extended problems combining forecasting dcf modeling real options and optimization

... Real- Options Growth Matrix 76 2.5 Conclusions 90 Chapter Corporate Real Options 93 3.1 Introduction 93 3.2 Options Valuation 94 3.2.1 Basic Nature of Options 98 3.2.2 From Financial to Real Options ... Introduction: Strategic Investment as Real Options and Games xxiii I.1 Introduction: About This Book xxiii I.2 Real Options and Games: Linking Corporate Finance and Strategy xxiv I.3 An Overview ... Exercising Options in Option-Value Space 75 The Real- Options Growth (ROG) Matrix 77 The Growth Matrix 82 R & D Investment in the Real- Options Growth (ROG) Matrix 84 A Shared Option in the Real- Options...

Ngày tải lên: 11/06/2014, 13:33

... price, and receive an asset that has some value in return The only difference between financial option and real options is that the exercise of real options has no time constraints Thus, in real options ... standard options on financial asset, a new term, real option is used in the literature The study aims to use real options theory to analyze real estate investment, especially the timing problems in real ... explain different investment behavior in the market and help better understanding of real estate markets, especially real estate cycles The real options literatures have been growing very fast There...

Ngày tải lên: 27/11/2015, 12:23

... hạn hoàn vốn lâu, vậy, dự án hoàn toàn không hấp dẫn Có lẽ công ty NFK chưa dùng phương pháp real options để đánh giá dự án này, song phương pháp (nếu sử dụng) cho kết gần với giá trị mỏ vàng ... tự, đơn theo quy luật chu kỳ dao động giá quy luật quy tụ giá mức trung bình Song phương pháp real options lại cho phép giải mã giả thiết thành số Có thể miêu tả vắn tắt sau: Công ty cần xác định ... đợi Chỉ số nhân lên với giá trị công ty tính Và vậy, bạn có giá trị công ty tính phương pháp real options Con số cho nhà đầu tư xem chào họ mua công ty bạn, vậy, mức giá bán cao nhiều so với...

Ngày tải lên: 09/12/2013, 18:15

... Timing Options 175 Switching Option 178 Closed-Form Equations and Binomial Convergence Nonrecombining Lattices 189 95 183 CHAPTER Extended Problems: Combining Forecasting, DCF Modeling, Real Options, ... Static DCF Models for Each Case 42 Step 4: Monte Carlo Simulation DCF Outputs Become Real Options Inputs 43 Step 5: Framing the Real Options 46 Step 6: Options Analytics, Simulation, and Optimization ... Inc., the Real Options Analysis Toolkit and the Crystal suite of products, including of Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and forecasting He heads up the development of real options and financial...

Ngày tải lên: 09/04/2014, 12:06

... of real option concepts to create and guide behavior COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: FINANCIAL AND REAL OPTIONS The conceptual analogy between financial options and real options is quite intuitive, and ... (wait/defer, abandon, switch, grow, expand/contract, compound) This work has delivered further important insights into the commonalities and differences between real options and financial options ANALOGIES: ... any given firm are decisions to acquire, exercise, abandon or let expire real options Managerial decisions create call and put options on real assets that give management the right, but not the...

Ngày tải lên: 23/04/2014, 22:28

... Variants, Contributions and Limitations 28 3-1 Type of Real Options 47 3-2 Financial Options versus Real Options 47 3-3 Correspondence between Financial and Real Options .51 ... decisions are viewed as real options or combinations of real options, such as options to defer, expand, switch, contract, or abandon, as shown in Table 3-1 (Trigeorgis, 1996; Yao and Jaafari, 2003) ... options are of this kind Case study in Chapter and Table 3-2 Comparison between Financial Options and Real Options Characteristics Financial options Real options Maturity Short, usually in months...

Ngày tải lên: 03/06/2014, 02:10

... is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding The Wiley Finance series contains ... me to the field of real options during my MBA studies in Manchester Without his infectious enthusiasm and never-ending willingness to discover real options in all aspects of real life, I would ... any given firm are decisions to acquire, exercise, abandon or let expire real options Managerial decisions create call and put options on real assets that give management the right, but not the...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... of real option concepts to create and guide behavior COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: FINANCIAL AND REAL OPTIONS The conceptual analogy between financial options and real options is quite intuitive, and ... exercise, and time to expiration and exercise price are well defined For real options, the time horizon tends to be 46 REAL OPTIONS IN PRACTICE much longer, and both exercise price and asset ... entry ❑ ❑ ❑ FIGURE 2.9 Real options behave different than financial options 52 REAL OPTIONS IN PRACTICE THE BINOMIAL PRICING MODEL TO PRICE REAL OPTIONS Six years after Black and Scholes published...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... between real and financial options is that financial options are monopoly options, while real options are often shared Competitive entry may prematurely terminate a real option Further, for real options, ... learning and defining the market variability, specifically for investment options that are only at the money REAL CALL OPTIONS WITH UNCERTAIN TIME TO MATURITY Real options, other than financial options, ... Maturity, in the world of real options, is private, and there is no hedge The closest we come in financial options to the problem of unknown maturity is an American option with random maturity Here,...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... Intersection of Real Options and Game Theory (Risk Books, London, 2001) 19 N Kulatilaka and E.C Perotti, “Strategic Growth Options, ” Management Science 44:1021, 1998; B Lambrecht and W Perraudin, Real Option ... not just by current supply and demand, but also by the pipeline of previous and ongoing constructions, creating a path dependency of 140 REAL OPTIONS IN PRACTICE the real option value This pipeline ... the valuation of shared options, options that emerge and expire and alter in value as competitors enter or exit the market place and change the market dynamics, as well as options that are designed...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... both options are at the money Assuming a market probability of 50% for the best and worst case scenario and a final market payoff of $212 million and $141 million for call 1, and $175 million and ... Learning Real Option Pricing and Optimal Filtering,” in L Trigeorgis, ed., Real Options and Business Strategy Applications to Decision-making (Risk Books, 2001) P.D Childs, S.H Ott, and T.J Riddiough, ... from observation and thereby reduces the incentive and value to wait Noise, on the other hand, can also encourage delaying the acquisition or exercise of a real option more than a real option analysis...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... a real option and guides how the organization will analyze and value similar real options in the future Hamel and Prahalad,15 building on and extending the view of the resource-based firm and ... reinforcing, honest, and motivational Real options will only be exercised rationally and will be value maximizing if execution is rewarded and not penalized, not even for the abandonment option The ... benchmarks and performance generates the empirical platform to identify, create, and value emerging real options Firms that have performance measures in place and are diligent in observing and measuring...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... available options carefully and exercise as required Flexibility Real Options Capabilities FIGURE 9.3 The organizational real option triad Resources 296 REAL OPTIONS IN PRACTICE Real Options Being ... Lander and G.E Pinches, “Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options, ” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 38:537, 1998 57 J.S Busby and C.G Pitts, Real ... T Copeland, T Koller, and J Murrin, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (John Wiley and Sons, 1998, p 362) 48 K.J Leslie and M.P Michaels, “The Real Power of Real Options, ”...

Ngày tải lên: 02/07/2014, 01:20

... operating cash flows Then, if demand is sluggish, you should exercise the put option and receive $10 million If demand is buoyant, you should continue with the project and receive $18 million So, ... ($10 million - $8 million) = $2 million if demand is sluggish and $0 if demand is buoyant 207 We can value the put using the risk-neutral method If demand is buoyant, then the gain in value is: ... demand at that time is low If you could undertake the project only in years and 2, overall project Net Present Value would change because choices would be constrained If, for example, demand...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 11:20

... of real options?  Investment timing options  Growth options Expansion of existing product line New products New geographic markets 12 - Types of real options (Continued)  Abandonment options ... growth opportunity, and it isn’t traded (More ) 12 - How are real options different from financial options?  The payoffs for financial options are specified in the contract  Real options are “found” ... Flexibility options 12 - Five Procedures for Valuing Real Options DCF analysis of expected cash flows, ignoring the option Qualitative assessment of the real option’s value Decision tree analysis Standard...

Ngày tải lên: 06/04/2015, 19:41

... limitations and contributions of the research, and suggests potential areas for further research Real Options Climate Change Page 10 PART A CO2 EMISSION PROCESS AND REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS Real Options ... Decisions and Real Options 25  2.5.1 Rationale of Real Options Analysis for Analyzing Climate Change Policy26  2.6 Value of a Project under Uncertainty and its Option Value 27  Real Options ... step by step Real Options Climate Change Page 18 2.3 Overview of Real Options Literature and Related Climate Change Literature The literature of financial option pricing and real options analysis...

Ngày tải lên: 09/09/2015, 10:14

... (Asif and Mandviwalla 2005) 1.3 Real Options Reasoning A real option is an investment in physical and human assets that provides the opportunity to respond to future contingent events (Kogut and ... payoff look attractive (Kogut and Kulatilaka 2001; McGrath and MacMillan 2000) Although the notion of real options has been derived from financial investment options, real options cannot be valued ... identifies the role of institutional and individual factors in decisionmakers’ recognition of the various real options from RFID adoption and how this recognition of real options affects their intention...

Ngày tải lên: 11/09/2015, 09:02

... costs and benefits of flexibility 29 2.5 OPTIONS AND REAL OPTIONS –FLEXIBILITY FORMALIZED 30 2.5.1 Options 30 2.5.2 Real options 32 2.6 REAL OPTIONS ... of real options and their exercising conditions No conventional real options methodologies are able to systematically and holistically valuate and select multiple interdependent real options and ... 62 PROPOSING A NEW REAL OPTIONS FRAMEWORK BY CONSOLIDATING AND EXTENDING THE PREVAILING REAL OPTIONS PRACTICES BY A STEP OF OPTIMIZATION 63 3.1 THE PROPOSED REAL OPTIONS FRAMEWORK ...

Ngày tải lên: 11/09/2015, 14:29

... the U.S and real options represent a significant portion of pharmaceutical and biotech firms’ value The real options of these firms are clearly demarked and come in the form of new patents and drugs ... product-market competition and the business cycle, not considered in the real options models, may affect empirical results Real Options Models and Innovative Investment The theory of real options provides ... applies real options methods to corporate finance and asset pricing problems The theory of real options recognizes that firms represent continuously evolving portfolios of ongoing projects and growth...

Ngày tải lên: 30/09/2015, 16:34

... port, handling operation areas are located based on the infrastructure advantages such as railway, high way, and inland waterway These areas are installed and equipped with modern and advanced handling ... Forwarding and transporting agent  Transporting containers from Haiphong to Laocai and vice versa by railway  Bagging, packing, and transporting cargoes by sea, highway, and inland waterways ... existence and development, port of Haiphong has always played the most important role of the “Border gate” interface in the North of Vietnam Import and export cargoes to and from North of Laos and...

Ngày tải lên: 27/10/2012, 16:51