker, 2012) Water security means reliable water source availability for human, livelihoods, and production with a certain level of water-shortage risks Water security assessment for basin-scale can be carried out with the framework in Table This framework includes five variables and eight indicators (Babel & Shinde, 2018) The variable measures each indicator is then normalized to the range to using reference values from literature and expert opinion These normalized values are aggregated together using equal weights When there is one variable more significant than the others, weights are already considered in the normalization method Using this procedure, indicators are calculated and then arranged into dimensions Subsequently, dimensions are placed in the overall WSI: WSI = (Score for DIM1 + Score for DIM2 + Score for DIM2 + Score for DIM4 + Score for DIM5) / where: DIM1 = Water availability, DIM2 = Water productivity, DIM3 = Water-related disasters, DIM4 = Watershed health, and DIM5 = Governance Babel et al (2015) developed an operational framework to assess water security at two different scales—city, and basin The framework used the DPSIR technique to identify the various dimensions and indicators for the two different scales of assessment In order to facilitate the measurement of water security, the framework has a provision to quantify the indicators and dimensions between ranges and using reference standards from literature and expert opinion These are then aggregated into an overall water security index to depict the water security situation of the city and basin An interpretation system of the various magnitudes of the water security index was then established to elucidate the information portrayed by the index The research was to apply the framework in three study areas - India, Thailand and Vietnam The areas included the Banas River Basin and Jaipur city in India; Chao Phraya River Basin and Bangkok city in Thailand; and Red River Basin and Hanoi city in Vietnam Dang et al (2016) presented an assessment of water security based on the developed framework for city scale, Hanoi The governance and adaptation dimension is well developed, while the environment dimension is quite low level even the improvement was done Together with the effort of government and local people, the water security condition will be higher in the near future Some results have not been normalized yet However, the ratios of water supplied, water demand as well as the treatment wastewater and others help for better understanding of water security in Hanoi city In 2017, the application for basin scale in the Red River of Vietnam was conducted Five dimensions such as water availability, water productivity, water related disaster, watershed health and water governance are considered It is indicated that the Red river has a moderate level of water security during 2010 to 2015 This requires the integrated water resource management in Red - Thai Binh river basin to improve the control, monitoring and management capacity (Dang et al., 2017) Table Framework for basin -scale assessment of water security (Babel & Shinde, 2018) Dimension Indicator Potential variables Suggested ways to measure Water Sustainable Per capita water Surface runoff/Population availability basin availability (Falkenmark, 1989) exploitation Water scarcity Annual per capita water resources availability (Babel and Wahid, 2008) Water variation The coefficient of variation of precipitation over the last 50 years (Babel and Wahid, 2008) Water Economic value Commercial/industrial Non- agricultural GPP/Non- productivity of water revenue per drop agricultural water use in the basin (ADB, 2013) Agricultural, aquaculture Agricultural, aquaculture and and livestock revenue per livestock GPP/ drop Agricultural, aquaculture and livestock water use in the basin (ADB, 2013) Water related Drought factor Drought damage disasters Economic damage caused by droughts Proportional area under Drought area/Total area (Xiao, Li, drought Xiao, & Liu, 2007) Drought occurrence Number of drought occurrence per frequency year (Koontanakulvong, Doungmanee, & Hoisungwan, 2013) Ratio of the area with Area of irrigation/ Area of arable water saving irrigation to land (Xiao, Li, Xiao, & Liu, 2007) the total area of arable land Flood factor Flood damage Economic damage caused by floods Proportional area of Flooding area/Total area (Xiao, Li, flooding Xiao, & Liu, 2007) Flood occurrence Number of flood occurrence per frequency year (Koontanakulvong, Doungmanee, Hoisungwan, 2013) Percentage of population Population living in hazard -prone living in hazard-prone areas areas/Total population on (Mehr, 2011) Flood control capacity Ratio of the water reserved in dams at the end of the year to the total water utilization (Xiao, Li, Xiao, Liu, 2007) Watershed Health of water Surface water quality Dissolve d oxygen health bodies factor concentration/Permissible limit Groundwater quality Concentration of site -specific factor pollutants /Permissib1e limits of these pollutants Average class water Country- specific conditions (ADB, quality rivers 2013) Biochemical oxygen BOD 5—day values of river water demand (BOD) in water samples (Mehr, 2011) bodies Vegetation Natural vegetation facto r Natural vegetation area/Basin area Institution factor Questionnaire cover Water Overall, governance management of the water sector Potential to Adaptability factor Questionnaire adapt to future changes Water Security Index will provide an overview of physical, socio-economic, and governance dimensions of water management in the country Coupling water-energy-food models should be considered to understand how climate change, population growth, and economic development effect water, food, and energy security in Vietnam Recently, Chowdhury et al (2018) coupled a hydrological model named the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) with a Network Constrained Unit Commitment (NCUC) model to study the impact of climate variability on energy shortfall in Laos In order to obtain safe solutions for the nexus of water, food, and energy, Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) should be implemented IWRM is a concept that reforms the water sector and promotes the coordinate development and management of water, land, and related resources to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare without compromising the sustainable development (Zeitoun, 2011) Figure shows how social and physical processes are combined to create or deny water security Sustainable water security is a function of the degree of equitability and balance between many socioeconomic and political factors Figure Water security related to other key elements security (adapted from Zeitoun, 2011) Conclusions The rapid growth of Vietnam’s economy improves the living standard of people, but it also leads the country to confront with many problems such as water, food, and energy shortage As the impact of climate change on every aspect of agricultural and industrial production activities becomes more apparent, it is predicted that the country will face more challenges in the future Among the three factors, water is the key resource and plays a central role in producing food and energy Thus, solutions for sustainable water resources management are needed In order to improve water security, it requires a holistic understanding of the proportion of water uses for food and energy production and other activities This can only be implemented by a comprehensive water-food-energy database for the whole country A water security index assessment can be implemented to provide guidance for master plans Then, coupled water-food-energy models can be considered in the implementation stages It is expected that the outcome of this study will raise more public attention on the nexus of water-food-energy in the country References Aaron, G W (2008) Vital Water Graphics: An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and Marine Waters - 2nd Edition, United Nations Environment Program Environment for development, 1-88 Ackerman, F., Fisher J (2013) Is there a water - energy nexus 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Eight large river basins in Vietnam (Frenken, 2012) River basin Total Basin area in % of basin % of basin area in basin area Vietnam (km ) in Vietnam Vietnam and Total (km ) Vietnam area (331,052... basin An interpretation system of the various magnitudes of the water security index was then established to elucidate the information portrayed by the index The research was to apply the framework