Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Hardcover 15 docx

... increasingly in real estate modelling; ● formats that forecasting can take for broader purposes; and ● the need to combine top-down with bottom-up forecasting. Real estate modelling and forecasting ... K., and Yang, H. (2005) Long-term co-memories and short-run adjustment: secu- ritized real estate and stock markets, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Econ...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... building in real estate 5 1.5 What do we model and forecast in real estate? 6 1.6 Model categorisation for real estate forecasting 8 1.7 Why real estate forecasting? 9 1.8 Econometrics in real estate, ... techniques to real data and problems in real estate. 2 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1.1 Motivation for this book The complexity of the real...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... have zero mean and unit variance by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. 54 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting coefficient, is often denoted ρ x,y , and is calculated ... independent random series, the statistical 68 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 (a) Index of US income returns (c) All-property risk premium (b)...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... modelled. 76 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting ● There are bound to be random outside influences on y that, again, cannot be modelled. For example, natural disasters could affect real estate performance ... of significance and confidence interval approaches, test the hypothesis that β = 1 (that is, an exactly proportionate impact of 82 Real Estate Modelling and Forec...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... plausible; ● be consistent with underlying real estate theory, including satisfying any relevant parameter restrictions; 172 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting is no relationship between the ... 1; at the second step, obser- vations 1 to k +2 are used; and so on; at the final step, observations 1 to T 196 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting There is also an argum...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... office tenant demand, the ratio of government employment over the sum of the financial, insurance and real estate and service office tenants and the level of occupied stock. McGough and Tsolacos (2002), ... course of the previous year; 234 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting so that the roots are z = 1,z = 2/3 and z = 2. Only one of these lies out- side the unit circle,...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... in real estate In the real estate literature, ARMA models are used mainly for short-term forecasting and to provide a benchmark by which to judge structural models 264 Real Estate Modelling and ... relatively slowly, and this is exactly what is observed here in figure 8.3. Again, as expected for an AR(1), only the first pacf 250 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasti...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... regression to be close to zero, since the explained and explanatory 384 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting international movements in capital in the real estate markets should lead to greater linkages ... characterise the non-stationarity: the random walk model with drift, y t = µ + y t−1 + u t (12.1) 376 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 30 25 20 15 10 5 0...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... (FCGDP). GDP is expected to have an influence on the demand for commercial space. Since commercial real estate prices 400 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting The test for cointegration between the ... relationships between commercial real estate prices, real estate stock prices, gross domestic product in financial and business services and commerce, interest rates a...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... measurement error and revi- sions (e.g. absorption data are subject to stock and vacancy rate revisions 42 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Box 3.1 Time series data in real estate Series Frequency Rents ... comparison of real and nominal rents is given in figure 2.1. Interestingly, office rents in real terms in Singapore recovered to their 1991 level only in 2007. 1...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20