3.1. K tăqu ăhi uăch nh,ăki măđ nhămôăhìnhăt iătr măĐ ngăTơm
3.3.3. Kết qua mô phỏng dòng chảy của Mike -Nam
Từ k t qu b thông s tính toán c a mô hình MIKE-NAM và chu i d liệu v l ngăm a,ăb căh iăc a Tr măBaăĐ n từ nĕmă 1986-2005, sử d ng mô hình MIKE NAMătaăthuăđ c k t qu mô ph ngăl uăl ng dòng ch yăđ n h ch aăn c V c Tròn k t qu nh ăsau:
+ Kết quả dòng chuẩn từ 1986-2005:
Hình 3. 14: L u l ng trung bình l u v c h V c Tròn theo k ch b n n n c a giai đo n 1986-2005
Bảng . 15: L u l ng trung bình tháng lưu v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo k ch b n RCP4.5 Q(m3/s)
Giaiăđo n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986-2005 3.28 2.60 2.13 1.82 2.65 1.91 1.41 3.13 6.49 14.43 8.22 4.95
2016-2035 3.66 2.91 2.34 1.97 2.80 2.61 1.66 3.80 7.46 16.39 9.04 5.61
2046-2065 3.85 3.07 2.50 2.13 3.16 2.61 1.66 3.55 7.68 17.01 9.39 5.92
2080-2099 3.81 3.02 2.45 2.08 2.99 2.38 1.51 3.09 8.07 17.25 9.64 5.81
Bảng . 16: L u l ng trung bình tháng l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo k ch b n RCP8.5 Q(m3/s)
Giaiăđo n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986-2005 3.28 2.60 2.13 1.82 2.65 1.91 1.41 3.13 6.49 14.43 8.22 4.95
2016-2035 3.31 2.60 2.30 2.08 3.55 2.54 1.58 3.33 6.93 15.56 8.58 5.06
2046-2065 3.69 2.92 2.49 2.17 3.46 2.70 1.71 3.65 7.70 16.97 9.38 5.63
2080-2099 4.18 3.32 2.72 2.31 3.31 2.71 1.74 3.60 8.73 19.25 10.66 6.35
Bảng . 17: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn – giai đo n 1986-2005 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
1986 2.95 2.38 1.88 1.44 1.92 0.95 0.74 2.41 3.00 14.66 4.65 5.55 3.54 1.83 6.97 0.74 0.61 34.92 1987 3.16 3.15 2.05 1.89 1.23 1.21 0.72 9.70 6.73 5.50 9.81 3.02 4.02 2.89 6.27 0.72 0.57 167.28 1988 2.81 1.86 1.46 1.15 0.91 0.91 0.55 0.44 2.75 14.38 2.72 2.12 2.67 1.26 5.49 0.44 0.34 23.79 1989 1.74 1.31 1.40 1.17 4.82 3.21 2.82 7.88 3.90 25.51 11.79 6.28 5.99 3.04 11.87 1.17 0.74 106.37 1990 4.43 4.40 3.66 2.39 2.19 2.52 1.98 3.07 5.92 21.08 7.55 4.75 5.33 3.08 9.83 1.98 0.91 74.34 1991 3.92 2.77 2.15 1.68 1.80 1.04 0.82 5.20 3.43 35.26 10.09 9.24 6.45 2.42 14.51 0.82 0.64 73.78 1992 6.03 4.20 3.27 2.56 2.03 5.69 2.56 1.66 7.49 21.52 5.65 4.12 5.57 3.50 9.69 1.66 1.28 78.88 1993 3.06 2.43 1.91 1.52 1.16 0.91 1.08 1.37 4.81 18.84 4.27 4.76 3.84 1.68 8.17 0.91 0.51 42.88 1994 2.65 2.33 2.04 1.31 1.11 0.87 0.79 1.23 5.28 4.64 3.51 9.43 2.93 1.54 5.72 0.79 0.46 51.04 1995 2.47 1.94 1.75 1.22 2.78 0.96 0.75 2.87 8.30 22.88 11.80 5.97 5.31 1.84 12.24 0.75 0.54 81.58 1996 4.88 3.72 2.88 2.26 2.34 3.04 2.37 1.54 13.17 10.38 17.10 5.89 5.80 2.88 11.63 1.54 0.98 83.19 1997 4.64 3.34 2.58 2.89 1.96 1.67 1.05 1.06 15.24 13.16 4.85 3.27 4.64 2.40 9.13 1.05 0.71 166.89 1998 2.54 2.20 1.59 1.33 2.39 0.92 0.72 0.56 8.82 5.53 8.40 4.57 3.30 1.53 6.83 0.56 0.47 62.85 1999 3.37 2.12 1.80 1.57 4.12 1.28 1.00 0.81 2.72 21.66 13.71 6.03 5.01 2.01 11.03 0.81 0.59 32.81 2000 4.22 3.15 3.43 5.62 4.66 2.12 1.95 5.61 3.56 4.56 5.18 2.75 3.90 3.85 4.01 1.95 1.36 97.99 2001 1.63 1.29 1.25 0.81 4.51 1.07 0.84 6.17 5.92 15.78 16.20 6.99 5.21 2.20 11.22 0.81 0.68 76.71 2002 4.23 3.33 3.10 2.27 3.92 1.92 1.32 4.86 10.90 6.70 3.86 2.86 4.11 3.12 6.08 1.32 1.00 59.81 2003 1.89 1.69 1.70 0.96 0.77 0.59 0.54 0.44 4.19 7.03 3.88 3.51 2.27 1.07 4.65 0.44 0.31 41.20 2004 2.49 2.53 1.21 1.13 7.46 6.52 3.42 1.87 5.71 6.53 8.90 3.31 4.26 3.33 6.11 1.13 0.81 109.98 2005 2.41 1.88 1.48 1.16 0.99 0.72 2.09 3.93 8.00 12.98 10.43 4.58 4.22 1.83 9.00 0.72 0.52 91.18 QCĐ 3.28 2.60 2.13 1.82 2.65 1.91 1.41 3.13 6.49 14.43 8.22 4.95 4.42 2.36 8.52 1.01 0.70 77.87
Bảng . 18: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2016- 2035 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2016 1.04 0.56 0.31 0.24 0.22 7.81 1.40 1.13 8.02 22.82 9.08 4.31 4.74 1.59 11.06 0.22 0.00 162.54 2017 3.31 2.70 2.11 1.62 2.12 1.07 0.84 3.32 3.58 16.25 5.30 6.38 4.05 2.14 7.88 0.84 0.69 47.13 2018 3.68 3.68 2.33 2.12 1.41 1.50 0.84 12.20 8.59 5.58 11.11 3.45 4.71 3.47 7.18 0.84 0.68 202.26 2019 3.30 2.16 1.71 1.34 1.06 1.12 0.64 0.53 3.22 15.91 3.04 2.37 3.03 1.48 6.14 0.53 0.40 27.22 2020 1.98 1.46 1.57 1.29 4.95 3.96 3.63 9.81 4.66 28.15 13.19 7.14 6.82 3.58 13.28 1.29 0.82 131.32 2021 5.05 5.10 4.14 2.72 2.46 3.11 2.54 3.96 6.90 23.30 8.52 5.45 6.10 3.64 11.04 2.46 1.11 82.33 2022 4.56 3.19 2.46 1.91 2.01 1.20 0.93 6.82 4.10 38.84 11.27 10.46 7.31 2.88 16.17 0.93 0.73 96.22 2023 6.82 4.75 3.69 2.89 2.29 7.01 3.20 2.09 8.73 23.70 6.39 4.68 6.35 4.09 10.87 2.09 1.56 100.47 2024 3.48 2.76 2.15 1.72 1.31 1.02 1.41 1.81 5.62 20.78 4.86 5.50 4.37 1.96 9.19 1.02 0.60 48.19 2025 3.02 2.69 2.30 1.50 1.25 1.06 1.09 1.76 6.24 5.31 4.07 10.94 3.44 1.83 6.64 1.06 0.53 58.28 2026 2.93 2.26 2.02 1.41 2.98 1.08 0.86 3.80 9.66 25.05 12.96 6.75 5.98 2.17 13.60 0.86 0.62 90.53 2027 5.48 4.26 3.24 2.53 2.57 3.66 3.10 2.05 14.80 11.61 18.85 6.68 6.57 3.36 12.98 2.05 1.25 91.63 2028 5.27 3.83 2.91 3.18 2.18 1.99 1.19 1.38 16.97 14.50 5.45 3.68 5.21 2.74 10.15 1.19 0.84 183.42 2029 2.84 2.53 1.78 1.49 2.59 1.03 0.81 0.64 10.00 6.20 9.31 5.19 3.70 1.72 7.68 0.64 0.54 69.66 2030 3.92 2.42 2.02 1.75 4.32 1.39 1.13 0.86 3.21 24.13 14.89 6.72 5.56 2.23 12.24 0.86 0.65 38.44 2031 4.69 3.48 3.75 5.89 4.87 2.32 2.28 7.05 4.18 5.28 5.89 3.25 4.41 4.29 4.65 2.28 1.48 126.14 2032 1.93 1.53 1.45 0.95 4.69 1.19 0.92 7.86 6.80 17.46 17.84 7.95 5.88 2.57 12.51 0.92 0.79 77.75 2033 4.74 3.74 3.45 2.53 4.16 2.20 1.49 6.17 12.27 7.59 4.41 3.35 4.67 3.56 6.91 1.49 1.11 75.67
2034 2.19 1.97 1.91 1.11 0.88 0.68 0.67 0.57 4.90 7.89 4.43 4.06 2.61 1.25 5.32 0.57 0.36 47.63
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2035 2.93 3.04 1.42 1.30 7.66 7.74 4.25 2.26 6.65 7.39 9.95 3.79 4.86 3.83 6.94 1.30 0.95 111.01
QCĐ 3.66 2.91 2.34 1.97 2.80 2.61 1.66 3.80 7.46 16.39 9.04 5.61 5.02 2.72 9.62 1.17 0.78 93.39
Bảng . 19: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2046- 2065 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2046 1.09 0.61 0.32 0.25 0.24 7.13 1.28 1.02 8.25 23.63 9.41 4.44 4.81 1.49 11.43 0.24 0.00 147.90 2047 3.41 2.82 2.20 1.67 2.45 1.16 0.90 3.01 3.68 16.88 5.53 6.81 4.21 2.20 8.22 0.90 0.74 41.94 2048 3.93 3.98 2.52 2.32 1.54 1.55 0.89 11.23 8.74 5.65 11.47 3.49 4.78 3.50 7.34 0.89 0.72 187.32 2049 3.43 2.20 1.74 1.36 1.09 1.13 0.66 0.53 3.41 16.60 3.19 2.48 3.15 1.52 6.42 0.53 0.40 28.65 2050 2.11 1.53 1.74 1.47 5.79 3.89 3.46 9.12 4.63 29.10 13.63 7.41 6.99 3.64 13.69 1.47 0.92 120.78 2051 5.23 5.39 4.45 2.88 2.70 3.17 2.46 3.71 7.06 24.18 8.85 5.71 6.31 3.75 11.45 2.46 1.14 85.72 2052 4.84 3.36 2.58 2.00 2.24 1.27 0.99 6.22 4.16 40.24 11.69 11.06 7.55 2.94 16.79 0.99 0.78 86.57 2053 7.19 4.98 3.85 3.01 2.42 6.66 3.06 2.00 8.94 24.58 6.58 4.86 6.51 4.15 11.24 2.00 1.53 95.69 2054 3.61 2.86 2.24 1.80 1.35 1.06 1.33 1.67 5.75 21.59 5.06 5.85 4.51 1.99 9.56 1.06 0.60 49.71 2055 3.17 2.85 2.49 1.59 1.35 1.08 1.03 1.59 6.42 5.52 4.26 11.84 3.60 1.89 7.01 1.03 0.56 59.90 2056 3.15 2.41 2.20 1.51 3.47 1.21 0.95 3.54 10.00 25.98 13.45 7.12 6.25 2.30 14.14 0.95 0.69 93.91 2057 5.78 4.51 3.47 2.74 2.88 3.65 2.95 1.95 15.32 12.07 19.58 7.01 6.83 3.49 13.50 1.95 1.24 95.37 2058 5.55 4.04 3.04 3.51 2.41 2.05 1.27 1.35 17.61 15.08 5.70 3.90 5.46 2.90 10.57 1.27 0.87 191.17 2059 2.97 2.70 1.87 1.62 2.95 1.13 0.88 0.70 10.45 6.50 9.74 5.54 3.92 1.85 8.06 0.70 0.58 72.61 2060 4.23 2.59 2.23 1.93 5.03 1.57 1.27 0.97 3.46 25.20 15.53 7.14 5.93 2.48 12.83 0.97 0.74 40.80 2061 4.96 3.67 4.12 6.61 5.45 2.53 2.36 6.60 4.31 5.49 6.13 3.45 4.64 4.54 4.85 2.36 1.62 114.17
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2062 2.03 1.61 1.60 1.01 5.42 1.33 1.03 7.25 6.93 18.07 18.47 8.38 6.09 2.66 12.96 1.01 0.86 89.44 2063 4.91 3.87 3.67 2.69 4.70 2.32 1.60 5.74 12.56 7.85 4.55 3.52 4.83 3.69 7.12 1.60 1.21 68.42 2064 2.26 2.07 2.10 1.17 0.94 0.72 0.68 0.55 5.11 8.26 4.67 4.37 2.74 1.31 5.60 0.55 0.37 49.94 2065 3.20 3.33 1.53 1.47 8.75 7.51 4.12 2.27 6.91 7.70 10.37 3.97 5.10 4.02 7.24 1.47 1.05 125.56 QCĐ 3.85 3.07 2.50 2.13 3.16 2.61 1.66 3.55 7.68 17.01 9.39 5.92 5.21 2.82 10.00 1.22 0.83 92.28
Bảng . 20: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2080- 2099 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2080 1.04 0.56 0.31 0.24 0.22 6.10 1.10 0.86 14.52 18.73 9.68 4.48 4.82 1.30 11.85 0.22 0.00 125.88 2081 3.48 2.84 2.23 1.70 2.30 1.14 0.89 2.51 3.67 17.39 5.68 6.54 4.20 2.14 8.32 0.89 0.74 34.67 2082 3.80 3.77 2.43 2.22 1.48 1.39 0.85 9.80 8.73 5.60 11.71 3.46 4.60 3.22 7.37 0.85 0.69 166.25 2083 3.30 2.17 1.71 1.34 1.07 1.04 0.64 0.51 3.55 17.21 3.31 2.57 3.20 1.47 6.66 0.51 0.40 29.90 2084 2.13 1.58 1.71 1.42 5.37 3.40 2.95 7.94 4.36 30.69 13.88 7.30 6.89 3.31 14.06 1.42 0.91 105.66 2085 5.16 5.18 4.28 2.80 2.57 2.83 2.17 3.21 7.06 24.86 9.06 5.68 6.24 3.52 11.66 2.17 1.05 88.56 2086 4.73 3.33 2.57 1.99 2.14 1.25 0.98 5.33 4.11 41.42 12.01 10.80 7.55 2.79 17.08 0.98 0.77 73.20 2087 7.07 4.95 3.85 3.02 2.40 5.96 2.78 1.83 9.00 25.30 6.70 4.89 6.48 3.98 11.47 1.83 1.43 98.16 2088 3.63 2.89 2.26 1.81 1.37 1.07 1.21 1.46 5.80 22.30 5.23 5.72 4.56 1.96 9.76 1.07 0.60 50.76 2089 3.19 2.81 2.44 1.59 1.34 1.04 0.92 1.32 6.48 5.67 4.40 11.08 3.52 1.83 6.91 0.92 0.56 60.72 2090 3.01 2.32 2.09 1.45 3.19 1.14 0.89 3.01 10.14 26.72 13.81 7.07 6.24 2.14 14.44 0.89 0.64 96.56 2091 5.72 4.44 3.42 2.68 2.76 3.32 2.56 1.69 15.65 12.40 20.17 7.02 6.82 3.32 13.81 1.69 1.12 98.61 2092 5.53 4.03 3.07 3.40 2.34 1.94 1.25 1.22 18.08 15.54 5.88 3.93 5.52 2.85 10.86 1.22 0.84 198.13
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2093 3.04 2.68 1.91 1.61 2.79 1.11 0.87 0.68 10.76 6.72 10.09 5.44 3.97 1.83 8.25 0.68 0.57 75.16 2094 4.10 2.57 2.18 1.88 4.67 1.50 1.20 0.92 3.56 26.06 16.03 7.15 5.99 2.38 13.20 0.92 0.71 42.76 2095 5.02 3.74 4.05 6.32 5.22 2.44 2.20 5.76 4.25 5.54 6.24 3.31 4.51 4.34 4.83 2.20 1.57 97.31 2096 1.97 1.56 1.51 0.98 5.01 1.24 0.97 6.22 6.85 18.49 18.93 8.17 5.99 2.43 13.11 0.97 0.83 83.06 2097 4.92 3.88 3.61 2.65 4.44 2.19 1.53 4.99 12.61 7.96 4.58 3.40 4.73 3.53 7.14 1.53 1.17 70.59 2098 2.23 2.00 1.99 1.14 0.91 0.70 0.63 0.50 5.25 8.56 4.86 4.22 2.75 1.26 5.72 0.50 0.36 51.85 2099 3.05 3.13 1.49 1.39 8.16 6.72 3.58 2.01 6.93 7.83 10.63 3.97 4.91 3.69 7.34 1.39 1.01 117.61 QCĐ 3.81 3.02 2.45 2.08 2.99 2.38 1.51 3.09 8.07 17.25 9.64 5.81 5.17 2.67 10.19 1.14 0.80 88.27
Bảng . 21: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2016- 2035 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2016 0.97 0.46 0.29 0.23 0.26 6.83 1.22 0.97 7.41 21.74 8.60 4.04 4.42 1.40 10.45 0.23 0.00 138.82 2017 3.12 2.49 2.02 1.52 2.84 1.14 0.89 2.76 3.29 15.51 5.00 5.50 3.84 2.10 7.32 0.89 0.73 36.85 2018 3.20 3.09 2.19 2.22 1.43 1.37 0.77 10.56 7.85 5.20 10.43 3.17 4.29 3.11 6.66 0.77 0.62 159.58 2019 2.88 1.97 1.55 1.21 0.98 1.05 0.59 0.47 2.94 15.12 2.87 2.24 2.82 1.34 5.80 0.47 0.36 25.04 2020 1.81 1.38 1.74 1.61 7.17 3.97 3.45 8.86 4.42 26.89 12.59 6.60 6.71 3.75 12.62 1.38 0.85 103.23 2021 4.68 4.50 4.21 2.67 2.73 3.14 2.24 3.47 6.36 22.10 8.04 4.93 5.76 3.46 10.36 2.24 1.07 59.91 2022 3.99 2.88 2.27 1.75 2.31 1.15 0.89 5.78 3.65 37.07 10.61 9.31 6.81 2.63 15.16 0.89 0.70 55.65 2023 6.07 4.29 3.38 2.65 2.16 6.24 2.65 1.76 7.83 22.57 5.93 4.29 5.82 3.65 10.15 1.76 1.37 65.37 2024 3.20 2.54 2.03 1.64 1.22 0.95 1.17 1.47 5.04 19.78 4.53 4.81 4.03 1.78 8.54 0.95 0.54 32.72 2025 2.75 2.34 2.35 1.40 1.27 0.91 0.78 1.19 5.72 4.91 3.73 9.03 3.03 1.62 5.85 0.78 0.49 35.04
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2026 2.46 1.93 1.89 1.23 4.06 1.16 0.91 3.22 9.06 24.02 12.33 6.11 5.70 2.11 12.88 0.91 0.66 68.86 2027 4.98 3.81 3.22 2.56 3.03 3.52 2.75 1.75 13.91 10.98 17.64 6.45 6.22 3.20 12.24 1.75 1.17 57.23 2028 4.79 3.47 2.71 3.67 2.40 1.94 1.20 1.19 16.00 13.82 5.18 3.47 4.99 2.67 9.62 1.19 0.82 112.74 2029 2.70 2.26 1.69 1.41 3.33 1.09 0.86 0.67 9.33 5.86 8.80 4.66 3.56 1.75 7.16 0.67 0.55 57.30 2030 3.38 2.16 2.07 1.85 6.03 1.67 1.30 1.05 3.00 22.92 14.39 6.19 5.50 2.44 11.63 1.05 0.77 31.61 2031 4.38 3.31 4.22 7.59 6.26 2.67 2.46 6.38 4.02 5.02 5.45 3.11 4.57 4.66 4.40 2.46 1.73 94.21 2032 1.79 1.41 1.54 0.92 6.56 1.51 1.17 6.88 6.45 16.55 17.17 7.18 5.76 2.72 11.84 0.92 0.79 99.44 2033 4.49 3.54 3.30 2.93 5.49 2.37 1.64 5.42 11.66 6.61 4.83 2.99 4.61 3.65 6.52 1.64 1.25 55.73 2034 2.06 1.77 2.15 1.09 0.90 0.67 0.60 0.48 4.41 7.41 4.12 3.49 2.43 1.21 4.86 0.48 0.35 37.68 2035 2.43 2.46 1.22 1.42 10.58 7.49 4.05 2.35 6.17 7.16 9.43 3.65 4.87 4.00 6.60 1.22 0.87 147.22 QCĐ 3.31 2.60 2.30 2.08 3.55 2.54 1.58 3.33 6.93 15.56 8.58 5.06 4.79 2.66 9.03 1.13 0.78 73.71
Bảng . 22: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2046- 2065 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2046 1.01 0.53 0.30 0.23 0.25 7.32 1.31 1.05 8.24 23.56 9.39 4.43 4.80 1.50 11.40 0.23 0.00 151.59 2047 3.40 2.76 2.20 1.66 2.72 1.19 0.93 3.11 3.70 16.84 5.52 6.27 4.19 2.25 8.08 0.93 0.77 43.16 2048 3.65 3.58 2.44 2.33 1.55 1.56 0.86 11.44 8.73 5.65 11.44 3.49 4.73 3.43 7.33 0.86 0.70 190.68 2049 3.26 2.18 1.72 1.34 1.09 1.16 0.65 0.53 3.39 16.53 3.17 2.47 3.12 1.49 6.39 0.53 0.40 28.50 2050 2.03 1.52 1.81 1.61 6.69 4.18 3.69 9.43 4.76 29.11 13.66 7.24 7.14 3.87 13.69 1.52 0.93 123.30 2051 5.14 5.07 4.46 2.88 2.84 3.34 2.53 3.80 7.09 24.12 8.84 5.53 6.30 3.76 11.39 2.53 1.17 85.43 2052 4.57 3.24 2.53 1.95 2.36 1.26 0.98 6.35 4.17 40.11 11.65 10.38 7.46 2.90 16.58 0.98 0.77 88.76
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2053 6.81 4.79 3.74 2.93 2.39 6.76 3.07 2.01 8.93 24.49 6.56 4.76 6.44 4.06 11.18 2.01 1.52 95.51 2054 3.54 2.82 2.24 1.81 1.34 1.05 1.35 1.70 5.75 21.51 5.05 5.45 4.47 1.98 9.44 1.05 0.60 49.61 2055 3.07 2.69 2.51 1.55 1.37 1.08 1.04 1.62 6.41 5.50 4.24 10.47 3.46 1.87 6.66 1.04 0.55 59.85 2056 2.86 2.22 2.10 1.40 3.86 1.21 0.96 3.62 9.98 25.90 13.41 6.82 6.20 2.28 14.03 0.96 0.70 93.63 2057 5.52 4.27 3.46 2.78 3.10 3.79 3.04 2.01 15.31 12.05 19.53 6.80 6.80 3.49 13.42 2.01 1.28 95.03 2058 5.34 3.89 2.99 3.71 2.54 2.12 1.29 1.38 17.58 15.04 5.69 3.80 5.45 2.91 10.52 1.29 0.89 190.41 2059 2.95 2.57 1.85 1.64 3.19 1.15 0.90 0.71 10.43 6.48 9.71 5.19 3.90 1.87 7.95 0.71 0.60 72.34 2060 3.88 2.45 2.22 1.96 5.69 1.66 1.34 1.02 3.49 25.14 15.50 6.86 5.93 2.53 12.75 1.02 0.78 41.67 2061 4.83 3.62 4.29 7.24 5.99 2.69 2.51 6.83 4.40 5.54 6.17 3.28 4.78 4.75 4.85 2.51 1.72 117.01 2062 1.99 1.57 1.64 1.00 6.17 1.47 1.13 7.48 7.00 18.08 18.45 7.96 6.16 2.81 12.87 1.00 0.86 102.44 2063 4.86 3.83 3.74 2.77 5.23 2.44 1.68 5.93 12.61 7.88 4.58 3.38 4.91 3.81 7.11 1.68 1.27 69.75 2064 2.25 1.99 2.21 1.17 0.96 0.72 0.68 0.56 5.10 8.22 4.65 3.99 2.71 1.32 5.49 0.56 0.38 49.75 2065 2.86 2.92 1.41 1.49 9.84 7.78 4.32 2.40 6.99 7.75 10.39 3.95 5.18 4.13 7.27 1.41 0.99 141.76 QCĐ 3.69 2.92 2.49 2.17 3.46 2.70 1.71 3.65 7.70 16.97 9.38 5.63 5.21 2.85 9.92 1.24 0.84 94.51
Bảng . 23: L u l ng dòng ch y l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2080- 2099 (m3/s)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
2080 1.06 0.58 0.31 0.24 0.24 7.10 1.28 1.02 9.46 26.57 10.71 5.03 5.30 1.48 12.94 0.24 0.00 147.30 2081 3.85 3.15 2.47 1.88 2.63 1.29 1.01 3.07 4.24 19.13 6.38 7.07 4.68 2.42 9.21 1.01 0.83 41.83 2082 4.16 4.10 2.68 2.45 1.65 1.62 0.95 11.24 9.77 6.30 12.99 3.88 5.15 3.61 8.23 0.95 0.77 186.79 2083 3.67 2.43 1.92 1.50 1.20 1.21 0.72 0.58 4.08 18.94 3.70 2.86 3.57 1.65 7.39 0.58 0.44 33.53 2084 2.38 1.76 1.93 1.62 5.96 3.98 3.52 9.15 4.98 32.63 15.35 8.02 7.61 3.79 15.25 1.62 1.04 120.43 2085 5.71 5.68 4.73 3.11 2.88 3.31 2.57 3.78 7.99 27.28 10.10 6.28 6.95 3.97 12.91 2.57 1.22 97.51 2086 5.23 3.70 2.86 2.22 2.42 1.40 1.09 6.27 4.72 45.94 13.13 11.56 8.38 3.15 18.84 1.09 0.86 86.28 2087 7.61 5.35 4.16 3.25 2.61 6.79 3.16 2.09 10.17 27.73 7.39 5.39 7.14 4.38 12.67 2.09 1.60 111.67 2088 4.03 3.19 2.51 2.01 1.52 1.19 1.43 1.74 6.58 24.48 5.86 6.24 5.06 2.20 10.79 1.19 0.67 56.30 2089 3.52 3.10 2.71 1.76 1.49 1.19 1.11 1.65 7.42 6.37 5.02 11.80 3.93 2.07 7.65 1.11 0.62 68.03 2090 3.30 2.55 2.30 1.59 3.56 1.26 0.99 3.56 11.30 29.17 15.17 7.73 6.87 2.39 15.84 0.99 0.72 106.35 2091 6.23 4.85 3.78 2.98 3.08 3.80 3.05 2.03 17.36 13.73 22.13 7.72 7.56 3.73 15.23 2.03 1.32 108.03 2092 6.07 4.45 3.39 3.79 2.63 2.22 1.40 1.44 19.97 17.03 6.54 4.37 6.11 3.17 11.98 1.40 0.95 217.40 2093 3.37 2.97 2.11 1.81 3.10 1.24 0.97 0.77 12.08 7.45 11.13 5.90 4.41 2.04 9.14 0.77 0.65 82.68 2094 4.47 2.83 2.43 2.09 5.19 1.67 1.34 1.03 4.13 28.58 17.53 7.81 6.59 2.63 14.51 1.03 0.79 48.95 2095 5.50 4.11 4.48 6.92 5.70 2.70 2.50 6.69 4.87 6.27 7.00 3.68 5.03 4.83 5.45 2.50 1.73 113.82 2096 2.23 1.77 1.72 1.11 5.54 1.40 1.09 7.26 7.67 20.30 20.71 8.89 6.64 2.76 14.39 1.09 0.93 90.33 2097 5.41 4.27 3.98 2.94 4.92 2.47 1.72 5.82 13.95 8.88 5.13 3.78 5.27 3.94 7.94 1.72 1.30 77.33 2098 2.49 2.23 2.25 1.28 1.03 0.78 0.73 0.59 5.97 9.50 5.47 4.59 3.08 1.42 6.38 0.59 0.41 58.62 2099 3.33 3.38 1.64 1.57 8.89 7.56 4.16 2.31 7.88 8.74 11.77 4.44 5.47 4.10 8.21 1.57 1.12 126.69
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Qn QK QL Qmin tháng Qmin ngày Qmax ngày
QCĐ 4.18 3.32 2.72 2.31 3.31 2.71 1.74 3.60 8.73 19.25 10.66 6.35 5.74 2.99 11.25 1.31 0.90 98.99
Bảng . 24: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn – giai đo n 2086-2005 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
1986 7,893,520 5,745,832 5,025,123 3,723,355 5,130,200 2,462,927 1,992,076 6,462,886 7,779,806 39,278,574 12,052,383 14,855,374 112,402,055
1987 8,474,998 7,628,850 5,495,056 4,892,706 3,302,106 3,125,991 1,920,979 25,973,438 17,445,906 14,738,322 25,431,724 8,101,845 126,531,921
1988 7,522,615 4,508,258 3,923,721 2,971,614 2,437,917 2,351,703 1,472,726 1,173,063 7,120,010 38,518,549 7,044,994 5,687,088 84,732,258
1989 4,652,387 3,158,176 3,761,905 3,038,301 12,905,938 8,319,269 7,542,970 21,093,153 10,113,031 68,314,097 30,564,530 16,826,669 190,290,426
1990 11,854,617 10,632,924 9,806,079 6,193,319 5,858,150 6,539,548 5,292,975 8,231,892 15,337,128 56,473,231 19,576,270 12,723,819 168,519,951
1991 10,492,699 6,709,709 5,770,965 4,345,148 4,819,682 2,708,296 2,189,237 13,933,066 8,880,557 94,447,731 26,156,517 24,751,737 205,205,344
1992 16,155,918 10,153,233 8,764,087 6,637,446 5,443,728 14,754,567 6,863,893 4,445,868 19,405,830 57,640,068 14,642,761 11,044,375 175,951,773
1993 8,184,348 5,879,077 5,103,801 3,937,436 3,107,410 2,353,136 2,904,558 3,676,250 12,455,847 50,461,896 11,077,618 12,754,272 121,895,649
1994 7,093,938 5,626,259 5,472,181 3,407,270 2,961,392 2,252,246 2,123,024 3,298,689 13,698,309 12,425,170 9,092,409 25,262,101 92,712,987
1995 6,624,490 4,689,134 4,696,563 3,152,936 7,439,387 2,482,424 2,013,323 7,682,479 21,525,291 61,271,942 30,592,983 15,984,857 168,155,811
1996 13,057,386 9,005,973 7,720,622 5,861,628 6,271,606 7,868,114 6,353,190 4,117,249 34,137,581 27,793,509 44,317,471 15,778,857 182,283,186
1997 12,429,808 8,089,935 6,899,191 7,477,983 5,260,969 4,326,949 2,804,408 2,843,001 39,489,594 35,260,898 12,578,083 8,755,984 146,216,804
1998 6,808,619 5,314,048 4,249,575 3,434,400 6,400,983 2,380,978 1,926,072 1,507,678 22,848,647 14,815,796 21,765,845 12,243,514 103,696,155
1999 9,030,050 5,121,973 4,809,777 4,063,286 11,029,900 3,307,893 2,672,900 2,163,301 7,058,571 58,007,964 35,548,666 16,155,170 158,969,450
2000 11,313,052 7,615,129 9,199,381 14,570,121 12,484,874 5,493,922 5,235,919 15,030,668 9,233,031 12,219,193 13,416,810 7,366,371 123,178,470
2001 4,363,561 3,108,770 3,348,368 2,096,289 12,088,161 2,785,323 2,240,501 16,523,663 15,346,872 42,256,360 42,001,926 18,731,411 164,891,205
2002 11,323,778 8,066,240 8,308,126 5,872,463 10,500,192 4,981,523 3,532,486 13,018,425 28,265,636 17,950,107 10,000,799 7,673,457 129,493,232
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm 2003 5,074,960 4,084,022 4,549,840 2,493,308 2,058,890 1,526,994 1,453,890 1,170,072 10,859,032 18,828,418 10,052,900 9,413,844 71,566,170
2004 6,660,665 6,119,308 3,253,705 2,922,131 19,976,010 16,904,053 9,160,971 5,015,903 14,806,873 17,480,444 23,074,202 8,860,081 134,234,345
2005 6,451,095 4,536,332 3,964,687 3,002,644 2,639,319 1,857,125 5,604,750 10,527,627 20,735,508 34,757,218 27,044,658 12,273,353 133,394,314
QCĐ 8,773,125 6,289,659 5,706,138 4,704,689 7,105,841 4,939,149 3,765,042 8,394,418 16,827,153 38,646,974 21,301,677 13,262,209 139,716,075
Bảng . 25: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2016- 2035 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
2016 2,797,793 1,358,935 825,008 621,561 577,410 20,251,813 3,755,141 3,016,055 20,776,417 61,121,895 23,537,156 11,534,738 150,173,923
2017 8,868,407 6,543,046 5,661,724 4,190,759 5,669,096 2,780,810 2,249,214 8,894,086 9,280,623 43,524,048 13,738,203 17,097,325 128,497,342
2018 9,848,542 8,909,815 6,243,686 5,488,122 3,767,202 3,895,303 2,238,656 32,671,419 22,257,423 14,945,769 28,802,887 9,235,977 148,304,801
2019 8,841,328 5,234,706 4,575,025 3,464,879 2,842,946 2,910,736 1,724,034 1,420,880 8,356,321 42,602,146 7,889,374 6,361,124 96,223,498
2020 5,292,736 3,535,072 4,201,000 3,340,812 13,268,873 10,264,779 9,713,102 26,287,057 12,068,114 75,384,034 34,194,862 19,125,951 216,676,392
2021 13,516,296 12,334,681 11,099,291 7,048,702 6,576,287 8,065,916 6,811,978 10,617,312 17,876,487 62,417,001 22,075,253 14,592,962 193,032,165
2022 12,216,945 7,726,583 6,578,458 4,945,965 5,387,542 3,099,997 2,495,803 18,261,054 10,639,910 104,034,748 29,213,475 28,026,159 232,626,640
2023 18,267,231 11,487,530 9,888,067 7,488,680 6,140,674 18,173,532 8,563,252 5,595,932 22,619,155 63,475,415 16,553,582 12,538,034 200,791,083
2024 9,308,352 6,675,446 5,763,760 4,452,142 3,505,258 2,654,390 3,766,235 4,859,987 14,557,273 55,650,834 12,603,984 14,719,799 138,517,460
2025 8,090,046 6,495,562 6,155,120 3,888,284 3,358,602 2,743,316 2,907,137 4,719,184 16,181,103 14,213,957 10,549,284 29,314,186 108,615,782
2026 7,842,371 5,470,638 5,412,581 3,643,606 7,968,739 2,804,391 2,293,411 10,186,753 25,042,802 67,083,757 33,583,925 18,075,541 189,408,513
2027 14,689,646 10,302,616 8,688,476 6,568,284 6,871,970 9,496,344 8,315,648 5,478,108 38,352,566 31,094,202 48,863,117 17,878,997 206,599,975
2028 14,117,519 9,254,151 7,785,227 8,238,168 5,845,143 5,150,367 3,191,789 3,689,213 43,988,335 38,833,972 14,131,854 9,861,935 164,087,674
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm 2029 7,616,094 6,123,587 4,779,003 3,870,913 6,936,913 2,672,797 2,162,138 1,723,670 25,924,359 16,606,877 24,144,059 13,904,012 116,464,422
2030 10,487,400 5,849,253 5,412,544 4,543,785 11,560,037 3,595,101 3,039,765 2,293,694 8,330,409 64,642,776 38,590,304 17,996,410 176,341,479
2031 12,558,301 8,417,390 10,039,527 15,266,324 13,031,071 6,022,242 6,101,658 18,877,501 10,845,816 14,129,866 15,271,263 8,695,562 139,256,521
2032 5,169,231 3,697,504 3,893,518 2,471,362 12,559,720 3,092,418 2,455,831 21,050,971 17,616,846 46,759,194 46,229,496 21,302,231 186,298,322
2033 12,701,511 9,047,612 9,236,962 6,556,917 11,136,759 5,696,613 3,977,546 16,521,685 31,811,449 20,322,833 11,425,482 8,982,506 147,417,875
2034 5,861,528 4,769,796 5,119,180 2,874,356 2,370,051 1,760,685 1,803,852 1,516,465 12,707,152 21,130,305 11,489,626 10,866,550 82,269,548
2035 7,849,423 7,355,602 3,804,462 3,363,764 20,504,629 20,064,376 11,391,090 6,062,291 17,238,544 19,787,444 25,781,942 10,149,654 153,353,219
QCĐ 9,797,035 7,029,476 6,258,131 5,116,369 7,493,946 6,759,796 4,447,864 10,187,166 19,323,555 43,888,054 23,433,456 15,012,983 158,747,832
Bảng . 26: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2046- 2065 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
2046 2,919,767 1,480,386 857,824 645,872 649,322 18,492,467 3,438,805 2,740,475 21,373,390 63,296,741 24,398,509 11,903,021 152,196,578
2047 9,134,886 6,820,624 5,898,862 4,326,988 6,562,147 2,995,625 2,422,912 8,054,493 9,535,974 45,219,826 14,324,910 18,239,215 133,536,459
2048 10,529,186 9,626,652 6,755,528 6,021,275 4,132,432 4,006,409 2,389,455 30,083,361 22,643,627 15,135,230 29,732,826 9,348,513 150,404,494
2049 9,198,513 5,329,868 4,658,192 3,527,865 2,922,315 2,923,087 1,755,131 1,418,448 8,832,197 44,464,073 8,268,147 6,649,936 99,947,772
2050 5,647,467 3,704,576 4,670,021 3,810,362 15,504,834 10,095,305 9,264,521 24,434,883 11,989,941 77,939,390 35,325,451 19,849,787 222,236,538
2051 13,996,251 13,038,680 11,914,982 7,462,838 7,220,151 8,205,646 6,594,741 9,926,642 18,311,480 64,764,725 22,932,173 15,305,300 199,673,609
2052 12,958,258 8,138,793 6,918,492 5,180,360 6,005,042 3,285,247 2,650,302 16,648,589 10,790,985 107,772,995 30,297,601 29,613,095 240,259,760
2053 19,256,823 12,046,120 10,318,212 7,814,449 6,478,757 17,255,225 8,182,820 5,368,366 23,175,213 65,829,152 17,061,091 13,017,028 205,803,254
2054 9,669,456 6,924,212 6,005,279 4,670,018 3,616,583 2,738,509 3,560,183 4,470,237 14,897,509 57,831,397 13,128,134 15,672,155 143,183,671
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm 2055 8,478,283 6,885,551 6,664,936 4,111,309 3,627,161 2,807,119 2,763,040 4,256,072 16,646,100 14,788,786 11,043,824 31,699,650 113,771,831
2056 8,430,051 5,840,226 5,895,081 3,909,804 9,291,995 3,135,117 2,553,634 9,470,275 25,907,726 69,582,946 34,865,561 19,083,014 197,965,430
2057 15,477,475 10,921,722 9,303,582 7,096,658 7,720,022 9,472,346 7,891,636 5,216,622 39,715,263 32,335,508 50,764,272 18,774,401 214,689,508
2058 14,859,162 9,762,105 8,136,034 9,090,817 6,443,061 5,325,725 3,403,774 3,604,051 45,653,487 40,381,250 14,767,634 10,441,436 171,868,536
2059 7,954,844 6,535,747 5,016,389 4,199,644 7,892,262 2,924,264 2,365,561 1,864,723 27,080,773 17,409,558 25,244,710 14,831,305 123,319,780
2060 11,342,141 6,257,713 5,962,288 5,013,625 13,474,595 4,067,647 3,390,363 2,584,808 8,967,005 67,494,271 40,247,430 19,132,418 187,934,304
2061 13,294,137 8,869,351 11,042,055 17,135,683 14,596,907 6,546,055 6,329,814 17,688,837 11,171,347 14,705,113 15,900,288 9,243,526 146,523,114
2062 5,439,549 3,900,988 4,279,693 2,619,187 14,505,033 3,459,516 2,771,790 19,405,973 17,951,224 48,401,906 47,864,291 22,440,135 193,039,284
2063 13,160,094 9,374,252 9,832,849 6,981,867 12,600,476 6,008,540 4,273,551 15,384,198 32,545,260 21,022,716 11,785,569 9,440,168 152,409,540
2064 6,051,820 5,017,387 5,628,943 3,032,659 2,525,428 1,857,548 1,810,336 1,484,979 13,254,607 22,111,800 12,100,994 11,711,289 86,587,789
2065 8,559,071 8,050,337 4,100,837 3,816,393 23,434,462 19,470,948 11,031,835 6,081,725 17,918,423 20,636,201 26,882,627 10,646,191 160,629,051
QCĐ 10,317,862 7,426,265 6,693,004 5,523,384 8,460,149 6,753,617 4,442,210 9,509,388 19,918,077 45,556,179 24,346,802 15,852,079 164,799,015
Bảng . 27: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP . – giai đo n 2080- 2099 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
2080 2,789,733 1,350,859 822,884 619,995 596,172 15,799,962 2,936,212 2,312,267 37,634,378 50,163,054 25,082,193 11,986,820 152,094,531
2081 9,316,808 6,861,073 5,962,355 4,402,704 6,156,915 2,961,452 2,395,312 6,710,585 9,521,737 46,571,516 14,729,530 17,524,659 133,114,647
2082 10,171,127 9,120,177 6,504,426 5,755,393 3,952,644 3,608,535 2,289,252 26,241,913 22,617,679 15,007,362 30,340,319 9,262,345 144,871,173
2083 8,839,069 5,239,896 4,579,561 3,468,315 2,856,142 2,695,172 1,718,890 1,364,250 9,207,660 46,097,827 8,583,297 6,888,852 101,538,930
2084 5,707,891 3,829,348 4,579,601 3,684,076 14,395,217 8,816,922 7,905,371 21,260,784 11,301,653 82,198,093 35,971,197 19,542,250 219,192,402
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm 2085 13,828,178 12,533,798 11,453,443 7,258,791 6,879,855 7,324,530 5,819,742 8,602,532 18,300,515 66,586,978 23,490,628 15,200,127 197,279,117
2086 12,672,989 8,056,774 6,882,985 5,167,549 5,739,233 3,241,392 2,619,997 14,273,494 10,647,136 110,931,037 31,120,905 28,924,963 240,278,454
2087 18,945,187 11,979,509 10,321,808 7,817,177 6,435,520 15,456,657 7,432,716 4,889,632 23,326,062 67,764,182 17,376,984 13,085,653 204,831,086
2088 9,734,958 6,979,922 6,053,448 4,682,551 3,669,697 2,778,862 3,235,839 3,915,622 15,029,009 59,720,890 13,546,727 15,308,128 144,655,651
2089 8,531,692 6,804,979 6,533,363 4,110,381 3,576,741 2,685,888 2,459,211 3,533,734 16,804,091 15,193,737 11,405,546 29,687,562 111,326,924
2090 8,051,778 5,622,336 5,606,291 3,751,365 8,546,183 2,943,849 2,386,444 8,065,340 26,287,901 71,562,601 35,806,488 18,932,606 197,563,182
2091 15,309,879 10,738,812 9,149,989 6,955,359 7,380,209 8,595,291 6,861,859 4,518,072 40,574,146 33,207,854 52,287,417 18,804,190 214,383,077
2092 14,802,246 9,740,466 8,217,129 8,808,835 6,270,746 5,026,867 3,353,581 3,260,084 46,872,302 41,629,697 15,232,240 10,525,503 173,739,696
2093 8,140,605 6,486,665 5,104,225 4,172,074 7,460,752 2,876,041 2,326,549 1,819,464 27,902,031 17,999,645 26,143,926 14,561,167 124,993,144
2094 10,980,276 6,212,727 5,828,397 4,878,909 12,518,646 3,885,813 3,205,782 2,462,426 9,225,246 69,811,872 41,555,689 19,158,149 189,723,931
2095 13,447,236 9,054,240 10,846,273 16,391,281 13,970,394 6,315,021 5,886,761 15,437,377 11,008,394 14,842,103 16,183,038 8,854,600 142,236,719
2096 5,279,282 3,775,537 4,051,114 2,535,499 13,425,799 3,220,120 2,590,640 16,658,506 17,758,975 49,519,991 49,061,095 21,893,275 189,769,833
2097 13,189,499 9,395,224 9,657,182 6,863,328 11,893,287 5,677,986 4,093,720 13,355,503 32,692,868 21,328,359 11,865,268 9,117,881 149,130,107
2098 5,964,811 4,840,443 5,335,330 2,944,413 2,438,468 1,803,525 1,674,696 1,339,187 13,600,079 22,925,746 12,598,082 11,306,421 86,771,200
2099 8,156,217 7,560,451 4,002,680 3,598,770 21,862,224 17,430,623 9,593,374 5,375,747 17,954,764 20,962,289 27,541,755 10,637,455 154,676,348
QCĐ 10,192,973 7,309,162 6,574,624 5,393,338 8,001,242 6,157,225 4,039,297 8,269,826 20,913,331 46,201,242 24,996,116 15,560,130 163,608,508
Bảng . 28: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP8.5 – giai đo n 2016- 2035 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
2016 2,591,632 1,116,844 768,013 596,918 703,009 17,702,627 3,269,127 2,591,542 19,205,813 58,221,645 23,021,507 10,482,972 140,271,650
2017 8,344,127 6,669,601 4,878,809 4,066,958 7,351,756 3,052,679 2,312,195 7,399,615 8,800,955 40,199,795 13,385,535 14,743,116 121,205,143
2018 8,305,984 8,279,736 5,870,335 5,376,554 3,823,235 3,561,448 2,066,953 27,370,596 21,021,152 13,924,239 27,047,256 8,503,326 135,150,814
2019 7,700,952 5,096,556 4,157,337 3,253,496 2,367,046 2,812,782 1,518,425 1,248,827 7,629,244 40,508,622 7,696,616 5,815,228 89,805,133
2020 4,857,564 3,694,511 4,505,889 4,308,636 19,192,297 9,604,835 9,239,168 22,965,000 11,841,643 69,695,099 33,710,210 17,686,712 211,301,566
2021 12,141,619 12,060,225 11,276,038 6,931,830 7,324,962 8,422,278 5,407,660 9,301,024 16,490,546 59,195,829 20,836,049 13,210,385 182,598,444
2022 10,698,829 7,459,474 6,088,743 4,688,455 5,995,085 3,070,515 2,397,153 13,986,214 9,771,462 96,090,464 28,412,477 24,142,475 212,801,346
2023 16,251,454 11,492,445 8,762,351 7,085,911 5,795,020 16,162,166 7,084,826 4,707,363 18,945,154 60,448,681 15,360,383 11,479,081 183,574,835
2024 8,297,063 6,800,491 5,447,214 4,257,122 3,266,622 2,555,723 3,037,931 3,931,047 13,508,408 47,857,306 12,125,668 12,472,754 123,557,349
2025 7,360,023 6,055,333 6,295,165 3,750,716 3,298,364 2,431,851 2,090,890 3,074,738 15,324,395 13,163,237 9,031,898 24,173,704 96,050,315
2026 6,372,001 5,162,710 4,908,214 3,288,963 10,871,691 3,015,450 2,444,898 8,611,373 23,478,853 64,336,228 33,020,038 14,783,398 180,293,818
2027 13,350,116 9,886,531 8,628,965 6,633,446 8,125,048 9,426,226 7,134,467 4,695,975 37,246,113 28,467,312 47,255,489 17,262,437 198,112,125
2028 11,598,610 9,284,902 7,012,967 9,833,160 6,222,452 5,193,311 3,218,691 3,077,570 42,858,872 37,009,704 13,425,150 9,301,546 158,036,935
2029 7,239,238 5,474,676 4,537,349 3,665,219 8,918,436 2,837,062 2,295,017 1,792,762 24,195,391 15,690,568 23,577,377 12,072,608 112,295,704
2030 9,052,951 5,796,422 5,014,353 4,952,484 15,618,925 4,462,585 3,376,985 2,824,508 8,025,048 59,420,960 38,554,274 16,587,044 173,686,540
2031 11,365,336 8,869,602 11,294,955 18,359,722 16,771,666 6,926,535 6,578,333 16,541,676 10,764,999 13,452,688 14,123,686 8,336,398 143,385,596
2032 4,785,316 3,652,169 4,113,619 2,453,683 15,862,785 4,034,703 3,025,410 18,428,014 16,720,735 44,316,589 45,975,139 18,621,560 181,989,720
2033 12,036,934 9,492,895 8,557,260 7,836,764 14,693,758 5,731,515 4,402,588 14,038,045 31,229,806 17,129,008 12,940,546 8,012,608 146,101,727
2034 5,345,790 4,727,905 5,752,807 2,912,632 2,173,928 1,783,637 1,566,056 1,277,073 11,433,184 19,842,285 11,026,797 9,041,104 76,883,198
2035 6,502,996 6,586,280 3,174,105 3,791,577 28,335,474 18,120,181 10,841,254 6,091,178 16,514,540 18,547,314 25,258,528 9,765,873 153,529,301
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm QCĐ 8,709,927 6,882,966 6,052,224 5,402,212 9,335,578 6,545,406 4,165,401 8,697,707 18,250,316 40,875,879 22,789,231 13,324,716 151,031,563
Bảng . 29: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP8.5 – giai đo n 2046- 2065 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
2046 2,711,366 1,272,374 802,903 605,266 675,189 18,966,804 3,511,890 2,803,828 21,358,173 63,101,379 24,329,229 11,863,534 152,001,934
2047 9,119,293 6,670,222 5,896,390 4,305,675 7,294,514 3,093,097 2,501,684 8,339,365 9,597,963 45,114,163 14,313,859 16,790,401 133,036,625
2048 9,768,368 8,666,229 6,529,931 6,031,838 4,139,711 4,046,122 2,310,005 30,635,490 22,624,342 15,130,924 29,649,351 9,343,895 148,876,204
2049 8,728,354 5,265,732 4,602,150 3,485,417 2,910,688 2,996,992 1,741,584 1,413,678 8,781,916 44,271,555 8,226,513 6,618,048 99,042,627
2050 5,439,535 3,675,538 4,841,342 4,161,345 17,918,967 10,826,839 9,874,672 25,248,853 12,338,096 77,955,321 35,417,705 19,400,537 227,098,750
2051 13,776,520 12,256,415 11,934,034 7,452,830 7,595,028 8,656,860 6,773,916 10,181,468 18,371,676 64,600,574 22,901,826 14,806,497 199,307,644
2052 12,243,741 7,832,847 6,772,285 5,050,682 6,321,806 3,257,507 2,625,042 17,018,574 10,811,364 107,424,245 30,208,556 27,805,199 237,371,849
2053 18,247,130 11,584,019 10,012,656 7,583,040 6,391,957 17,520,749 8,230,067 5,380,675 23,139,276 65,584,045 17,002,970 12,760,330 203,436,914
2054 9,494,184 6,813,209 6,007,299 4,699,707 3,594,554 2,721,689 3,612,341 4,559,079 14,896,393 57,623,215 13,083,072 14,602,207 141,706,949
2055 8,225,536 6,512,295 6,732,280 4,020,814 3,665,233 2,793,376 2,778,614 4,345,713 16,625,017 14,730,037 10,993,448 28,041,359 109,463,724
2056 7,657,989 5,374,673 5,623,538 3,622,168 10,341,692 3,147,838 2,567,144 9,689,385 25,879,207 69,367,698 34,765,136 18,261,947 196,298,414
2057 14,791,654 10,334,914 9,261,045 7,195,178 8,299,268 9,812,367 8,129,594 5,384,746 39,680,366 32,280,411 50,625,201 18,205,075 213,999,818
2058 14,312,036 9,409,241 7,997,045 9,608,352 6,795,802 5,489,170 3,455,758 3,703,736 45,562,997 40,269,996 14,737,114 10,176,106 171,517,354
2059 7,908,555 6,210,639 4,945,421 4,251,423 8,543,953 2,988,947 2,417,886 1,909,491 27,030,894 17,365,835 25,162,818 13,900,690 122,636,553
2060 10,384,626 5,922,388 5,956,812 5,068,517 15,238,117 4,312,528 3,594,607 2,740,214 9,050,149 67,322,935 40,166,404 18,378,236 188,135,535
2061 12,947,487 8,746,680 11,495,580 18,767,554 16,037,614 6,963,084 6,710,225 18,293,814 11,393,782 14,851,714 15,990,504 8,772,794 150,970,833
2062 5,325,401 3,800,860 4,397,505 2,603,939 16,513,412 3,800,465 3,038,085 20,041,149 18,145,458 48,414,226 47,833,727 21,307,230 195,221,458
2063 13,021,760 9,275,752 10,022,534 7,168,975 14,015,114 6,322,399 4,502,416 15,870,459 32,682,527 21,102,542 11,862,685 9,048,701 154,895,865
2064 6,020,613 4,807,170 5,916,765 3,041,529 2,572,451 1,862,954 1,834,180 1,509,417 13,224,005 22,021,880 12,045,221 10,694,988 85,551,171
2065 7,659,409 7,073,900 3,786,623 3,865,438 26,347,293 20,176,873 11,564,186 6,429,640 18,122,117 20,760,405 26,931,179 10,569,693 163,286,756
QCĐ 9,889,178 7,075,255 6,676,707 5,629,484 9,260,618 6,987,833 4,588,695 9,774,939 19,965,786 45,464,655 24,312,326 15,067,373 164,692,849
Bảng . 30: Tổng l ng nước ch y về h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK( theo KB RCP8.5 – giai đo n 2080- 2099 (m3)
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm
2080 2,842,262 1,402,803 836,656 630,178 637,220 18,407,099 3,416,947 2,722,350 24,524,026 71,177,606 27,750,583 13,462,926 167,810,655
2081 10,317,022 7,613,336 6,626,722 4,879,246 7,030,924 3,335,248 2,697,643 8,232,647 10,978,248 51,244,650 16,538,318 18,940,725 148,434,731
2082 11,145,462 9,923,191 7,184,716 6,358,900 4,407,690 4,206,574 2,552,130 30,108,214 25,313,526 16,862,640 33,667,884 10,378,803 162,109,729
2083 9,823,548 5,868,835 5,129,244 3,884,614 3,210,538 3,135,219 1,931,552 1,555,049 10,574,317 50,728,500 9,583,828 7,648,756 113,074,000
2084 6,369,107 4,258,051 5,158,037 4,197,081 15,957,566 10,326,730 9,438,837 24,514,980 12,915,936 87,390,577 39,798,572 21,481,172 241,806,647
2085 15,288,731 13,732,394 12,657,022 8,056,404 7,721,816 8,575,003 6,875,623 10,126,159 20,705,450 73,073,140 26,171,046 16,815,253 219,798,039
2086 14,008,550 8,950,567 7,660,820 5,742,596 6,470,461 3,630,190 2,929,463 16,799,067 12,245,683 123,041,074 34,028,045 30,962,771 266,469,286
2087 20,389,880 12,942,050 11,138,687 8,435,833 6,985,346 17,594,162 8,472,575 5,596,040 26,359,702 74,259,660 19,162,113 14,445,346 225,781,394
2088 10,786,862 7,725,091 6,725,228 5,213,415 4,059,287 3,073,798 3,821,052 4,665,329 17,052,380 65,556,889 15,185,415 16,715,353 160,580,099
2089 9,436,545 7,500,389 7,261,781 4,562,130 3,997,469 3,081,004 2,977,857 4,410,207 19,236,919 17,066,762 13,012,365 31,617,008 124,160,437
2090 8,835,185 6,157,678 6,169,428 4,118,186 9,529,602 3,272,437 2,664,457 9,521,845 29,291,524 78,140,377 39,331,525 20,699,960 217,732,205
2091 16,681,325 11,742,262 10,113,536 7,725,546 8,261,230 9,850,506 8,181,696 5,445,031 44,991,877 36,783,451 57,354,364 20,676,025 237,806,850
2092 16,248,117 10,761,723 9,068,582 9,818,324 7,035,432 5,759,722 3,756,115 3,870,010 51,749,730 45,621,001 16,948,491 11,713,738 192,350,984
2093 9,017,309 7,183,686 5,660,239 4,683,812 8,292,199 3,218,910 2,603,912 2,049,915 31,303,944 19,958,466 28,853,838 15,790,159 138,616,389
2094 11,984,124 6,837,749 6,498,687 5,421,091 13,907,101 4,330,336 3,601,746 2,750,217 10,692,659 76,553,306 45,448,936 20,925,692 208,951,644
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wt ngănĕm 2095 14,735,122 9,938,984 11,992,413 17,945,622 15,263,236 7,002,895 6,692,063 17,919,841 12,623,158 16,793,740 18,134,227 9,856,952 158,898,254
2096 5,969,846 4,271,971 4,615,438 2,875,766 14,828,455 3,634,963 2,914,130 19,444,089 19,886,110 54,374,253 53,687,995 23,805,561 210,308,577
2097 14,490,259 10,321,788 10,658,334 7,615,619 13,188,783 6,402,922 4,594,061 15,582,796 36,163,252 23,779,707 13,305,703 10,137,233 166,240,458
2098 6,674,019 5,395,986 6,014,578 3,317,406 2,758,207 2,031,995 1,949,049 1,591,675 15,482,229 25,438,217 14,173,356 12,280,631 97,107,345
2099 8,907,174 8,175,601 4,404,439 4,058,630 23,814,460 19,599,116 11,139,498 6,177,182 20,422,790 23,419,272 30,514,048 11,883,261 172,515,469
QCĐ 11,197,522 8,035,207 7,278,729 5,977,020 8,867,851 7,023,442 4,660,520 9,654,132 22,625,673 51,563,164 27,632,533 17,011,866 181,527,660
3.4.ă Đánhă giáă k tă qu ă nh h ngă BĐKHă đ nă l uă v că h ă ch aă n cV că Tròn :
- Nhìn vào b ng 3.13 và hình 3.12, ta có thể th y,ăl uăl ngătrungăbìnhăthángăl uă v c h V căTrònăkhiăxétăđ năBĐKHătheoăk ch b năRCPă4.5ăcóăxuăh ngătĕngă m nhăvƠoăcácăthángă9,ă10,ă11ăvƠă12;ătĕngănhẹ vƠoăcácăthángă01ăđ n tháng 8.
T ngăl ng dòng ch y mùa kiệt từ tháng 01 t i tháng 9 chi m 30% t ngăl ng dòng ch yănĕm.
- B ng 3.14 và hình 3.13, cho ta th y,ăl uăl ngătrungăbìnhăthángăl uăv c h V căTrònăkhiăxétăđ năBĐKHătheoăk ch b năRCPă8.5ăcóăxuăh ngătĕngăm nh vào thángă10,ă11,ă12;ătĕngănhẹvƠoăcácăthángă01ăđ n tháng 9. T ngăl ng dòng ch y mùa kiệt từ tháng 01 t i tháng 9 chi m 32% t ngăl ng dòng ch yănĕm.
- V i c 2 k ch b năBĐKHăthìăl uăl ngătrungăbìnhănĕmăc aăcácăgiaiăđo năđ u tĕng,ăm căđ tĕngăd năgiaiăđo năsauăcaoăh năgiaiăđo nătr c.ăĐặc biệt,ăgiaiăđo n cu i th kỷ 2080-2099ătĕngăm nhăvƠoămùaălũăcácăthángă10,ă11,ă12ăvƠăgi m m nh vào mùa kiệt từ thángă02ăđ n tháng 8 so v iăgiaiăđo n gi a th kỷ 2046-2065.
Bảng . 31: L u l ng mô ph ng l u v c h V c Tròn theo k ch b n RCP4.5 Q(m3/s)
Tr m Giai
đo n
Trung bình mùa ki t
Trung bình
mùaălũ
Trung bìnhănĕm
L uăv c h V c Tròn
1986-2005 2.36 8.52 4.42
2016-2035 2.72 9.62 5.02
2046-2065 2.82 10.00 5.21
2080-2099 2.67 10.19 5.17
B ng 3. 32:ă L u l ng mô ph ng l u v c h V c Tròn theo k ch b n RCP8.5 Q(m3/s)
Tr m Giaiăđo n Trung bình
mùa ki t
Trung bình mùaălũ
Trung bình nĕm
L uăv c h V c Tròn
1986-2005 2.36 8.52 4.42
2016-2035 2.66 9.03 4.79
2046-2065 2.85 9.92 5.21
2080-2099 2.99 11.25 5.74
Bảng . 33: L u l ng trung bình năm l u v c h V c Tròn khi xét đ n BĐK(
Giaiăđo n
K ch b n 2016-2035 2046-2065 2080-2099
RCP4.5 (m3/s) 5.02 5.21 5.17
RCP 8.5 (m3/s) 4.79 5.21 5.74
K TăLU NăVÀăKI NăNGH
*ăK tălu n
1. K t qu nghiên c uăđưăápăd ng mô hình MIKE NAM k t h p v i k ch b n BĐKHăvƠăn c biển dâng cho Việt Nam c a B TƠiănguyênăvƠăMôiătr ngănĕmă 2016ăđưăđánhăgiáăđ c dòng ch yănĕm, đ năl uăv c h V c Tròn ng v i các k ch b năBĐKHăđưăđ c B TƠiănguyênăvƠăMôiătr ng khuy n ngh .
2. Dòng ch yăđ năl uăv c h V căTrònăcóăxuăh ngătĕng.ăTĕngănhẹ vào mùa kiệt cácăthángă01ăđ năthángă9ăvƠătĕngăm nhăvƠoămùaălũălƠăthángă10ăđ n tháng 12.ăĐặc biệtălƠăgiaiăđo n cu i th kỷ từnĕmă2080-2099.
3. Dòng ch yătrênăl uăv c h V căTrònăd iătácăđ ng c aăBĐKH s thayăđ i không ngừng, nhu c uădùngăn c ngày càng tĕng cao, quy ho ch xây d ngăđôă th không h p lý. D báo trongăt ngălaiăkh nĕngăthi uăn c trong mùa kiệt và x y ra ngh p l t trongămùaălũălƠăr t cao.
*ăKi năngh
1.ăĐể có thể gi m thiểuătácăđ ng c aăBĐKHăđ năTNNăl uăv c sông Ròon, c n thi t ph iăđẩy m nh công tác quy ho chăl uăv căsôngătrongăđóăxemăxétălòngă ghép v năđ thích ng v iăBĐKHăvƠoăcác quy ho ch phát triểnătrênăl uăv c.
2.ăBĐKHăcóăthểlƠmăgiaătĕngăcácăhiệnăt ng khí h u c căđoan.ăVìăv y, c n ph i có s quanătơmăđặc biệtăđể thích ng v iăBĐKH,ăxơyăd ngăcácăđ án nhằmăđ i phó v iăBĐKH,ăđ m b o cung c păn căcũngănh ăphòngălũătrongăt ngălai.
3. H ch aăn c V c tròn là công trình th y l i có quy mô l n,ăđ c xây d ng từ nh ngănĕmăđ u 80 c a th kỷ tr c. Mặc dù còn nhi u t n t i,ănh ngătừ khi đ aăvƠoăv năhƠnhăkhaiăthácăđ nănayăch aăđ c nâng c p sửa ch a,ăđ ngh có ph ngăánănơngăc p sửa ch a.ăĐể khai thác có hiệu qu ngu năn c t nhiên sông Roòn, ph c v k ho ch phát triển kinh t xã h i c a huyện Qu ng Tr ch nói riêng, t nh Qu ng Bình nói chung.
4. Nên thi t k hệ th ng ph n m m và lắpăđặt thêm các tr măđoăl uăl ng,ăm a,ă th c đoăn c t đ ngătrênăl uăv căđể ph c v cho công tác d báo, tính toán th yăvĕn,ăv năhƠnhăđi u ti t công trình an toàn hiệu qu , nh tălƠătrongămùaăm aă lũ.
5. Nghiên c u ch m iăđánhăgiáăđ c dòng ch y đ n h V c Tròn theo k ch b n BĐKH.ăDoăkh iăl ng nghiên c u khá l n và th i gian không cho phép nên tác gi ch aăđánhăgiáăđ c nhu c uădùngăn c, cân bằngăn c và ph n thi t l p mô hình v năhƠnhăđi u ti t h ch aăn c V c Tròn.
TÀIăLI UăTHAMăKH O
Ti ngăVi t
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Ti ngăAnh
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