The interesting question should be specified in this study is that whether the probability of choosing either online shopping or in-store shopping how is impacted by the changes in alternative-specific attributes. The full model estimated by the conditional logit model is used to calculate these probabilities.
Figure 4.2 describes the percentage change in the probability of choosing online shopping of those who are office employees and non-office employees are given by the change in the online purchase price, delivery time and shipping fee, respectively.
Ceteris paribus, with the frequency of accessing the internet of 8.7 hours/ day, the monthly income is VND7.4 million and the value of gender is 0.58, on an average value, the choice probability of online shopping of those who are office worker, is higher than people who are not. And when price increases, this probability decreases. The choice probability of online shopping of those who are office employees, are predicted to change when the purchase price of online shopping changes. If the purchase price of online shopping varies from 50% discounted to the original price down to 30%, then the choice probability of online shopping will be decreased by 10%. In this event, if the purchase price of online shopping continues to change from 30% discounted to the original price down to 10%, then the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease by approximately 12%. In the case of the online purchase price increases 10% compared to the original price, then the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to reduce about 6.6%. Ceteris paribus, for those who are not the office workers, at 50% discounted to the original price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 72%. If the percentage discount of the online purchase price from 50% down to 30%, then the choice probability of online shopping is forecasted to decrease by around 12%. In the case of online purchase price increases 10%
compared to the original price, the choice probability of online shopping will be reduced of 6.2%.
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0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Pr(o) if occ=1 Pr(o) if occ=0
-0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4
The change in purchase price (%) 0,9
0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Pr(o) if occ=1
Pr(o) if occ=0
0 5 10 15
The change in delivery time (days) 0,6
0,5
Pr(o) if occ=1 0,4
0,3 Pr(o) if occ=0
0,2 0,1 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
The change in delivery cost (VND 1000) Probability of online shopping (%)Probability of online shopping (%) Probability of online shopping (%)
Figure 4.2: The percentage change in online shopping probability given the change in purchase price, shipping fee and delivery time.
Note: Occ = 1 is those who are the employees, occ = 0 is those who are not the employees (in this study is students, government officers, housewife and researchers).
In the same manner, the change in delivery time (in days) resulted in the change in online shopping choice probability of those who are the office workers is higher than people who are not employees. Within one day of waiting for the delivery of purchased products, the choice probability of online shopping of those who are the employees, is predicted around 76%. Meanwhile, the delivery time increases 3 days, then the choice probability of those who are the employees, is predicted to decrease of 50.5%. If the time of waiting for the delivery of purchased products increases to over 7 days, the choice of probability of those who are the employees, is forecasted to reduce of lower than 17%. For those who are not the office workers, within 1 day of waiting for the delivery of purchased products, then the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 69%. If the delivery time increases 3 days, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to reduce by 40%. If the delivery time increases to over 7 days, the choice of probability is forecasted to reduce of lower than 12%.
Ceteris paribus, the change in shipping fee (in thousand VND), the choice probability of online shopping of those who are office workers is higher than that of people who are not. However, one thousand VND increase in the delivery cost, decreases the predicted choice probability of online shopping of those who are the office workers as well as non- office workers by 0.5%.
Figure 4.3 shows the percentage change in probability of choosing online shopping of those who have the frequency of accessing the internet given the change in the online purchase price, delivery time and shipping fee. The frequency of accessing the internet in this case includes three levels, “1 = 1 hour/ day”; “2 = 5 hours/ day” and “3 = 10 hours/ day”.
Other things unchanged, with the value of gender is 0.58, the monthly income is VND7.4 million and the value of occupation is 0.31, on an average value. The change in the online purchase price, delivery time and delivery cost, those who have the frequency of internet access is 10 hours/day, the choice probability of online shopping is highest, next is those who have the frequency of internet access is 5 hours/day, and the choice probability of online shopping is lowest of those who have the frequency of internet access of 1 hour/day.
0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Pr(o) if Freq=1 Pr(o) if Freq=5 Pr(o) if Freq=10
-0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4
The change in purchase price (%) 0,8
0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Pr(o) if Freq=1 Pr(o) if Freq=5 Pr(o) if Freq=10
0 5 10 15
The change in delivery time (days)
0,6 Pr(o) if Freq=1
0,5
Pr(o) if Freq=5 0,4
0,3 Pr(o) if Freq=10
0,2 0,1 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
The change in delivery cost (VND 1000) Probability of online shopping (%)Probability of online shopping (%) Probability of online shopping (%)
Figure 4.3: The percentage change in online shopping probability given the change in purchase price, shipping fee and delivery time.
Note: Freq = 1 is the frequency of accessing the internet at 1hour/day; freq = 2 is the frequency of accessing the internet at 5 hours/day and freq = 3 is the frequency of accessing the internet at 10 hours/day.
For those who have the frequency of accessing internet of 1 hour/day, the online purchase price discounts 50% compared to the original price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 60.6%. However, if the online purchase price changes from 50%
discounted to the original price down to 20%, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to reduce of 19.7%, at the 20% discounted level to orifinal price, the choice probability is 40.9%. In the case of the online purchase price increases 10% compared to the original price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease by 23.8%.
For those who have the frequency of accessing internet of 5 hours/day, the online purchase price discounts 50% compared to the original price, the choice probability of online shopping is 68%. With the original online purchase price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease by 36%. In the case of increasing in online purchase price 10% compared to the original price, the probability of online shopping is predicted to reduce of 30%.
For those who have the frequency of accessing internet of 10 hours/day, the online purchase price discounts 50% compared to the original price, the choice probability of online shopping is 76.5%. With the original online purchase price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 46%. In the case of increasing in online purchase price 10%
compared to the original price, the probability of online shopping is predicted to reduce of 39.8%.
For those who have the frequency of accessing internet of 1 hour/day, ceteris paribus, within one day of waiting for the delivery of purchased products, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 57%. If the waiting time for the delivery of purchased products increases 3 days, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease of approximately 29%. In the case of delivery time increases over 7 days, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted lower than 7.7%. In the same manner, those who have the frequency of accessing internet of 5 hours/day, ceteris paribus, within one day of waiting for the delivery of purchased products, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 65%. If the waiting time for the delivery of purchased products increases 3 days, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease of 36%. If delivery time increases over 7 days, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease lower than 10%. Those who have the frequency of accessing internet of 10
hours/day, ceteris paribus, within one day of waiting for the delivery of purchased products, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 74%. If the delivery time increases to 3 days, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to reduce to 46%. In the case of delivery time over 7 days, the choice probability of online shopping will decrease by 15%.
One thousand VND increase of the shipping fee, ceteris paribus, the choice probability of online shopping of those who have the frequency of accessing internet is 1 hour/day, is predicted to decrease 0.4%. Meanwhile, those have the frequency of accessing internet is 5 hours/day and 10 hours/day, one thousand VND increase of the shipping fee, ceteris paribus, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to decrease 0.5%.
The percentage change in probability of choosing online shopping of those who are female and male given the change in the online purchase price, delivery time and shipping fee, which is shown in Figure 4.4. The other things are constant, with the value of internet access frequency is 8.73, the monthly income is VND7.4 million and the value of occupation is 0.31, on an average value.
Given the change in online purchase price (in percentage), delivery time (in days) and shipping fee (in VND 1000), the choice probability of those who are female is higher than those who are male. For those who are female, if the online purchase price discounts 50%
compared to the original price, then the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to be 75%. At the original online purchase price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to be 45%. When online purchase price increase by 10%, the choice probability of online shopping will be reduced of 38%. For those who are male, ceteris paribus, if the online purchase price discounts 50% compared to the original price, then the choice probability of online shopping is predicted of 73%. At the original online purchase price, the choice probability of online shopping is predicted to be 42%. When online price increase by 10%, the choice probability of online shopping will be reduced of 35%.
In the same manner, within one day of waiting for the delivery of purchased products, the choice probability of online shopping of those who are female, is predicted of 72%, while, those who are male is lower, at 70%. If the delivery time is 3 days, then those who are female have the choice probability of online shopping of 45%, and those who are male is 42%. In the case of the delivery time over 7 days, the choice probability of online shopping of those who are female is predicted by 14%, and 13% for male shoppers.
0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Pr(o) if gender=1
Pr(o) if gender=0
-0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4
The change in purchase price (%) 0,8
0,7 0,6
0,5 Pr(o) if gender=1
0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Pr(o) if gender=0
0 5 10 15
The change in delivery time (days) 0,6
0,5
Pr(o) if gender=1 0,4
0,3 Pr(o) if gender=0
0,2 0,1 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
The change in shipping fee (VND 1000) Probability of online shopping (%)Probability of online shopping (%) Probability of online shopping (%)
Figure 4. 4: The percentage change in online shopping probability given the change in purchase price, shipping fee and delivery time.
Note: gender = 1 is the respondents are female and gender = 2 is the respondents are male.
Regarding shipping fee, one thousand VND increase of the shipping fee, then the choice probability of those who are female and male is predicted to reduce at the same value of 0.5%, ceteris paribus.