A study on the impact of the current global economic and financial crisis on workers‘ remittances flow either to any of the individual SSA countries or SSA as a group is suggested. Such study should address the role of motives for remitting in sustaining remittances flow during periods of global economic or financial crisis. This however is subject to availability of the most recent data on workers‘ remittances.
There is the need to investigate further the determinants of workers‘
remittances flow to SSA at the micro level. Such study should also account for the motives for remitting that are peculiar to SSA countries from the perspective of the remitter as well as the recipient. This suggestion is in view of the finding suggesting that only those remittances recipients that are able to demonstrate adequate capacity to manage current receipts satisfactorily can guarantee future flows.
144
A study on the expenditure pattern of remittances flow to individual SSA countries will be a most important and interesting study. It is therefore suggested that a study dedicated to this subject and based on a field survey at both individual and household level be conducted in future researches. This study should necessarily shed more light and additional insights on the developmental roles and potentials of remittances receipts in SSA at the micro level.
A study on labour force growth, labour productivity and remittance flows in any specific SSA country is suggested. This of course will be at the micro level and should further explore the finding suggesting that labour force growth contribute positively to economic growth perhaps through workers‘ remittances.
A study that sheds more light on the poverty reducing role or potential of workers‘ remittances to SSA is suggested. Analytical tool involving the use of a poverty transition matrix for the affected community is highly recommended. What this means is that the research should be conducted within the framework of a household survey.
A future research on the developmental impact of workers‘ remittances to SSA countries is suggested and such study should specifically cover other indicators of growth and development such as health, investment in human capital, housing, etc.
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161 APPENDIX 1: Two-Step System GMM Dynamic Panel Data Estimation (YGR)
Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(3) = 1.20 Prob > chi2 = 0.753 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(1) = 0.05 Prob > chi2 = 0.830 GMM instruments for levels
Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets:
(Robust, but can be weakened by many instruments.)
Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(4) = 1.25 Prob > chi2 = 0.870 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.)
Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(4) = 0.86 Prob > chi2 = 0.930 Arellano-Bond test for AR(3) in first differences: z = -1.23 Pr > z = 0.220 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.82 Pr > z = 0.411 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.60 Pr > z = 0.009 DL.(ygr L.ygr wr) collapsed
GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) ll lk inv inf reer yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8
_cons Standard
Instruments for levels equation L2.(ygr L.ygr wr) collapsed
GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(ll lk inv inf reer yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8)
Standard
Instruments for first differences equation
_cons 14.29186 5.746709 2.49 0.023 2.218477 26.36525 yr7 .9251511 .5866291 1.58 0.132 -.307311 2.157613 yr6 -.2591498 .7781206 -0.33 0.743 -1.893921 1.375621 yr5 .440047 .862063 0.51 0.616 -1.37108 2.251174 yr4 -.5167044 .6135131 -0.84 0.411 -1.805648 .7722387 yr3 -.6190384 .9749005 -0.63 0.533 -2.667228 1.429152 yr2 -.1041676 1.272746 -0.08 0.936 -2.778109 2.569773 wr -.0011254 .0013628 -0.83 0.420 -.0039885 .0017377 inv .0014758 .0006263 2.36 0.030 .00016 .0027916 inf -.1077338 .0369841 -2.91 0.009 -.1854345 -.0300331 reer .0002908 .0013007 0.22 0.826 -.0024419 .0030234 lk -1.870935 .9835047 -1.90 0.073 -3.937202 .1953315 ll .7479525 .1994866 3.75 0.001 .3288467 1.167058 L1. .2652887 .0640402 4.14 0.001 .1307452 .3998322 ygr
ygr Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Corrected
Prob > F = 0.000 max = 7 F(13, 18) = 158.89 avg = 7.00 Number of instruments = 18 Obs per group: min = 7 Time variable : year Number of groups = 19 Group variable: countryid Number of obs = 133 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM
Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative.
Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation.
Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular.
yr8 dropped due to collinearity yr1 dropped due to collinearity
Favoring space over speed. To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor speed, perm.
> (both)) iv( ll lk inv inf reer yr*) small robust artests(3) twostep
. xtabond2 ygr l.ygr ll lk reer inf inv wr yr*, gmm(ygr l.ygr wr, lag(2 2) collapse equation
162 APPENDIX 2: Correlation Coefficients for the Two-Step System GMM Dynamic Panel
Data Estimation (YGR)
yr8 . -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 1.0000 yr7 . -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 1.0000
yr6 . -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 1.0000 yr5 . -0.1667 -0.1667 -0.1667 1.0000
yr4 . -0.1667 -0.1667 1.0000 yr3 . -0.1667 1.0000
yr2 . 1.0000 yr1 .
yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8 yr8 0.0011 0.1283 0.0239 0.1882 -0.1928 0.0092 0.2595 0.2099 yr7 0.0247 0.0210 0.0156 0.1145 0.0070 0.0849 0.1042 0.1095 yr6 0.0274 0.0436 0.0079 0.0748 0.0074 0.0275 0.0503 0.0378 yr5 -0.0348 -0.0186 0.0001 0.0163 0.0061 -0.0252 -0.0082 -0.0077 yr4 -0.0056 -0.0411 -0.0078 -0.0657 0.0233 -0.0872 -0.0895 -0.0822 yr3 -0.0084 0.0153 -0.0159 -0.1519 0.0674 0.0482 -0.1592 -0.1198 yr2 -0.0044 -0.1485 -0.0238 -0.1762 0.0816 -0.0574 -0.1572 -0.1475 yr1 . . . . wr 0.0108 0.1135 0.3662 0.4227 -0.1362 -0.1257 0.4120 1.0000 inv -0.0661 0.1004 0.4077 0.8616 -0.2448 0.0124 1.0000
inf 0.0323 -0.0941 0.1537 -0.0137 -0.1631 1.0000 reer -0.0282 -0.0287 0.0620 -0.1640 1.0000
lk -0.0540 0.0257 0.5340 1.0000 ll -0.0387 0.0966 1.0000
L1. 0.0734 1.0000 ygr
resid 1.0000
resid ygr ll lk reer inf inv wr L.
(obs=133)
. correlate resid l.ygr ll lk reer inf inv wr yr*