The PAD review found a number of important linkages relating to population: In each country:
1. protected areas tend to fall in the least populated locations (Map 1.3);
2. protected areas are situated in regions of medium to high poverty;
3. there is increasing migration towards protected areas and regions of biodiversity wealth; and,
4. there is a direct correlation between population density and the level of community pressure on protected areas.
Map 1.3: Population density and protected areas
At a regional level, population becomes a key driver for natural resource consumption patterns and international relations. Cambodia and Lao PDR with close to 50 per cent of the lower Mekong’s quality forests and much of its water and hydropower potential have a shared population of just 19 million surrounded by 230 million people who are experiencing increasing resource scarcity and demand (Table 1.7). Since the 1960s populations have doubled and may double again before levelling out over the next 50 years. Cambodia and Lao PDR are facing a future in which the populations of their neighbours - Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and Yunnan province - will reach 3-400 million within several decades. The pressure is great on the Mekong nations to exploit their resources (and those of their neighbours) to cater for growing demand.
1.4.1 Population distribution
Populations in the region are not evenly distributed. For example, in Cambodia 80 per cent live in 20 per cent of the land area largely concentrated in southern portion of Mekong basin. Similarly in Vietnam populations concentrate in 27 per cent of the country mainly in the Red River and Mekong River Deltas (Map 1.3), which are devoted to paddy cultivation. The Red River Delta has one of the highest population densities in Asia at 1000/km2.
There is a very good reason for these population concentrations – they are directly linked to available natural resources such as soils, water and fish and the natural systems which maintain and enrich them.
Generally, protected areas have not been established in these regions of traditional high population density. Most protected areas are relatively isolated and located in areas of low population density - but this is changing.
As populations grow and local resources come under stress through excessive exploitation and disruption, people are forced to move. It is not only local resource constraints changing population dynamics. The relationship between population concentrations and movement and management of upstream
ecosystems is critical but poorly understood. For example, it is estimated that 50 per cent of the
fluctuation in low land rice yield in Vietnam is attributable to disruption of natural water regulation due to upstream forest loss (Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam 1995).
Table 1.7: Demographic features of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam (2003)
Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia
Cambodia Lao PDRLao PDRLao PDRLao PDRLao PDR ThailandThailandThailandThailandThailand VietnamVietnamVietnamVietnamVietnam
Population (millions) 13 5.9 64 81.6
Growth rate % 1.8% 2.5% 1.0% 1.3%
% rural/mountain 85% 83% 70% 75%
Yunnan Province in China has a population of 42 million and growth rate of 1.2 per cent. Myanmar’s population is 42.5 million and growth rate of 0.5 per cent. Source: CIA 2003
1.4.2 Migration
People are moving seasonally and permanently in increasing numbers. The migrant population in Cambodia is 31.5 per cent and rural to rural migration remains the most common at around 70 per cent of the total (ICEM 2003a). As densities in the delta region increase, for example, people are moving west along the coast and into regions of biodiversity wealth and complexes of protected areas. More people are living in and around PAs. Elsewhere in the country the story is similar. The protected areas on the western border in Battambong and Pallin provinces have very high population densities largely due to recent immigration.
In Vietnam the most notable migration of the last decade has been from the heavily populated north, especially the Red River Delta region, down to the central highlands. Districts around Yok Don National Park in Dak Lak Province experienced population growth rates of 14 per cent annually, compared to the 1.3 per cent national average and equivalent to some of the fastest growing urban centres in the country.
During the decade from 1992, the overall provincial population grew 231 per cent.
Over the same period, just south of Dak Lak, the population in the buffer zone of Cat Tien National Park grew 34 per cent or 3.4 per cent annually (Polet et al. 2003).
As Thailand’s population increased, land poor families migrated to forest frontier areas declared as National Reserved Forest. By 1980, an estimated 10 million people, or more than 20 per cent of the country’s villages, were located in these forest regions which included the national protected areas system (ICEM 2003d). For example, following intensive migration from the east of the country, one of the most densely populated regions of Thailand is now bordering Khao Yai, Thaplan and Pangsida National Parks just north west of Bangkok with all the associated challenges of encroachment and illegal resource use.
Protected area managers are confronted with rapidly changing management situations involving community development demands which they are not resourced or skilled to handle. People are increasingly mobile and have growing access to once isolated parts of the country. Infrastructure is expanding to accommodate these growing and mobile populations. The relationship between roads and PAs has become a critical issue in the region. For example, in Vietnam the initial proposal for the Ho Chin Minh Highway now under construction passed through 13 protected areas. This major field of
development alone requires that the economic values and benefits of PAs in local and national economies are better understood.
1.4.3 The population - natural resource equation
Over the past few decades in all countries, there has been a clearly identifiable set of relationships linking populations and natural resources and fuelling development and pressure on protected areas. They are intensifying with far reaching implications for the way protected areas need to be viewed and managed (Figure 1.5).
Figure 1.5: The population – natural resource use equation
In short, mounting population leads to agricultural expansion and intensification, increasing pressure on forests, soil and water resources. Intensification also increases demand for energy and chemicals.
Diminishing resource availability fuels migration to towns and cities and areas of biodiversity wealth which in turn leads to further industrialisation and agricultural expansion, and increasing resource demand, encroachment and scarcity. These chains of cause and effect are constraining the capacity of natural systems for renewal and servicing of development and reducing the availability and quality of natural resources.
In situations of rapid population increases protected areas become natural capital banks of last resort, and can quickly degrade without adequate investment.