assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 7 pdf

... five or less and sample crises indicators signaling indicators signaling Banking, 1 970 -95 29 3 10.3 Currency, 1 970 -95 87 12 13.5 Banking, 1996- 97 6 1 16 .7 Currency, 1996- 97 6 1 16 .7 some of the ... to which crises probabilities increased for other emerging markets following the Mexican crisis of 1994 and the Asian crisis of 19 97, owing to trade and financial links. Most...

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... 3 Table 1.1 Emerging Asia: real GDP growth forecasts, 1996-98 1998 Actual Country 1996 19 97 (as of May 19 97) 1998 Indonesia 7. 8 4.9 7. 5 מ13 .7 Thailand 6.4 מ1.3 7. 0 מ8.0 South Korea 7. 1 5.0 6.3 ... of loans that were eventually repaid. See Honohan (19 97) . 3. See Goldstein (19 97) for a list of these severe banking crises. For comparison, the public- sector tab for the US...

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... of nearly $50 billion for Mexico in 1994-95; over $120 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South Korea in 19 97- 98; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 1998; and another $42 billion for ... 19 97, for instance). 10. SeeKrugman (1998), Dooley (19 97) , and Calomiris (19 97) on the role of expected national and international bailouts in motivating capital flows and/or banking...

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... 1983 Philippines January 1981 1981 1981 July 19 97 South Africa December 1 977 1 977 1980 South Korea January 1986 n.a. 1983 July 19 97 19 97 Spain November 1 978 1 977 1 977 Sweden November 1991 1991 1990 Thailand ... December 1 971 August 1 972 October 1 973 December 1 974 January 1 976 August 1982* September 1984 Colombia March 1983* February 1985* Czech Republic May 19 97 Denmar...

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... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY banking crises, the maximum ranking change is ... 0.51 75 42.3 14.9 5 0 Output 0. 57 71 43.0 12.5 6 0 Excess real M1 0. 57 57 40.1 12.3 7 0 balances Reserves 0.58 72 38.9 12.2 8 0 M2 multiplier 0.59 72 39.2 11.6 9 0 Domestic credit/...

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... other Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... summarized in table 3 .7. They do indeed suggest that bank-specific information could makeanimportant contribution in assess- ing the vulnerability of the banking sect...

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... http://www.iie.com 62 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 5.5 Weighting the signals for currency and banking crises in emerging markets, June 1996-June 19 97 Currency crises Banking crises Country ... to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Recent events, however, have highlighted the importance of improving upon a syste...

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... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 1998 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar. 1. For a comparison ... 16.65 and 4.32, 5. See Kaminsky and Reinhart (2000) for details on the pattern of trade. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 86 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILIT...

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... RESULTS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 97 Table 8.1 Currency and banking crises: best-performing indicators Currency crises Banking crises High-frequency indicators Real exchange rate Real exchange rate Banking ... meltdown. Table 7. 5 presents these measures of severity for the 76 currency crises and 26 banking crises in the Kaminsky-Reinhart sample. For the 1 970 -94 sample, currency and ban...

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... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna- tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 108 ASSESSING FINANCIAL ... Morespecifically, the ‘‘tranquil’’ period excludes the 24 months beforeand after currency crises and the 24 months before and 36 months after banking crises. 13. In the cas...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20