6.2 C ONSIDERATIONS FOR U RBAN P LANNING
6.2.5 Building Perceptions and Promoting Participation in the Vulnerability Reduction
The results of the case study in Padang show a significant influence of cognitive factors influencing the intention to conduct reactive (evacuation after a warning) and proactive (support and participation in the improvement of evacuation infrastructures) action. Even though the cognitive model used in the data analysis was not able to fully explain the intention – let alone the actual behaviour – in the case study of Padang, it conforms to some extent with the underlying theories.
Firstly, the behavioural intentions (Sub‐chapters 5.5.1 and 5.5.2) correspond to the attitude towards behaviour and the subjective norms for that behaviour which are described in the “Theory of Reasoned Action/Planned Behaviour” and “Protection Motivation Theory”. In the case of Padang, the high level of basic knowledge about precursors of a tsunami indicates in the first place that the people are aware of the potential tsunami occurrence or received information about tsunamis, which was communicated through various public media and awareness raising activities in Padang. Further, significant correlations were proven between the intention to evacuate and socio‐psychological cognitive factors such as the perceived impact of a tsunami (personal concerns about tsunami impacts), perceived vulnerability (recognition of lack of preparedness as one cause of tsunami harm), perceived efficacy of evacuation (on‐going discussions about early warning and evacuation in the community), and individual efficacy (own knowledge of where to find high buildings and high grounds, as well as perceived own capability to evacuate). The correlations of some factors with socio‐economic characteristics, especially education level, household income, gender, and age group, show that different social groups may have different concerns or level of interest towards various
141
themes of tsunami and its preparedness, and therefore may require different approaches. With regard to the intention to support the on‐going efforts to improve evacuation infrastructure and facilities, further knowledge related with early warning and evacuation also plays a significant role.
Based on descriptive analysis and qualitative data (Sub‐chapters 5.5.3, 5.5.4, and 5.5.5), the issues of embedding tsunami risks in the overall risk landscape of the people, concerns of securing livelihoods related with particular measures, cultural and belief systems, and promoting the reliability of the current tsunami early warning system were also outlined. In order to further incorporate the cognitive factors into the development of risk communication strategies, following recommendations were derived, related in particular with clear warning messages as well as with building perceptions of existing tsunami risks conducive to undertake actions related with evacuation measures.
Recommendation 14: Provision of clear and understandable messages and recommendation of evacuation actions consistent with the information given during socialization and evacuation drills.
Most people in Padang have been exposed to information about tsunamis and early warning provided by the public media and raising awareness activities. People were informed about potential major earthquakes that can generate major tsunamis. This may have triggered their anticipation of a forthcoming significant threat. Information whether there is tsunami potential is with no doubt expected by the people following any strong earthquake events, a message that was also conveyed by the existing early warning system. However, this was not yet fully understandable and there was varying interpretations of signs like strong earthquake characteristics preceding tsunamis (e.g. there was also strong earthquake as in 2009 did not trigger tsunami). Also, the interpretation the warning message of “tsunami potential” as an urgency to immediately evacuate still varied from case to case.
Besides, information such as earthquake profiles does not say much to the people. Specific information with regard to the conduct of evacuation (evacuation route, places, signs, emergency plan, etc.) and about long‐term measures to reduce vulnerability and enhancing evacuation capability (improvement of infrastructures, reduction of exposure, etc.) is necessary. The study indicated that specific information about tsunami early warning, evacuation and the corresponding measures were still scattered and not fully clear to all the people at the receiving end.
Clear information and city‐wide socialization should be conducted continuously accompanying the establishment of early warning detection and dissemination technology. This has to take place in an institutionalized way, meaning that clear Standard Operational Procedures (SOPs) should be developed by the city taking into consideration local wisdom and existing informal arrangements at the household level. Additionally, any follow‐up measures, such as construction of new structures for vertical evacuation shelters etc. have to be socialized and be consistent with the information given about the early warning system and existing evacuation plan and SOPs.
Recommendation 15: Acknowledge the limited available knowledge about tsunamis, but emphasize that risk exists and may have impacts on the people if no preparedness actions were taken, thus, participation of all people in preparedness efforts is necessary.
142
It was evident that the people were generally concerned about earthquake and tsunamis and that the level of concern about tsunami plays a role in their intention to evacuate and the acceptance that vulnerability reduction to tsunamis is necessary. Witnessing the devastating impact of the tsunami 2004 on the neighbouring region of Aceh through the public media and experiences of strong earthquakes in Padang have given people an intrusive picture of what might happen in case of a potential tsunami. This has been a triggering factor for concern about tsunami risk among the people in the area. However, a major tsunami is a rare and extreme event and has never been experienced by the current generation. There is still limited local knowledge about the hazard characteristics, occurrence of the potential extreme event, and appropriate protective actions, a fact that brings about elements of uncertainty. The development of a tsunami hazard and evacuation map for the city underwent a long process and the map has not yet fully communicated to the wide community.
There were still different opinions on how to define safe places. This is also shown by the existing knowledge gap about recommended evacuation places. However, it is basically accepted that low‐
lying areas along the coast are potentially affected and preparedness action has to be conducted there. It is important that all people living in the low‐lying coastal areas be aware of the existing risk and of the importance of participating in the preparedness efforts to increase their capacity to face such an extreme event.
Recommendation 16: Link the potential tsunami event and necessary preparedness with cultural values and belief systems and involve community religious leaders.
How the people perceive the tsunami potential also determines how they deal with it. This perception is also related with the existing cultural norms and beliefs with the question of whether they consider a threat as a “given” or as an occurrence one can do something about. Most of the people associate extreme natural events with God´s will or as a consequence of people´s deeds. This may be interpreted in such a way that there is nothing that they can do to avoid it or that they will be protected by their good deeds in general. However, it was also evident in the case of Padang that the linkage of preparedness activities and cultural and religious values has opened up the people to accept the on‐going efforts positively and participate actively. Cooperation with and capacity building of the community leaders is crucial to promote the awareness that protective actions are needed and tied to their cultural and religious values. Discussions about the necessary preparedness actions should be triggered at the community level with the support of community and religious leaders. The role of local media, such as local radio, television, and newspaper should be promoted.
Recommendation 17: Provide clear information about options to prepare, support the on-going efforts and plans of the city government, and enhance the confidence of the people that such actions are “doable”.
The acknowledgement of existing risk and necessary preparedness also has to be followed up with information about “doable” options so that people prepare themselves and support the preparedness efforts conducted by the city government. Socialization of the existing facilities provided by the city government is also necessary to bridge the existing knowledge gap and to inform the people that the city government is also supporting them. Lack of supporting facilities and
143
infrastructures to foster response capability may also lead to the people´s perceived lack of capability to conduct evacuation. It is very important to inform the people on the various on‐going efforts undertaken by the city in order to improve people´s response capability.
Recommendation 18: Recognize and address the existing daily concerns and risks (other than tsunami risk).
Although the people are aware of tsunamis, this concern has to compete with their other daily pressures. Concern about livelihoods and income security was perceived by people, particularly the lower income classes, as a real daily issue they need to address first before discussing much about tsunami preparedness. Embedding the issue of tsunamis in the people´s risk landscape is not an easy task. Thus, the communication of existing tsunami risk should be conducted continuously and be linked with their daily activities. For example, raising awareness of where the safe places are from their home, workplaces, or school, the development of a family emergency plan in case of strong earthquakes and potential tsunamis, are some examples that can be linked with people´s daily activities. Moreover, different preparedness options may be needed for different social groups the same as incentive mechanisms that can partly compensate for the costs emerging from preparedness activities for the people at lower socio‐economic levels. Involvement of people in the planning process (next recommendation 6) would also give them a chance to address their concerns and feel acknowledged.
Recommendation 19: Involve the people in the planning process to synergize community-based with government efforts and provide a forum to address people´s concerns.
At the moment, efforts are also occurring both at the planning and community level. Any conflicting arrangements at both levels may also cause ineffectiveness during the evacuation planning and conduction. Thus, participation of the community in the planning processes is crucial. It was proven in the case study of Padang that a community with high awareness would also be likely to cooperate and would even be willing to engage in community‐level efforts.