3.1Dfr li(u (Data)
Phan nay mo ta ciic dti li(u dupc str dung trong hoi quy tang truérig. Bién kiéu hoi dupc xay ding trong bai nghién ctiu nay dupc lay gia dang ph:it trién trong giai doan tir nam 1995 den nam 2012. Tiéu chi de chpn c:ic quoc gia nay la cac quoc gia dang ph:it trién co thu nhap thap va trung binh
du:etc chpn mot c:ich ngau nhién o c:ic vilng, lanh tho khiic nhau, trong do co Vi(t Nam. Tuy nhién ciic quoc gia dupc chpn phiii dam bao day du dii li(u
doi vcii tiing bién va dupe ca(p nhat dii 1i(u moi nhat cé› the (den nam 2012). Cac quoc gia thfia man tiéu chi nay da duoc chpn lam mau quan sat bao
2. Bangladesh 3. Belize 4. Benin
5. Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 6. Botswana
7. Brazil 8. Cambodia 9. Cameroon
11.Colombia 12.Dominica , 13.Ecuador 14.Egypt 15.El Salvador 16.Ghana 17.Grenada 18.Guatemala 19.Guyana 20.India 21.Indonesia 22.Jordan 23.Kenya
24.Lao People's Dem. Rep. 25.Lesotho 26.Mali 27.Morocco 28.Nepal 29.Pakistan 30.Panama 3 l .Paraguay
34.Senegal 35.South Africa 36.Sri Lanka 37.Sudan 38.Thailand 39.Tunisia 40.Vietnam
Trong bai nghién ctni cfia tiic gi:i Giuliano Paola ciing ve de tai Kiéu hoi,
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phat trien tai chinh va tang truong, ta thay bien l‹ieu hoi the hien mpt su cai tien hon trong chuoi kieu hoi hi(n ii o nhieu khia canh. C:ie nghién cfru truoc day thuéng su dung mot dinh nghia rong cua kiéu hoi la bao gom ba muc sau day trong Nién Giiim Thong Ké cén can thanh toiin cua IMF (BOPSY):
fi Kiéu hoi ciia nguoi lao dong 4 Thu nhap cfia nh n vién
4 Chuyén tién cho muc dich di cu Chi tiét dinh nghia cfia timg yéu to trén nhu sau:
Trii nhfmg truéing hpp dupc chi dinh kh:ic, thong thuéing kiéu hoi bang tong cua ba hang rnuc trong IMF’s Balance of Payment Statistics Yearbook (BOPSY)
gom co: “Kiéu hoi ctia cfing nh n”, “Tién luong ciia nhan vién” v:i “Chuyén tién di cu”.
fi Kiéu hfii ciia cfing nhén (mo( t bo pha)n ctia chuyén tién vang lai trong tai khoan viing lai) la dong tién dupc chuyén ve nuoc theo phuong thtrc chuyén tién v rig lai boi nhting nguoi dan di cu hoa)c da dinh cu hi(n dang sinh song va 1ém vi(c o mot quoc gia khiic. Nguon lao dong nity di cu den mot nén kinh té kh:ic va o lai ho)ac vpng dupe ‹ lai lém vi(c, sinh song ii quoc gia dé› mot nam tro ten ho)ac lau hon.
fi Tién luong cua nhan vién (mot bo phan cua th nh phan thu nh(ap trong tai khoén viing lai) bao gom tién luong, tién cfing va nhiing khoan thu nhap khiic (tién ma)t ho)ac hi(n vat) cua nhting nguoi lao dong khfing thuéng trtl lam vi(c cho nguoi dan ctia mot quoc gia kh:ic. Nhiing ngu‹ii lao dong n:iy bao gom nhiing ngu6i lao dong ci bién gioi va lao dong theo thcii vp, ciing voi mot so loai kh:ic chang han nhu nhan vién dat su qu:in dia phuong, .
fi Chuyén tién di cu (mot bo phan cua tai khoiin von) bao gom cite chi tiéu tai chinh ph:it sinh tu vi(c chuyén doi, thay doi not en trti tir mot nén kinh té nay sang mot nén kinh Ie kh:ie, o quoc gia khac.
Theo BOPSY, mot v:ii quoc gia sé cé› the loai yéu to nay, ho)ac yéu to kh:ic ra khoi tong kiéu hoi. Vi du mot so quoc gia sé khfing tinh phan Tién luong cua nhan vién vao tong kiéu hoi nhu: Argentina, Azerbaijan, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Brazil, Cambodia, Cape Verde, China, Cote d'Ivoire, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, .
Vi(c su dung dinh nghia nay o di(n rong sé phiit sinh rih ro trong dong tién, chang han nhu thu nhap ciia nguoi dan dia phuong dang lam vi(c cho Dar Sri Qu:in va cite to chuc quoc té, thi lai khong phu hpp voi quan diem rang kiéu
tiéu chuan khfing d:inh gia dting dupc dong tién thuc. Vi nhfing 1y do do nén tac gia Giuliano P., da quyét dinh ap dung mot phuong ph:ip do lu6ng kiéu hoi cu the theo quoc gia, ma no thi trai ngupc voi phuong ph:ip do lu6ng tiéu chuan.
Giuliano Paola da tién hénh nhu sau, truoc tién sé xem xét va d:inh gi:i timg quoc gia voi nhtiiig di|nh nghia v:i mo ta chi tiét ve phuong phiip uoc lupng co trong BOPSY. Sau dé› sé tién hinh loai nhiing quoc gia khfing dann bao du diéu ki(n dénh gia dupc dong kiéu hoi. Buoc thu hai la de uoc tinh chinh xac dong tién va cé› dupc dti 1i(u cua nhieu nuoc cho nghién ciiu, nhé›m cite nha nghién nay da lien lac voi IMF va chinh quyen dJa phuong ciia cac nuoc. Bang vi(c lien lac nay thong thuéing sé thu nhan duoc
nhieu thong tin hon, so lieu chinh xiic hon va khoang thoi gian cua dti li(u ciing dai hon. Trong tru6ng hpp c:ic nuoc duoc ghi chu trong BOPSY khfing dii khii ning dénh giii dupc dong kiéu hoi do luéing nhu the n:to thi hp ciing co the lam ro ve dinh nghia va phan loai kiéu hoi du‹ i ciic hang mpc c:in can thanh toiin khac nhau. Nhting car tién bo sung nay da lain tang them phan y nghia chinh x:ie cua mau va ciii thi(n chat lupng mau mot ciich diing ké.
, Day la mot phuong thirc thu thap mau rat cai tién va huéing den su chinh xac rat cao. Tuy nhién hi(n tai, vcii su phiit trién ctia khoa hpc va ciic ng nh thong ké, chung ta co cc so dti li(u tuong doi tin cay ciia IMF, WB, . . . de std dpng cho muc dich nghién c ri. Vi vay, trong biii nghién cfru nay tfii chpn 40 quoc gia dang phat trién cé› thu nhap thap va trung binh voi so 1i(u ctia kiéu hoi duoc ca(p nhat moi trong giai doan In nam 1995 den nam 2012 lay tu nguon
IMF's Balance of Payments Manual . Voi phuong thfrc nay, tfii cé› the tiét ki(m
ducic thoi gian thu thap v:i xii ly dii 1i(u, dci ng thoi ciing davn bao tinh chinh x:ic
cua dii 1i(u thong ké dung cho vi(c chay mo hinh hoi quy. Tuy nhién, diéu nay lai khfing du‹ic chi tiét va chu diio nhu tac gia Giuliano Paola. Day ciing la mot han che nho ciia Hi so voi tiic gia.
Tat ca c:ic hoi quy trong bai déu su dung 1( kiéu hoi so voi GDP (REM/GDP) de the hi(n muc do tang tru6ng va dti 1i(u duqc chpn de hoi quy theo kieu dii li(u bang (Panel Data). Dti li(u Bang the hi(n dupc ca binh di(n thoi gian ciing nhu khfing gian voi nhiirig uu diem nhu: co the xem xét den tinh di bi(t cua dii 1i(u bang ciich xem xét ciic bién thu theo timg cii nhan; cung cap nhieu thong tin hon, da dang hon, it cong tuyén hon gifia ciic bién so, nhieu b(ac tp do hon va hi(u qua hon; phu hpp voi tinh dong cua thay doi; phiit hi(n va do luéing tot hon nhiing :inh huéng; toi thieu hé›a su thién 1(ch co the xiiy ra. Tom lai, dti 1i(u béng co the lam phong phu ciic phan tich thuc nghi(m theo nhiing ciich thuc, mo hinh phiic tap hon ma néu ta chi std dung dii 1i(u theo chuoi thcii gian hay khfing gian thuan tuy thi khong thé dat dupc.
Dinh nghia vé kiéu hoi trong bai nghién ctfu khfing bao gom kiéu hoi thong qua nhung kénh khong chinh thuc nhu la kiéu hoi hi(n va)t ho)ac tién duoc chuyén ve thong qua ban be hoa)c nguoi nha hay la thong qua h( thong chuyén tién khong chinh thuc (gpi 1:i Hawala). Kiéu hoi khfing chinh thuc uoc tinh rat cao, khoiing tit 10% — 50% kho:ing kiéu hoi chting ta ghi nhan dupc. Tuy nhién, thiii gian gan day, voi nhting no luc chong lai nan rtia tién ciing da lam giam d:ing ké kho:in kiéu hoi khfing hpp ph:ip nay. Do do, ciic du 1i(u thu thap duoc cé› the tin tuéng dé sir dung cho nghién ciiu.
quoc gia o nén, bao gom ciic kho:in tién gfri khfing han cua c:ic ng n hang ii ngan h rig quoc gia va tién giay ciing nhu tién kim loai trong luu hénh. Lupng tién nay chiu iinh huéng trpc tiep cua ngan hang quoc gia. Lupng tién MI bao gom M0 va cite tién co the sfi dung lam phuong ti(n thanh to:in tuc la tién ma)t. Lupng tién M2 bao gom lupng tién MI vii cite khoan tién gtii tiét ki(m co han ducii 4 nam. M2/GDP 1:i mot trong bon yéu to dupc chpn 1:inn dai di(n cho phiit trién tai chinh.
Thii hat la tong cac khoan tién gtii: khfing ky han, co han, gtii tiét ki(m, gtii ngoai I( chia cho GDP (DEP/GPP). No d giii khii nang cua cac ng n héng trong vi(ec thu hut tiét ki(m tai chinh va khii nang cung cap phuong ti(n tich liiy cé› tinh thanh khoan.
Thii ba la bién cé› lien quan den linh vuc tu nhan chia cho GDP (LOAN/GDP).
Né› d:inh gi:i muc
do( ma khu c tu nhan dira vao ngan hang de Hi trci cho tiéu
dung, von luu do( ng va dau tu.
Cuoi c’ung la tin d g duoc cung cap boi h( thong ngan héng so voi GDP (CREDIT/GDP). Yéu to nay do lu6ng muc do trung gian du‹ c tien hanh boi h( thong ngan hang, bao gom ca tin dung cho khu vuc nha nuoc va tu nhan. Dii 1i(u Dié'nn dan thuong mai va phiit trién Lien
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Trong buoc hoi quy dau tién, bién phq thuoc la toc do tang truéng ciia dau ra, dupc do luérig bang toc do tang triréng cua GDP thuc binh qufin dau ngucii tinh bang dfi la. Cac bién kiém so:it bao gom:
fi Lam phat (Inflation) dupc do bang su thay doi ti 1( phan tram hang nam trong chi so gia tiéu diing.
• fi Mo ctia thuong mai quoc té (Openness) duoc dinh nghia 1:i ti 1( cua tong
xuat khau va nha)p khau chia cho tong dau ra.
fi Nguon nh n luc duoc do bang trung binh so nam hpc cap hai (trung hpc) (Years of Education).
fi Ciin cén ngén s:ich nh:i nuoc (Fiscal Balance GDP) ducic dinh nghia la ti 1e cfia c:in cén ngén siich nha nuoc doi voi GDP
fi Ti 1( dau tu (Investment/GDP) bang tich liiy tai san co dJnh rong chia cho GDP.
fi V:i cuoi cling la tang truéng dan so (Population Growth)
Tat ca cite bien kiém soiit déu dupc dupc lay Logarit tu nhién (ln) ngoai trii bién Inflation va Fiscal Balance. Lay Logarit nham muc dich giam su bién dong cua ciic bién do thoi gian thay doi v:i ciing la do c:ic bién co ciic don vi tinh khac nhau, trénh phuong sai thay doi, hi(n tupng da cong tuyén va hoi quy phuong trinh dupc tot hon.
Bang duoi trinh bay tom lupc ve cac bién nghién cfru va nguon dii li(u thong ké:
Growth
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Remittances GDP
Kiéu hoi dupc dinh nghia la tong cua 3 thénh to. Chi tiet trong php luc 1
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Investment/GDP
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Fiscal
Balance GDP
Can cén ngén sach ctia chinh quyen trung uong so véii GDP
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Openness
Xuat khau cong Nhap khau so voi GDP
Nguon: UNCTAD, UNCTADStat
(Goods and services trade openness, annual, 1980-2012)
Inflation
Phan trém thay doi thu6ng nién trong CPI
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Population Growth
Lay Log su khiic nhau trong dan so
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Year of Education
Nguon nh n luc dupc do bang trung binh so n in hpc cap hai (trung hpc)
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Loans GDP Ciic khoan tin dpng cua khu vpc tu nhan chia cho GDP
M2/GDP
M2 la tién r(ong. M2 = M1+ ciic khoan tién gtii tiét ki(m cé› h duoi 4 nam
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Deposits/GDP
Yéu to nay do luéng tong ciic khoan tién gui: khfing han, co han, gui tiét ki(m, gfri ngoai t( chia cho GDP
Nguon: World Development Indicators, World Bank va datamarket.com/data
Bring 3.1 Bang tom lupc ve ciic bién nghién elm
3.2Phir‹rng ph:i p nghién cfru
De tim hiéu ve moi quan h( giiia kiéu hoi, ph:it trién Hi chinh va téng
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p(ro
ln› nvgdp
theo chuoi thoi gian) cua 40 quoc gia dang phiit trién trong giai doan tu nam 1995—2012.
Ciic quoc gia dang phiit trién dupc chpn 'u co thu nhap thap va trung binh (dua trén tiéu chi thong ké cua UNCTAD), chpn lua ngau nhién va sau do duqc chpn lpc lai. Tiéu chi lua chpn sé uu tién nhfing quoc gia cé› day dfi thong tin thong ké, diim bao c:ic bién déu co du dii li(u cho cac nam hoa) c néu co thieu thi ciing khfing nhieu. Muc dich de dam bao tinh da dang ctia dii 1i(u, tinh day du nhat cé› the va giiip cho ciic két qua hoi quy dat dupc kha ning cé› y nghia thong ké cao nhat.
1nopenness 706 1.188178 .é888072 2.61776 I .JI2f6#