Dp day ciia ljch sif, ldn ve dan so', da dang ve tpc ngudi va tdn giao, trong dd cd nhieu dan tdc thieu sd' sd'ng dpc bien gidi, cd quan he mat thiet ve huyet thd'ng, van boa cflng [r]
(1)TAI DONG A TRONG THAP NIEN DAU THE KY XXI
TRAN KHANH*D
dng A (bao gdm c i Ddng Bac A va Ddng N a m A) la mdt bd p h a n trpng yeu cua k h u vUc c h a u A-Thai Binh DUdng (CA-TBD), ndi ndi t a p t r u n g k h d i n g 65% G D P cua t h e gidi, 55% gia trj thUdng mai tdan c i u , 50% tdng gia tri cac ngudn d i u tU trUc tiep nUdc ngoai, dang dupe m e n h d a n h la "khu vUc ciia t h e ky XXI" Hdn nfla, k h u viic Ddng A la diem giad thda, d a n xen ldi ich chien lupc ciia cac nUdc ldn h a n g d a u t h e gidi nhU My, T r u n g Qud'c, Nga, N h a t B i n va An Dp, ddng thdi cdn la nOi d a n g ndi len xu h u d n g lien ket k h u viic k h a m a n h me (nhu ASEAN, A S E A N + , A S E A N + vv) cflng n h u sii ten tai ciia cd ca'u chien t r a n h lanh, diem ndng chUa dUdc giai the (nhu van de Tieu Tien, ee bien Dai Lean, bien Ddng, da'u t r a n h y thfle he giai cap) T h e m vae dd, sfl trpi day va gia t a n g n h a n h chdng a n h h u d n g ciia T r u n g Qud'c, p h i n nao dd ciia ca An Dp va sU trd lai cua nUdc Nga cflng vdi cac nd life mdi cua My va N h a t B i n t r o n g viec tie'p t u c tri "Trat tfl chau A" tflng dUde thie't lap tfl thdi chien t r a n h l a n h (My la se va N h a t B i n la sd 2) cung lam gia t a n g t i m q u a n trpng cua Deng A t r d n g chien Ifldc k h u vUc va tean c i u cua cac nUdc ldn T r e n g k h u d n khd bai viet nay, chflng tdi chi gidi thieu met each k h a i q u a t ldi ich chien lupc cita My, T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t B i n va Nga taiDdng A hien va t h a p nien tdi 1 Ldi i c h c h i e n lifdc D o n g A ciia M y
Ne'u n h u dudi thdi chien t r a n h lanh, trpng diem ciia chien lUdc cua My la chau Au vdi muc tieu n g a n c h a n b a n h trUdng cua Lien Xe, va s a u dd Lien Xd sup dd, nha't la budc s a n g d i u t h e ky XXI, trpng diem ciia chien lupc dupc chu trpng hPn c i la T r u n g Ddng va c h a u A-Thai Binh DUdng, t r e n g dd Ddng A d a n g ndi len nhU mdt m a t xfch trpng yeu
(2)20 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
thj t r u d n g , t r o n g k h i d u n g l u p n g t h i t r u d n g vd'n da k h d n g id ddng d a n cU Ngoai ra, cd ca'u k i n h te My va h i u b e t cac nUdc Ddng A, dac biet la T r u n g Qudc cd k h i n a n g hd trd, bd s u n g cho n h a u , m a n g lai ldi ich cho ca h a i p h i a Cac nUde cd nen kinh te c h u y e n ddi t r o n g k h u viic se t h a m gia nhieu hdn he thd'ng p h a n cdng lao ddng qudc te theo chieu dpc, t r o n g dd ddng vai trd p h u trp chinh t r o n g "chudi gia t r j " s i n xua't s i n p h a m cd cdng n g h e cae dd phUdng Tay va N h a t B a n chi phdi Dieu se m a n g lai ldi n h u a n cao cho cac n h a dau t u va cd lpi chd ngudi tieu dflng My va phUdng T a y b i n g cha't lUdng s i n p h a m d i m b i d nhUng gia lai re
Vi ldi ich chinh tri, an ninh, thi k h u vUc Ddng A lai c a n g trd nen q u a n t r p n g hdn bao gid b e t d k h u vUc nay, lpi ich che dp va lpi Ich q u y e n l a m chii, kiem sdat dja chinh trj diia t r e n ldi fch qud'c g i a - d a n tpc ludn la v a n de n d n g hdi T u y cd sU t h a n g t r a m , p h a t trien k h a c n h a u , nhUng cUdng qud'c la T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t Ban va Nga tai Ddng A cd k h a va t h a m vpng kiem soat toan bp h a y chi phdi tflng m a t ve kinh te, chinh trj va a n n i n h k h u viic Viec dieu chinh tfl chinh sach ddl ngoai tfl "da'u minh chd thdi" s a n g c h u dpng de l u a t chdi, "vach r a nhflng d u d n g dd" t r o n g q u a n he qud'c te ciia T r u n g Quo'c cflng vdi t a n g n h a n h thfle lflc k i n h te va qud'c phdng cua nUdc n a y lam cho My lo lang Ben c a n h dd, N h a t B a n d a n g t h e o dudi chinh sach "dudi kjp ve c h i n h t r j " n g a n g t a m vdi k i n h te, c a n h t a n q u a n dpi de trd t h a n h "qud'c gia b i n h thfldng" c u n g it nhieu lam My t r a n trd Hdn nfla, viec nflde Nga tflng bflde p h u c hdi t r o n g t h a p nien d i u t h e ky XXI va d a n g dieu c h i n h chfnh sach c a n b a n g D n g - T a y , q u a n t a m n h i e u hdn vdi cac nu'dc c h a u A, t r o n g dd chfl trpng cai t h i e n q u a n h e vdi T r u n g
Qud'c va An Dp, cflng la v a n de khdng b i n g p h i n g ddl vdi d u y tri vj t h e cua My d Ddng A T h e m vao dd, cupc k h i i n g hoang h a t n h a n d B i c T r i e u Tien d a n g bflng p h a t cflng nhfl xu hfldng xich g a n gifla hai bd ed bien D a i L o a n dfldi thdi c i m quyen cua Qud'c D a n D a n g M a A n h cifu lam tdng thd'ng va nhflng t r a n h c h a p chu q u y e n d bien D d n g gifla T r u n g Qud'c va n h i e u nflde Dong N a m A cd chieu hudng trd n e n c a n g t h a n g d a n g t a o r a ca cd hdi l i n t h a c h thfle ddl vdi My Ngoai r a , k h u viic Ddng A, ndi My h i e n dien, cd q u a n he t r u y e n t h d n g va ddng m i n h chien lUdc vdi n h i e u qud'c gia h a y doi tac n h u vdi N h a t B i n , H a n Qud'c, D a i L o a n , Philippin, Thai L a n va O t x t r a y l i a Nhflng q u y e n Ipi cflng n h u r a n g bupc lan n h a u gifla My vdi cac qudc gia va k h u vUc n a y khd cd t h e lam My ldi la Hdn nfla, sfl ndi len n h a n h chdng cUa T r u n g Qudc nhfl mpt h a t n h a n t h u c day tie'n t r i n h lien ke't k h u viic va sfl h i n h t h a n h chii n g h i a k h u vUc Ddng A ( n h u h i n h t h a n h Cpng ddng ASEAN, Cd c h e H p p t a c A S E A N + , A S E A N + , T h u p n g d i n h D d n g A (EAS), Hpp tac nudc Ddng Bac A gdm T r u n g Qud'c - N h a t B a n - H a n Qud'c, t r o n g k h d n g cd My t h a m gia) cd t h e l a m tdn thUdng den quyen lpi va t h a c h thfle vai t r o "ngfldi can b a n g " va "trpng t a i " a n n i n h , nha't la ddl vdi cac qud'c gia v e n bien t h u p c c h a u A-T h a i Binh D u d n g
2 Ldi i c h c h i e n lufdc D o n g A c u a T r u n g Q u o c
(3)cae nudc x u n g q u a n h Su trd lai ciia T r u n g Qudc vdi t u each la cudng qud'c chau A va d a n g hu'dng tdi mpt sieu cudng mdi ciia the gidi v i n tri la mot nUdc chii nghia xa hdi ldn n h a t bien cflng dat nhieu van de ldn, lien q u a n de'n ldi ich cflng n h u i n h hUdng chien lUpc ciia chinh nudc tai Ddng A va t r e n t h e gidi
Trudc b e t ve ldi ich kinh te; Ddng A da va d a n g la k h u vUc p h a t trien kinh te n a n g ddng, ndi trdng nhflng t h a p nien g i n day d i i n r a q u a hpi n h a p k i n h te k h a chat che vdi c i ben t r o n g va ben ngoai Cac nudc Ddng B i c A n h u N h a t Ban, H a n Qud'c la nhflng n e n k i n h te p h a t trien hay nUdc da cdng nghiep hea, cd ngudn vd'n ldn, trinh dp edng n g h e cao d a n g tim kiem cd hdi dau tU d hai ngoai T r u n g Qudc d a n g la thi t r u d n g ha'p dan ddl vdi hp TU 2007, T r u n g Qud'c da vUdt My va trd t h a n h ddl tac thUdng mai h a n g d i u cua N h a t B i n va H a n Qudc vdi kinh ngach xua't n h a p k h a u hai chieu n a m 2008 len tdi g i n 266,8 ty USD (vdi Nhat) va 186,2 ty (vdi H a n Que'c) Cdn nUdc Nga va cac T r u n g A k h a c thudc Lien Xd cfl trUdc day d phUdng Bac va Tay Bac khdng chi la nhflng ddl tac cd k h a n a n g cung cap ngudn nguyen lieu, nha't la d i u va sat thep chd cdng n g h i e p boa ciia T r u n g Qud'c, ma cdn la thj trfldng de t i n h , tieu t h u cac s i n p h a m cua cdng nghiep nhe, nhflng m a t h a n h d a n g cd lpi t h e canh t r a n h thudc ve T r u n g Qudc
O phia Ddng N a m A va N a m A, cac nu'dc ASEAN va An Dp d a n g la nhflng nen kinh te n a n g dpng, ndi m a nhieu m a t h a n g cdng n g h i e p va nong nghiep cua T r u n g Qudc d a n g cd ldi t h e c a n h t r a n h tai cac thj trfldng Ddi vdi Dong N a m A, ndi h a n g xdm l a n g gieng s a t ke cua T r u n g Qud'c k h d n g chi giau c6 ve ngudn tai
nguyen t h i e n n h i e n , t r o n g dd cd d i u khi, bauxite, va n h i e u thfl kim loai mau n h u ddng, thiec vv , ma la k h u viie dja-chien lupc, ndi cd cac t u y e n dudng h a n g hai trpng yeu cua qud'c te di qua Tfl gifla t h a p nien d i u cua t h e ky XXI, T r u n g Que'c da gan s a n h n g a n g My, N h a t Ban va EU trdng budn b a n vdi Ddng N a m A ' " Hdn nfla k h u viic ljch sif la cfla ngo phUdng N a m , t r u y e n thd'ng va q u a n nha't cua T r u n g Qudc ddl vdi ben ngoai, ndi dang hien dien ddng d i o Cdng ddng ngu'di Hoa (khoang 35 trieu ngu'di) dang sinh sd'ng Cdng ddng cd n a n g liic ve tien vd'n va k i n h nghiem k i n h doanh, cd mdi q u a n he c h a t che ve kinh te va van boa vdi T r u n g Qud'c T r e n thu'e te', cdng ddng da va ddng gdp to ldn cho cdng cudc p h a t trien k i n h te nUdc, md rdng q u a n he hdp tac va lien ke't gifla T r u n g Qud'c luc dja vdi Hdng Cdng-Ma Cao, Dai Loan va vdi cac nflde ASEAN'^'
(4)22 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
Ed bien Dai Ldan va khiing hding hat nhan d Bac Trieu Tien c i n dfldc giii quyet bang cen dUdng hda binh NhUng van de la bet sUc nhay cim, khd trung hea ldi fch gifla cac ben Neu nhu khdng kiem seat dupe tinh hinh, xay xung dot thi mdi trudng an ninh Ddng A se xa'u di nhanh chdng, dd Trung Qud'c cd the la nude ehju thiet hai nhieu nhat Dieu Trung Qud'c nhan thUe re hdn het va hp dang ce' gang lai chinh sach ngeai giao cua hp theo hudng gifl nguyen hien trang, hpp tac cflng cd lpi tren phUdng cham "lam ban vdi lang gieng, an ninh vdi lang gieng va lam giau vdi lang gieng" Tuy nhien, nhflng trudng hpp, van de cu the, Trung Qud'c cd each flng xif cfldng, nhu khac nhau, tflng thdi diem, del tac va tUdng quan liic lUdng
Mdi quan he gifla mei trUdng dja chinh tri, kinh te va van hoa xung quanh Trung Qudc vdi tinh hinh ben Trung Qud'c cflng tao ca nhflng cd hpi va thach thfle del vdi lpi chien lUdc ciia nUdc Dp day ciia ljch sif, ldn ve dan so', da dang ve tpc ngudi va tdn giao, dd cd nhieu dan tdc thieu sd' sd'ng dpc bien gidi, cd quan he mat thiet ve huyet thd'ng, van boa cflng nhu ljch sif vdi nhieu tpc ngudi cac nUdc lang gieng, nhat la vdi cac nUdc vflng Trung A, Ddng Nam A cflng gdp phan tad chd Trung Qud'c cd lpi the nha't djnh treng md rdng hdp tac va anh hfldng ciia hp xung quanh Tuy nhien, dieu cflng tae khdng it Ap liic ve mat an ninh dpc bien gidi Cac the liic ly khai ca treng va ngdai nudc cd the ldi dung sii bat cap chfnh sach doan ket dan tpc de pha hoai sii dn djnh va phat trien cua da't nUdc Hdn nfla, sfl trung cua cac dan tdc thieu so', cac khu vUc tU trj ddl vdi qud'c gia Trung Qud'c khong hoan toan nhfl y mud'n cua chinh quyen Trung fldng Sfl de doa ve
an ninh qud'c gia tfl ndi tai, ban than ciia Trung Qud'c cd the cdn ldn hdn nhieu so vdi sfl de doa tfl ben ngoai Chfnh vi vay, xif ly cac van de an ninh va phat trien, nha't la lien quan den van de dan tpc thieu so, Trung Qudc ludn chfl y va c i n h giac ve van de Tuy nhien khdng phai lflc nao chinh phii Trung Udng cung kiem soat dUpc tinh hinh Nhflng bao loan lien quan den sac tpc xay lien tiep tai Tay Tang va Tan Cudng vad mfla he nam 2008 va 2009 vfla qua la mpt vi du dien hinh Day la mdt nhflng van de chfnh trj nhay cam, tac ddng ldn den ldi ich chien Ifldc ciia Trung Qudc
3 Ldi ich c h i e n li:fdc D o n g A cua N h a t B a n
(5)phdng t h u ddng m i n h N h a t - M y cflng tao r a k h d n g it dieu k h d xif t r o n g viec md rpng i n h h u d n g va lpi ieh chien lUdc cua N h a t t r e n the gidi, nha't la d Ddng A
Trudc b e t ve ldi ich kinh te; Su md rdng cac cd hdi thUdng m a i va d a u tU tai cac nude cd n e n k i n h te mdi c h u y e n d Ddng A n h u T r u n g Qud'c va Viet N a m da va d a n g t a e cd hpi k i e m ldi ciia N h a t B i n T r u n g Qud'c da t h a y t h e My trd t h a n h đl tac thUdng m a i Idn n h a t cua N h a t B i n Viet N a m , M d n g Cd va cac nUdc thudc Lien Xd cfl cflng d a n g la thj trUdng h a p dan d i u tU cua N h a t B i n Viec hdp tac vdi Nga xay dUng dUdng dng d a n d i u s a n g vflng bd bien Vien D e n g cflng d a n g la lpi ieh chien lupc ciia N h a t B i n Sii ndi len ciia cac n e n k i n h n a y cd k h i n a n g giflp N h a t B i n mdi cdng nghe va gia t a n g x u a t k h a u s i n p h a m cd h a m Ifldng c h a t xam cad b a n g each c h u y e n m e t bp p h a n cac n h a m a y cd cdng n g h e vfla p h a i r a nudc ngeai va đng vai trd la n h a cung cap cac linh kien, m a y mdc va day chuyen s i n xuát hien dai cho cdng viec l i p r a p , s i n xuát h a n g xuát k h a u tai cac nUde đ Dieu n a y ngudi N h a t da tflng tien h a n h vdi cac nUdc A S E A N tfl nhflng n a m 60-70 Tuy n h i e n , t r o n g bdi c i n h gia t a n g canh t r a n h , nhát la sfl trdi day cua T r u n g Qud'c n h u "mpt cdng x u d n g t h e gidi" va xu the lien k e t k i n h te k h u vUc diia t r e n dac diem, sii g i n gui ve m a t dja Iy thi sii be sung gifla n e n k i n h te N h a t B i n vdi h a u het cac n e n k i n h te cdn lai ciia Ddng A cd y nghia chien Ifldc đl vdi N h a t Ban Hdn nfla, sii k h a n h i e m ve n h i e n l i e u / n a n g Ifldng cflng la bai t d a n khd d a t r a , bupc N h a t B i n p h i i t a n g cfldng hpp tac n a n g lupng vdi cac nUdc t r e n g k h u viic nhát la vdi cac qud'c gia cd t i e m n a n g ve ngudn dfl trfl tai n g u y e n naỵ C h i n h vi vay, chinh Scich "ngoai giao k i n h tế, t r o n g đ cd
"ngoai giao ODA" ket hdp vdi "ngoai giao v a n boa" la nhflng h u d n g d a n g dupe ngudi N h a t chfl trpng, n h i m khdng chi tri ma lam t a n g ldi ich chien lUpc k i n h te, chinh trj ciia hp t r o n g k h u vUe va t r e n t h e gidi
Ve lgi ich chinh tri, an ninh; N h a t Ban la mpt t r o n g nhflng nUdc n a m t r e n v a n h dai dja chinh trj n h a y c i m , thieu dn djnh ve m a t a n ninh Dieu da va d a n g tao r a ca cd hdi va t h a c h thUc ddl vdi ldi ich que'c g i a - d a n tpc cita N h a t Ban ca hien tai cflng n h u lau dai TrUde b e t la lien q u a n den sii trdi day cUa T r u n g Qud'c Ve khach q u a n ma nei, sii p h a t trien n h a n h chdng ciia T r u n g Qud'c cd k h a n a n g thfle day hpp tac k h u viic, lam chd nUdc hdi n h a p n h a n h chdng vad he thd'ng kinh te va chinh trj t h e gidi N h u n g ben canh dd, ve m a t dja chinh trj va quyen ldi qudc gia dan tdc, thi sU p h a t trien dd dfl mud'n, dfl khdng lam suy giam t h j p h a n kinh te, tieng ndi chinh trj cflng n h u vai trd a n n i n h N h a t B a n tai Ddng A va t r e n t h e gidi Hdn nfla, sfl dau tU cang ldn cho viec hien dai hoa q u a n sU, nha't la hai q u a n cflng vdi sU gia t a n g ddi chu quyen cua T r u n g Qud'c t r e n cac vflng bien d i o , keo dai tfl v u n g bien V a n g cho t a n Ddng h i i va N a m h i i (bien Ddng) cflng lam cho nhieu ngfldi N h a t lo lang, bdi k h u vflc t a p t r u n g cac h u y e t mach thUdng mai h a n g h i i eUa N h a t Ban vdi t h e gidi
(6)24 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
trj, an ninh thi h i u nhu dam chan tai chd, ma nhieu ngudi thudng gpi la "lanh" Nhieu ngUdi Nhat chd rang, sU hien dai boa nen kinh te va quan sii cua Trung Qud'c la mdi de doa tiem tang ddl vdi Nhat Ban; Con khdng it ngudi Trung Qudc coi sU tdn tai quan he ddng minh chien lUdc Nhat-My va sU ddi md'i quan dpi cua Nhat de trd "qudc gia binh thudng" dien nhanh chdng nhflng nam gan day dang tao them mdi uy hiep ddl vdi an ninh cua Trung Qudc Cflng vdi nhflng bat ddng, ke ca thfl ban va tranh chap Ijch sif de lai, nhflng gia tang chi phi quan sii va chay dua kinh te gifla hai nUdc dang la mpt nhflng van de ldn ve chinh trj, an ninh va hdi nhap kinh te d Ddng A Vay lam the nao de thay ddi each nghj "mdt nfli khdng the cd hai hd", lam mat dan di sii nghi ky ljch sif de lai va trung boa lpi ich ciia cac ben de cflng tdn tai va phat trien vv la nhflng van de het sflc quan trpng ciia ca Nhat B i n va Trung Qud'c cflng nhu khu vUc phai ddl mat thap nien tdi cua the ky XXI
Ngoai van de mang t i m chien lUdc tren, sil gia tang cang thang tren ban d i e Trieu Tien, sU xfch g i n ve kinh te va cai thien nhanh chdng ve chinh trj gifla dei bd ed bien Dai Lean cflng tad nhieu le ling ddl vdi Nhat Hdn nfla, sfl hinh Khu viic thudng mai tU Trung Qud'c -ASEAN (ACFTA) va sU tang cUdng dau tu va vien trd cUa Trung Qudc cho cac nUdc ASEAN -4 cflng tao sfl canh tranh ldn ddl vdi Nhat Ban, nOi ma ngfldi Nhat dang cd' gang tri va md rpng lpi ich vd'n cd cila ho tai khu vUc nay''^'
4 Ldi ich chien lu'dc Dong A cua Nga
Dac thfl ndi bat cUa Nga la nflde nam tren luc dja A-Au, phan lanh thd
d chau A chie'm tdi khoang 80%, ndi tap trung cac ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien chu chd't ciia Nga Hdn nfla, vung da't chau A ciia Nga lai tiep giap tiep vdi khu viic chau A-Thai Binh DUdng (CA-TBD), ndi cd cac nen kinh te nang dpng, dang la diu tau ciia nen kinh te the gidi va dang dien kha manh me qua trinh lien ket khu viic Day la nhflng cd hpi thuan ldi de Nga tham gia, tang cudng hpp tac, md rdng quan he, trUdc het la kinh te khu viic
Tuy nhien khu viic Ddng A cdn la ndi ehfla dung nhieu nguy cd bflng nd xung dot, cd the gay nguy hai cho an ninh nUdc Nga d khu vUc nay, cd ca'u chien tranh khdng chi cdn tdn tai (nhU van de thd'ng nha't, ddl dau y thfle he gifla hai mien Nam Bac Trieu Tien, ddi bd bien Dai Loan) ma cdn gia tang mau thuan, xung dot ve tranh chap chii quyen, nha't la d bien dao va chay dua vu trang Them vao dd, khu viic Trung A qua bien Caxpi chay dai de'n khu vUc Kavkav, ndi tiep giap vdi Afganistan va nhieu nUdc Trung can Ddng la diem ndng cupc chien chdng khiing bd' toan cau, lai n i m sat sudn phia Nam eda Nga Dieu da va dang tac dpng true tiep de'n an ninh phfa Nam va Ddng Nam ciia nflctc Nga
(7)dja, eai tien cdng n g h e , p h a t t r i e n vflng Vien Ddng n g a n g b i n g vdi p h i n d chau Au, ma q u a n t r p n g k h d n g k e m la tflng budc xac l a p a n h h u d n g tai k h u vUc c h a u A-Thai Binh DUdng cho tUdng xUng vdi tiem n a n g ciia h p ' "
Ngeai ra, sU md rdng eua NATO ve phia Ddng, de'n t a n s a t n g a y bien gidi Nga d phia Tay va N a m cflng n h u can t h i e p sau eua My vae k h u vUe T r u n g A da va dang lam tdn thUdng de'n quyen ldi dia-chinh trj eiia Nga Viec md rdng q u a n he vdi phUdng Ddng, dac biet vdi T r u n g Qud'c, An Dp va cac nUdc Ddng N a m A se p h i n nao g i i m di Ap lUc dja chfnh tri, lam can b a n g hdn t r o n g chinh sach ddl ngoai cua Nga, c i ve k i n h te, chfnh trj, a n ninh TrUdc b e t ve hdp tdc vd cgnh tranh kinh te; Nga cd t h e m a n h la giau tai nguyen thien, dae biet la d i u khf, lai ed the chu ddng ke c i ngudn vdn va cdng nghe k h a i t h a c , v a n ehuyen s i n p h a m nUdc ngoai, t r o n g dd cd Ddng A T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t B a n va nhieu nen kinh te khac d a n g k h a t n a n g lupng, cang p h u thupc vao n g u d n n h a p d a u k h i de p h a t trien T r o n g lflc c h u a tim r a mdt lai n a n g lUdng k h a c t h a y t h e vai trd ciia dau khf, thi "cai gay n a n g lUdng" cua Nga cdn cd hieu q u a ldn t r o n g viec thiet lap vj the cua nga t r e n t h e gidi, cd d k h u viic c h a u A - T h a i Binh DUdng Tie'p den, the m a n h tie'p theo cua Nga ca kinh te va an n i n h la N g a cd cdng nghe cao vao bac nha't t h e gidi t r o n g viec s i n xua't vu hien dai T h e m vao dd, ky t h u a t cdng nghe cao t r o n g cac n h a n h n h u s i n xua't cac thie't bj xay diing cac n h a may t h u y dien, n h i e t dien, n a n g lupng h a t n h a n , h a n g khdng d a n d u n g va vfl t r u , ddng t a u bien, vat lieu xay vv cflng la the m a n h truyen thd'ng cua Nga va cang cd chd
dflng nhieu hdn thj trUdng Ddng A Tuy nhien, d Ddng A tflng thjnh h a n h cac s i n p h a m cd h a m lupng cdng n g h e cad cua My, N h a t Ban va nhieu rdng c h a u A k h a c , ddng thdi sU gia t a n g n h a n h chdng sUc c a n h t r a n h s i n p h a m cdng ngghiep cua T r u n g Qud'c, nen k h i n a n g c a n h t r a n h b a n g hda cua Nga hien tai van cdn k h a k h i e m ton Tuy nhien, theo da ddi mdi cua nude Nga, cae m a t h a n h ed t h e m a n h eua Nga se cd chd dUng vflng d k h u vUc
P h i i cdng n h a n rang, nUde Nga c i truyen thd'ng cflng n h u hien tai ed vai trd quan trpng h a n g d i u giai quye't cac van de chinh tri- an ninh toan c i u va hp cd lpi ich chien lUde to ldn va lau dai d Ddng A Tuy chi phf qud'c phdng hien chi b a n g khoang 1/10 so vdi My, nhUng nUdc Nga van cdn la mdt sieu cudng ve q u a n sU, dUng thfl hai the gidi Mdt se'linh viic q u a n sU n h u ten lifa dan dao, chinh phuc vfl t r u va vfl h a t n h a n g i n ngang ngifa vdi My Hdn nfla, Nga la cudng qud'c ve chfnb trj, khdng ehi la mpt n a m t h a n h vien ciia Hpi ddng bao a n Lien hop qud'c cd quyen phii quye't, ma cdn la nUde ed kha n a n g dUa cac hpc thuyet, sang kien va hien thUc hea chflng trdng viec lien minh, lien ket, t a p hpp liic lUdng lam t h a y ddi t r a t t u the gidi Dieu da dupe chUng minh ljch sif va van cdn cd k h a n a n g tai hien tUdng lai, d a t nUdc thie't lap lai dupe sii dn djnh va ddng t h u a n xa hpi Nga Nhflng bieu hien mdi ve phuc hdi va bao ve ldi fch chien lUdc Nga la viec nUde gia t a n g sU hien d chau A, treng dd thiet lap q u a n he ddl tac chien lupc vdi T r u n g Qud'c, An Dp va ASEAN
(8)26 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
khdng chi ciia cac nUdc khu vUc, ma ca cac nUdc ngoai khu vUc, trUde het la cua cac nude ldn Trpng diem chien lUdc cua My d Ddng A hien la ce ging tri "Trdt tii Chdu A" dUdc thie't lap tfl hdi chien tranh lanh, dd budc Nhat Ban phai ludn di vdi minh va thiic hien chinh sach can du, vfla hdp tac, vfla canh tranh vdi Trung Qud'c, va ca Nga va An Dp, nham dfla cac nUde trd nhflng "cd ddng cd trach nhiem" he thd'ng qud'c te Tuy nhien da cd sfl co gian ldn hdn quan he ciia My ddl vdi cac nUdc Idn d chau A, trdng dd Trung Qud'c dang trd nen quan trpng hdn, dUde danh gia cao bdn trdng chinh sach tdan cau cung nhU khu viic cua My
Cdn ddl vdi Trung Qud'c, khu viic Ddng A khdng chi la khu vUc i n h hfldng truyen thd'ng ciia Trung Qud'c, ndi ludn dien tranh chap quyen lpi gifla Trung Qud'c vdi cac nflde ldn ca va ngoai khu vflc, ma cdn la ndi the nghiem chien Ifldc cflng chung sdng hoa binh va lam giau vdi lang gieng cua Trung Qud'c Tuy nhien nhu cau md rdng "khdng gian sinh tdn" va quang ba "md hinh xa hdi chu nghia" cUa nUdc dang gap nhieu thach thfle bdi chinh sach can dfl va canh tranh cUa nhieu nUdc Idn khac, trUdc het la My Day la diem mau chdt chi phdi mdi trUdng dja chinh trj va an ninh ciia Ddng A hien nay, nha't la tUdng lai gin
Ddl vdi Nhat Ban, n i m tren vanh dai dja chinh tri nhay cam, nhUng lai sdi dpng hpp tac va phat trien kinh te, nen mdi quan tam hang d i u eda nUdc hien la lam the nao lam tang sflc manh tdng the qud'c gia, chfl khong rieng ve kinh te, loai bd dan nhflng nghi ky ljch sif de lai, trung hoa lpi fch cua cac ben d Ddng A, dac biet la vdi Trung Qud'c de
cflng ten tai va phat trien Day la nhflng thach thfle kheng chi vdi Nhat Ban, ma ca Trung Qud'c, My va nhieu nflde khac treng khu vUc va tren the gidi
Cdn ddl vdi Nga, lpi ich chien ludc Ddng A cUa hp trudc mat va tUOng lai gin la tri va phat trien cac mdi quan he hda binh va hdp tac vdi Trung Qud'c, Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c va cac nUdc ASEAN, de tfl can b i n g hdn quan he vdi EU va My Tuy nhien, nhflng khd khan, han che npi tai hien cila Nga cung vdi sfl gia tang canh tranh chien Ifldc gifla cac nUdc ldn nham kiem soat hay chiem Uu the ve dja chinh trj khu vUc va the gidi dang la nhflng thach thfle cua nUdc tren dfldng lap lai vi the sieu cudng cua hp./
CHU THICH
1 Kim ngach xua't nhap khau Trung Quoc -ASEyy^ nam 2008 da len tdi 231,1 ty USD, dd xua't khiu tfl Trung Quoc tang len gin 21% so vdi nam 2007 (Xem them: So' lieu Thd'ng ke ve tinh hinh phat trien kinh te - xa hpi Trung Quo'c nam 2008 Cue Thong ke Nha nifdc Cpng hoa Nhan dan Trung Hoa cdng bd 26/2/2009) Xem them: Tran Khanh Su tie'n trien
quan he ASEAN-Trung QudcZ/Nghien cflu Dong Nam A, sd 2, 2004; Ngifdi Hoa quan he Trung Qudc-ASEAN/ZNghien cflu Trung Qud'c, sd 4, 2004
3 Xem them: Hoai Nam Trung Qudc vdi Hanh lang Kinh te D6ng-Tay//Nghien cflu Ddng Nam A, 11/2008, tr 47-53; Tran Khanh Dong Nam A canh tranh chien lifdc Trung-Nhat//Nghien cflu Dong Nam A, sd 1/2009, tr 13-21