Epistemic community in the mekong river commission a study of the mrc epistemic community on hydropower development in the mainstream mekong river

EPISTEMIC COMMUNITY IN THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION A study of the MRC epistemic community on hydropower development in the mainstream Mekong river M.Sc Thesis by Luu Thi Tang Date: 21st August, 2017 Water Systems and Global Change Group Frontpage images: The author re-designs based on the images retrieved from the internet (see reference) “You have to take care of both economic development of the people by catering for the livelihood and social issues for the people also considering to minimize the impacts on the environment” (E1, Interview) “Come and see the Mekong before it … gets completely dammed!” (E2, Interview) “I also think it can be done too fast … the pace of development … scares me sometimes because I don’t think those countries who are fairly new to hydropower … they don’t have the experience that you gain over decades of understanding how the risks are arise and how best to manage those ” (E3, Interview) “If you use the whole system then the reproduction fails, the migration fails so the whole resilience of the system is degraded to a level where it cannot sustain sufficiently any longer Common agenda first would be a better political slogan … the nature is the basis for the long term survival and benefit of the people” (E4, Interview) “The Mekong is a very large and resilient river system … it adjusts it adapts so some developments of it will not kill it” (E5, Interview) EPISTEMIC COMMUNITY IN THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION A study of the MRC epistemic community on hydropower development in the mainstream Mekong river Master Thesis Water Systems and Global Change Group in partial fulfillment of the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Science master program at Wageningen University, the Netherlands Name: Lư u Thị Tặ ng Date: 21st August, 2017 Supervisors: Erik van Slobbe Water Systems and Global Change Jos Timmerman Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission Preface It is an interesting journey to a Master thesis At some moments, it was very difficult to find out what to next I even got lost many times But I have learnt that time, hard-working and enough thinking are crucial for the information and understanding to transfer into ideas Though sometimes it was frustrating, it was worthy to start this journey To future students who are going to a Master thesis, I would like to say believe on the pathway you choose, keep going and you will arrive where you deserve to be I would like to thank my thesis supervisors Erik van Slobbe and Jos Timmerman who have been supporting me throughout the research and encouraging me to keep on going I would like to thank the experts who responded to my invitations and agreed to the interview, especially the experts who validated the list and introduced me to other people Your sharing plays a crucial part, not only contribute to my research findings, but also broaden my mind and beliefs I would like to thank friends, colleagues and other fellow students, especially Dzung, Long and Mark who helped me doing the interview tests and gave valuable comments Everyone has given me the best piece of their help; the rest of the performance totally depends on my capability Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission Summary The cooperation between riparian countries in the Mekong region through the Mekong River Commission is ineffective Thus, efforts aimed at solving transboundary problems caused by hydropower development remain fragmented and ineffective Main reasons are related to the knowledge factor including a lack of common understanding between key decision makers and insufficient human and technical resources in the region Several authors suggest epistemic communities could help to generate common perceptions between actors Even though some authors have recognized the existence of the MRC epistemic community, the understanding about its characteristics is limited Therefore, the research first aims to fill in the gap by discovering the main features of the MRC epistemic community: shared causal beliefs and shared policy goals This will contribute to the understanding the role of the knowledge factor in international water regimes Based on that, recommendations are formulated to improve cooperation in the region and facilitate a better decision-making process Literature review, social network analysis and experts interview are used to reach the abovementioned aims First, roles and activities of the MRC are elucidated using mostly documents published on the MRC website, following by the identification of the membership and potential key experts of the network Next, the causal beliefs and policy goals are retrieved from the key expert interviews Findings of this research have shown that the MRC experts community resembles a discipline group rather than an epistemic community in Haas definition The community is dominated by international experts The experts come from multi disciplines with many experts having backgrounds of more than one discipline They share causal beliefs and policy goals regarding hydropower development on the mainstream Mekong river to a limited extent However, they disagree on many topics Furthermore, the linkages between the causal beliefs and policy goals of the community are fragmented Therefore, the MRC epistemic community either does not exist or exists only to a very limited extent The most important reason to explain for the findings is the lack of common understanding on the regional basic knowledge This leads to incoherent policy advice among the experts Therefore, policy makers prefer to solve the problems based on their own interests and political merits rather than experts’ advice An improvement of education and investment in basic research in the region are recommended to overcome this drawback This will require the shared commitment of the member countries to cooperate for the long-term benefits of the whole region Keywords: Mekong River Commission, Mekong river, Mekong region, Mekong basin, epistemic community, international water regime, hydropower, hydropower development, transboundary water regime, water governance Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission TABLE OF CONTENTS List of figures and tables List of abbreviations Chapter Introduction .3 1.1 Background information 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 Background and general issues Problems related to hydropower development The cooperation in the region through the Mekong regime 1.2 Literature review on the epistemic community in the Mekong region 1.3 Problem statement and research objectives .8 1.4 Conceptual framework .8 1.4.1 1.4.2 1.4.3 1.4.4 Conceptualization of Haas’ epistemic community definition The role of ECs in international regime formation Role of ECs in international water regime formation .10 Identifying an EC 10 1.5 Research questions 12 Chapter Methodology 13 2.1 Reasons 13 2.2 Literature review and social network analysis 14 2.3 Interview experts 15 2.4 Interview data analysis 16 Chapter Results 18 3.1 Literature review 18 3.1.1 3.1.2 Role of the MRC in the hydropower development 18 Potential network of the MRC EC 20 3.2 Interviews 21 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 Impacts of hydropower development .21 Decision-making process 28 Mitigation strategies 31 Role and future development of hydropower 34 Chapter Discussion 36 4.1 The characteristics of the MRC EC 36 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 Causal beliefs on hydropower development 36 Policy goals on hydropower development 40 The characteristics of the MRC epistemic community 44 4.2 An examination of the results in relation to existing research 46 4.3 Reflection on the research performed 47 4.3.1 4.3.2 Limitations 47 Values .49 Chapter Conclusions and recommendations 51 5.1 Main conclusions 51 5.2 Recommendations 53 References 55 Annexes 59 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission List of figures and tables Table Summary of Mekong regime (Source: Browder & Ortolano, 2000, p.530) Table Distinguish between epistemic communities and other groups (Source: Haas P., 1992) 11 Table List of topics 16 Table Rules on emotional icons .17 Table Rules of assessment .17 Table The ISH teams (Source: MRC, 2017) 19 Table Opinions on sediment transport 22 Table Opinions on Fish and aquatic species 23 Table Opinions on Flow regime .24 Table 10 Opinions on Water quality 26 Table 11 Opinions on Uncertainties on the impacts 27 Table 12 Opinions on Factors influence decision-making process 28 Table 13 Opinions on Role of different stakeholders .30 Table 14 Opinions on Technical strategies .31 Table 15 Opinions on Strategies related to effected communities 32 Table 16 Opinions on Other strategies .33 Table 17 Opinions on General views on hydropower development 34 Table 18 Summary of opinions on sediment transport 36 Table 19 Summary of opinions on Fish and aquatic species 37 Table 20 Summary of opinions on Flow regime .37 Table 21 Summary of opinions on Water quality .38 Table 22 Summary of opinions on Uncertainties .38 Table 23 Summary of opinions on factors influencing the decision-making process .39 Table 24 The extent of sharing causal beliefs related to hydropower impacts 39 Table 25 Summary of opinions on Level of importance 40 Table 26 Summary of opinions on Technical strategies to mitigate impacts 41 Table 27 Summary of opinions on Strategies related to effected communities 41 Table 28 Summary of opinions on Other strategies 41 Table 29 Summary of opinions on role of stakeholders 42 Table 30 Summary of opinions on role and future development of hydropower 42 Table 31 the extent of shared policy goals on hydropower development .43 Table 32 Linkages between causal beliefs and policy goals .44 Figure Mekong river basin (Source: EOS, 2016) Figure Proposed dams in the MRB (Source: MRC, 2016e) .5 Figure Research framework 13 Figure PNPCA procedure of hydropower dam construction 18 Figure Percentage of regional and international experts………………………………………………………………………….20 Figure Countries where ISH - MRC experts are from 20 Figure Percentage of different expertise of the ISH-MRC experts………………………………………………………….….20 Figure Compare between single and multi-disciplines 20 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission List of abbreviations DMP EC FQ ISH LM LMB MRC MRCS NMC NGOs PNPCA SQ RQ Decision-making process Epistemic community Follow question Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower Lower Mekong Lower Mekong Basin Mekong river commission MRC Secretariat National Mekong Committee Non-Governmental Organizations Prior Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement Sub-research question Research question Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission Chapter Introduction The Mekong region is crucial not only for millions of riparian’s inhabitants but also for thousands of species living in this diverse ecosystem Building dams on the mainstream Mekong would create lots of transboundary problems that cause potential damage to the people’s livelihoods and disrupt the life cycle of species It requires the cooperation between the member countries to mitigate these impacts However, the cooperation currently remains weak (Schmeier, 2012) This drives a demand to improve the cooperation to help develop the region and protect the environment simultaneously In the introduction chapter, I will first describe general background information on the crucial role of the river, the potential transboundary risks of hydropower development on the mainstream Mekong river, the current cooperation between riparian countries and how the concept epistemic community contribute to improve this cooperation Next, current studies related to the epistemic community in the Mekong region will be examined as a basic for the problem statement and aims of this research Then I will explain the conceptual framework of epistemic community Based on that, I form research questions at the end of the chapter 1.1.Background information 1.1.1 Background and general issues The Mekong river, which flows around 4,400 km and drains a total of 795,000 km2 land area in Southeast Asia, is the tenth-largest river in the world It starts in Tibetan Plateau, flows along the border of Laos-Myanmar, Laos–Thailand which forms the upper Mekong basin Downstream it enters the lower Mekong basin (LMB) comprised of Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam Finally, it discharges into the South China Sea (figure 1) (MRC, 2016a; Schmeier, 2012) The Mekong is home to more than 80 million people in total including 60 million living in the lower part (MRC, 2016a) The total population is expected to rise to more than 100 million by 2025 (Schmeier, 2012) Together with other rivers, the Mekong has contributed to defining the cultures, religions, life styles and livelihoods of the Figure Mekong river basin (Source: EOS, 2016) people of Southeast Asia (Molle, Foran, & Kakonen, 2012) Most of the tributaries (around 100) are located in the lower basin and contribute more than 80% of the river flow (35% from Laos, 18% from Cambodia, 18% from Thailand and 11% from Vietnam) Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission However, the flow from the upstream basin is also very important, especially in the dry season when it accounts for 24% The significant difference between flows in the wet and dry season leads to floods and water shortages respectively (Schmeier, 2012) The flood season (normally from JuneNovember) is very important for the lower Mekong basin as it creates key ecosystems, such as wetland habitats, which are quintessential for life-cycles of many fish species Besides, the flood season also brings floods which benefit agriculture and fishery that provide livelihoods for about 75% of the basin’s population (Öjendal, 2000; Hirsch et al., 2006; Osborne, 2009; Menniken and Schmeier, 2010) Having a high dependence on water for agriculture has led to water allocation being the key collective problem which causes conflicts in the region (Schmeier, 2012) Water allocation highly depends on the infrastructural development, especially building dam systems for hydropower in the upstream countries (Osborne, 2009) If all proposed dams were built, we will have an intensive dam system on the Mekong river (picture 2) Building hydropower dam systems is considered the most important causal factor that reduces the standard of livelihoods, by impacting fisheries, agriculture and forestry of riparian inhabitants (Middleton et al., 2009; Molle et al., 2012; Schmeier, 2012) These issues not only have an effect on water users but also on the river’s ecosystem of all riparian countries An overview of problems from hydropower development will be elaborated in the next section 1.1.2 Problems related to hydropower development Current economic and population growth in the Mekong region coupled with the high price of fossil fuels has led to a high demand for hydropower (Molle et al., 2012; Kuenzer et al, 2013; van Genugten, 2015) Besides, hydropower is viewed as one of the most important means to improve the national economy in Laos and Cambodia; therefore, hydropower plants have been promoted and put back on the agenda of the Mekong region, especially in Laos (van Genugten, 2015; Hirsch, 2016) However, the benefits of Mekong hydropower generation seem to be exaggerated since some research has raised concerns that the mainstream dams contribute little to nothing to the economy (Costanza et al., 2011; Hirsch, 2016) Researchers also claim that the supposed connection between dams building and livelihoods improvement has been based on an insufficient number of examples (Molle et al., 2012) Other than that, many researchers are concerned that the environmental and social impacts exceed the economic benefits (Hirsch, 2016) Regarding the environmental impacts, the cumulate effects of all dams if built would have severe impacts on the lower Mekong such as altering the natural flow patterns, reducing sediment load, disrupting fisheries and other ecosystem services (Grumbine, Dore, & Xu, 2012; Kuenzer et al, 2013; Lynch, 2016) MRC’s Strategic Environmental Assessment has projected that the loss from the impacts on agriculture and fisheries would be equal to $500 million/year and 50 - 75% of sediment load would be trapped behind the dams (Grumbine and Xu, 2011) Lynch (2016) has proved that the construction of the dam cascade in China reduces the water level in the downstream countries Besides, this also causes flooding the reservoirs behind the dams, altering landscape upstream, bank erosion and reducing water quality (Lynch, 2016) Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission subjects and then selected the topics I wanted to analyse Besides, I personally think this depends a lot on the experts’ will which could go beyond my interview techniques Some experts were willing to share what they thought, some experts preferred to give facts and arguments as organization’s representatives Nevertheless, one other measure was to guarantee them anonymity so that nothing they said in the interviews could have negative repercussions for them The measure has ensured that the experts would feel free to speak their mind and depart from the official lines when that did not match their own opinions Therefore, I strongly believe that most of the experts spoke out their personal opinions during the interviews Fourth, the data is limited in terms of the network of experts and the answers for the sub-topics Some information of some experts such as regional or international and expertise was not found Besides, some experts did not mention all the sub-topics However, I already got some clues that support for the hypothesis there might be multiple epistemic communities in the MRC based on the interview with another expert who is not in the list Therefore, if I got more data input about the number and diverse experts to interview and if all information was filled in, the result might change There might be another EC that promotes for different goals Finally, the rules of assessment are limited in few cases which suit the results of my research This might cause confusion and wonder from the readers One particular difficulty is dealing with the missing data Though has some limitations, this research with an effort to contribute to human welfare as well as environmental protection has managed to result in some values as stated in the next section 4.3.2 Values This research has both social and scientific values First, the research enriches the body of scientific knowledge about the role of knowledge factor on international water regimes by exploring the characteristics of the epistemic community in one of the biggest river in Asia - the Mekong So far, the role of epistemic communities on formation of transboundary river regime has been introduced on two case study in Europe by Lindemann Therefore, this research could be a starting point to develop the framework related to the role of knowledge factor on transboundary water regime on other rivers in Asia as well as other regions Second, the research has explored the epistemic community on hydropower development which has never been studied in details before Though has been developed for a long time, hydropower still encompasses lots of uncertainties and could highly impact on ecosystem and people’s livelihoods The concept epistemic community could provide a useful framework to analyse the impacts as well as offer sound strategies to improve the development of hydropower Therefore, my research results as well as methodology could be a starting point for further studies Third, the research’s findings have contributed to explain why the cooperation in the Mekong region remains ineffective, followed by the suggestions of improving the basic knowledge in the region An improvement of the knowledge factor would also improve the bargaining position of 49 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission downstream countries in the negotiations with upstream hegemons to facilitate for better benefit sharing mechanisms in the region Besides aforementioned values, this research has contributed to my personal learning process The first skill I gained is developing a research methodology Haas did not give a clear methodology to study the epistemic community Therefore, it was very difficult, sometimes not feasible to test all the criteria Nevertheless, I, with support from my supervisors, developed the methodology to test the existence of the epistemic community Though the methodology has some limitations, I at least tried to test the existence of the epistemic community which the other authors neglected The second one is improvement of the snowballing technique I unintentionally used the snowballing technique to collect the data as aforementioned However, I did literature review to prepare the potential experts list before seeking the validation from the experts This reduces the bias limitation of the technique The third one is skill in communication with experts I did not know any of the experts in advance and they were very busy But in the end, I managed to interview six experts which was more than my goals (five experts) The results and discussion in this and previous chapters will be used to draw final conclusions and recommendations in the next chapter 50 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission Chapter Conclusions and recommendations This research first aims to study the characteristics of the MRC epistemic community regarding hydropower development in the mainstream Mekong river Second, the research seeks to improve cooperation in the Mekong region through enlarging the role of the knowledge factor in the region The characteristics of the MRC epistemic community following the definition of Haas have been identified by testing two criteria: shared causal beliefs and shared policy goals in different topics related to hydropower development To achieve the aims, I first identified the roles and activities of the MRC to find the network of experts on hydropower development by literature review Second, I selected a list of key experts based on literature review and recommendation from other experts to contact for doing the interviews The interviews were conducted with questions on many topics that related to hydropower development The topics were divided into four categories: impacts of hydropower development, decision-making process, mitigation strategies and role and future development of hydropower I then interviewed five key experts and one regional expert Finally, I compared and assessed the level of agreement among the experts on the aforementioned topics based on a set of rules of assessment Based on the results and discussions in the previous chapters, I will first present the final conclusions of this research, then recommend on further activities to improve cooperation in the Mekong region as well as further research 5.1.Main conclusions The MRC has limited power in the decision-making process regarding hydropower development by member states Instead, it plays the role of supporting member countries to make decisions In the Prior Notification Prior Consultation and Agreement procedure, the MRC Secretariat plays the central role in providing scientific support for the MRC Joint Committee, MRC Council and member countries Among a wide range of activities arranged by the MRC Secretariat to fulfil these roles, the Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower is considered to be the central vehicle for coordination of several cross-cutting activities on hydropower Therefore, this team is considered pivotal for the potential network of the MRC epistemic community The community’s network is dominated by international experts At least more than half of them come from outside of the Mekong region, mostly from developed countries Besides, most of the important positions such as team leaders and key experts are held by the international experts They have played an important role in improving the understanding of different stakeholders in the region about the magnitude of and the challenge to mitigate the impacts from hydropower development The expert community composes of a wide range of different disciplines including social and natural disciplines Among them, striking is the number of experts with expertise related to hydropower, water resources and environmental science Besides, the experts are trained or experienced so they gain a broad background knowledge The number of experts who have more than one discipline 51 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission accounts for at least one third of the experts The variety of disciplines and broad background knowledge may enable the experts to deal with the complex interlinkages of the problems related to hydropower development The experts share causal beliefs on hydropower impacts to a small extent: 1st, sediments are crucial for everything, from the ecosystem to livelihoods of riparian people; 2nd, water quality is mostly effected by other development activities such as agriculture or urbanization 3rd, sediments are strongly influenced by the Chinese dams And 4th, member countries with different interests have a great influence the on decision-making The experts not share lots of cause-effect understandings on hydropower impacts Most of the understandings are related to the scientific knowledge of the experts First, they disagree on the impact of sediment reduction on the Mekong delta Second, they have different understanding on the fish’s adaptive capability to the reservoir environment which is very much related to their specific expertise Third, they compare the impacts of the mainstream and tributaries dams on flow regime differently as well as impacts on water quality Fourth, they not share their opinions on national-first policy and notions about regional and international experts The experts share policy goals on hydropower development to a limited extent First, they agree on the high importance of impacts on sediment transport and aquatic species Second, they agree on the need for strengthening cooperation between different stakeholders The experts not share many policy goals related to hydropower development These unshared goals are related to their specific understanding on the cause-effect relations as well as their principled beliefs The unshared goals that related to their scientific knowledge include: 1st, different views on flow regime and water quality; and 2nd, disagreement on mitigation measures for sediment reduction The unshared goals that related to their principled beliefs include: 1st, conflict views on the role of some stakeholders (experts, NGOs and advocacy groups and the MRC); and 2nd, opposite views on the resilience of the river system, role and future development of hydropower The linkages between causal beliefs and policy goals of the community are fragmented though a few linkages can be drawn including: sediments are crucial for everything, therefore, impact on sediment transport is highly important; the different interests of member countries strongly influence the decision-making, therefore, there is a need to strengthen the cooperation between them This reflects the significant disagreement among the experts on both causal beliefs and policy goals Therefore, the MRC epistemic community either does not exist or exists only to a very limited extent Instead, the MRC expert community somewhat resembles a discipline group rather than an epistemic community in Haas definition The conclusions of the research have contributed to explain why the MRC expert community has not managed to exert its power on regional politics The reason could be the lack of basic knowledge about the Mekong region leads to no common understanding and incoherent policy advice among the experts This reduces the influence of the expert’s advice on the regional decision makers Thus, decision makers prefer to solve problems based on their own interests and political merits over 52 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission knowledge factor The knowledge factor has not gained proper influence and attention in the Mekong region 5.2.Recommendations To improve the cooperation between riparian countries The role of the MRC in decision making process should be strengthened by improving sharing causal beliefs and policy goals between the experts To achieve this, several aspects should be implemented including: First, strengthen the capability of the regional experts in the MRC This could be done by the recruitment phase being transparent and selecting proper candidates But more is improving the capability of the regional experts in general by improving the quality of education in the region This requires a long time, great efforts, resources and systemic implementation Besides, the countries can send their people to study abroad through bilateral agreements or aid programs Second, investing in research to improve understanding about the basic knowledge in the Mekong region This helps reducing uncertainties between the experts and between policy makers as well as facilitating dialogues aimed at reaching consensus among them The research will benefit the whole region; therefore, it should be funded by all riparian countries Besides, this requires the cooperation between the countries in sharing information and monitoring This will be feasible only when the members commit to cooperate and are willing to invest for long-term benefits For further research In this research, I only tested two criteria including causal beliefs and policy goals However, in the answers of the experts, sometimes, I recognized some aspects of principled beliefs Therefore, it is doable for the future research to test the shared principled beliefs criteria All interviewees in my research are experts The future research can approach the decision makers and try to get access to the diplomatic briefing documents to identify potential key members Interviews with more experts should ensure that the samples could be representative for the community Future research can also study the experts and other actors outside of the MRC Besides, due to the interlinkages between hydropower and other sectors, the MRC expert community might be influenced by the knowledge from multi disciplines Thus, future research could test the existence of epistemic communities on other domains such as climate change in the MRC using this methodology It would require further improvement to develop a more comprehensive methodology by improving the interview questions, the topics, the sub-topics list and especially the rules of assessment It might also be helpful to apply the causal mapping and network analysis method as suggested by Haas This research aims to explore the role of the knowledge factor on international water regimes The findings have shown limited influence of the MRC expert community It might be worthwhile to 53 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission explore the role of other factors in the framework of Lindemann including power, interest and context-based explanatory factor as well as the policy diffusion in the knowledge factor I would strongly recommend future research to continue to use the interview method instead of surveys because the survey method could not ensure that the experts would give their personal opinions However, it is impossible to totally avoid diplomatic answers because this depends a lot on the goodwill of the experts as well Personal messages The most important reason that inspires me to choose this topic is to improve the human welfare as well as environmental standard of the Mekong region The interesting topic and meaningful purposes have highly motivated me to go on and find out the results though sometimes it was not easy Beside the recommendations draw upon the findings of the research, I would like to give some personal opinions as echoed with suggestions from the experts First, a clear and transparent benefit sharing mechanism between different interest groups as well as between the countries should be developed The benefits from the hydropower projects should be used to improve the local living standard by investing in education to improve awareness of the riparian people in general and to find other ways of providing for local livelihoods The benefits should also be shared with other riparian countries to compensate for their losses due to the transboundary impacts Second, it requires strong commitments of the riparian countries to work together for common benefits in the long-term Having transparent working mechanism for building trust is one of the most important aspects that all countries should always bear in mind I hope through this thesis report, the experts would have a chance to speak out what they truly think about hydropower development in the Mekong region Besides, their 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Database Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR MRC (2010) Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower (ISH) 2011-2015 Document Mekong River Commission online Available from [http://tinyurl com/o3xnj9o] Accessed December, 19, 2014 MRC (2016a) Mekong Basin Retrieve November 12, 2016 from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/mekong-basin/ MRC (2016b) History Retrieve November 17, 2016 from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/aboutmrc/history/ MRC (2016c) Governance and Organisational Structure Mekong River Commission Retrieve November 17, 2016 from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/about-mrc/governance-andorganisational-structure/ MRC (2016d) Strategic Plan 2016-2020 Phnom Penh, Cambodia/Vintiane, Lao PDR, Mekong River Commission Retrieve November 20, 2016 from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Publications/strategies-workprog/MRC-Stratigic-Plan2016-2020.pdf 57 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission MRC (2017) Initiative on sustainable hydropower Mekong River Commission Retrieve August 19, 2017 from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/about-mrc/completion-of-strategic-cycle-20112015/initiative-on-sustainable-hydropower/ Öjendal, J (2000) Sharing the Good-Modes of Managing Water Resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin University of Gothenburg Osborne, M (2009) The Mekong: river under threat Lowy Institute for International Policy Schmeier, S (2009) Regional cooperation efforts in the Mekong river basin: mitigating river-related security threats and promoting regional development Austrian Journal for Southeast Asian Studies, 2(2), 28-52 Schmeier, S (2012) Governing international watercourses: river basin organizations and the sustainable governance of internationally shared rivers and lakes Routledge Scott, J (2012) Social network analysis Sage Sebenius, J K (1992) Challenging conventional explanations of international cooperation: negotiation analysis and the case of epistemic communities International organization, 46(01), 323-365 Thim, L (2010) Dynamics of Planning Process in the Lower Mekong Basin: A Management Analysis for the Se San Sub-Basin (Doctoral dissertation, PhD: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-University of Bonn) Urban, F., Nordensvärd, J., Khatri, D., & Wang, Y (2013) An analysis of China’s investment in the hydropower sector in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region Environment, Development and Sustainability, 15(2), 301-324 Vaidyanathan, G (2011) Remaking the Mekong Nature, 478(7369), 305-307 van Genugten, B (2015) Power and hydropower development in the Lower Mekong Basin Zito, A R (2001) Epistemic communities, collective entrepreneurship and European integration Journal of European public policy, 8(4), 585-603 Image Cover page: Wikipedia (2014) About the Mekong Retrieved August 21, 2017 from: http://fishbio.com/about-the-mekong Other pictures in the cover page: retrieved August 25, 2017 from: http://www.publishyourarticles.net/eng/articles2/a-short-story-on-cooperation/2446/; http://www.luxurycruisemekong.com/tag/mekong-river/; http://www.publishyourarticles.net/eng/articles2/a-short-story-on-cooperation/2446/ MRC, 2016e Proposed mainstream dams Retrieved November http://www.mrcmekong.org/topics/sustainable-hydropower/ 58 12, 2016 from: Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission ANNEXES Annex Sensitivity in the Mekong region Since the start of this research, the author has been noticed about the complicated and sensitive nature of the political situation in the Mekong region This political sensitivity is mentioned repeatedly by many relevant actors including: my supervisor, regional experts, international experts and friends who used to work in the region Some of them refused to talk about it, some avoided doing the interviews and asked the author to speak anonymously For this reason, the author promised not to disclose any personal information of the interviewees Annex Interview questions Starting question: I would like you to introduce a bit about yourself and your specific role as an expert in the MRC A) General opinions on hydropower: What you think about hydropower energy? Following question (FQ)1: How is the role of HP in the developed and developing countries? FQ2: How should HP developed in the future? FQ3: What is the role of experts or scientists in the hydropower development? B) General opinions about hydropower dam construction in the mainstream Mekong river: How you view the recent hydropower development in the mainstream Mekong river? Currently, there are a number of proposed dams on the mainstream If all planned dams were built, what would be the impacts on the fragmentation of the Mekong river? FQ1: What would be impacts of the fragmentation on migratory species? FQ2: Which indicators you use to measure the level or the extend of the fragmentation of the river? What you consider to be the most important effects on the environment? How does climate change affect to the mainstream dam construction? What would be the impacts of hydropower dam construction on climate change? What are the current trends of water quality in the Mekong region? FQ1: How you see the trends in the future? What you consider to be the most important effects on society? Please elaborate on the reasons What would be impacts on agriculture? C) Understanding about specific impacts of Xayaburi or Don Sahong dam construction in the mainstream Mekong river There are several dam projects under the PNPCA procedures in the MRC including Xayaburi and Don Sahong Please indicate in which case you are familiar with If not, we can talk about the Laos cascade in general 10 Water quality: 59 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission 10a What would be the most important factors from the hydropower dam construction that cause changes in water quality? 11 Sediment transport: 11a What would be specific impacts on sediment transport in the Lower Mekong Region? 11b Can you elaborate more on the Mekong Delta Region? 12 Biodiversity 12a How you see the role of the biodiversity for the Mekong region? 12b What would be the impacts of the dam construction on the biodiversity? 13 Fish and aquatic species: 13a What would be impacts on aquatic species migration of the dam construction? 13b What would be impacts on the fishery? 14 What would be the social impacts of the (Xayaburi or Don Sahong) hydropower dam construction? 15 How you compare the impacts of the Chinese dam cascade and the Lower Mekong dams cascade? 16 What are uncertainties related to the environmental impacts of the dam construction? 17 Relate to solutions to reduce impacts of the dam construction: 17a What would be solutions to reduce the abovementioned impacts of the hydropower dam construction? FQ1: What would be technical solutions? FQ2: What could engineers contribute to mitigate these impacts? FQ3: What would be social solutions? FQ4: How you see the role of indigenous people in the social solutions (for example, in the benefit sharing between stakeholders)? 17b Which international hydropower dam construction examples would be suitable to apply in the Mekong region? FQ1: How these models solve the problems of sediment transport and fish migration? D) Questions about decision-making process: Policy making process here means any kinds of decisions made related to the hydropower dam construction, such as change in location, design, add some more features, etc 18 Would you recall some important moments where critical decisions about hydropower dam construction took place in the Mekong region? FQ1: What was the most concern issue in that decision-making process? 19 How you consider your role and your influence in the decision-making process? FQ1: Who would you consider to have influence on the decision makers? 20 What could improve policy making in the region? E) Questions about learning process within the Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower (ISH) team 21 How different experts work in the ISH team? Explanatory question: Do you have plenary discussion among experts for the same problems? (I just ask this if the expert answer in another direction) 22 How you think about the process of exchanging ideas and knowledge between experts in the ISH team? FQ1: Compared between the international experts and the regional experts, you see any knowledge gaps about the impacts of hydropower dam construction? 60 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission FQ2: Do you experience any frustration or difficult moments or cultural differences in your team working? FQ3: what you to facilitate when you have that kind of difficulty in your team work? 23 To what extend you are influenced by the regional context (such as regional experts, stakeholders and decision makers)? FQ1: What have you changed in your expertise and your perceptions while working in the Mekong region if anything? 24 Who would you consider to have influence on the Mekong expert’s community? F) Concluding questions: 25 What would be the best option in your opinion to develop the Mekong region? 26 What would be the message you would like to send to people about the Mekong region? Annex Rules of cleaning data Delete repeated parts, some not necessary phrases (e.g err, you know, or the phrases that I think the expert did not mean to say them…); Only keep the main points; keep the order of answers Change the original questions to the questions I actually asked in the interview Thus sometimes the questions were not 100% similar as the original ones Put (…) in between when I deleted some words, except for the words without meaning e.g err, you know; Annex List of sub-topics Topic Sediment transport Fish and aquatic species Flow regime Water quality Uncertainties Factors influence DMP Role of stakeholders Technical strategies Sub-topics Level of importance Level of importance Level of impact Level of important General views Compare with Chinese dams Reasons Spawning areas Cause-effect relations Cause-effect relation Impact on the Mekong delta Adapt to reservoir's environment Compare with tributaries dams Impacts from hydropower dams Effectiveness of mitigation measures Regional International experts Compare with Chinese dams Impacts from other activities Basic Total picture Cumulative impact information National Information Equity policy informing DMP Role of Role of indigenous NGOs and The MRCS professionals people advocacy groups Sediment Fish migration transport Strategies related to Locals' voice effected communities Other strategies Cause-effect relation Rehabilitation Common understanding For developed General views countries Cooperation Compare with tributaries dams Effect by other activities Impacts from Cumulative other activities impacts Fish productivity and diversity Future trends Scale and magnitude of impacts Member governments Key developers Benefit sharing mechanisms Trust building For developing countries Dam location and Mitigating fisheries design Resilience of the river Future development system Best options Annex Hydropower development on the agenda of the predecessors of the MRC’s Hydropower development was the inspiration for the establishment of the Mekong regime since it’s infant phase and continued to be the backbone throughout its operation until the establishment of the MRC (Dore, 2003: 425 cited in Backer, 2007 cited in Thim, 2010) After the World War II, the 61 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission United Nations established Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) in 1946 to promote economic development in the region They conducted research which resulted in a proposal to develop five primary dam projects (Pa Mong, Khemerat, Khone Falls, Sambor and Tonle Sap) in the mainstream Mekong At the same time, the US - with the desire to control and prevent the growth of communism in the region – appointed the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) to conduct research in which they proposed three most important projects: Pa Mong, Sambor and Tonle Sap (Molle et al., 2012) In 1957, the MC was established with participation of four governments (Cambodia, Laos, South Vietnam and Thailand) under the auspices of the ECAFE (Browder, 2000) In 1958, the US government signed an agreement with the MC to fund the first phase of the Pa Mong project In 1970, the MC published Indicative Basin Plan in which it proposed a list of 180 dam projects along the Mekong mainstream and tributaries These dams were expected to control flood, improve navigability and generate hydropower for industrialization Due to geopolitical changes in the region, MC was disbanded in 1975 and then re-established in 1978 in a new form called the Interim Mekong Committee (IMC) with three members Thailand, Laos and Vietnam (Molle et al., 2012; Browder, 2000) Hydropower development was back on the IMC agenda in 1980 when in one study it proposed to develop the mainstream cascade, once Cambodia re-joined the IMC (Molle et al., 2012) Multiple factors were considered in this study report including resettlement requirements, environmental conservation and flow reduction during peaking operations Among them, resettlement was the most important parameter (Interim Committee, 1990) However, in a study looking at alternatives in 1991 of the Compagnie Nationale du Rhône (France) and Acres International (Canada) under the auspices of the MRCS, it proposed to switch to run-of-river projects (Molle et al 2012) During 1990s, the region was gradually stabilized with more opportunities for development This attracted the international developers such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Western bilateral aid agencies to invest in aid and development programs for the region, especially on hydropower Recognizing this move, the four countries started to negotiate the process of cooperative programs to attract aids and other supportive programs (Molle et al., 2012) At the same time, Thailand’s rapid growth puts pressure on the government to speed up the hydropower and irrigation projects including dams building and diversion water from the Mekong river One example is the controversial Khong Chi Mun project With the advantage position as a strong economic upstream country, the Thai government, on the one hand, pushes forward the negotiation’s agenda to leave out the UNDP to neutralize the role of the international communities and the US, on the other hand, dissolve the veto power of the country members for hydropower dam in the mainstream The Thai’s interests are conflict with the benefits of the other three downstream members, lead to their opposition at the beginning However, using the bilateral diplomacy, Thailand managed to win over Laos and Cambodia, finally forced Vietnam to accept its strategy and replace the veto power by prior notification of development The long and complex negotiation resulted in the establishment of the Mekong River Commission based on the mandate of the 1995 Agreement with the new protocols of Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement (PNPCA) which is regulated in Article (Matthews & Geheb, 2014) 62 Epistemic community in the Mekong River Commission Annex A wide range of activities related to hydropower development in the MRC Events MRC regional stakeholder forum on Basin Development Planning Forum on Sustainable Hydropower Planning Regional Stakeholder Dialogue on Directions of the Strategic Plan 2011-2015 Regional Multi-Stakeholder Consultation on the MRC Hydropower Program Stakeholder Regional Workshop on Mitigation Assessment Consultation Proceedings Regional Multi-Stakeholder Consultation on the MRC Hydropower Program MRC consultation regarding mainstream Mekong dams Regional Scoping Workshop on Gender and Sustainable Hydropower Meeting of the MRC Council, Joint Meeting with the MRC Donor Consultative Group MRC Transboundary Dialogue Watershed Management International Conference Fish and Hydropower Regional Workshop ASIA 2006 - the International symposium on Water Resources and Renewable Energy Development in Asia Mekong2Rio 2012 Programs Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower Development of Guidelines for Hydropower Environmental Impact Mitigation and Risk Management in the Lower Mekong Mainstream and Tributaries Guidelines for the evaluation of Hydropower and Multi-purpose project portfolios 63 ... EPISTEMIC COMMUNITY IN THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION A study of the MRC epistemic community on hydropower development in the mainstream Mekong river Master Thesis Water Systems and Global Change Group in. .. of the MRC is the weakness in decision making and the connection between regional and national implementation This is due to several reasons including lack of human and technical capacity of the. .. afar and then just don’t think the experts have any potential developments way makers and often saying anything they want They influence on the decision makers and and international experts inputs