Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting By Chris Brooks 7 pdf

... line, y = α + βx (4.1) Real estate analysis: statistical tools 69 25 20 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 47 931 139 185 231 277 323 369 415 461 5 07 558 599 645 691 73 7 78 3 829 875 921 9 67 1013 Figure 3.9 Sample ... 2.6 19 97 5.3 7. 1 3.4 4 .7 1998 6.2 10.1 4.0 5.4 1999 10.4 9.5 4.9 5.6 2000 11.1 11 .7 5.3 5 .7 2001 11.3 5.4 5.8 7. 1 2002 4.0 5.6 6.2 7. 3 2003 2.6 5 .7 9.6 8.0 2004 −...

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... it by ˆ β and adding ˆα will 84 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 20 (yoy %) Actual Fitted (%) 15 10 5 0 1 979 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 2003 2005 1 979 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 2003 2005 −5 −10 −15 −20 (a) ... MacGregor and White, 2002). Employment in business and finance is a proxy for business conditi...

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... (1984–2006): ˆ RRg t =− 17. 68 + 2.45EFBSg t + 2 .71 GDPg t + 0 .79 OFBSg t (5.48) (6.35) (3 .76 ) (1.92) (0. 87) where OFBSg is the annual percentage growth in OFBS,R 2 = 0 .76 , adj. R 2 = 0 .72 , URSS = 619.46, ... in particular by means of the tests we discuss in the next chapter and the evaluation of forecast performance in later chapters. On the basis of the 118 Real Estate Mo...

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... 202 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 7. 3 Regression models for Frankfurt rents Model A (equation (7. 3)) Model B (equation (7. 4)) Coefficient t-ratio (p-value) ... of the RESET, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation tests. Equally, a small number of large outliers could cause non-normality and 172 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting is no relationship ....

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... below. ˆ y = 6. 176 7 +49.458 inflation R 2 = 0. 47 ˆ y = 4.1 572 +0.5691 long-term government bond R 2 = 0. 27 ˆ y = 5.5034 + 0.4612 short-term interest rates R 2 = 0 .76 ˆ y = 7. 91 97 +−0.1 176 rent R 2 = ... 0.44 0.80 0. 57 0.51 0 .72 DW 1.81 2.08 1.82 1.82 2.12 2.01 RSS 1,383.86 992.91 209.81 1,460.02 904. 87 289.66 Sample 1982–20 07 1982–94 1995–20 07 1981–20 07 1981–94 1995–2...

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... 3 97. 20 −12. 37 31.81 2004 −13.30 −16.06 2 .76 2 .76 7. 62 176 .89 2 57. 92 −12. 37 0.88 2005 −3.64 −9 .77 6.13 6.13 37. 58 13.25 95.45 −12. 37 76.21 2006 −4.24 4.21 −8.45 −8.45 71 .40 17. 98 17. 72 −12. 37 ... −18.01 −25.21 7. 20 7. 20 51.89 324.36 635 .72 −12. 37 31.81 2004 −13.30 −30. 07 16 .77 16 .77 281. 07 176 .89 903.91 −12. 37 0.86 2005 −3.64 −29.22 25.58 25.58 654.22 13....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 158 158 2Q04 0.69 −1. 17 6.0 5 .7 1 17 294 124 130 3Q04 0.96 0. 07 5 .7 4.8 202 293 148 118 4Q04 0 .78 1. 17 5 .7 4.0 42 2 47 44 83 1Q05 0.23 2.02 5.1 3.6 186 185 62 90 2Q05 −0. 07 2.28 4.6 3.1 98 151 ... 0.03 27 0.2126 0.0000 DIVY 0.5025 0.0000 0.6212 0.42 17 0.5654 0.4033 SPREAD 0. 277 9 0.1328 0.0000 0.4 372 0.6563 0.00 07 UNEM 0.3410 0.3026 0.1151 0.0000 0. 075 8 0. 276 5 UNIN...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... Forecast Dec. 06 −0.02 27 −0.0100 −0.0400 −0.0100 Jan. 07 0. 071 8 0.0200 0.2000 0.0800 Feb. 07 −0.0355 −0.00 67 0.0100 −0.0 579 −0.0400 0.0 976 −0.0100 0.0 470 Mar. 07 −0.0359 0.0030 0. 070 0 0.0186 −0.1600 ... 0.0800 Feb. 07 −0.0355 −0.00 67 0.0100 −0.0 579 −0.0400 −0.0100 0.0 470 Mar. 07 −0.0359 0.0065 0. 070 0 0.0084 −0.1600 −0.0900 −0.0580 Apr. 07 −0.00 57 −0.0030 −0.0500 −0....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... real 20 07 prices 1 nominal real 1991 877 100.0 877 .0 86.0 10.2 1,0 87. 1 100.0 100.0 1992 72 0 101 .7 708.0 87. 5 8.2 877 .2 82.1 80 .7 1993 628 104.3 602.1 89 .7 7.0 74 6.3 71 .6 68 .7 1994 699 1 07. 3 651.4 ... Hamlets 2,5 37 3,851 4,536 5,631 5,051 4 ,75 2 4,5 57 3,890 5,143 4,2 37 Wandsworth 7, 389 8,6 47 7 ,79 3 9 ,75 7 7, 693 8,1 87 8,485 6,935 8,156 7, 072 Westmi...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... variate can be scaled to have zero mean and unit variance by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. 74 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 4.3 Regression versus correlation All ... line, y = α + βx (4.1) Real estate analysis: statistical tools 69 25 20 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 47 931 139 185 231 277 323 369 415 461 5 07 558 599 645 691 73 7 78 3...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20