MỤC LỤC
Researches and studies have been used are: “Biodiversity in Van Long NR”, “Relationship between local people livelihoods and conservation activities in Van Long NR”, “Flora biodiversity in Van Long NR”, “Status and Recommendations for sustainable ecotourism development in Van Long, nature wetland reserve”, “Evaluating and assessing community participation in wild animal conservation, Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province”. The future trend of climate parameters (include temperature, precipitation, and the number of extremely hot days) is calculated from data called “Climate model’’ in form of GRID raster.
Very Low level or Very limited institutional capacity, no technical and financial support means no solution available, people and management institutions do not have any experiences, knowledge and preparations for unexpected situations, like extreme events. Low level is limited institutional capacity and limited access to the technical and financial resource, people find it hard or cannot access to local resources, information access is limited to prepare and recover from damages, but they have some experiences and traditional solutions to deal with this problems.
Source: Calculation from Climate model, Institute of Meteorological and Hydrological Environment, MONRE, 2012 From the table 4.3, both dry days and number of hot days over 35°C will increase in the future (2030, 2050 and 2100). In this research, term “impacts” is defined as effects on natural - human systems, primarily used to refer to the effects of extreme weather and climate events on both natural and human. Potential Impact levels from climate change to each social ecological system with different climatic threats are synthesized on the Table 4.6.
- Forest and non – timber forest products are not very sensitive to the change in rainfall, which sometimes creates favorable conditions for them to grow.
Livelihoods have higher resource dependence and exposure to climate change tend to have higher vulnerability due to low in-migration, high rates of poverty and unemployment, and low family income and educational attainment (Stedman et al. Regard to climatic threats, based on the climate change vulnerability assessment for social ecological system in Van Long NR, most of SESs tend to suffer more Potential Impacts and more vulnerable to climate change when rainfall increase in the rainy season and decrease in the dry season. Based on the climate change vulnerability assessment for social ecological system in Van Long NR, it is obviously that rainfall pattern change (increase in rainfall in the rainy season and decrease in rainfall in the dry season) is the climate change event causing the highest impact and the highest vulnerability to the SESs of Van Long NR.
Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions should focus on enhancing adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability and sensitivity of cultivation and livelihood from animal husbandry caused by change in rainfall pattern, especially increase in rainfall in wet season, which lead to floods.
Extensive aquaculture is solution that using indigenous fishes species and natural algae to feed them, reducing impacts from pollution and production activities The extensive aquaculture is able to offer fishes to households, can be sold on the market for household income without harms to aquatic ecosystems. Additionally, this Ecosystem-based adaptation by reducing dependence on the environmental, weather, and climate conditions, well adapted to the extreme environmental conditions and while improving the productivity and quality of livestock, slow growth in cattle due to food scarcity, and animals get sick due to hunger and poor quality food. “Diversify the tree crops within plantation landscapes to increase the structural (and economic) complexity of the stands, and enhance their resilience to climate stress”: Forests are the food storing areas for livestock and additional income for farmers, but the regeneration rate is slow.
“Sustainable harvesting of timber and non-timber forest products management mechanisms”: This is a feasible Ecosystem-based Adaptation solution because it ensures these factors: enhance the management and use of the ecosystem services are provisioning and supporting services (non-timber products).
Additional research also needs to be conducted to find potential technical supports with high efficiency and low cost which promote adaptive capacity of local people, particularly in wetland areas like Van Long NR. This is an important point for future studies because institutions and associated rules and regulations are often the facilitators of, and barriers to, adaptation. A useful extension to this current research would be to incorporate quantitative measures of institutional and governance barriers or facilitators of adaptation in the overall social- ecological vulnerability assessment metric.
Ecosystem-based Adaptation in responding to climate change is a new concept, whereas the local authority and people have the habit of relating to structural solutions for climate change responses.
In contrast, even without any preparation for extreme events and climate change, forest-based livelihood and livelihood from ecotourism on wetland tend to have fewer damages from extreme events and climate change than cultivation and livelihood from husbandry. Vulnerability assessment for ecological social system is useful in identifying and comparing the overall vulnerability of ecosystems and communities reliant on the forest and natural resource. Adaptation is a process that has numerous stages, start from issue identification in the implementation of an adaptive management cycle and barriers to adaptation may arise at any point and may be driven by external factors.
The method is applied in this thesis can be useful in the Ecosystem-based Adaptation implementation process, as the first stage is identifying the issue of social-ecological systems.
Bad sanitary, clean water and food shortage make livestock and poultry (pigs, chickens, and cows) suffer from diseases and death. People do not go to work nor to the forest due to the traffic fragment, limit power and communication accessibility in accommodations. 2) Storms and tropical depressions. Even the effects from storms and Tropical depressions are not directed, but they are accompanied by heavy rain when they occur and cause risks of reducing crop yields and increase costs for the restoration of housing and infrastructure. The local people said that heavy rains and flooding, ruined production trees and crops, fragmented traffic, storms cause serious impacts to livelihood activities. Floods caused by storms with serious damage to production activities and infrastructure, like crops and rice were broken, and affected people's lives, damage buildings, sometimes swept away cattle. 3) Heat wave and drought. Pursuant to Decree 7/2015/ NDCP, decree on mechanism and policy of forest development associated with the policy on sustainable and rapid poverty reduction and assistance for the period 2015 – 2020, due to residing in the nature reserve of many inhabitants, about 30ha of forest was allocated for a household to manage and protect with 100,000 VND/ha/year. The industrial development and inadequate/ no attention paid to treatment of farming waste and domestic garbage (solid wastes and wastewater), from inhabitants and tourist, emission from cement plant, is giving rise to pollution, become threats to livelihood and the eco-environment, causing negative health and environmental impacts. There is no solution or regulation to deal with trash from tourist and garbage treatment plant. Travel agencies also do not give any pollution preventive solutions. 2) The rights and ability to access and control local natural resources Strength and opportunities.
Together with, the road system upgrading, especially the provincial road (in 2000) and Gian Khau industrial park create opportunities for economic development as well as opportunities for residential and land use planning. Most of fields locate close their houses which are easily to access. Concrete road system gives better access to cultivation areas, they can go by motorbikes or bicycles. There is only one local market next to Van Long NR ticket booth. This local market can be a helpful solution for the local people to trade in goods, add values to their products and improve their market capacity. Weaknesses and challenges. Access to clean water supplement is limited. The water supply system is ineffective. The water quality is low without processing. In addition, domestic waste is not collected and treated thoroughly, mainly from tourists and local people. Waste from tourists affects the environment in the NR and habitats of rare species. Air quality is affected by emission from surrounding factories and Gian Khau industrial parks. Free grazing remains the main modality of animal husbandry without captive facilities at present, which slow down limestone forest regeneration rate. There is no drainage system, rainwater and sewage pouring directly into lakes, ponds, canals in surrounding areas and ditches in residential areas, affecting water sources and the environment. with local market next to tourist destination, but only few street vendors with some industrial or imported souvenirs, because number of buyers is limited so it seldom opens up. Some communes can be isolated due to flooded road system when extreme rainfall events occur. 3) Local authorities and people knowledge Strengths and opportunities. It does not only bring job opportunities and higher income but also in terms of culture diversity loss, social evils and bad behaviors (cheating, no transparency). Those will be bad impressive for international tourists and able to reduce number of tourists. This is where the local authority should take proactive control over the negative impacts. 4) Innovations and experience of response to climate change Strengths and opportunities. In response to unpredictable and severe climatic conditions, local people are experienced in using planting rice during rainy seasons (January and can be harvested in May-June and June-July to September) because during this time, water is abundant and wetland area is large, other crops die due to waterlogging.