assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 8 docx

... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 19 98 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar. 1. For a comparison ... multiple channels of contagion may be operating at once. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 88 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 7.3 Comparison of infl...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Goldstein 1998a; Corsetti, Pesenti, and Roubini 19 98; BIS 19 98) . Thailand’s commitments in the forward exchange market and South Korea’s lending of international reserves to commercial banks meant that ... Demirgu ¨ c ¸ -Kunt and Detragiache (19 98) , Eichengreen and Rose (19 98) , IMF (1998c), Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), and Lindgren et al. (1996). Institute for International Economic...

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... of nearly $50 billion for Mexico in 1994-95; over $120 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997- 98; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 19 98; and another $42 billion for ... See Leiderman and Thorne (1996) and Calvo and Goldstein (1996) for an analysis of the Mexican crisis. 4. These alternative explanations of the Asian crisis are discussed in BIS (19 98)...

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... 1 985 1990 December 1994 1994 1994 Chile 1976 September 1 981 1 981 Colombia July 1 982 1 982 1 982 April 19 98 Czech Republic 1994 n.a. n.a. Denmark March 1 987 n.a. 1 988 Egypt January 1 980 1 980 1 981 January ... dates K&R(1999) and G, K, & R C & K IMF (1996 Country (beginning) (1996) and 1998a & b) Argentina March 1 980 1 980 1 980 May 1 985 1 985 1 985 1 989 Dece...

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... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY banking crises, the maximum ranking change is ... with a considerable lag and hence tend to be of less use from an early warning standpoint. Table 3.6 presents the lead times for our monthly indicators—both for currency and banking...

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... other Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... countries can tap international financial markets. In their analysis, they focus on the sovereign ratings of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s; in what follows, we ex...

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... 14.56 3 Thailand* 35 8 44 2 13.36 5 Turkey 35 8 33 3 8. 04 10 Uruguay 28 12 11 5 4 .88 18 Venezuela 31 9 22 4 6.02 16 Note: An asterisk (*) denotes the country had a currency crisis, a banking crisis, ... to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Recent events, however, have highlighted the importance of improving upon a system...

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... gen- eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.024 and 1.620 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.0 18 and 1. 589 for the real exchange rate forecast during tranquil and ... Radelet and Sachs (19 98) , who argue these crises are the byproduct of a financial panic. 6. It is noteworthy that finance companies had been receiving substantial assistance f...

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... RESULTS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 97 Table 8. 1 Currency and banking crises: best-performing indicators Currency crises Banking crises High-frequency indicators Real exchange rate Real exchange rate Banking ... Economics | http://www.iie.com 96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between 50 and 100 percent of the banking and cur...

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... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna- tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 1 08 ASSESSING FINANCIAL ... of Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco (1996). 11. See Berg and Pattillo (1999), The Economist (19 98) , Furman and Stiglitz (19 98) , IMF (1998c), and Wyplosz (1997, 19 98) . In...

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