assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt

... 3 Table 1. 1 Emerging Asia: real GDP growth forecasts, 19 96-98 19 98 Actual Country 19 96 19 97 (as of May 19 97) 19 98 Indonesia 7.8 4.9 7.5 13 .7 Thailand 6.4 1. 3 7.0 מ8.0 South Korea 7 .1 5.0 6.3 ... Radelet and Sachs (19 98). Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Africa 55 10 3 1 1 0 43 South Korea 42 10 4 3 3 1 57 Spain 51 7 1 1 1 0 35 Sweden 59 5 1 1 1 0 26 Thailand 53 6 2 1 1 1 30 Turkey 27 5 3 2 2 0 30 Uruguay 74 5 1 1 1 0 26 Venezuela 18 4 1 2 2 0 ... Philippines* 14 .40 5 11 .52 7 South Africa 16 .52 1 12.74 4 South Korea* 14 .57 4 14 .55 2 Thailand* 14 .63 3 12 .09 5 Turkey 8. 21 9 7.87 11 Uruguay 4.40 18...

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... Asian crisis than the models of Frankel and Rose (19 96) and of Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco (19 96). 11 . See Berg and Pattillo (19 99), The Economist (19 98), Furman and Stiglitz (19 98), IMF (19 98c), ... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna- tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie...

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... weak and when an extensive 9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel (19 96a, 19 96b), Goldstein and Turner (19 96), Honohan (19 95), and Sundararajan ... of nearly $50 billion for Mexico in 19 94-95; over $12 0 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South Korea in 19 97-98; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 19 98; and...

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... 19 91 19 91 1990 Thailand March 19 79 19 83 19 83 May 19 96 19 97 Turkey 19 82 January 19 91 1992 19 91 1994 19 94 Uruguay March 19 71 March 19 81 19 81 19 81 Venezuela 19 80 19 80 October 19 93 19 94 19 93 n.a. ... n.a. 19 83 Philippines January 19 81 19 81 19 81 July 19 97 South Africa December 19 77 19 77 19 80 South Korea January 19 86 n.a. 19 83 July...

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... 0.73 10 0 15 .6 3.7 8 0 differential Bank deposits 0.73 64 12 .9 3 .1 9 0 M2/reserves 0.84 72 11 .4 1. 7 10 0 Excess real M1 0.88 44 11 .0 1. 2 13 ם2 balances Domestic credit/ 0.89 46 10 .9 1. 1 11 1 nominal ... 16 Imports 16 11 Lending-deposit interest rate ratio 13 6 M2 multiplier 16 12 M2/reserves 13 14 Output 16 13 Real exchange rate 17 10 Real interest rat...

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... error effects Probability R 2 12 -month change in מ0.9 21 1.672 מ0.070 0.4 21 0.004 the Institutional Investor rating 12 -month change in מ0.053 0 .19 3 מ0.0 01 0.770 0.0 01 Moody’s rating Table 4.3 Do ... rating 12 -month change in מ0.22* 0 .10 1 מ0.009 0. 013 0.0 21 Moody’s rating *Denotes significance at the 5 percent level. serial correlation and for heteroscedasticity in the re...

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... 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1. 0 Malaysia 19 90 19 91 1992 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1. 0 The Philippines 19 90 19 91 1992 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1. 0 Thailand Note: ... 5 .1 Probability of currency crisis for four Southeast Asian countries, 19 90-97 19 90 19 91 1992 19 93 1...

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... America Argentina 1 1 1 Bolivia Brazil 1 1 1 1 Chile 1 1 Colombia 1 1 Denmark Finland Indonesia 1 1 Israel Malaysia 1 1 1 Mexico 1 1 1 Norway Peru 1 The Philippines 1 1 1 South Korea 1 1 Spain Sweden Thailand ... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 19 98 coincident with a large depreciation...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 99 Table 8.2 Country rankings of vulnerability to currency crises for two periods a January 19 96-June 19 97 January 19 96-December 19 97 Experienced Experienced Country Rank ... turns into a crisis and when banking crises end. For example, by our criteria, banking distress in Indonesia and Mexico really began in 19 92 (and not in 19 97 and 19 94, respectiv...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20