Risk attitudes and perceptions on extreme weather events of small scale farmers in siniloan laguna philippines

THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY NICOLE ALEXIA VERIDIANO DE CASTRO RISK ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS ON EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS OF SMALL-SCALE FARMERS IN SINILOAN, LAGUNA, PHILIPPINES BACHELOR THESIS Study Mode: Full-time Major: Environmental Science and Management Faculty: Advanced Education Program Office Batch: 2015 – 2018 Thai Nguyen, 25/09/2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research would not have been made possible without the help of my advisers namely Asst Prof Maricel A Tapia and Ms Nguyen Thi Thu Huong, as well as Dr Nikki H Dagamac and Gerard Navarro for their statistical help and unnerving faith, patience and support on me I would also like to thank my family (Mom, Dad, Jules and Kuya Jason) for their support The Redeña-Santos Family (Tito Jhun, Tita Annie, Kuya PJ, Ate Darla, Carlo, Paulo and Peterd), the Redeña-Valdenarro Family (Tita Issa, Noreen, Noriel and Nhica), the Corpuz Family and the Lanzador Family for their care and support and being my second family in Laguna I would also like to thank my friends (Carlo, Hannah, Alex, Jeanne, Ate Colleene, Mark and Kuya Jose) for their help when I needed a hand and for keeping me sane in general NICOLE ALEXIA VERIDIANO DE CASTRO i TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures v List of Tables vi List of Abbreviations ix Part I Introduction 1.1 Research Rationale 1.1 Research Questions 1.2 Research Objectives 1.3 Significance of the Study 1.4 Hypotheses 1.5 Scope and Limitations .6 1.6 Definition of Terms Part II Review of Related Literature 2.1 Extreme Weather Events and its Effects on Agriculture 2.1.1 Extreme Weather Events 2.2 Risk Perception among Farmers .12 2.2.1 Risk Perception 12 2.2.2 2.3 Measurement and Determinant for Risk Perception 15 Risk Attitude among Farmers 16 2.3.1 Risk Attitude 16 2.3.2 Measurement and Determinant for Risk Attitude 18 2.4 Conceptual Framework 19 Part III Methodology 20 3.1 Materials 20 3.1.1 Farm Survey Questionnaire 20 3.1.2 Qualitative Pre-Survey: Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and Key Informant Interviews (KII) .20 3.2 Description of the Study Area 21 3.3 Selection of Respondents 22 3.4 Data Gathering 25 3.5 Method of Analysis and Data Presentation .26 ii 3.5.1 Quantitative Analysis .26 3.5.2 Qualitative Analysis 26 Part IV Results and Discussion 29 4.1 Profile of Respondents 29 4.1.1 Socio-economic profile 29 4.1.2 Farm profile 29 4.2 Risks to Farming and Adaptation Strategies 37 4.2.1 Risks to Farming .37 4.2.2 Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on production 41 4.2.3 Adaptation Strategies 52 4.2.3.1 Adaptation Strategies to Pests .52 4.2.3.2 Adaptation Strategies to Extreme Weather Events .55 4.2.4 Key farm production decisions 69 4.2.5 Climate’s influence on crop production decisions 72 4.3 Risk Perception and Risk Attitude 75 4.3.1 Risk Perception to Extreme Weather Events 75 4.3.1.1 Extreme Weather Events experienced by the Farmers 75 4.3.1.2 Likelihood of occurrence 77 4.3.1.3 Potential loss 84 4.3.2 Risk Attitude to Extreme Weather Events 99 A Number of Adaptation Strategies 99 B Nature of the Adaptation Strategies 100 4.4 Analysis 103 4.4.1 Relationship of Risk Perception, Risk Attitude and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Rice Farmers 103 4.4.2 Relationship of Risk Perception, Risk Attitude and Socio-economic Characteristics of Vegetable Farmers 106 4.4.3 Overall results 107 4.4.4 Risk Attitude and Perception and Agricultural Practices .110 4.4.4.1 Risk Perception and Agricultural Practices 110 4.4.4.2 Risk Attitude and Agricultural Practices 115 iii Part V Conclusion and Recommendations 117 5.1 Conclusion .117 5.2 Recommendations 119 References 121 Appendices 130 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Conceptual framework 19 Figure 2: Slope map of Siniloan, Laguna highlighting the study areas (CLUP, 2013) 22 Figure 3: Risk matrix 27 Figure 4: Impacts of drought on rice farmers .42 Figure 5: Impacts of drought on vegetable farmers 43 Figure 6: Impacts of typhoon on rice farmers .44 Figure 7: Impacts of typhoon on vegetable farmers .45 Figure 8: Impacts of excessive rains on rice farmers 46 Figure 9: Impacts of excessive rains on vegetable farmers 47 Figure 10: Impacts of flood on rice farmers 48 Figure 11: Impacts of flood on vegetable farmers 49 Figure 12: Surveyed rice farmers' perception on the probability of different sources of climate risk (1 = very low, = very high) Source: Data on surveyed farmers 81 Figure 13: Surveyed vegetable farmers' perception on the probability of different sources of climate risk (1 = very low, = very high) Source: Data on surveyed farmers 84 Figure 14: Surveyed rice farmers’ perception on the overall potential loss of production in rice farming due to extreme weather events 87 Figure 15: Surveyed vegetable farmers’ perception on the overall potential loss of production in vegetable farming due to extreme weather events 90 Figure 16: Overall risk perception of the rice farmers on different climatic hazards in farming 94 Figure 17: Overall risk perception of the vegetable farmers on different climatic hazards in farming .97 Figure 18: Overall results of rice and vegetable farmers' risk perception based on the number of adaptation strategies 100 Figure 19: Risk attitude of rice farmers towards extreme weather events 101 Figure 20: Risk attitude of vegetable farmers towards extreme weather events 102 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Sampling distribution of the rice farmers in each elevation gradient .24 Table 2: Sampling distribution of the vegetable farmers in each elevation gradient 24 Table 3: Risk score and their definitions on the probability and potential loss 27 Table 4: Risk perception risk score multiplying the probability and potential loss .27 Table 5: Socio-economic characteristics of rice farmer-respondents 30 Table 6: Socio-economic characteristics of vegetable farmer-respondents 32 Table 7: Farm profile of rice farmer-respondents 35 Table 8: Farming profile of vegetable farmer-respondents 37 Table 9: Perceived risks to farming by rice farmer-respondents 38 Table 10: Perceived risks to farming by vegetable farmer-respondents .39 Table 11: Adaptation strategies of experienced rice farmers on the impacts of field rats .53 Table 12: Adaptation strategies of rice farmers on the impacts of birds 54 Table 13: Adaptation strategies of experienced rice farmers on the impacts of insects54 Table 14: Adaptation strategies of experienced vegetable farmers on the impacts of field rats 55 Table 15: Adaptation strategies of experienced vegetable farmers on the impacts of insects 55 Table 16: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on drought 57 Table 17: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on drought 58 Table 18: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on drought 59 Table 19: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on drought .59 Table 20: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on typhoon .60 Table 21: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on typhoon 61 Table 22: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on typhoon 62 Table 23: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on typhoon 62 Table 24: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on excessive rains 64 Table 25: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on excessive rains 64 Table 26: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on excessive rains 66 vi Table 27: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on excessive rains 66 Table 28: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on flood 67 Table 29: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on flood 68 Table 30: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on flood 69 Table 31: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on flood 69 Table 32: Factors that influence rice farmers’ key crop production decisions .70 Table 33: Factors that influence vegetable farmers’ key farming production decisions .71 Table 34: Crop production decisions influenced by climate variability and extremities on rice farmers 73 Table 35: Crop production decisions influenced by climate variability and extremities on vegetable farmers .74 Table 36: Extreme weather events experienced by the rice farmers 76 Table 37: Extreme weather events experienced by the vegetable farmers 77 Table 38: Risk rate of rice farmers on drought .78 Table 39: Risk rate of rice farmers on typhoon 79 Table 40: Risk rate of rice farmers on excessive rains 79 Table 41: Risk rate of rice farmers on flood 80 Table 42: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on drought 81 Table 43: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on typhoon 82 Table 44: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on excessive rains 82 Table 45: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on flood .83 Table 46: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on drought .85 Table 47: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on typhoon 85 Table 48: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on excessive rains 86 Table 49: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on flood 86 Table 50: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on drought 88 Table 51: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on typhoon 88 Table 52: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on excessive rains 89 Table 53: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on flood 89 Table 54: Risk perception of rice farmers on drought 92 vii Table 55: Risk perception of rice farmers on typhoon 92 Table 56: Risk perception of rice farmers on excessive rains 93 Table 57: Risk perception of rice farmers on flood 93 Table 58: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on drought .95 Table 59: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on typhoon 95 Table 60: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on excessive rains .96 Table 61: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on flood 96 Table 62: Summary table of significant correlation analyses on rice farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude on selected variables 104 Table 63: Summary table of significant correlation analyses on vegetable farmers' risk perception and risk attitude on selected variables 106 Table 64: Summary table of significant correlation analyses on farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude on selected variables 107 Table 65: Overall correlation analysis on the relationship between farmers' agricultural practices and risk perception towards extreme weather events 112 Table 66: Overall simple linear regression analysis on the relationship between farmers' agricultural practices and risk perception towards extreme weather events 114 Table 67: Overall correlation analysis on the relationship between farmers’ agricultural practices and risk attitude towards extreme weather events .115 Table 68: Overall ordered probit regression analysis on the relationship between farmers’ agricultural practices and risk attitude towards extreme weather events .116 viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS % Percent ADB Asian Development Bank CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan Brgy Barangay DILG Department of the Interior and Local Government EWE Extreme Weather Events FAO Food and Agriculture of the United Nations FGD Focus Group Discussion Grad Graduate IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KII Key Informant Interview NEDA The National Economic and Development Authority n Number of Observations OMA Office of the Municipal Agriculturist ix Table E3: Typhoon Maring damage report (OMA, 2017) DAMAGE ASSESSMENT REPORT FOR (Specify Commodity: Rice / Corn) Cause of Damage: Tropical Storm Salome Date of Occurrence: November 8, 2017 Report as of November 13, 2017 Period Covered (Specify) November - 13, 2017 A Geographic Information: B Type and Level of Report: (Pls Check) Region IV-A Type Initial Province Laguna Municipality: SINILOAN Level Municipal Progress Provincial Final `` NUNMBER AREA OF STAGE OF ECOSYS VARIETY / OF STANDING CROP TEM TYPE FARMERS CROPS DEVELOPM AFFECTED (ha) ENT (D) (E) (F) AREA AFFECTED YIELD PER HECTARE (HA) (MT) Totally Partially Damaged Damaged (G) (H) TOTAL Regional TOTAL LOSSES YIELD Before After Calamity Calamity (J) (K) Based on Cost of Prod'n Based on Farmgate Price Total LOSS Cost of (%) Prod'n/ Value Volume Price/kg Value Ha (P) (mt) (P) (P) (P) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) REMARKS Value (P) (A) (B) (C) (I) (L) (M) (S) Province Municipality Irrigated Hybrid 16 16.2 Ripening 16.20 16.20 6.50 - 100% 40,000.00 648,000.00 105.30 12.00 1,263,600.00 Rice Submerged under Laguna Siniloan Brgy Halayhayin water Certified Seeds 70 63.9 Ripening 63.90 63.90 4.00 - 100% 25,000.00 1,597,500.00 255.60 12.00 3,067,200.00 Brgy Pandeno & Acevida -Submerged unedr water Hybrid 17 13.7 Ripening 13.70 13.70 6.50 3.25 50% 40,000.00 274,000.00 44.53 12.00 534,300.00 Brgy Halayhayin Lodge due to flashfloods Certified Seeds Ripening 5.00 5.00 5.00 2.50 50% 25,000.00 62,500.00 12.50 12.00 150,000.00 Brgy Macatad Lodge due to flashfloods TOTAL 105 Prepared by: FLOREAN A VISITACION 98.8 80.10 18.7 98.8 2,582,000.00 Reviewed and Approved by: CARLO L REALEZA Figure 21: Flood hazard map of Siniloan, Laguna (CLUP, 2013) 148 Appendix F Questionnaires used for the study: Focus Group Discussion 1: 2: 3: 4: How many cropping seasons in a year you have? Which months is your 1st /2nd cropping season? What crops you plant during the first/second cropping season? How you water your crops? Does your farm have irrigation or you rely on rainfall? If irrigated, what is your source of water (river, reservoirs and lakes, groundwater)? 5: What are the steps involved in rice production? 6: Are there climate-related hazards that usually come along during that step in production? What are they? 7: What is the probability of that hazard destroying your farm? (%) 8: What are the potential impacts of that hazard on the production? 9: How much you think you lost with the impacts of the hazard? (PHP) 10: What is the definition of risk for you? 11: What are the characteristics of a hazard for it to be considered a risk? 12: Do you then consider the combination of the involved hazards and its impacts as a risk? Why or why not? 13: How would you rate the hazards’ incidence and severity from to 5, with being very low? 14: Do you something to avoid this risk and secure your income/livelihood? 15: What are the practices that you to adapt to the hazards mentioned? 16: Are these practices effective? 17: To what extent can these practices reduce risks of the hazard? Key Informant Interviews What are the most common crops planted in the upland, lowland and waterside? What are the hazards in farming and their impacts? What are the adaptation strategies to avoid the effects of extreme weather events (Drought, typhoon, excessive rains, flood, etc.)? What are the adaptation strategies after the impact of the extreme weather events? a Are these effective? If not, why not? How can you improve the farmers’ capacity to cope/adjust with extreme weather events? Which area/s is/are most vulnerable to climate extremes? (Upland, lowland, waterside) What you think makes that area vulnerable to climate extremes? (Geographic location, lack of knowledge, lack of funds, etc.) 149 FARM SURVEY Risk Attitudes and Perceptions on Extreme Weather Events of Small-Scale Farmers in Siniloan, Laguna, Philippines FARM SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE Good morning/afternoon/evening! I am Nicole Alexia V de Castro and I am taking my bachelor's degree in Environmental Science and Management at Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry, Vietnam I am conducting a research on “Risk Attitudes and Perceptions on Extreme Weather Events of Small-Scale Rice Farmers in Siniloan, Laguna” for my final thesis and the main objective of the research is to understand the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to an identified stressor Date of interview I RESPONDENT’S PROFILE Name: Age: Civil Status:  Single  Married  Separated Widow Religion:  Roman Catholic  _ Main occupation: 10 Household size: Crop within past year RICE Cropping season Barangay: Gender:  Male Female Educational Attainment:  Elementary Level: _ High School  College  Postgraduate  Vocational Other occupation: 11 No of children: Which months? Production (per cropping season) Quantity (sack per ha.) How much of it you sell? How much of it did you consume? Total Income Material Input PhP Estimated Expenses (PhP) □1 □2 II FARMING SYSTEM AND EXPERIENCE 12 How long have you been farming? _ years 13 What is total size of the land that you farm? 14 Farming System 14.1 Would you consider the above harvest as good or bad compared to the last years? Why or why not? YES (Better now) NO (Better then) III OTHER SOURCES OF INCOME 15 Other sources of income of the household aside from the farm activities above Household member Type of work Duration Income IV PERCEIVED FARM RISKS 16 What you consider a risk to your production? [tick all that apply]  Flood  Field rats  Drought  Birds Pest Climate  Typhoon  Pests/Insects/diseases  Excessive Rains  Others (specify) _  Price variation TOP RISKS: 150 V RISK PERCEPTION & ATTITUDE 17 Have you experienced Drought/El Niño?  Yes  No 18 If yes, what are the effects of Drought to your production?  Destruction of crops  Loss/Low of production  Low pricing/ Price Variation  Others: 19 What is the probability of Drought/El Niño destroying your farm? (rate (very low) to (very high) Potential Loss Potential Loss RATE (%) (PhP) /5 20 Do you something to avoid the risk of Drought to secure your income/livelihood? Yes , I [ ] Proper timing No, because [ ] There is nothing to [ ] Harvest Early [ ] No knowledge _ [ ] others _ 21 Are these effective in general? Yes (rank the effectiveness from (not very effective)-5 (very effective) _ No 22 Rank from which is the most effective to the least 23 If you experience the impacts of drought, how you cope up?     24 What are the factors you consider when choosing an adaptation strategy?  Easy to  Low cost  materials available Others, 25 Have you experienced Typhoon?  Yes  No 26 If yes, what are the effects of Typhoon to your production?  Destruction of crops  Loss/Low of production  Low pricing/ Price Variation  Others: 27 What is the probability of Typhoon destroying your farm? (rate (very low) to (very high) Potential loss Potential Loss RATE (%) (PhP) /5 28 Do you something to avoid the risk of Typhoon to secure your income/livelihood? Yes , I [ ] Proper timing No, because [ ] There is nothing to [ ] Harvest Early [ ] No knowledge _ [ ] others _ 29 Are these effective in general? Yes (rank the effectiveness from (not very effective)-5 (very effective) _ No 30 Rank from which is the most effective to the least 31 If you experience the impacts of Typhoon, how you cope up?     32 What are the factors you consider when choosing an adaptation strategy?  Easy to  Low cost  materials available Others, 151 33 Have you experienced Excessive Rains/ La Niña?  Yes  No 34 If yes, what are the impacts of Excessive Rains/ La Niña to your production?  Destruction of crops  Loss/Low of production  Low pricing/ Price Variation  Others: 35 What is the probability of Excessive Rains/La Niña destroying your farm? (rate (very low) to (very high) Potential Loss Potential Loss RATE (%) (PhP) /5 36 Do you something to avoid the risk of Excessive Rains to secure your income/livelihood? Yes , I [ ] Proper timing No, because [ ] There is nothing to [ ] Harvest Early [ ] No knowledge _ [ ] others _ 37 Are these effective in general? Yes (rank the effectiveness from (not very effective)-5 (very effective) _ No 38 Rank from which is the most effective to the least 39 If you experience the impacts of Excessive Rains, how you cope up?     40 What are the factors you consider when choosing an adaptation strategy?  Easy to  Low cost  materials available Others, 41 Have you experienced Flood?  Yes  No 42 If yes, what are the impacts of Flood to your production?  Destruction of crops  Loss/Low of production  Low pricing/ Price Variation  Others: 43 What is the probability of Flood destroying your farm? (rate (very low) to (very high) Potential Loss Potential Loss RATE (%) (PhP) /5 44 Do you something to avoid the risk of Flood to secure your income/livelihood? Yes , I [ ] Proper timing No, because [ ] There is nothing to [ ] Harvest Early [ ] No knowledge _ [ ] others _ 45 Are these effective in general? Yes (rank the effectiveness from (not very effective)-5 (very effective) _ No 46 Rank from which is the most effective to the least 47 If you experience the impacts of Flood, how you cope up?     48 What are the factors you consider when choosing an adaptation strategy?  Easy to  Low cost  materials available Others, 152 OTHER RISKS: RISK ADAPTATION STRATEGY IS IT EFFECTIVE?  None  Yes  No  None  Yes  No  None  Yes  No  None  Yes  No  None  Yes  No VI KEY PRODUCTION DECISIONS INFLUENCED BY CLIMATE EXTREMES 49 What influences your crop production decisions? [ ] capital [ ] cost of inputs (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, etc.) [ ] selling price of produce [ ] climate information [ [ ] Food security/supply [ ] others (specify) 50 What kind of key decisions in your farm production activities are usually affected by climate variability and disturbances? [ ] crop to plant [ ] timing of planting [ ] amount of money used for acquisition of certain inputs, etc [ ] others (specify) 153 Appendix G Letters that were used in the study 154 155 156 157 Appendix H Photos of the Focus Group Discussions on the selected barangays in Siniloan, Laguna Brgy Magsaysay (Vegetables) Brgy Magsaysay (Rice) Brgy Halayhayin (Rice) 158 Brgy Wawa (Rice) 159 Appendix I Photos of the small-scale rice and vegetable farmer-respondents on the selected barangays Brgy Magsaysay (Vegetables) 160 Brgy Magsaysay & Kapatalan (Rice) 161 Brgy Halayhayin (Rice) Brgy Wawa (Rice) 162 ... through understanding a farmers? ?? risk perception and risk attitude The risk perception and risk attitude of small- scale farmers towards extreme weather events are very important since these influences... understand the risk attitudes and perceptions of small- scale farmers on extreme weather events, as well as how they influence adaptation strategies and agricultural production The main goals of the... Significance of the Study This study provided baseline information about risk attitude and perceptions of small- scale farmers of Siniloan, Laguna This information would help in capacity building efforts