assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt
... 3
Table 1. 1 Emerging Asia: real GDP growth forecasts, 19 96-98
19 98 Actual
Country 19 96 19 97 (as of May 19 97) 19 98
Indonesia 7.8 4.9 7.5 13 .7
Thailand 6.4 1. 3 7.0 מ8.0
South Korea 7 .1 5.0 6.3 ... Radelet and Sachs (19 98).
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 6 ppt
... Africa 55 10 3 1 1 0 43
South Korea 42 10 4 3 3 1 57
Spain 51 7 1 1 1 0 35
Sweden 59 5 1 1 1 0 26
Thailand 53 6 2 1 1 1 30
Turkey 27 5 3 2 2 0 30
Uruguay 74 5 1 1 1 0 26
Venezuela 18 4 1 2 2 0 ... Philippines* 14 .40 5 11 .52 7
South Africa 16 .52 1 12.74 4
South Korea* 14 .57 4 14 .55 2
Thailand* 14 .63 3 12 .09 5
Turkey 8. 21 9 7.87 11
Uruguay 4.40 18...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 10 pptx
... Asian crisis than the models of Frankel and Rose (19 96) and of Sachs,
Tornell, and Velasco (19 96).
11 . See Berg and Pattillo (19 99), The Economist (19 98), Furman and Stiglitz (19 98), IMF
(19 98c), ... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna-
tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 2 potx
... weak and when an extensive
9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel
(19 96a, 19 96b), Goldstein and Turner (19 96), Honohan (19 95), and Sundararajan ... of nearly $50 billion
for Mexico in 19 94-95; over $12 0 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South
Korea in 19 97-98; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 19 98; and...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3 pot
... 19 91 19 91 1990
Thailand March 19 79 19 83 19 83
May 19 96 19 97
Turkey 19 82
January 19 91 1992 19 91
1994 19 94
Uruguay March 19 71
March 19 81 19 81 19 81
Venezuela 19 80 19 80
October 19 93 19 94 19 93
n.a. ... n.a. 19 83
Philippines January 19 81 19 81 19 81
July 19 97
South Africa December 19 77 19 77 19 80
South Korea January 19 86 n.a. 19 83
July...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 4 pot
... 0.73 10 0 15 .6 3.7 8 0
differential
Bank deposits 0.73 64 12 .9 3 .1 9 0
M2/reserves 0.84 72 11 .4 1. 7 10 0
Excess real M1 0.88 44 11 .0 1. 2 13 ם2
balances
Domestic credit/ 0.89 46 10 .9 1. 1 11 1
nominal ... 16
Imports 16 11
Lending-deposit interest rate ratio 13 6
M2 multiplier 16 12
M2/reserves 13 14
Output 16 13
Real exchange rate 17 10
Real interest rat...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 5 doc
... error effects Probability R
2
12 -month change in מ0.9 21 1.672 מ0.070 0.4 21 0.004
the Institutional
Investor rating
12 -month change in מ0.053 0 .19 3 מ0.0 01 0.770 0.0 01
Moody’s rating
Table 4.3 Do ... rating
12 -month change in מ0.22* 0 .10 1 מ0.009 0. 013 0.0 21
Moody’s rating
*Denotes significance at the 5 percent level.
serial correlation and for heteroscedasticity in the re...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 7 pdf
... 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1. 0
Malaysia
19 90 19 91 1992 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1. 0
The Philippines
19 90 19 91 1992 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1. 0
Thailand
Note: ... 5 .1 Probability of currency crisis for four Southeast Asian
countries, 19 90-97
19 90 19 91 1992 19 93 1...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 8 docx
... America
Argentina 1 1 1
Bolivia
Brazil 1 1 1 1
Chile 1 1
Colombia 1 1
Denmark
Finland
Indonesia 1 1
Israel
Malaysia 1 1 1
Mexico 1 1 1
Norway
Peru 1
The Philippines 1 1 1
South Korea 1 1
Spain
Sweden
Thailand ... the European
exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance
of the Australian economy in 19 98 coincident with a large depreciation...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 9 ppsx
... AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 99
Table 8.2 Country rankings of vulnerability to currency crises for
two periods
a
January 19 96-June 19 97 January 19 96-December 19 97
Experienced Experienced
Country Rank ... turns
into a crisis and when banking crises end. For example, by our criteria,
banking distress in Indonesia and Mexico really began in 19 92 (and not
in 19 97 and 19 94, respectiv...
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