break even analysis and decision making

... accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Introduction to Data Analysis and Decision Making Introduction (slide of 2)  Living in the age of ... Data analysis? ??includes data description, data inference, and the search for relationships in data  Decision making? ??includes optimization techniques for problems with no uncertainty, decision analysis ... separate fields: statistics and management science  Statistics is the study of data analysis  Management science is the study of model building, optimization, and decision making  Three important...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... analysis: Recognize a problem that needs to be solved Gather data to help understand and then solve the problem Analyze the data Act on this analysis  It is up to you to ask good questions? ?and ... posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Describing the Distribution of a Single Variable Introduction (slide of 2) ... violent and property crimes for the years 1960 to 2010  In StatTools, designate a StatTools data set  Then select Times Series Graph from the Time Series and Forecasting dropdown list and fill...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Finding Relationships among Variables Introduction  The primary interest in data analysis is usually in relationships ... smoking and drinking  Solution: Data set lists the smoking and drinking habits of 8761 adults  Categories have been coded “N,” “O,” “H,” “S,” and “D” for “Non,” “Occasional,” “Heavy,” “Smoker,” and ... Excel and use the COUNTIFS function to fill the table with counts of joint categories  Next, sum across rows and down columns to get totals  Then express the counts as percentages of row and...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Probability and Probability Distributions Introduction (slide of 3)  A key aspect ... number between and that measures the likelihood that some event will occur  An event with probability cannot occur, whereas an event with probability is certain to occur  An event with probability ... Mean and Variance  There are many situations where the mean and variance of a random variable depend on some external event  In this case, you can condition on the outcome of the external event...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions Introduction  Several specific distributions ... in part Standardizing: Z-Values  The standard normal distribution has mean and standard deviation 1, so it is denoted by N(0,1)  It is also referred to as the Z distribution  To standardize ... mean and standard deviation of each annual return and then use the standardizing formula to calculate the corresponding Zvalue  OR calculate the Z-values directly, using Excel’s STANDARDIZE function...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Decision Making under Uncertainty Introduction  A formal framework for analyzing decision problems that involve uncertainty ... choosing among alternative decisions  How probabilities are used in the decision- making process  How early decisions affect decisions made at a later stage  How a decision maker can quantify ... affect the analysis  A powerful graphical tool—a decision tree—guides the analysis  A decision tree enables a decision maker to view all important aspects of the problem at once: the decision...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Sampling and Sampling Distributions Introduction  In a typical statistical inference ... simple random sample of size 10 from this frame  To this, first generate a column of random numbers in column F using the RAND function  Then, sort the rows according to the random numbers and ... population distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ, the sampling distribution of the sample mean X is approximately normal with mean μ and standard deviation σ/√n, and the approximation improves...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... difference between husbands’ and wives’ ratings of sales presentations  Solution: A random sample of husbands and wives are asked (separately) to rate the sales presentation at Stevens HondaBuick ... Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Confidence Interval Estimation Introduction  Statistical inferences are always based on an underlying probability model, which means that some type of random ... mean satisfaction rating of the new sandwich  Solution: A random sample of 40 customers who ordered a new sandwich were surveyed Each was asked to rate the sandwich on a scale of to 10  The results...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making Hypothesis Testing Introduction  In hypothesis testing, an analyst collects sample data and checks whether the data provide ... to know whether the demands for Windows and Mac laptops are related in any way  Big Office has daily information on categories of demand for 250 days, with each day’s demand for each type of computer ... conservative decision making © 2015 Cengage Learning All Rights Reserved May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part Significance Level and...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 10 Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships Introduction (slide of 2)  Regression analysis is the study of relationships ... relationships between variables  There are two potential objectives of regression analysis: to understand how the world operates and to make predictions  Two basic types of data are analyzed:  Cross-sectional ... is a nonlinear function of demand, and if it is, what form the nonlinearity takes  Solution: The data set lists the number of units of electricity produced (Units) and the total cost of producing...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference Introduction  Two basic problems are ... predictions, calculate standard errors of prediction  Standard error of prediction for a single Y:  This error is approximately equal to the standard error of estimate  Standard error of prediction ... These standard errors can be used to calculate a 95% prediction interval for an individual value and a 95% confidence interval for a mean value  Go out a t-multiple of the relevant standard error...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Introduction  Forecasting is a very difficult task, both in the short run and in the long run ... difficult to separate the noise, or random behavior, from the underlying patterns  Some forecasts may attribute importance to patterns that are in fact random variations and are unlikely to repeat themselves ... reference quarter) and estimate the additive equation:  Then the coefficients of the dummy variables, b1, b2, and b3, indicate how much each quarter differs from the reference quarter, and the coefficient...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling Introduction  Spreadsheet optimization is one of the most powerful and flexible methods of quantitative analysis ... Basics and 1200 XPs   Each labor hour for assembling costs $11 and for testing costs $15 Each Basic sells for $300 and each XP for $450 The cost of component parts for a Basic is $150 and for ... 10,000 assembly hours and 3000 testing hours available Each Basic requires five hours for assembling and one hour for testing, and each XP requires six hours for assembling and two hours for testing...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... peak-load and off-peak periods  The daily demand for power during each period (in kwh) is related to price as follows:  Here, Dp and Pp are demand and price during peak-load times, and D0 and P0 ... the model periodically (each day, for example) and set production on the basis of current inventory of inputs and the current forecasts of demands and prices  Then the model would be run again ... finding the revenue-maximizing plan that meets quality constraints and stays within the limits on crude oil availabilities  Solution: Chandler Oil has 5000 barrels of crude oil and 10,000 barrels...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... Examples 15.1 and 15.2  Assume now that Walton estimates a triangular probability distribution for demand, where the minimum, most likely, and maximum values of demand are 100, 175, and 300, respectively ... models and simulation models is that at least one of the input variable cells in a simulation contains random numbers  Each time the spreadsheet recalculates, the random numbers change, and the ... posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling Introduction (slide of 2)  A simulation...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 16 Simulation Models Introduction  Simulation can be used to analyze a wide ... minimum, most likely, and maximum values $9000, $10,000, and $15,000  Miller also assesses that the cost to prepare the bid has a triangular distribution with parameters $300, $350, and $500  Four ... Pletcher Marketing to market and sell these condos  Pletcher will incur all of the marketing and maintenance costs, assumed to be $800 per unsold condo per month, and it will receive a 10% commission...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 17 Data Mining Introduction (slide of 2)  Data mining attempts to discover patterns, trends, and relationships among data, especially nonobvious and ... variable  Cluster analysis? ??tries to group observations into clusters so that observations within a cluster are alike, and observations in different clusters are not alike  Market basket analysis? ??tries ... Exploration and Visualization  Data mining is a relatively new field and not everyone agrees with its definition  Data mining includes advanced algorithms that can be used to find useful information and...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 18 Importing Data into Excel Introduction  Any statistical analysis presumes that you have the appropriate data in a format suitable for analysis ... Player, Team, Salary, and Position, follow these steps: Insert a blank column before column B, and enter the label Team in cell B2 Cut the Arizona Diamondbacks team name from cell A1 and paste it next ... the top row  Sometimes simple cutting and pasting works  In other cases, advanced Excel functions are required  In all cases, it is best to map out a plan and then decide how to implement it...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 19 Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design Introduction (slide of 3)  The procedure ... other four brands in cool weather and (2) brand E beats the average of the other four brands when it is not cool  Let μC,W be the mean yardage for brand C balls hit in warm weather, and define ... the test:  Let Yj, s2j, and nj be the sample mean, sample variance, and sample size from treatment level j  Also let n and Y be the combined number of observations and the sample mean of all...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:35

... effectively and more productively for the company Break Down Barriers? ?Break down barriers between departments and staff areas 10 Eliminate Exhortations—Eliminate the use of slogans, posters, and exhortations ... posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Chapter Decision Making 20 Statistical Process Control Introduction  One of the areas where statistics ... workforce, demanding zero defects and new levels of productivity without providing methods 11 Eliminate Arbitrary Numerical Targets—Eliminate work standards that prescribe quotas for the workforce and...

Ngày tải lên: 10/08/2017, 10:36