2. Description of the Mekong Basin
2.3.2. Mekong Basin populations for 2000 and 2030
Our estimate of total populations for the Mekong basin for 2000 estimated from SEDAC data is ~ 58 million. The estimate for the Lower Mekong Basin is ~ 52 million, comparable to the population reported in 2003 as 55 million (MRC 2003).
Our estimates of 2030 populations using the two approaches are quite different.
Using the UNPD growth rates, our estimate of total basin population in 2030 is ~64 million, compared with ~ 111 million using the SEDAC data and method. Population projections for the Lower Mekong Basin are ~ 59 million for the UNDP based
estimates, and ~ 104 million for the SEDAC based estimates. The difference in these estimates arises primarily from the different growth rates applied. The higher population estimate of ~ 111 million results from the application of past growth rates which were positive for both urban and rural populations. In contrast, UNDP growth rates show differential responses in rural and urban populations. In all of the
countries of the basin except Cambodia, negative growth rates are projected for rural populations for some intervals between 2000 and 2030 (Table 2.2). In contrast, urban populations are projected to increase in all countries throughout this thirty year period. Since our analyses for 2000 shows that urban populations account for only 9% of the total population, the future estimate for 2030 shows only modest growth using this approach. The disparity in the two estimates may also arise because UNDP growth rates are based on country level data. There may be regional
differences in growth rates within a country, with the portion within the Mekong Basin responding differently to the country-wide growth rate. The SEDAC based estimates of 2030 population were used in future (2030) analyses of impacts of climate change, since this estimate was closer to other published population projections for the basin.
For example, the Mekong River Commission estimates the population to increase to 90 million by 2025 (MRC 2003).
There is large variability between catchments of the basin in both urban and rural populations in 2000, and in projected populations in 2030 (Figure 2.9). Our analyses show that the population will increase in all catchments of the basin by 2030, with urban populations generally showing greater growth than rural populations. There is great variation between catchments in both the total population and population densities (Figure 2.1) in 2030. Population density in catchments of the basin ranges from ~8 people/km2 in the Upper Mekong to ~460 people/km2 in the Delta in 2000.
Population growth is the greatest in the catchments towards the south of the basin (Tonle Sap, Phnom Penh, Border and Delta). By 2030, the variation between catchments in population density is estimated to be more extreme, with 11 catchments having low population density (< 100 people/km2), whilst population density in the downstream delta catchment reaches ~1800 people/km2.
2000 population (SEDAC)
0 2 4 6 8 10
Upper Mekon g
Chiang S aen
Moung Nouy Luang Pr
abang Vientiane
Tha Ngon
Nakhon Phanom Mukdahan
Ban Ken g Done
Yasothon Ubo
n Ratch athani
Pakse Se San
Kratie Tonle Sa
p
Phnom Penh Border
Delta
population (miilion people)
rural urban
2030 population (UNDP)
0 10 20 30 40
Upper Me
kong Chiang Saen
Moung No uy
Luang Prabang Vientiane
Tha Ng on
Nakhon P han
om Mukdahan
Ban Keng Done
Yasothon Ubon Ra
tchathani Pakse Se San
Kratie Tonle S
ap
Phnom Penh
Border Delta
population (million people) rural
urban
2030 population (SEDAC)
0 10 20 30 40
Upper Mekong Chiang
Saen Moung Nouy
Luang Prabang Vientiane
Tha Ng on
Nakhon Phano m
Mukdahan Ban K
eng Done Yasothon
Ubon Ratc hathani
Pakse Se San
Kratie Tonle Sap
Phnom Penh
Border Delta
population (million people)
rural urban
Figure 2.9. Urban and rural population in 2000 and future (2030) populations
estimated using UNDP and SEDAC growth rates for catchments of the Mekong Basin.
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Upper Mekong Chiang Saen
Moung Nouy Luang Praba
ng Vientiane
Tha N gon
Nakhon Phanom
Mukdaha n
Ban Keng Done
Yasothon Ubon R
atchathani Pakse
Se San Kratie
Ton le Sap
Phnom Penh Border
Delta
population density (people/km2) 2000
2030
Figure 2.10. Population density in 2000 and projected (SEDAC) population density in 2030 for catchments of the Mekong Basin.
3. CLIMATE ANALYSES