Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting By Chris Brooks 2 potx

... and Munich returns Original data Ordered data Frankfurt Munich Frankfurt Munich 19 92 4.9 2. 6 −3.7 2. 0 1993 5.8 −0.1 2. 5 −0.1 1994 3.4 2. 0 −0.7 2. 0 1995 −0.7 2. 0 0.8 2. 1 1996 2. 5 7.3 2. 6 2. 6 1997 ... 4.7 1998 6 .2 10.1 4.0 5.4 1999 10.4 9.5 4.9 5.6 20 00 11.1 11.7 5.3 5.7 20 01 11.3 5.4 5.8 7.1 20 02 4.0 5.6 6 .2 7.3 20 03 2. 6 5.7 9.6 8.0 20 04 −3.7 2. 1 9.9 9.5...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... s 2 x 2 2 +···+s 2 x 2 T  (4A .28 ) which can also be written var( ˆ β) = s 2   x 2 t  2  x 2 1 + x 2 2 +···+x 2 T  = s 2  x 2 t   x 2 t  2 (4A .29 ) An overview of regression analysis ... closest 92 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting x y 0 Figure 4.11 Effect on the standard errors of x 2 t large x y 0 Figure 4. 12 Effect on the standard...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... E   u t g t  2 =  g 2 t E  u 2 t  = s 2  g 2 t (4A.34) Writing (4A.34) out in full for g 2 t and expanding the brackets, var( ¯α) = s 2  T   x 2 t  2 − 2  x t   x 2 t   x t +   x 2 t   x t  2   T  x 2 t −   x t  2  2 (4A.35) This ... section 5.9 – i.e. the true DGP is represented by y t = β 1 + β 2 x 2t + β 3 x 3t + β 4 x 4t +...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 1980 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 1983 1986 1989 19 92 1995 1998 20 01 20 04 20 07 1980 1983 1986 1989 19 92 1995 1998 20 01 20 04 20 07 1980 1983...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 0.09 RESID t 2 – 0 .20 – 0.17 R 2 0.009 0.0 62 0.009 0.035 T 25 24 25 25 r 121 T −r 24 22 Computed test stat. χ 2 (r) χ 2 (1) = 0 .22 χ 2 (2) = 1.36 χ 2 (1) = 0 .23 χ 2 (2) = 0.81 Critical χ 2 (r) χ 2 (1) ... (0.40) VAC t−1 −3.13 2. 5 (0. 02) – – VAC t –– 2. 06 2. 9 (0.01) OFSg t 3.71 3 .2 (0.01) 3.83 2. 6 (0. 02) Adjusted R 2 0.53 0.57 DW statistic 1.94 1.91...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... −F Naive 20 03 −18.01 25 .21 7 .20 7 .20 51.89 324 .36 635. 72 − 12. 37 31.81 20 04 −13.30 −30.07 16.77 16.77 28 1.07 176.89 903.91 − 12. 37 0.86 20 05 −3.64 29 .22 25 .58 25 .58 654 .22 13 .25 853.68 − 12. 37 76 .21 20 06 ... equations wouldhavegiventhesameanswer. 27 6 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 9 .2 Data and forecasts for rent growth in Frankfurt Sampl...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 21 ,21 2 83 20 ,359 24 7 1.47 1Q05 2. 02 81,705 90,563 3.6 21 ,3 02 90 20 ,543 185 0.81 2Q05 2. 28 83,568 90,499 3.1 21 ,366 64 20 ,694 151 0.45 3Q05 2. 46 85, 625 90,564 2. 7 21 ,415 49 20 ,8 32 138 0. 32 4Q05 2. 59 ... 0.65 4Q06 2. 64 98, 027 90,481 1.1 21 ,897 155 21 ,650 167 0. 62 1Q07 2. 23 100 ,20 9 90,485 1.1 22 ,058 161 21 ,811 161 0.56 2Q07 1.80 1 02, 0 12 9...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... forecasting methodology outlined in box 11.1). Assuming 394 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 50 40 30 20 10 0 2Q90 2Q93 2Q96 2Q99 2Q 02 2Q05 4Q91 4Q94 4Q97 4Q00 4Q03 4Q06 2Q90 2Q93 2Q96 2Q99 2Q 02 2Q05 4Q91 4Q94 4Q97 4Q00 4Q03 4Q06 −10 20 −30 (a) ... −0.0 025 −0.0036 −0.0040 −0.0058 ARPRET t−1 0.0548 −0.9 120 0.0985 −0.3003 ARPRET t 2 0.0543 0 .28 25 −0 .21 92 −0.3176...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... two and five. 26 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 2. 2 Property sales by district 1996 1997 1998 1999 20 00 20 01 20 02 2003 20 04 20 05 Camden 3,877 4,340 3,793 4 ,21 8 3,6 42 3,765 3,9 32 3, 121 ... 3,9 32 3, 121 3,689 3 ,28 3 City of London 28 8 329 440 558 437 379 374 468 307 29 9 Hackney 2, 221 2, 968 3,107 3 ,26 6 2, 840 3 ,25 2 3,570 2, 711 3,16...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... Munich 19 92 4.9 2. 6 −3.7 2. 0 1993 5.8 −0.1 2. 5 −0.1 1994 3.4 2. 0 −0.7 2. 0 1995 −0.7 2. 0 0.8 2. 1 1996 2. 5 7.3 2. 6 2. 6 1997 5.3 7.1 3.4 4.7 1998 6 .2 10.1 4.0 5.4 1999 10.4 9.5 4.9 5.6 20 00 11.1 ... 11.7 5.3 5.7 20 01 11.3 5.4 5.8 7.1 20 02 4.0 5.6 6 .2 7.3 20 03 2. 6 5.7 9.6 8.0 20 04 −3.7 2. 1 9.9 9.5 20 05 0.8 4.7 10.4 10.1 20 06 9.6 8.0 11.1 11.7 20 07 9.9 13...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20