Most ASEAN members are low-income countries, so attracting FDI is one of the key policies of these countries as well as a common strategic objective of ASEAN. This dissertation focuses on some concerns of the policymakers in these countries, namely the change in the level of export concentration and the determinants of trade and FDI in ASEAN. By the empirical results introduced in Chapters 2 to 4, we review briefly some of the main findings.
In Chapter 2, we calculate and use the Theil index and its components to show the change in ASEAN export concentration. First, the ASEAN export concentration decreased over time, and the within-group component contributed more to the total concentration. Second, by separating the whole sample into several sets of subgroups, we find that with the absolute Theil indices, the export concentration across countries in either the high-income or the non-high-income subgroup, was quite stable and the gap in import value from ASEAN between the two subgroups was small. We also find that the high-income countries played a key role in the volatility of the level of the ASEAN export concentration in Africa. However, in America, the non-high-income group played a more important role. The empirical results also show that the export concentration among the ASEAN members was decreasing gradually during the sample period.
In Chapter 3, we examine the spatial effects of FDI and trade on FDI inflow to the ASEAN countries by applying SDM and DSDM. The negative impacts of FDI inflow and the positive impact of export in the neighbor country on ASEAN’s FDI are confirmed. These effects are also confirmed inversely for the one-period lagged variables.
In Chapter 4, we investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the ASEAN export by applying the DID method. The results confirm the significant negative impacts of COVID-19 on the ASEAN
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export and show the significant impacts from both supply and demand sides. The increase in the number of new confirmed cases in the ASEAN countries as well as in the number of deaths in the ASEAN partners lowers the export value.
This dissertation attempts to fill the gap in the literature related to ASEAN trade and the relationship between trade and FDI. However, the dissertation still has some limitations. First, the methodology used in Chapter 2 focuses on how to measure the Theil indices and how to trace the export concentration level by using this index and its decomposition. This study does not offer in- depth analysis to point out the factors that cause the changes in the level of ASEAN export concentration. In the forthcoming research, I will try to improve the paper by applying a suitable model to figure out the determinants of the ASEAN export concentration. Second, in Chapter 4, we can see the different results when we deal with the aggregated level data and country-level data.
Although the significant results for the whole sample that combines data from ten ASEAN members are found, for each individual country, the significant impacts are only shown in a few countries. Some results in Table 4.6 showing the positive impacts for the individual country might be explained by unobserved factors. In the forthcoming research, I will try to figure out other variables like lock-down policy in each country to have a clear explanation for this.
Regarding further research, based on this dissertation, I may consider the new topics noteworthy in the area of ASEAN international trade. In reality, international trade is more complicated, not only exporting the final products abroad. Traditional international trade accounts for approximately 30% of all trade in goods and services compared with the new approach, namely global value chains (GVCs) that account for 70%. It involves complex interactions among a variety of domestic and foreign suppliers when exporting from one country to another country. So, applying the GVCs approach might provide more insightful results.
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APPENDIX
Share of population Share of GDP per capita Share of GDP
Figure A1 Comparison of different weights between two subgroups separated by income
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Between All Within
H-W NH-W
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Between All Within
H-W NH-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Between All Within
H-W NH-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H NH
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H NH
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H NH
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Share of population Share of GDP per capita Share of GDP
Figure A2 Comparison of different weights among four subgroups separated by regions
0 0.5 1 1.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between All
AP-W AF-W EU-W
AM-W
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between All
AP-W AF-W EU-W
AM-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between All
AP-W AF-W EU-W
AM-W
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AP AF EU AM
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AP AF EU AM
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AP AF EU AM
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Share of population Share of GDP per capita Share of GDP
Figure A3 Comparison of different weights among eight subgroups separated by regions and income
0 0.5 1 1.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between All
AP-L-W AP-H-W AF-L-W
AF-H-W EU-L-W EU-H-W
AM-L-W AM-H-W
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between All
AP-L-W AP-H-W AF-L-W
AF-H-W EU-L-W EU-H-W
AM-L-W AM-H-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between
All AP-L-W
AP-H-W AF-L-W
AF-H-W EU-L-W
EU-H-W AM-L-W
AM-H-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AP-L AP-H AF-L AF-H
EU-L EU-H AM-L AM-H
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AP-L AP-H AF-L AF-H
EU-L EU-H AM-L AM-H
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AP-L AP-H AF-L AF-H
EU-L EU-H AM-L AM-H
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Share of population Share of GDP per capita Share of GDP
Figure A4 Comparison of different weights between ASEAN and non-ASEAN subgroups
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between
All ASEAN-W
N-ASEAN-W
0 0.5 1 1.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between
All ASEAN-W
N-ASEAN-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Within Between
All ASEAN-W
N-ASEAN-W
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ASEAN Non-ASEAN
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ASEAN Non-ASEAN
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ASEAN Non-ASEAN
100
Figure A5 Decomposition among four subgroups separated by regions, excluding China
101
Figure A6 Decomposition among eight subgroups separated by regions and income, excluding China
102
Figure A7 Decomposition between ASEAN and non-ASEAN subgroups, excluding China
103
Table A1 ASEAN export value to different subgroups
Total ASEAN export value
High-income (54 countries)
Non-high-income (107 countries)
Asia and Pacific (40 countries)
Africa (55 countries)
Europe (35 countries)
America (31 countries)
2004 5.25×1011 3.45×1011 1.8×1011 3.55×1011 1.50×1010 6.34×1010 9.13×1010
2005 6.06×1011 3.9×1011 2.16×1011 4.13×1011 1.89×1010 6.94×1010 1.05×1011
2006 7.07×1011 4.45×1011 2.62×1011 4.81×1011 3.10×1010 8.25×1010 1.13×1011
2007 8.32×1011 5.12×1011 3.2×1011 5.53×1011 3.73×1010 1.14×1011 1.28×1011
2008 9.06×1011 5.36×1011 3.7×1011 6.4×1011 3.75×1010 1.00×1011 1.28×1011
2009 7.87×1011 4.68×1011 3.19×1011 5.39×1011 4.17×1010 1.00×1011 1.06×1011
2010 1.04×1012 6.09×1011 4.35×1011 7.3×1011 5.24×1010 1.28×1011 1.33×1011
2011 1.23×1012 6.92×1011 5.41×1011 8.75×1011 6.45×1010 1.45×1011 1.48×1011
2012 1.25×1012 7.01×1011 5.49×1011 8.92×1011 6.64×1010 1.4×1011 1.51×1011
2013 1.27×1012 6.98×1011 5.71×1011 9.06×1011 6.89×1010 1.36×1011 1.58×1011
2014 1.29×1012 7.23×1011 5.63×1011 9.05×1011 7.23×1010 1.43×1011 1.65×1011
2015 1.16×1012 6.61×1011 5.03×1011 7.99×1011 6.29×1010 1.38×1011 1.65×1011
2016 1.15×1012 6.6×1011 4.87×1011 7.76×1011 5.30×1010 1.49×1011 1.69×1011
2017 1.32×1012 7.38×1011 5.81×1011 9.04×1011 5.73×1010 1.73×1011 1.85×1011
2018 1.43×1012 7.95×1011 6.33×1011 9.92×1011 5.86×1010 1.73×1011 2.04×1011
Source: Author’s calculations
104
Table A2 List of economies by region
Asia and Pacific America Europe Africa
Afghanistan Papua New Guinea Antigua and Barbuda Bermuda (H) Albania Algeria Malta (H)
Australia (H) Philippines Argentina Canada (H) Austria (H) Angola Mauritania
Bangladesh Samoa Aruba (H) United states (H) Belarus Bahrain (H) Mauritius
Bhutan Singapore (H) Bahamas (H) Belgium (H) Benin Morocco
Brunei Darussalam (H) Solomon Islands Bolivia Bulgaria Cameroon Mozambique
Cambodia Sri Lanka Brazil Croatia (H) Cape-Verde Namibia
China Taiwan (H) Chile Cyprus (H) Chad Niger
Fiji Thailand Colombia Czech Republic(H) Comoros Nigeria
French Polynesia (H) Turkey Costa Rica Denmark (H) Congo Oman (H)
Hong Kong (H) Uzbekistan Cuba Estonia (H) Djibouti Qatar (H)
India Vanuatu Dominican Rep. Finland (H) Egypt Saudi Arabia (H)
Indonesia Vietnam Ecuador France (H) Ethiopia Senegal
Japan (H) El Salvador Georgia Gabon Seychelles
Kazakhstan Guatemala Germany (H) Ghana Sierra Leone
Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of Guyana Greece (H) Guinea Somalia
Korea, Republic of (H) Honduras Greenland (H) Guinea-Bissau South Africa
Lao PDR Jamaica Hungary (H) Iran, Islamic Rep. of Sudan
Macao (H) Mexico Iceland (H) Iraq Swaziland
Malaysia Nicaragua Ireland (H) Israel (H) Syrian Arab Republic
Maldives Panama Italy (H) Jordan Tanzania, United Rep.of
Marshall Islands Paraguay Europe Latvia Kenya Togo
Mongolia Peru Slovakia (H) Lithuania Kuwait (H) Tunisia
Myanmar Puerto Rico (H) Slovenia (H) Luxembourg (H) Lebanon Uganda
Nepal St Vincent and the Grenadines Spain (H) Netherlands (H) Liberia United Arab Emirates (H)
New Caledonia (H) Suriname Sweden (H) Norway (H) Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Yemen
New Zealand (H) Trinidad and Tobago (H) Switzerland (H) Poland (H) Madagascar Zambia
Northern Mariana Islands Uruguay Ukraine Portugal (H) Malawi Zimbabwe
Pakistan Venezuela United Kingdom (H) Russian Federation Mali
Source: WDI regional classification adjusted by continental classification