During conducting the research, we encountered several limitations. Firstly, data limitation and transparency remains the biggest barrier which was mentioned in the beginning. We must recognize that we only modeled a small percent of short-haul cargo market due to lack of service from CM and import cargo flows have not been modelled. We question the difference in port choice model.
This study did not identify small shippers and big shippers who will have bargain power to negotiate port charge and ocean freight.
Data observation for both logit models was collected in one month which might not reflect big changes from carrier’s decision on schedules or tariff rates. Hence, these models could not be well fit with actual data. This data limitation keeps us from trying more sophisticated models such as the nested logit. Also, with only two port alternatives it was not viable to estimate parameters, hence, the port- carrier alliance alternatives have been used. But, it is difficult to quantitatively conclude whether port or carriers will influence more on shippers’ decision making.
The second limitation involves shortcomings of the chosen model itself as a representation of the real world decisions. In chapter 6, we indirectly include factors with the port facilities specific variables in a choice model, but we could not represent the variation among individual shipments.
We expect to determine our port investment could increase market share. Our results suggest that ports cannot always influence the characteristics affecting shippers’ decision. Nowadays, technologies deployed at terminals are highly transferable and easily transferable due to the sharing of customers. Hence, a port’s advantage might result from external factors, including good hinterland connectivity connection and hinterland population.
A number research questions require further research. We emphasize that our research focused on the assumption that the assignment of vessels to ports is fixed. Our model result in chapter 6 and 7 showed that frequency of sailing is more significant than vessel capacity in short-term decision.
Why do carriers not sail the smallest vessels as frequently as possible? Carriers must exploit scale economies of vessel size in order to remain cost competitive. Henceforth, ports must be able to accommodate larger vessels if they wish to compete. Our model of short-term shipment assignment does not explain economic viability of ports in a fixed situation. We could combine this model with an analysis of vessel assignment to represent the competition faced by ports, both today and in the future. Last but not least, more understanding and comprehensive studies about transport sectors in ASEAN member States are desirable for both policy makers, industrial service providers and service-end users.
116
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