Determinants of Currency crises in Emerging economies in 1996-2005 An Early Warning System Approach

... study aims to answer the following questions: What are the key determinants of currency crises in emerging economies in the period 1996-2005 in the light of early warning system approach? (especially, ... of 52 Chapter Theories of currency crises - A brief review of the literature In the literature of financial crises, there are banking crises, (so...

Ngày tải lên: 26/05/2015, 08:42

... effect to Argentina was also avoided in case of financial crisis of Brazil in 1998-1999 What was striking in case of Asia was (1) crises to be contemporaneous in time, and Short-term interest rate ... decline in the stock prices in the region In Korea, the decline of stock price was temporarily interrupted in the first half of the year but continued in the se...

Ngày tải lên: 31/10/2014, 17:17

... ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 1. 1 Emerging Asia: real GDP growth forecasts, 19 96-98 19 96 Country Indonesia Thailand South ... 1. 2 Rating agencies’ performance before the Asian crisis: Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s long-term debt ratings,a 19 96-97 15 January 19 96 Rating | http://www.iie.com Moody’s fore...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... liberalization and its attendant credit booms 12 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com forerun banking crises in Japan, in several Scandinavian countries, ... weak and when an extensive For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (1996), Hono...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... 1-month change Semiannual change Annual growth rate Level Level Level Level Level Level Level Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Semiannual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual ... ‘‘predicting’’ financial crises Specifically, we examine the performance of the Institutional Investor and Moody’s ratings As noted, in most cases we focus on 12-month changes in the varia...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... an P(C) (1998) improvement) P(C͉S) 0.35 52 24. 0 14. 1 0 .46 0 .46 0. 54 0.68 0.68 0.73 76 63 90 79 96 100 23 .4 18.3 17.3 14. 3 16.8 15.6 11.2 9.0 7.2 4. 7 4. 2 3.7 0 ‫1ם‬ ‫1מ‬ 0.73 0. 84 0.88 64 72 44 ... Bank deposits 0.22 0.32 0 .46 0.51 0.51 0.57 0.57 58 Difference in Ranking rank P(C͉S)‫ ؁‬in K & R (‫ ם‬denotes an P(C͉S) P(C) (1999) improvement) 66 80 75 71 57 62.1 46 .0 47...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Uruguay, and Venezuela An unbalanced panel, in this case, refers to the fact that we not have the same number of observations for all the countries 46 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for ... consistent with other 48 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com research on ratings performance Cantor and Packer (199...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... signaling for the 20 emerging 62 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 5 .6 Vulnerability to financial crises in emerging markets: alternative ... 44 56 11 44 44 44 33 22 33 11 33 56 44 33 11 22 Rank Average of ‘‘weighted’’ signals Rank 3 2 3 6. 69 6. 94 6. 82 5.74 11.23 16. 33 6. 42 14.21 7.93 8.34 10.10...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... bilateral and third-party) but emphasize financial sector links In an early paper on the subject, Frankel and Schmukler (1996) find evidence of contagion in emerging market mutual funds Trade and Financial ... and the economy 73 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com Table 6.1 Crises that showed few signals, 1 970 - 97 Type of crisis and sample Banking, 1 970...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) crisis and the strong growth performance of the Australian economy in 19 98 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar For a comparison ... Thailand Turkey Uruguay Venezuela Thai crisis (July 1997) Brazilian crisis (January 1999) 16.65 18. 4 12.5 0 0 n.a 2.57 14. 08 0 0 0 12.5 0 0 0 16.65 28. 33 0 4.32 26. 58 0 n.a 0 29.15 n.a...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... periods: an 18-month period running from the beginning of 199 6 to the end of June 199 7 (just before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis) and a 24-month period running from January 199 6 to ... order) for the 199 6 to mid- 199 7 period were as follows: South Africa, Czech Republic, Thailand, South Korea, and the Philippines (table 8.2) For the somewhat longer 199 6 to end of D...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... (1998c), and Wyplosz (1997, 1998) 104 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com noncrisis countries (particularly Argentina and Mexico) and the Asian ... currency and banking crises coincide, the postcrisis performance would show up in both the averages for currency and banking crises See chapter for details SUMMARY OF RESULTS AN...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... determinants of diet in elderly, factors influencing diet in elderly, determinants of nutrition status in elderly, determinants of food choice (intake/consumption/habits/practices) in older people, ... discretion of the authors Determinants of healthy eating in older people Individual Determinants of Healthy Eating Individual components motivating...

Ngày tải lên: 14/02/2014, 06:20

... Determinants of male involvement in maternal and child health services in sub-Saharan Africa: a review John Ditekemena1* * Corresponding author Email: Jditekemena@pedaids.org Olivier ... Byamugisha R, Astrom AN, Ndeezi G, Karamagi CA, Tylleskar T, Tumwine JK: Male partner antenatal attendance and HIV testing in eastern Uganda: a randomized facilitybased i...

Ngày tải lên: 22/03/2014, 12:20