... plots of the data and reports of forecasting results DISCUSSION OF DATA AND FORECASTING RESULTS In Figure 1A are shown plots of the real rates of growth of GDP, M1, currency, stock prices, and ... lagged levels of S, lagged rates of change of real stock prices, S R, and real money, m, and current rates of change of real wage rates, W , and real GDP, Y The variables m and Y are “demand shifters,” ... RMSE of 2.23 and MAE of 1.90 and the aggregate AR(3)LI model’s RMSE of 2.32 and MAE of 1.98 The RMSE and MAE for the aggregate AR(3) benchmark model are 2.32 and 1.71, respectively Clearly, use of...