financial modeling and final valuatio

... Cells C11, F17,andI23 find the sums of the indicator variables in the cells directly above them, C5:C10, F5:F16,andI5:I22, respectively. The cells 42 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ... parameters, the minimum and maximum values. It produces any continuous value between the minimum and maximum with equal likelihood. The 44 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4.9 ... B5, and a forecast chart... logarithm of a random variable is normally distributed, then the variable is lognormally distributed  54 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... Abandon Point of −6 and an Expansion Point of 5 For both Figures 5. 27 and 5. 22, we used four 94 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL different values for Abandon ... of revenue, and (2) variable cost as a percentage of revenue. We assume that average quarterly revenue growth is random and follows a normal distribution with mean = 5 percent, and standard deviation ... to abandon has increased the project’s value Because the mean NPV with abandonment possible is $50 .62, the value of the abandonment option is estimated to be $50 .62... year, and abandon

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... α/2 is the (1 − α/2)100 percentile of the standard normal distribution, s is the Standard Deviation,andn is the number of trials from which the standard error is computed. As discussed in Chapter ... precision of $46,587 was reached in 40,000 trials. 100 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.5 Run Preferences Sampling tab. these random numbers has the capability to produce over ... Uniform(0,1) distribution and be in a completely ‘‘random’’ order, that is, the numbers appear to be serially independent. However, this random order is predetermined and is the same every time

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... statistical 116 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7. 11 Spider chart analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated inputs and outputs calculated ... of ScooterSimulation.xls 118 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL between e1,t and e2,t is 0.8, while the correlation between e1,t and e4,t is −0.8 However, the errors ... year These are Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return 123 normally distributed random variables with means and standard deviations given in columns F and G... require us to do so,

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 11.8 Crystal Ball model on the ‘‘Vector Random Walk’’ worksheet of RandomWalkWithDrift.xls for forecasting a vector time series with a random ... deviations, and correlation for a market return and a stock, as well as showing time-series plots of stock and market prices and a scatterplot of returns 164 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH ... = Si /Si−1 and ri = ln(Ri ) for i = 1, 2, , n 163 Simulating Financial Time Series Using the standard formulas for sample mean and standard deviation, compute r= 1 n n ri and sr = i=1

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... supply and demand cause the price to rise in that market. Similarly, when the arbitrageurs sell the securities in the market with the higher price, the forces of supply and demand 172 FINANCIAL MODELING ... volatility, and Z (i) is a standard normal random variate. The Excel files EuroCall.xls in Figure 12.1 and EuroPut.xls in Figure 12.2 con- tain simulation models for pricing European Call and Put ... banking and brokerage, asset management and custody, corporate lending, insurance, financial investment, and real estate. The drift and volatility parameters were estimated as 11.50 percent and 11.75

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... cash flows from investment 192 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL are: market demand for products and services, labor supply and cost, or materials supply and cost. Exercise price, K. ... Mean: µ Standard... distribution with µL = 2.72 and σL = 1 2 σL 2 µL 220 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL CDF: No closed form Mean: µL = eµ+σ 2 /2 Standard deviation: ... Maximum, the maximum value, b, and integer where −∞ < b < ∞, and a < b See Figure A.10 for an example of this pdf 210 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE A.9 Custom

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... operational planning and financial modeling pursued in tandem The horizontal flow reflects links between key topics 4 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE ... financial modeling tool developed expressly for microfinance institutions The steps in operational planning and financial modeling include: • Defining financial products and ... 10 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK resource for members, or achieving significant outreach and financial selfsufficiency.)

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... only income and FIGURE 3.2 Sample inflation data 42 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK expenses related to financial services operations, and a separate ... addition to their financial services is beyond the scope of the handbook and. .. term 58 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK FAQ 14 ... BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK 3.4.1 Choosing branch, regional, or consolidated projections The choice among branch-level, regional, and consolidated

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK 5.2 .4 Step 4: Review graphs for the loan product FAQ 24 How can...70 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING ... page and then projecting seasonal demand on the Program/Branch page This approach assumes that clients have two active loans, one standard and one seasonal 82 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL ... to formally accredited financial institutions. The decision about whether to formalize is 68 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK one of the most

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK A basic understanding of Microfin’s approach to loan portfolio calculations can be helpful in properly using and interpreting ... PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK FIGURE 6.1 Defining loan loss provisioning rates and write-off frequency as current loans in all ratio calculations, and the ... costs between financial costs and indirect nonfinancial costs. Financial costs include all interest payments on portfolio financing loans and unre- stricted loans. 2 Indirect nonfinancial costs

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... 4.4 Land and building analysis This section allows the analysis of any land and buildings owned by the institution (figure 6. 22) Land is tracked at...118 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL ... sections blank 119 120 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK FIGURE 6. 22 Analyzing land and buildings divided by the number of months ... factored into the financial sustainability calculations generated by Microfin 121 122 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK FIGURE 6.

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... the portfo- lio and the liquidity shortfalls shown in line 5 of the blue band. 138 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK FIGURE 7.11 Modeling the liquidity ... information from the financial statements and portfolio reports and thus help management focus on key operating and financial relationships. This chapter describes the financial statements and performance ... from its financial services and investments, and ultimately reach full financial selfsufficiency From a financial. .. reached and the total amount disbursed 10 The amount and number

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... 156 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK Note 1. The Excel 97 Auto Recalculation Patch is included in ... hidden for unused loan and savings products, the choice of projection mode (consolidated, branch-level, or regional) affects the nomenclature and structure of the pages, and selecting detailed ... Overview and introductory material (p. 159) • Products and services (p. 167) • Program or branch office analysis (p. 171) • Administrative or head office analysis (p. 185) • Financing (p. 201) • Financial

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... Aug -98 9 Sep -98 10 Oct -98 11 Nov -98 12 Dec -98 Land and Building Analysis Land Analysis Purchase and sale of Land Total value of land Building Analysis Total month's acquisition Undepreciated ... 1,271 2,170 1,852 1,360 998 Total Financial Income * 15,346 16,369 16,474 16,950 16,908 16,635 20,022 20,931 23,247 25,246 26,368 27,197 Financial Costs Interest and fees on borrowed funds 2,375 ... Administrative Non- Financial Cost Allocation NOTE: Indirect cost allocation method is selected on the Inst.Cap. page 1 Allocation method (reference) as % of branch direct non -financial expenses

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK Financial management Primary readings CGAP Management Information Systems for Microfinance Institutions: A Handbook ... 226 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK Secondary reading Waterfield, Charles, and Ann Duval CARE Savings and Credit Sourcebook (New ... 217 218 BUSINESS PLANNING AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A HANDBOOK 8 Annual interest rate charged, by month 9 Any up-front and ongoing commissions charged,

Ngày tải lên: 09/08/2014, 19:21

... planting régime, crop protection.  Final monetary payoff is influenced by- harvest age, species type, timber price. 1 Chapter 10: Case Study in Financial Modeling and Simulation of a Forestry ... difficult. Investment Evaluation Criteria The Land Expectation Value(LEV) model is applied in preference to the NPV model. 18 Forestry Modeling  Forestry projects are long term.  Costs and benefits ... control, fertilizing, pruning and thinning, fire and pest protection.  Inflows:- wood; commercial thinning, final harvest non-wood; flora gathering, recreation, land renewal.  Required rate...

Ngày tải lên: 23/03/2014, 04:20

... retail stores and affiliated pro shops. It plans to 28 Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel JOHN CHARNES John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ■ Crystal ... through the examples and generating the output on your computer as you read will help you decide what is best for you and your clients. 26 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.15 ... lognormally distributed with mean $50 and standard deviation $10; variable cost percentage, V, has the beta distribution with parameters minimum = 0%, maximum = 100%, alpha = 2, and beta = 3; and fixed cost, F =...

Ngày tải lên: 18/02/2014, 07:20

... office tenant demand, the ratio of government employment over the sum of the financial, insurance and real estate and service office tenants and the level of occupied stock. McGough and Tsolacos (2002), ... series; ● distinguish between AR and MA processes; ● specify and estimate an ARMA model; ● address seasonality within the regression or ARMA frameworks; and ● produce forecasts from ARMA and exponential smoothing models. 8.1 ... values, and for a stationary series they depend only on the difference between t 1 and t 2 , so that the covariance between y t and y t−1 is the same as the covariance between y t−10 and y t−11 ,...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... recession and low economic growth (the first half of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s) and has fallen in periods of economic expansion (the second half of the 1980s and after Forecast evaluation ... per employee) at time t and u t , e t and v t are the error terms at time t. In this case, there are G = 3 equations and three endogenous variables (Q, ABS and R). EMP and USG are exogenous, so ... measure of physical vacancy and not as a percentage of stock) and GDP is gross domestic product. The αs, βs and γ s are the structural parameters to be estimated, and u t , e t and ε t are the stochastic...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20