Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting By Chris Brooks 8 ppt

... Tokyo 200 120 100 80 60 60 40 20 0 −20 −40 −60 40 20 0 1Q93 1971 1974 1977 1 980 1 983 1 986 1 989 1992 1995 19 98 2001 2004 2007 1Q96 1Q99 1Q02 3Q03 3Q06 1Q05 3Q94 3Q97 3Q00 0 1Q 78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q 88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q 98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Figure ... correction and we would divide by N rather than N − 1. 68 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1,200 1...

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... by ˆ β and adding ˆα will 84 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 20 (yoy %) Actual Fitted (%) 15 10 5 0 1979 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 1979 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 −5 −10 −15 −20 (a) ... and White, 2002). Employment in business and finance is a proxy for business conditions...

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... section 5.9 – i.e. the true DGP is represented by y t = β 1 + β 2 x 2t + β 3 x 3t + β 4 x 4t + u t (5.50) 1 28 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 5 .8. 2 Determining the number of restrictions, ... in particular by means of the tests we discuss in the next chapter and the evaluation of forecast performance in later chapters. On the basis of the 1 18 Real Estate Model...

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... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 1 980 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1 983 1 986 1 989 1992 1995 19 98 2001 2004 2007 1 980 1 983 1 986 1 989 1992 1995 19 98 2001 2004 2007...

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... (0.00) Adj. R 2 0.59 0.44 0 .80 0.57 0.51 0.72 DW 1 .81 2. 08 1 .82 1 .82 2.12 2.01 RSS 1, 383 .86 992.91 209 .81 1,460.02 904 .87 289 .66 Sample 1 982 –2007 1 982 –94 1995–2007 1 981 –2007 1 981 –94 1995–2007 T 26 13 ... B Fitted Actual Fitted 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 1 982 1 984 1 986 1 988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19 98 2000 2002 2004 2006 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1...

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... −0 .85 OFSg t 3 .83 3 .87 4. 28 4.72 4 .88 (b) Data VAC VAC OFSg 2002 6.3 2003 14 .8 5.7 0.056 2004 18. 2 3.4 0.6 18 2005 18. 3 0.1 0 .89 3 2006 18. 1 −0.2 2.3 78 2007 15 .8 2.593 (c) Forecasts Forecasts by model Actual rent ... −12.37 76.21 2006 −4.24 −23.12 18. 88 18. 88 356.39 17. 98 534.45 −12.37 66.10 2007 3. 48 −17.56 21.04 21.04 442.55 12.11 3 08. 24 −12.37 251.22 Sum of...

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... 1 58 1 58 2Q04 0.69 −1.17 6.0 5.7 117 294 124 130 3Q04 0.96 0.07 5.7 4 .8 202 293 1 48 1 18 4Q04 0. 78 1.17 5.7 4.0 42 247 44 83 1Q05 0.23 2.02 5.1 3.6 186 185 62 90 2Q05 −0.07 2. 28 4.6 3.1 98 151 86 4 3Q05 ... 0. 98 1Q04 −2.19 80 ,047 90,271 6.5 20 ,88 0 1 58 19,524 253 1.53 2Q04 −1.17 79,111 90,403 5.7 21,010 130 19 ,81 8 294 1.96 3Q04 0.07 79,1 68 90,459 4 .8 21,1 28 1 18...

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... β 1 x t + u 1t (12.51) 386 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting the equation cancels. Model (12.45) has no long-run solution and it therefore has nothing to say about whether x and y have an equilibrium ... order): 63.57 (p = 0.00); heteroscedasticity with cross-terms: 18. 48 (p = 0.00); RESET: 4.12 (p = 0.04). 372 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting and the tre...

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... 589 .8 96.2 6.9 731.4 75.3 67.3 2000 743 114.2 650.6 98. 2 7.6 80 6.6 84 .7 74.2 2001 685 113.5 603.5 97.6 7.0 7 48. 2 78. 1 68. 8 2002 600 114.0 526.3 98. 0 6.1 652.7 68. 4 60.0 2003 537 114 .8 467 .8 98. 7 ... prices 1 nominal real 1991 87 7 100.0 87 7.0 86 .0 10.2 1, 087 .1 100.0 100.0 1992 720 101.7 7 08. 0 87 .5 8. 2 87 7.2 82 .1 80 .7 1993 6 28 104.3 602.1 89 .7 7.0 746...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... Tokyo 200 120 100 80 60 60 40 20 0 −20 −40 −60 40 20 0 1Q93 1971 1974 1977 1 980 1 983 1 986 1 989 1992 1995 19 98 2001 2004 2007 1Q96 1Q99 1Q02 3Q03 3Q06 1Q05 3Q94 3Q97 3Q00 0 1Q 78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q 88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q 98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Figure 3 .8 Series ... variate can be scaled to have zero mean and unit variance by subtracting its mean and dividing by...

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