Futures past and present

Contents The colours of energy Introduction Energy and climate change are deining challenges of this century Energy and society Futures past and present We need to rethink economics and geopolitics The inevitability and morality of an energy transition Oil, gas, carbon and rock Renewables and more Fossil fuels in a decarbonising world Energy from wind, sun, biomass, fusion and ission Changing patterns of use Regional vistas How people take control of their energy use How different countries are facing different challenges Tap for the complete list of essays The colours of energy Contents Introduction Foreword > Ben van Beurden Preface > Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Energy, sustainability and progress A long-term perspective > Gert Jan Kramer, Chris Laurens, Jeremy Bentham and Bram Vermeer Energy and society A new order The geopolitics of the energy and climate challenge > Cho-Oon Khong Energy security New forms of energy create new dependencies > Coby van der Linde Low-carbon prosperity The value of forward-looking policy in the face of uncertainty > Sam Fankhauser and Mallika Ishwaran Futures past and present Some thoughts on the year 2000 The future as seen half a century ago > James Lovelock Living in overshoot A forecast and the desire to have it wrong > Jorgen Randers Revisiting the future Reflections on Shell’s 1995 scenarios > Chris Anastasi The colours of energy Contents Towards net-zero emissions An outlook for a prosperous world > Jeremy Bentham Start stopping Towards a fossil fuel ethic for a cultural transition > Thomas Princen Redefining progress What our ancient roots teach us about humanity’s dominion over nature > Jan J Boersema Parents behaving like teenagers An intergenerational perspective on the energy challenge > Herman van der Meyden and Maaike Witteveen Oil, gas, carbon and rock The energy shift The decline of easy oil and the restructuring of geopolitics > Oliver Inderwildi Dealing with fossil fuels Carbon capture and storage in a global context > Ron Oxburgh Refining the role of the refinery New challenges to old technologies > Carl Mesters The energy density conundrum When the days of easy energy are over > José Bravo and Gert Jan Kramer Earth sciences for the Anthropocene An emerging discipline > Dirk Smit Contents The colours of energy Gauging climate records What the Earth’s past can tell us about our future > Bruce Levell Renewables and more The multi-terawatt challenge Preparing photovoltaics for global impact > Wim Sinke Renewables on an oil and gas scale One million barrels of oil equivalent from wind > Wim Thomas Nuclear power at a crossroads Conditions for a revival of the industry > Chris Anastasi The cradle of new energy technologies Why we have solar cells but not yet nuclear fusion > Niek Lopes Cardozo, Guido Lange and Gert Jan Kramer Fuel for thought How to deal with competing claims on biomass > Iris Lewandowski and Angelika Voss The artificial leaf The quest to outsmart nature > Huub de Groot Changing patterns of use Energy efficiency The rest of the iceberg > Amory B Lovins Consumers at the gate How energy comes closer > Jurriaan Ruys and Michael Hogan Contents The colours of energy Hydrogen Getting the fuel of the future on the road at last > Walter Böhme, Klaus Bonhoff, Gijs van Breda Vriesman, Peter Froeschle, Philippe Mulard, Andreas Opfermann, Oliver Weinmann and Jörg Wind Entangled circles Energy and its resource connections > Tom Graedel, Ayman Elshkaki and Ester van der Voet The second death of distance Hidden drivers of mobility and energy > Tali Trigg Food is fuel A tale of bodies and cars > Grahame Buss Regional vistas The greening and cleaning of China Low-carbon pathways for the world’s largest energy consumer > Jiang Kejun and Alexander van der Made The long journey The USA at the midpoint of its energy transition > Michael Eckhart Facing a wealth of renewables How Germany can advance its Energiewende > Michael Weinhold and Klaus Willnow Targets, technologies, infrastructure and investments Preparing the UK for the energy transition > Jo Coleman and Andrew Haslett A collective approach to change Negotiating an energy transition in the Netherlands > Wiebe Draijer Contents The colours of energy Sustaining the transition Towards a European energy agreement > Ed Nijpels Empowering women to power the world How solar lanterns brighten life in Nepal > Bennett Cohen and Anya Cherneff Disclaimer and imprint Introduction The colours of energy Introduction Energy and climate change are deining challenges of this century Foreword > Ben van Beurden Preface > Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Energy, sustainability and progress A long-term perspective > Gert Jan Kramer, Chris Laurens, Jeremy Bentham and Bram Vermeer Introduction Foreword Foreword More than a century of operating around the world has taught those of us at Shell some vital lessons about how to business – about collaboration, innovation and the importance of taking a long-term strategic view We have also learned the value of listening to external voices As CEO of Shell, I have found the wisdom and insights of the people I meet around the world enormously helpful While we at Shell may not agree with all opinions expressed in this book, they give my colleagues and me fresh insights, which help us make long-term strategic decisions Getting those decisions right matters to Shell – but it also matters to the world at large Why? Because energy is essential to so many of the things we take for granted in our daily lives: commerce, communications, transport and food production, to name just a few And because the world is experiencing the start of a transition in the way it produces and consumes energy The fact is that we all face a number of energy-related challenges – among them rising population, urbanisation and, of course, climate change It’s essential that we, together, get the response to those challenges right As Gert Jan Kramer, Chris Laurens, Jeremy Bentham and Bram Vermeer ask in their introductory essay to this volume: how can we “marshal ever more energy in the service of human progress and simultaneously make that energy use more sustainable”? Introduction Foreword For all these reasons, I’m delighted that Shell has been able to initiate and publish this book: a collection of essays that demonstrate diverse thinking about the many challenges the energy system faces These essays contain views that not (and are not intended to) necessarily reflect those of Shell They not seek to predict likely future events But they challenge our thinking, certainly And they are designed to offer plausible, if perhaps at times remote, possibilities of what the future could hold Inside these pages you will read the thoughts of some of the world’s leading energy thinkers You will find essays on subjects as varied as the geopolitics of energy, prospects for a net-zero emissions world, carbon capture and storage, religion and sustainability, the geology of climate change, mobility and transport, and energy efficiency And while there is a good deal of discussion about oil and gas, and their place in the energy future, there are also many pertinent explorations of the prospects for solar, wind, biofuels, hydrogen and nuclear power For all their diversity, the essays share some common threads: a sense of urgency and a sense of optimism; an understanding that, while remaking the global energy system will not be easy, it can be done if we work together In fact, when I read these essays I am reminded of why three decades ago, as a young chemical engineer in search of a career, I decided to go into the energy business It is as exciting an industry to work in now as it was back then – while companies like Shell have proud histories, our gaze is to the future, and the role we can play in the transition to a world of cleaner energy Regional vistas T Empowering women to power the world he sun is setting over the mighty Himalaya, and Manju, a young mother in rural Nepal, sees the fumes thicken above her village Her neighbours are lighting kerosene lamps to provide some light in the dark of night, and stoking indoor fires to prepare dinner Without these dim flames, the village gets dark on moonless nights in a way those of us in cities can scarcely imagine It’s a darkness that is increasingly rare on such a crowded planet as ours Yet, there are still roughly 1.2 billion people, or 20% of the global population, living in the darkness of energy poverty.1 Some of the households in Manju’s village have access to the power grid but this night, as usual, it is down The capital city, Kathmandu, has priority when it comes to rationing the measly amount of electricity flowing through the rickety Nepali grid, and much of that is rumoured to be hogged by government facilities Nepalis are starved of energy, despite their muchlauded potential for domestic hydropower, because such large projects and grid expansions require stability, infrastructure and an effective central government Like countless people in developing countries, Nepalis have been waiting for generations for these potentials to be met Less than half the population has access to the grid, which is down more than half the time Those tired of waiting for centrally driven solutions have increasingly taken power into their own hands Rather than lighting the kerosene lamp – the default lighting ‘solution’ for the world’s poor – Manju reaches over and flips the switch on her ‘d light S20’ It is a solar lantern that provides bright LED light from dusk to bedtime, and will last for many years Since acquiring it, her home has become a bright spot in her rural village, where a literacy class meets, women gather to work and children come to study When provided the option, more households like Manju’s are choosing to go solar, using just one or two affordable watts at a time to meet their basic lighting needs Seventy per cent of the people living in energy poverty are women and girls, largely because men migrate to cities or abroad in search of work.2 This leaves women like Manju increasingly responsible for growing the rural economy that is plagued with energy poverty, yet they are denied the same financial, technological and social resources as men Forced to rely on kerosene, Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world women like Manju know all too well its high costs – kerosene can account for nearly a third of household expenditure.3 In addition to the constant expense, kerosene lighting is also dangerous for women’s health: the air pollution from indoor combustion results in the death of around million women and children globally each year, and scars from burns are all too common; in Nepal, exposure to kerosene increases women’s likelihood of tuberculosis ninefold.4 Because of the low socio-economic status of women, Nepal is one of the only countries where men have a higher life expectancy Having sacrificed so much for lighting in the past, Manju’s decision to buy a solar lantern was an easy one It paid for itself in a few months and came with a two-year warranty Because Manju knows the local solar retailer well, she has faith that the warranty will be honoured, and feels like a valued customer, rather than just a remote consumer Financing from her local savings and credit co-operative allowed Manju to pay for the light over time, in similar instalments to her previous kerosene purchases Manju has become a sales agent and a champion for solar products in her community The trust other women have in her affords them the confidence they need to go solar as well Over time, Manju has earned enough money from her kerosene savings and sales commissions to buy an additional solar light, this time the €27 ($30) ‘d.light S300’ It provides more and even brighter light than the ‘S20’ (at $13 or €11.5) and also charges devices via a USB port It is now possible to have a reliably charged mobile phone as well Manju’s story illustrates the life-changing potential at the intersection of distributed clean-energy technologies and the empowerment of women into the workforce In developing countries, women often serve as the household energy managers, responsible for obtaining fuels such as kerosene and biomass, and burning them – usually indoors – to provide energy for lighting and cooking Just collecting the required fuel can take up to eight hours of a woman’s day (a full-time job) Imagine the opportunity to unleash this wasted time and human capital Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world Our journey begins We, Bennett and Anya, created Empower Generation to turn energy from a life-threatening struggle into a life-changing opportunity for women in developing countries Empower Generation is the marriage of two transformative passions: Anya is an international development professional with a focus on female empowerment and the abolition of human trafficking and forced labour, while Bennett is a clean-energy specialist with a passion for entrepreneurship We are a married couple who found that that there is a tremendous opportunity for social, environmental and economic impact at the intersection of our work Our journey with Empower Generation began gradually We would sit on our couch in Brooklyn, New York and talk about the opportunity to help women in energy-starved areas become catalysts for the clean-energy transition Through our work in the non-profit and energy management sectors, we knew that a top-down approach could not address energy poverty or lead to true gender equality After a few years of developing our ideas, we set off for Asia, where Anya had professional experience In 2010, we travelled through Nepal, Laos and Cambodia, talking with local communities, non-governmental organisations, government agencies and business leaders to learn about what was already happening in cleanenergy deployment and women’s economic empowerment, and to see if there was a need for our concept: empowering women to run clean-energy distribution businesses We listened more than we spoke and noted the many challenges we would face Overall, we concluded that our concept, which others were also pursuing, had vast potential to positively affect the lives of many We observed that, even in 2010, new solar-charged, battery-powered LED lamps were extremely competitive with kerosene lamps and that there were several international companies developing these products specifically to meet the energy needs of the world’s poor We wondered why the people whose lives they could improve dramatically did not have access to these products in large numbers Distribution and finance rose to the surface as the two biggest challenges to tackle, and local women seemed to hold the keys to both Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world Most efforts to include uneducated women in the workforce were focused on transferring sewing and cosmetology skills, but with energy provision and use at the core of women’s responsibilities, clean-energy distribution seemed like an even more promising opportunity As household energy managers, women feel the most pain from energy poverty and have the most to gain from a transition to clean and modern energy We believed that a rural network of women entrepreneurs could become a robust distribution system for clean-energy products, and a strong female presence in Asia’s emerging economies On the need for customer financing, women in Nepal (and many other countries) commonly pool savings to provide loans to one another for important investments such as livestock, education, small businesses or medical services Loans for clean-energy businesses and products appeared to be a logical addition to the list of financial products available through microfinance Women’s microfinance programmes have proved to be an effective tool for development worldwide In Chitwan, a district in southern-central Nepal, we connected with Sita Adhikari, a passionate local leader, and the founder of her local women’s savings and credit co-operative When we met her, she was also heavily involved with running the women and children’s section of her community library Sita was proud of all these community initiatives she had worked on, unpaid, throughout her adult life, but remarked (unprompted), “What I really want to next is bring solar power to my community We all really need it and I want to start my own business.” Sita became our pilot entrepreneur in 2012 Through a crowd-raising initiative on Kickstarter.com, we raised enough money to give Sita a startup loan to buy solar inventory and a motorbike and enrol her in training for small-business management and solar-energy technology We introduced “I really want to bring solar power to my community” Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world her to d.light’s Nepal distributor, supported her in negotiating terms and consulted as they established a trusting, professional relationship We also seeded a few ‘Clean-Energy Funds’ at local savings and credit co-operatives in her target market, giving her customers the option to pay for the solar lights over a six-month period This whole pilot project cost under €7,000 ($8,000) Our goal was to learn how to be successful employing the Lean Startup philosophy of going to market with a minimum viable product with just enough features to test the market and gain as much validated customer learning as possible (“fail fast and fail cheap”) As a social enterprise, our product was our entire impact model of identifying and training capable women, supporting their businesses with capital, customer financing and awareness building, and giving assistance connecting and negotiating with international clean-energy product suppliers We saw realistic pricing for clean-energy products, marketed to the poorest of the poor, to be a key validation of our impact model We not see a future in highly subsidised or free products for the world’s energy-poor This approach has already been tried by countless organisations and governments, and with limited success in achieving widespread clean-energy adoption This is due to beneficiaries not valuing that which comes for free, a lack of any local buy-in or participation in programme implementation, the crowding out of local players from emerging clean-energy markets, and an endless need for external funding that leads to a destructive culture of donor-dependency In an extreme case, solar home systems were 90% governmentsubsidised in ‘very remote’ unelectrified areas of Nepal This resulted in the government support programme effectively being the end customer, and local installers quickly putting up large, shoddy systems to claim subsidies without considering the needs of their customers or what products were appropriate in the local market We have seen systems that stopped working months after they were installed with no way for the customer to contact the installer to maintain them Since the installers had already collected the subsidies, there was no incentive for them to return Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world The test When our first solar products arrived in Nepal, we were nervous Would people actually buy the lights at a sustainable market price? Could Sita actually make enough sales to turn a profit? To our extreme delight, the lights sold steadily at the manufacturer’s suggested retail price Sita began to relay stories of children studying and women making handicrafts at night using bright, clean, and safe solarcharged LED lights Of course, not everything went smoothly – far from it! But the learning offered from our early mistakes and challenges was well worth the cost of the pilot project In her first year of business, Sita sold over 500 solar products Today, around two years later, Empower Generation is scaling up its impact By the end of 2014, we were supporting seven solar retailers in different regions of Nepal; Sita’s business has vertically scaled to become a national distributor of d.light solar products and has sold over 4,000 solar products By the end of 2014, Empower Generation’s distribution network had deployed over 12,000 solar products, which have provided bright, clean and safe light to 60,000 people The impact of even a modest deployment like this should not be underestimated The average household size in Nepal is 4.9 people and the lights run for at least 3.5 hours on a charge They are guaranteed to run for at least two years, with the lights having an expected life of five years Adding this up, each kerosene-replacing light provides a household with around 12,500 people-hours of productivity that would have otherwise been lost to darkness With bright LED light, activities such as studying and fine handiwork become possible Deploying 13,500 solar lights could add up to over 170 million additional productive people-hours in Nepal These staggering calculations reveal the true promise of affordable clean energy for all This deployment would also avoid over 2,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide from kerosene combustion and reduce household energy expenses by over €100,000 ($120,000) The social impact can also be vast Each business Empower Generation supports provides full-time employment, access to training and increased social capital for the entrepreneurs chosen to lead them, Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world as well as income-generating opportunities for the network of women, like Manju, working as village sales agents So far all the women in Empower Generation’s network have children; most were married at a young age and left school before receiving their high-school diploma It’s a true inspiration to witness their extraordinary transformation from shy housewives to deal-making clean-energy CEOs and savvy sales agents Of course, Empower Generation’s impact in Nepal is just a drop of light in the global bucket of energy-poverty darkness, but many collaborators are working towards the same goal of delivering clean, super-rugged and affordable solar-power kits to the energy-impoverished, while encouraging social entrepreneurship and local market development The movement is gaining momentum In 2014, an increasing number of top-tier venture investors entered the space – most notably, Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Khosla Impact – pouring investments into solar companies targeting developing countries Generally, these companies are raising money to increase distribution, improve their designs, and invest in new technology The next chapter(s) Today’s entrepreneurs selling solar lights and mobile chargers are planting the seeds of a bottom-up, distributed clean-energy system Growing an energy system based on distributed renewable energy and storage makes more economic sense for unelectrified countries than building a centralised system based on early 20th-century economics.5 Developing countries have the potential to leapfrog past massive power plants and miles of highvoltage transmission lines to distributed generation and micro-grids in the same way that many have famously forgone fixed landlines in favour of cellular phones and towers In addition to lower system cost and cleaner energy, a distributed energy system has a crucial advantage over the centralised paradigm in a developing country context: speed A system based on small investments has the potential to be delivered much faster in areas with considerable market risk, due to the ability of customers to take power into their own hands By making small, gradual investments in clean energy, customers can climb the energy ladder one affordable rung at a time, and with low risk Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world Mega-projects, on the other hand, such as hydroelectric dams and highvoltage transmission, are notoriously challenging to finance in areas that are unstable or have weak rule of law and infrastructure The proliferation of wireless communication and distributed cleanenergy systems in developing countries may mutually reinforce each other Several companies now offer solar lights and home energy systems with cellular technology embedded to enable weekly payments from scratch cards purchased at the local market Embedded bluetooth chips allow local retailers to lock and unlock solar home systems based on whether the customer is keeping up on their payments Such schemes bring down the upfront cost of these systems and allow people to pay for energy as they use it (like most of us living in developed countries) Wireless technology also enables solar entrepreneurs to access customers dispersed in hard-to-access, extremely remote areas From this perspective, mobile phone companies may be poised to become the electric utilities of the future They certainly have a natural motivation to enable customers to keep their phones charged A solar-charging entrepreneur programme organised by MTN (Africa’s largest telecommunications company) resulted in a 14% increase in average revenue per user in Uganda We can already see the beginnings of a virtuous cycle Solar-powered light and phone charging increases productivity and reduces energy costs for previously stranded households Increased income and savings enable households to invest more and climb another rung up the energy ladder to light their whole houses and maybe even power a low-wattage direct current television Several more rungs up lies the modern, cleaner energy security many take for granted in other countries Access to modern energy leads to progress in virtually every area of economic development, including education, health and income-generating opportunities Solar photovoltaic power supply is allowing people in remote areas to generate electricity affordably, and without constant fuel delivery (the sun takes care of that) The costs of solar photovoltaics have plummeted by 80% in the last four years, but even with photovoltaics costs falling, without super-efficient use of the electricity generated, solar-based energy Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world systems would still be unaffordable for the world’s poor The superefficient light-emitting diode (LED) lights that frugally sip on the solarelectricity stored in a lantern’s battery are what enable just a few watts of photovoltaic power to light a small home for an entire evening Powering an incandescent bulb, for example, would require around 10 times as much power, making the whole proposition entirely unaffordable Thus, growing the energy system from the bottom-up may lead to a radically more efficient society, as super-efficient appliances follow LED lighting, limiting the amount of supplied energy required The world’s poor cannot afford to be inefficient When the end customer lives at the base of the economic pyramid (BoP) on less than €1.80 ($2) a day, there is a necessary pressure to keep prices as low as possible This can result in margins being squeezed, making it difficult for all links of the distributed solar value chain to survive A balance must be struck between the necessity to deliver to the poor at low cost and the need for margins to be high enough to keep manufacturers, importers, distributors and most importantly retailers interested in extending the clean-energy market to the hardest-to-reach customers For international solar suppliers, the prospect of entering a remote and unfamiliar market can be daunting For example, Nepal’s import/export laws are opaque, and steep import taxes alone are enough to make the whole proposition too expensive Solar products for the BoP can be tax-exempt, but the process of getting the exemption is convoluted and slow In general, shipping goods to developing markets can feel like a leap of faith Indeed, none of Empower Generation’s shipments have arrived in Nepal without a few solar lights ‘falling off the truck’ somewhere along the way, or without serious delay For international investors, the prohibitive foreign investment laws and barriers to trade can overshadow the impact and potential social, environmental and economic returns that investments in clean-energy distribution in the developing world can make The same poor governance and lack of rule of law that make investing in traditional power plants and grids too risky can also stall the bottom-up approach Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world Keys to success Two overarching keys to success are “start with lean social innovation that comes from the needs of the community you serve” and “build a selfsustaining market with a built-in exit strategy” Regarding the first key, every market – indeed, every village – is unique Outsiders wishing to develop clean-energy products or markets for the BoP must first understand current household energy needs and practices Empower Generation’s lean pilot project allowed us to fail fast and correct our model Each enterprise that Empower Generation supports is independently branded, owned and operated – they have different identities and can grow in different directions One advantage of this approach is that if one business fails, it will not bring down the entire network’s reputation The independent identities of the businesses we support fit the vision of a community-led, bottom-up energy transition The willingness to try new ideas quickly and without a massive investment remains important, especially since technology rapidly evolves Most importantly, our willingness to listen to the ideas of the entrepreneurs we support, follow their business plans and take their advice on how best to reach out to their communities as customers is what allows us to be successful So many well-intentioned development projects fail because the needs, concerns, opinions and motivations of the beneficiaries are not properly integrated A great piece of technology is nothing but an object without the appropriate contextual understanding of how to advertise, distribute and use it This year, in partnership with Mercy Corps Nepal and funded by the UK’s Department for International Development, Empower Generation is piloting and extending its training programme to girls who had to drop out of school before getting their high-school diploma These girls will become sales agents, servicing 30 schools in Kailali District, in one of Nepal’s poorest regions, where the education rates for girls are lowest Girls will sell solar lights at their schools to current students and teachers to improve and extend study time The second key is to always be driving towards a self-sustaining market It surprises people (particularly potential investors) to hear us say that our goal is to become redundant in the markets we create People in Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world developing countries can and must run their own solar show, especially at the retail level Clean-energy markets cannot work if they rely on foreign aid and management indefinitely Therefore, the capacity building of local people to own and operate business in their way is crucial One lesson from international development efforts in the 20th century was a shift away from trying to offer solutions towards building local capacity to solve problems Customers certainly see the benefits of solar versus kerosene lighting, but to serve them over the long term, local actors must be profiting from the value chain and be incentivised to provide after-sales service to their customers Empower Generation helps its entrepreneurs register their business independently and we aim to provide all the tools and training they need to eventually feel confident operating their business on their own One goal for Empower Generation is to use clean energy as an opportunity to bring about a gender-equal economy Women around the world are trapped in restrictive gender roles, with limited local economic opportunities With household energy management falling largely on the shoulders of women, clean power to the people means a chance for women to become leaders of the energy sector, which would be good for the entire world According to The Economist, women entering the workforce in the developed world have contributed more to global GDP growth over the past few decades than any other factor, including the internet or the rise of China and India.6 Training local women to be clean-energy entrepreneurs who create local economic opportunity is a huge social boon Pabitra, Empower Generation’s second entrepreneur, has three daughters who inspired her solar business’s name: Tri Urja, or “Three Powers” Watching their mother step out of the traditional Nepali gender roles as a housewife and social Clean power is a chance for women to become leaders of the energy sector Regional vistas Empowering women to power the world volunteer and grow in capacity and confidence as an income-generating business owner has increased her daughters’ expectations for themselves and their future Solar power from the people and for the people is brightening the world in more ways than one Related essay Energy efficiency The rest of the iceberg > Amory B Lovins Bennett Cohen is a member of Shell’s Future Energy team He is also is the chair and co-founder of Empower Generation He has worked with Rocky Mountain Institute, Shell, CPower and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Cohen graduated from Delft University of Technology (the Netherlands) and Columbia University (USA) Anya Cherneff is executive director and co-founder of Empower Generation She has also been a founder and associate director of the Human Trafficking Clinic and a Princeton-in-Asia fellow in Malaysia She holds a Master’s degree in Human Rights from the University of Denver (USA) and a Bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from Columbia University (USA) References Estimates vary, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTENERGY2/0,,contentMDK:22855502~pagePK:210058~piPK:210062~theSitePK:4114200,00.html UNDP (1995) Human development report, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/ iles/reports/256/hdr_1995_en_complete_nostats.pdf http://e360.yale.edu/feature/solar_power_off_the_grid_energy_access_for_ worlds_poor/2480/ A.K Pokhrel (2010) Tuberculosis and indoor biomass and kerosene use in Nepal: A case-control study, Environ health perspect., 118, 558-564.doi: 10.1289/ehp.0901032 A.B Lovins (2003) Small is proitable: The hidden economic beneits of making electrical resources the right size, Rocky Mountain Institute: Snowmass, CO Women in the workforce: The importance of sex, The Economist, 12 April 2006 Imprint The colours of energy Disclaimer The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and not necessarily relect those of Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries (Shell) Acknowledgements The editors of this volume wish to express their gratitude to the contributing authors who all enthusiastically accepted our invitation to write about a topic relating to their particular expertise and put it in the broader context of the challenges of energy, progress and sustainability We hope that this collection of essays thereby sheds new light on what are perhaps the most compelling questions of our time We thank Peter van Boesschoten, Jennifer Spruijt and Manon van den Berg for their help in coordinating this project; NoSuchCompany for the compelling design; Bas den Hond, Ted Alkins, Julie Belding and Jeanne Daniele for their clear editing of the texts; Julian Bates for his language advice and precise corrections; and Yulia Knol for her valuable assistance in the inal stage of the production Design and production > Shell Production Centre of Excellence Proofreading > SI-CX Translations Formatting and distribution > Whitefox Publisher > Shell International BV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands Copyright © 2014 and 2015 Shell International BV (of the collection) Copyright in each essay is either owned by Shell International BV or the respective author All rights reserved Imprint The colours of energy This ebook is an extended and updated version of The colours of energy – Essays on the future of our energy system, which appeared in print in 2014 on the occasion of the celebration of 100 years of research and innovation by Shell in Amsterdam ISBN 978-90-823984-0-3 (epub3) ... Introduction Energy and climate change are deining challenges of this century Energy and society Futures past and present We need to rethink economics and geopolitics The inevitability and morality... capture and storage, religion and sustainability, the geology of climate change, mobility and transport, and energy efficiency And while there is a good deal of discussion about oil and gas, and. .. Sam Fankhauser and Mallika Ishwaran Futures past and present Some thoughts on the year 2000 The future as seen half a century ago > James Lovelock Living in overshoot A forecast and the desire