New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets 7 doc

... way: x ∗ k,t = x k,t − min(x k ) max(x k ) −min(x k ) (3.13) The linear scaling function for [−1, 1], transforming a variable x k into x ∗∗ k , has the following form: x ∗∗ k,t =2· x k,t − min(x k ) max(x k ) −min(x k ) − ... Similarly, do changes in GDP have one process in recession and another in recovery? These are very important questions for forecasting and policy analysis,...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2.8, bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... Test for Nonlinear Patterns Brock, Deckert, and Scheinkman (19 87) , further elaborated in Brock, Deckert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996), propose a test for detecting nonlinear...

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... estimation an expanding window. The sample size, of course, becomes larger as we move forward in time. An alternative to the expanding window is the moving window. In this case, for the first forecast ... to interpretations that make sense in terms of economic theory and give us insights into policy or better information for decision making? The goal of computational and empirica...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... and modify the network models used for estimation and forecasting performance against the linear model. I invite the reader to continue these experiments with artificial data. 120 5. Estimating ... enter into a forward contract on foreign exchange markets. While preventing loss due to a collapse of sterling, the forward contract also prevents any gain due to an appreciation of sterling...

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... fall in bank lending, or does the collapse of bank lending lead to a fall in land prices? 176 7. In ation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan interval (in this case we are forecasting for one year ... Table 7. 8 gives strong support for abandoning a linear approach for understanding in ation/deflation dynamics in Japan. 7. 2.4 Out-of-Sample Performance Figure 7. 17 gives...

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... corresponding center for the network model is between 7. 2 and 7. 3%. The network model’s performance clearly indicates that it should be the preferred method for predicting individual banking crises. 8.2.4 ... coefficients and nonlinear functions for extracting one component, brought in the next observation, and applied these coefficients and functions for estimating the n...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... or forecast well sharp turning points in data. For this reason, we turn to nonlinear forecasting techniques. 2.2 GARCH Nonlinear Models Obviously, there are many types of nonlinear functional forms ... the input vector and the center of that unit, whereas the MLP or feedforward network computes the inner products of the inputs and the weights for that unit. Mandic and Chambers (...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... They call this forecast a thick model fore- cast. We can also use this method for obtaining intervals for our forecasts of the network. Granger and Jeon have pointed out an intriguing result from ... point for quite some time during the training period. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for avoiding the problems of local minima in nonlinear estimation. There are only strate...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20