Distinguishing Capital Flow by Country

Một phần của tài liệu From trade surplus to the dispute over the exchange rate quantitative analysis of RMB appreciation (Trang 63 - 72)

Chapter 2. On Trade Surplus from Property Rights 35

2.4 Distinguishing Capital Flow by Country

A total of 17 major trade partners of China, including the U.S. and South Korea, are selected as the research subjects (Table 2.5).

M i=1

N j=1

OCAij M i=1

N j=1

AdjEXPij = M

i=1

N j=1

NCAij

(M = 1, . . . ,17, N = 1, . . . ,8), (1) where OCAij is the current account balance between China and its trade partners in 2007; AdjEXPij is the shares belonging to foreign

4Because of the different input and output coefficients of the domestic- and foreign- invested enterprises, we will estimate the added values created by domestic- and foreign- invested enterprises as well as the influence on employment with different input–output tables in the succeeding step of the research.

On Trade Surplus from Property Rights 47

investment after considering the property ownership in export com- modities; i represents 17 countries; andj represents eight manufac- turing sectors.

OCAij= 2 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 4

4945 3632 65511 19515 4423 326 68398 53127

7684 982 22986 7157 2076 3323 52518 1620

6 27 620 1193 574 1389 3564 0

279 5023 41243 14274 1975 11663 6126 1

172 969 22696 3861 2813 17448 23308 0

173 3652 1365 1279 434 457 6531 55 806 39909 119655 96338 1229 61929 243351 9563

3928 1121 12493 1101 1527 13911 26142 112

4.1 3724 20590 2785 1026 2193 31085 128

79469 2609 19866 5583 2302 30200 63311 7831

101 423 2940 968 437 2429 1689 0

1037 27 10227 3500 227 2433 15172 0

5709 5771 222302 31557 16801 33961 786394 2270

37.7 1421 36950 8493 3022 705 103313 511 3751 2547 18640 11120 2250 14862 186942 36

1680 2420 20148 3737 3897 12348 46045 1 2285 10993 22402 143693 6610 35299 262922 10507 3 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 5

17×8

AdjEXPij = 2 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 4

0.01 3.94 70.5 11.7 19.1 3.00 68.4 0 1.61 21.4 112.2 52.5 10.5 50.78 212.4 0 0.00 0.04 1.59 0.21 0.17 0.10 0.15 0 0.31 80.9 1394.9 296.3 171.1 476.7 4558.5 0 0.42 3.65 114.0 62.4 23.2 201.7 59.5 0 0.01 0.79 5.06 0.54 0.10 0.21 11.2 0 78.1 2696.9 11126.2 4181.6 615.4 3493.6 17887.4 11.7

0.14 1.58 2.99 9.35 2.53 37.5 240.6 0.01 0.33 33.9 63.9 133.6 18.2 29.4 373.3 1.69 2.54 34.9 110.1 48.7 18.1 18.0 473.7 0.29 0.01 0.53 3.89 4.05 2.22 0.89 0.62 0 0.00 1.25 17.7 20.5 0.13 0.74 1.08 0 133.7 2085.4 10952.7 11139.5 1154.2 4629.2 41778.3 196.9

1.97 127.6 776.3 611.2 97.1 117.8 1258.3 0.25 0.93 39.9 73.9 271.1 9.36 257.6 322.5 0.14 0.50 3.72 7.11 7.42 6.08 7.24 27.9 0 20.9 203.5 1208.8 1059.1 123.8 2566.9 3052.9 13.4

3 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 5

17×8

N CAij= 2 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 4

4945 3636 65440 19526 4404 329 68330 53127

7686 1004 22874 7210 2066 3374 52306 1620

6 27 619 1193 575 1389 3564 0

279 4942 39848 14570 1804 12139 10684 1

173 965 22582 3798 2790 17246 23249 0

173 3653 1360 1278 434 457 6520 55 727 37212 108529 100520 614 65423 261238 9551

3928 1119 12490 1091 1525 13873 25902 112

5 3758 20526 2919 1008 2222 30712 126

79471 2644 19756 5535 2284 30219 62838 7832

101 423 2936 972 434 2430 1688 0

1037 29 10209 3520 227 2433 15173 0

5842 3685 211350 20417 15647 29332 744616 2073

40 1293 36174 7882 2925 587 102055 512 3751 2507 18566 10849 2241 14605 186619 36

1681 2416 20141 3729 2891 12341 46017 1 2264 10790 21193 144752 6486 32732 265975 10493 3 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 5

17×8

48 From Trade Surplus to the Dispute over the Exchange Rate

For example, OCA13 = 65,511, indicating that China’s trade sur- plus against Russia (i= 1) in the light industry was 65,511 (million

$); AdjEXP13 = 70.5, indicating that 70.5 (million $) in China’s light industrial exports to Russia belonged to Russian companies; NCA13

= 65,440, indicating China’s actual volume of light industrial exports to Russia after deducting the part whose property rights belonged to Russian companies in its light industrial exports to Russia.

If an adjustment is made by the manufacturing department, AdjEXPj =αji×EXPi, (2) where AdjEXPj is the amount (million $) whose ownership belongs to foreign investment in the exports of department j;αjiis the prop- erty rights adjustment coefficient of country i in departmentj; and EXPi is China’s total manufacturing exports to country i.





0.00 0.99 0.04 0.31 0.10 0.03 2.42 0.03 0.25 1.01 0.09 0.05 0.48 0.06 0.88 0.15 0.11 4.14 0.07 1.31 0.89 0.06 0.06 0.20 0.08 1.74 0.21 0.08 4.40 0.01 0.15 0.29 0.04 0.06 0.39 0.03 0.91 0.36 0.02 4.17 0.05 0.96 0.27 0.14 0.27 0.30 0.12 2.57 0.43 0.01 4.00 0.09 0.69 0.46 0.24 0.02 0.48 0.05 4.44 0.69 0.03 9.18 0.17 1.26 0.23 0.10 0.06 0.21 0.00 1.33 0.06 0.10 3.52 0.43 0.27 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.17 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.97 0.09 0.00 0.12 4.87 1.10 0.01 0.51 0.42 1.30 5.66 3.05 0.63 0.08 1.04 0.09 2.61 1.15 0.22 0.02 1.65 0.75 6.30 2.40 0.99 0.05 1.97 0.09 3.62 1.84 0.24 0.09 0.88 0.49 7.40 1.28 1.25 0.04 2.24 0.01 2.63 0.62 0.10 0.03 1.23 0.00 6.36 1.72 0.28 0.00 0.08





×

















173821 121234 3069079829 135167 13552 631088 82350 128681 114152 28683 21959 1475917 199454 264512 105699 360637

















=





5340242 26042 17910 118912271 70327 2245





On Trade Surplus from Property Rights 49

If an adjustment is made by the country to which the foreign invest- ment belongs,

AdjEXPi =αij×EXPj, (3) where AdjEXPi is the amount (million $) belonging to countryi in China’s export value to country i after adjustment;αij is the prop- erty rights adjustment coefficient of the foreign-invested country jin department i; andEXPj is the total exports of China’s manufactur- ing departmentj.

















0.00 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.27 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.99 0.48 0.20 0.39 0.30 0.48 0.21 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.88 1.74 0.91 2.57 4.44 1.33 0.17 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.36 0.43 0.69 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.00 2.42 4.14 4.40 4.17 4.00 9.18 3.52 0.09 0.03 0.07 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.43 0.01 0.25 1.31 0.15 0.96 0.69 1.26 0.27 0.97 1.01 0.89 0.29 0.27 0.46 0.23 0.44 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.14 0.24 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.12 1.30 0.09 0.75 0.09 0.49 0.01 0.00 4.87 5.66 2.61 6.30 3.62 7.40 2.63 6.36 1.10 3.05 1.15 2.40 1.84 1.28 0.62 1.72 0.01 0.63 0.22 0.99 0.24 1.25 0.10 0.28 0.51 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.42 1.04 1.65 1.97 0.88 2.24 1.23 0.08

















×





241.53 5340.09 26041.89 17907.78 2271.21 11891.25 70326.91 224.49





=

















176.72 461.33 6978.762.26 464.92 17.87 40090.76 294.76 654.33 706.38 12.21 41.46 72070.15 2990.36 975.44 59.98 8249.49

















Table 2.6 presents the data of the part whose ownership belonged to foreign investment in China’s manufacturing exports in 2007.

In China’s total manufacturing exports in 2007, the part belonging to foreign investment after the adjustment according to ownership was $146.282 billion. That is, the property rights of approximately 12.65% of the property rights of the manufacturing exports did not belong to China. Furthermore, the property rights of nearly $134.247 billion of the export value belonged to 17 other coun- tries, including the U.S., the United Kingdom, Japan, France, and Italy.

Table 2.7 adjusts the trade surpluses of eight manufacturing departments against 17 major trade partners according to the prop- erty right relations.

FromTradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate9inx6inb2268-ch02page50

TradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate

and smelting

and tobacco

Light industry

Petrochemical industry

Building materials

common machinery

rolling and

processing Energy

Russia 0.5 394.1 7054.4 1166.9 1913.8 300.4 6841.8 0.0

Canada 161.2 2139.3 11219.7 5247.9 1045.3 5077.9 21241.6 0.0

Austria 0.2 4.1 159.5 21.1 16.7 9.6 14.9 0.0

Germany 30.5 8095.7 139489.5 29633.9 17104.9 47668.5 455853.0 0.2

Italy 41.9 365.4 11404.2 6244.2 2317.4 20169.3 5949.3 0.0

New Zealand 0.9 78.8 505.7 54.2 10.0 20.6 1116.6 0.0

Japan 7808.9 269690.8 1112617.8 418154.8 61534.8 349360.0 1788738.5 1170.0

Belgium 14.3 158.5 299.3 935.2 253.4 3750.6 24063.3 1.2

France 32.7 3388.3 6394.5 13363.5 1818.9 2937.0 37329.2 168.7

Australia 253.7 3498.0 11008.0 4866.9 1809.9 1802.4 47369.8 29.0

Sweden 1.4 53.5 388.5 404.6 221.9 89.1 62.3 0.0

Switzerland 0.1 124.8 1771.4 2054.2 12.7 74.5 108.4 0.0

The U.S. 13370.0 208543.3 1095272.7 1113952.5 115423.0 462917.3 4177833.9 19699.2

The UK 196.9 12754.7 77624.8 61121.7 9709.8 11777.8 125826.0 24.6

The Netherlands 92.9 3995.6 7387.5 27107.1 936.4 25757.1 32253.1 14.0

Spain 50.5 371.6 711.0 742.4 608.0 723.9 2791.0 0.0

South Korea 2096.0 20352.2 120880.4 105906.5 12383.9 256689.1 305298.6 1342.6 Total export

adjustment volume of different departments

24152.7 534008.6 2604188.9 1790977.6 227120.7 1189125.3 7032691.3 22449.5

Adjustment of the total exports: 13424714

Source: Trade data are taken from WITS-COMTRADE Database, and the property rights proportions of the different countries are from Entrepreneur Directory 2010.

FromTradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate9inx6inb2268-ch02page51

OnTradeSurplusfromPropertyRights51

M N

Mine selecting

and smelting

Food, alcohol,

and tobacco

Light industry

Petrochemical industry

Building materials

Special and common machinery

Iron, steel, and

metal rolling and pro-

cessing Energy Russia Original value 4945.1 3631.6 65510.9 19514.8 4422.9 326.3 68398.0 53127.0

After adjustment 4945.1 3635.6 65440.3 19526.4 4403.8 329.3 68329.6 53127.0

Adjustment 0.0 3.9 70.5 11.7 19.1 3.0 68.4 0.0

Canada Original value 7684.3 982.4 22985.7 7157.4 2076.2 3322.8 52518.2 1620.1 After adjustment 7686.0 1003.7 22873.5 7209.9 2065.8 3373.6 52305.8 1620.1

Adjustment 1.6 21.4 112.2 52.5 10.5 50.8 212.4 0.0

Austria Original value 5.9 27.4 620.2 1192.6 574.3 1388.7 3563.6 0.0 After adjustment 5.9 27.4 618.6 1192.8 574.5 1388.8 3563.7 0.0

Adjustment 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0

Germany Original value 278.6 5023.4 41242.6 14273.5 1974.6 11662.7 6125.8 0.7 After adjustment 278.9 4942.4 39847.7 14569.9 1803.5 12139.3 10684.3 0.7 Adjustment 0.3 81.0 1394.9 296.3 171.1 476.7 4558.5 0.0 Italy Original Value 172.1 968.7 22696.1 3860.7 2812.7 17447.6 23308.2 0.1 After adjustment 172.5 965.1 22582.0 3798.2 2789.6 17245.9 23248.7 0.1

Adjustment 0.4 3.7 114.0 62.4 23.2 201.7 59.5 0.0

(Continued)

FromTradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate9inx6inb2268-ch02page52

TradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate

M N

Mine selecting

and smelting

Food, alcohol,

and tobacco

Light industry

Petrochemical industry

Building materials

Special and common machinery

steel, and metal rolling and pro-

cessing Energy New Zealand Original Value 173.4 3652.2 1364.6 1278.7 434.3 456.9 6531.2 55.1

After adjustment 173.4 3652.9 1359.5 1278.2 434.2 456.7 6520.0 55.1

Adjustment 0.0 0.8 5.1 0.5 0.1 0.2 11.2 0.0

Japan Original Value 805.5 39909.3 119654.8 96338.3 1229.3 61929.1 243350.6 9562.6 After adjustment 727.4 37212.4 108528.6 100519.8 614.0 65422.7 261237.9 9550.9

Adjustment 78.1 2696.9 11126.2 4181.6 615.4 3493.6 17887.4 11.7

Belgium Original Value 3928.2 1120.7 12492.6 1100.7 1527.4 13910.6 26142.2 111.8 After adjustment 3928.3 1119.1 12489.6 1091.4 1524.9 13873.1 25901.6 111.8

Adjustment 0.1 1.6 3.0 9.4 2.5 37.5 240.6 0.0

France Original Value 4.1 3723.9 20590.3 2784.9 1025.9 2192.8 31085.1 127.6 After adjustment 4.5 3757.8 20526.3 2918.5 1007.7 2222.1 30711.8 126.0

Adjustment 0.3 33.9 63.9 133.6 18.2 29.4 373.3 1.7

Australia Original value 79468.9 2608.6 19866.0 5583.4 2302.1 30200.4 63311.4 7831.4 After adjustment 79471.4 2643.6 19755.9 5534.8 2284.0 30218.5 62837.7 7831.7

Adjustment 2.5 35.0 110.1 48.7 18.1 18.0 473.7 0.3

Sweden Original value 101.1 423.2 2939.9 968.1 436.5 2428.9 1689.0 0.2 After adjustment 101.1 422.7 2936.0 972.1 434.2 2429.7 1688.4 0.2

Adjustment 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.0

FromTradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate9inx6inb2268-ch02page53

OnTradeSurplusfromPropertyRights53

Switzerland Original value 1037.2 27.3 10226.9 3499.9 226.7 2432.5 15172.1 0.0 After

adjustment 1037.2 28.5 10209.2 3520.4 226.9 2433.2 15173.2 0.0

Adjustment 0.0 1.3 17.7 20.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.0

The U.S. Original value 5708.7 5770.5 222302.2 31556.8 16801.4 33961.1 786394.2 2269.7 After

adjustment 5842.4 3685.1 211349.5 20417.3 15647.2 29332.0 744615.9 2072.7 Adjustment 133.7 2085.4 10952.7 11139.5 1154.2 4629.2 41778.3 197.0 The UK Original value 37.7 1420.9 36950.1 8493.1 3022.4 704.5 103312.7 511.2

After

adjustment 39.7 1293.4 36173.9 7881.9 2925.3 586.7 102054.5 511.5 Adjustment 2.0 127.6 776.3 611.2 97.1 117.8 1258.3 0.3 The Netherlands Original Value 3751.4 2546.9 18640.1 11119.8 2249.9 14862.4 186941.9 36.1

After

adjustment 3750.5 2507.0 18566.2 10848.7 2240.5 14604.8 186619.4 36.0 Adjustment 0.9 40.0 73.9 271.1 9.4 257.6 322.5 0.1 Spain Original Value 1680.2 2419.5 20148.4 3736.5 3896.9 12348.2 46044.8 0.5

After

adjustment 1680.7 2415.8 20141.3 3729.1 3890.8 12341.0 46016.9 0.5

Adjustment 0.5 3.7 7.1 7.4 6.1 7.2 27.9 0.0

(Continued)

FromTradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate9inx6inb2268-ch02page54

TradeSurplustotheDisputeovertheExchangeRate

M N

Mine selecting

and smelting

Food, alcohol,

and tobacco

Light industry

Petrochemical industry

Building materials

Special and common machinery

Iron, steel, and

metal rolling and pro-

cessing Energy South Korea Original value 2284.7 10993.3 22402.0 143693.1 6610.0 35298.8 262922.1 10506.8

After

adjustment 2263.7 10789.8 21193.2 144752.2 6486.1 32731.9 265975.1 10493.4 Adjustment 21.0 203.5 1208.8 1059.1 123.8 2566.9 3053.0 13.4 The surpluses

of different

departments Original value 98383.9 55943.2 660633.3 222692.6 50021.4 13105.9 864542.940528.8 After

adjustment 98625.5 50603.1 634591.4 240602.4 47750.2 1214.6 794216.040753.3 Adjustment 241.5 5340.1 26041.9 17909.8 2271.2 11891.3 70326.9 224.5 Total adjustment amount of the

foreign trade surpluses of

different departments 1342.5

Definition of Indicator: Original value = original exports — original imports; the trade surplus data after adjustment = (original exports* the proportions of different foreign investments) — original imports; adjustment amount = adjusted value-original value; the foreign trade surpluses of different departments = the sum of the adjusted surplus values of eight departments

Source: WITS-COMTRADE database.

On Trade Surplus from Property Rights 55

Một phần của tài liệu From trade surplus to the dispute over the exchange rate quantitative analysis of RMB appreciation (Trang 63 - 72)

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