New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets 7 doc
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_2 ppt
... way:
x
∗
k,t
=
x
k,t
− min(x
k
)
max(x
k
) −min(x
k
)
(3.13)
The linear scaling function for [−1, 1], transforming a variable x
k
into
x
∗∗
k
, has the following form:
x
∗∗
k,t
=2·
x
k,t
− min(x
k
)
max(x
k
) −min(x
k
)
− ... Similarly, do changes in GDP have one process in recession and
another in recovery? These are very important questions for forecasting
and policy analysis,...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_3 doc
... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but
from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2.8,
bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... Test for Nonlinear
Patterns
Brock, Deckert, and Scheinkman (19 87) , further elaborated in Brock,
Deckert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996), propose a test for detecting
nonlinear...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_4 pptx
... estimation an expanding window. The sample size, of
course, becomes larger as we move forward in time.
An alternative to the expanding window is the moving window. In this
case, for the first forecast ... to
interpretations that make sense in terms of economic theory and give us
insights into policy or better information for decision making? The goal
of computational and empirica...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_5 doc
... and modify the
network models used for estimation and forecasting performance against
the linear model. I invite the reader to continue these experiments with
artificial data.
120 5. Estimating ... enter into a forward contract on foreign exchange markets. While
preventing loss due to a collapse of sterling, the forward contract also prevents any gain
due to an appreciation of sterling...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_7 doc
... fall in bank lending, or does the collapse of bank
lending lead to a fall in land prices?
176 7. In ation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan
interval (in this case we are forecasting for one year ... Table 7. 8 gives strong support for abandoning a
linear approach for understanding in ation/deflation dynamics in Japan.
7. 2.4 Out-of-Sample Performance
Figure 7. 17 gives...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_8 pptx
... corresponding
center for the network model is between 7. 2 and 7. 3%. The network model’s
performance clearly indicates that it should be the preferred method for
predicting individual banking crises.
8.2.4 ... coefficients and
nonlinear functions for extracting one component, brought in the next
observation, and applied these coefficients and functions for estimating the
n...
Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets by Luisa Anderloni, Maria Debora Braga and Emanuele Maria Carluccio_1 docx
... or forecast well sharp turning points in data. For
this reason, we turn to nonlinear forecasting techniques.
2.2 GARCH Nonlinear Models
Obviously, there are many types of nonlinear functional forms ... the input vector and the center of that unit,
whereas the MLP or feedforward network computes the inner products
of the inputs and the weights for that unit.
Mandic and Chambers (...
Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets by Luisa Anderloni, Maria Debora Braga and Emanuele Maria Carluccio_3 pot
... They call this forecast a thick model fore-
cast. We can also use this method for obtaining intervals for our forecasts
of the network.
Granger and Jeon have pointed out an intriguing result from ... point for
quite some time during the training period.
Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for avoiding the problems of local
minima in nonlinear estimation. There are only strate...