Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets by Luisa Anderloni, Maria Debora Braga and Emanuele Maria Carluccio 10 pptx

... parametric and semi-parametric models, and models that have and do not have closed-form solutions. The typology appears in Table 2.1. Both linear and polynomial models have closed-form solutions for ... β>0. 3 GARCH stands for generalized autoregresssive conditional heteroskedasticity, and was introduced by Bollerslev (1986, 1987) and Engle (1982). Engle received the Nobe...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... particular point forecasts. Granger and Jeon (2002) have suggested “thick modeling” as a strategy for neural net- works, particularly for forecasting. The idea is simple and straightforward. We should ... with Evolutionary Computation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100 0 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 x1=randn (100 0,1) y1=...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... residuals. By all other criteria, the linear 140 5. Estimating and Forecasting with Artificial Data 0 200 400 600 800 100 0 0 20 40 60 0 200 400 600 800 100 0 80 90 100 110 120 0 200 400 600 800 100 0 90 100 110 120 0 ... Estimating and Forecasting with Artificial Data 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Network Linear FIGURE 5.13. Out-of-sample predictio...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... process. We specify four lags for the dependent variable. For quarterly data, this is equivalent to a 12-month lag for monthly data, used by Stock and Watson (1999) for forecasting inflation. To make ... draw upon the standard Phillips curve framework used by Stock and Watson (1999) for forecasting inflation in the United States. They define the inflation as an h-period ahead fo...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... is between 5 and 10% for most of the banks in the sample. The distribution appears in Figure 8.2. 8.2.2 In-Sample Performance Table 8.6 gives information about the in-sample performance of the alternative ... an Application to Forecasting Inflation,” IEEE Transactions in Neural Networks 12: 674–683. Chow, Gregory (1960), “Statistical Demand Functions for Automobiles and Their Use for...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... requirements, 102 103 implementation strategy, 109 – 110 in-sample criteria, 85–94 interpretive criteria, 104 108 MATLAB programming code for, 93–94, 107 108 out-of-sample criteria, 94 103 significance ... ratings, 53 bootstrapping methods for assessing significance, 108 for in-sample bias, 101 102 for out-of-sample performance, 202, 204 0.632 bootstrap test, 101 102 , 202, 2...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... bond market for confirmation. A bullish technical forecast for bonds is also a bullish technical forecast for stocks. Conversely, a bearish analysis for bonds is a bearish forecast for stocks. ... market and falling commodity markets, the spring and early summer saw surging commodity markets and a weak bond market. This surge in the CRB Index was caused mainly by strong g...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... 1955, before computers were so common, the RAND Corporation published a book entitled A Million Random Digits. It was used in selecting random trials for experimental designs and simulations (and ... prices that can be forecast based on a given information set. The only possible changes in price are random, driven by unforecastable external information. Profits occur only by chance....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20