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... APPLYING THE RIGHT MINDSET TO INVESTING IN REAL ESTATE As professionals in the real estate markets, we have worked with thousands of real estate investors and businesspeople, and we know that there ... buying US real estate today, wisely.” — Hunter Milborne, chairman (ret.) and partner, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada “Anyone thinking about making an investment into US real estate will ... Association of Realtors: www.realtor.org ã CoreLogic: www.corelogic.com ã US Census Bureau: www.census.gov ã US Bureau of Labor Statistics: www.bls.gov ã Federal Reserve reports by district:...

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Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... =−ln(y). 12 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1.8 Econometrics in real estate, finance and economics: similarities and differences The tools that we use when econometrics is applied to real estate ... little importance. The real price series is obtained by taking the nominal series, dividing it by the price deflator index and multiplying by 100 (under the assumption that the deflator has a base value of 100): real ... they are observed). In general, measurement error affects most real estate series; data revisions can be less serious in the real estate context compared with economics, however. Financial data...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... have zero mean and unit variance by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. 74 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 4.3 Regression versus correlation All readers will be ... relation- ship can be described by an equation that can be estimated using a defined procedure. It is possible to use the general equation for a straight line, y = α + βx (4.1) Real estate analysis: statistical ... between the types of series represented by panels (a) and (b) (which show the index of US income returns for all real estate in nominal terms and the index of real office values in Tokyo, respectively)...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... there are two researchers working indepen- dently, each with a separate real estate theory for explaining the variation in some variable, y t . The respective models selected by the researchers could be y t = ... observations on y by ten! 124 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Trying many variables in a regression without basing the selection of the candidate variables on a real estate or economic ... of a regression model. This chapter contin- ues the discussion of model adequacy by examining diagnostic tests that will help the real estate analyst to determine how reliable the model is and to...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... we use model A, a 1 per cent rise in OFSg t will on average push real rent growth up by 4.55 per cent, whereas, according to model B, it would rise by 5.16 per cent. One may ask what the real ... by 1 per cent, it will push real rent growth down by 0.74 per cent in the same year. The interpretation of the coefficient on VAC t−1 is less straightforward. If the vacancy change declines by ... estimates are provided by a property consultancy. The same source computes effective real rents by discounting cash flows with a real interest rate. Hendershott makes the following adjustment. He discounts...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... either to use just three dummy variables plus the intercept or to use the four dummy variables with no intercept. 258 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting (models that include exogenous variables). ... model pushes the forecast in 3Q downwards, which then tends to bounce back in the following quarter. 8.11 Studies using ARMA models in real estate In the real estate literature, ARMA models are used ... in three regions – the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – and the focus is on securitised real estate returns. We now briefly discuss how time series models are employed in these studies. Tse...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... previous chapters, we focused on diagnostic tests that the real estate analyst can compute to choose between alternative models. Once a model or competing models have been selected, we really ... forecast combination in real estate, the reader is also referred to the paper by Wilson and Okunev (2001), who combine nega- tively correlated forecasts for securitised real estate returns in the ... call is close and the sample is small. This is illustrated by just a slight gain of 4 per cent (on the C-measure) from using RM2 over the consensus forecasts. It is evident, however, that the performance...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... new industrial space, industrial rents, construction costs, the availability of industrial floor space and macro- economic variables. The supply of new industrial space, industrial real estate ... continuously); and (3) the higher output/floor space ratio caused by technological advances. Finally, figure 10.3 illustrates the cycles of the availability of industrial floor space (measured in thousands ... π 22 EMP t + ε 2t (10.24) 324 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting used is a moving average of annualised percentage changes in the GDP defla- tor. Because of implausibly negative real interest rates during...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... between the types of series represented by panels (a) and (b) (which show the index of US income returns for all real estate in nominal terms and the index of real office values in Tokyo, respectively) ... relation- ship can be described by an equation that can be estimated using a defined procedure. It is possible to use the general equation for a straight line, y = α + βx (4.1) Real estate analysis: statistical ... prevalent in real estate. For time series data, it is usual to denote the individual observation numbers using the index t and the total number of observations available for analysis by T. For cross-sectional...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... estimated using OLS by setting z t = 1 x t and regressing y on a constant and z. Clearly, then, a surprisingly var- ied array of models can be estimated using OLS by making suitable 102 Real Estate ... the test is modified, the conclusion must be that there is no conclusion one way or the other! It is also worth noting that, if a given null hypothesis is rejected using a 1 per cent significance ... authors using UK office rent series from a number of real estate consultancies. The employment series is that for finance and business services published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Assume...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... there are two researchers working indepen- dently, each with a separate real estate theory for explaining the variation in some variable, y t . The respective models selected by the researchers could be y t = ... x 1 .So,whereis x 1 ? In fact, it is the constant term, usually represented by a column of ones of length T : x 1 = ⎡ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎣ 1 1 . . . 1 ⎤ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦ (5.3) 112 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting How are the ... calculated, though? Previously, to estimate the variance of the errors, σ 2 ,anestima- tor denoted by s 2 was used: s 2 =  ˆ u 2 t T − 2 (5.9) The denominator of (5.9) is given by T − 2, which is the...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... econometric model in real estate through two detailed examples. The regression analysis topics of chapters 4 to 6 are fundamental to conduct- ing empirical research in real estate. Given the importance ... Essentially, the method works by using higher-order terms of the fitted values (e.g. ˆ y 2 t , ˆ y 3 t , etc.) in an auxiliary regression. The auxiliary regression is thus one in 186 Real Estate Modelling ... sensible way to proceed is by introducing dummy variables to the model only if there is both a statistical need to do so and a theoretical justification for their inclusion. This justification would normally...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20