New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets 3 doc

... way: x ∗ k,t = x k,t − min(x k ) max(x k ) −min(x k ) (3. 13) The linear scaling function for [−1, 1], transforming a variable x k into x ∗∗ k , has the following form: x ∗∗ k,t =2· x k,t − min(x k ) max(x k ) −min(x k ) − ... Similarly, do changes in GDP have one process in recession and another in recovery? These are very important questions for forecasting and policy analys...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2.8, bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... Test for Nonlinear Patterns Brock, Deckert, and Scheinkman (1987), further elaborated in Brock, Deckert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996), propose a test for detecting nonlinear pa...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... estimation an expanding window. The sample size, of course, becomes larger as we move forward in time. An alternative to the expanding window is the moving window. In this case, for the first forecast ... differencing for obtaining derivatives, and bootstrapping for obtaining significance, in turn. 4 .3. 1 Analytic Derivatives One may compute the analytic derivatives of the output...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... forecast onevar scmodel new1 .m (for the stochastic 132 5. Estimating and Forecasting with Artificial Data 0 50 100 150 200 250 30 0 35 0 400 450 500 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6 8 0 50 100 150 200 250 30 0 35 0 ... option. This formula has been extended to cover American 134 5. Estimating and Forecasting with Artificial Data 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Network Li...

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... forthcoming. Chen, Racine, and Swanson (2001) have used a ridgelet neural network for forecasting in ation in the United States. McNelis and McAdam (2004) used a thick model approach (combining ... lending appears as an important credit channel for assessing in ationary or deflationary impulses. Gerlach and Peng (20 03) examined the interaction between banking credit and prop...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 0.591 0.500 0.428 0 .37 2 0 .30 0 0. 239 Skewness 1.122 1.214 1.2 23 1.191 1.092 0.952 Kurtosis 2.867 3. 114 3. 186 3. 156 3. 0 23 2. 831 Max 66.000 59.000 50.000 44 .30 0 37 .200 31 .700 Min 10.600 12.000 12.500 ... Var 0.4516 0 .38 88 0 .33 448 0.2927 0.246 0.216 Skewness 0.487 0.590 0.582 0. 536 0.404 0.584 Kurtosis 2.064 2. 235 2 .30 2 2.242 2 .33 8 3. 5 53 Max 60.500 53. 300...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... or forecast well sharp turning points in data. For this reason, we turn to nonlinear forecasting techniques. 2.2 GARCH Nonlinear Models Obviously, there are many types of nonlinear functional forms ... the input vector and the center of that unit, whereas the MLP or feedforward network computes the inner products of the inputs and the weights for that unit. Mandic and Chambers (...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... They call this forecast a thick model fore- cast. We can also use this method for obtaining intervals for our forecasts of the network. Granger and Jeon have pointed out an intriguing result from ... point for quite some time during the training period. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for avoiding the problems of local minima in nonlinear estimation. There are only strate...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20