Kha nang canh t r a n h gia tang eua cae nen kinh te MLT gdp phan lam tang vai trd cua khu vUc nay trong viec cung ca'p FDI cho thi trUdng vd'n the gidi, vi r i n g neu trUde day k[r]
(1)MY LATINH TRONG HOI NHAP KINH TE
TOAN CAU
1 My Latinh t r o n g qua trinh hoi nhap
Theo Uy ban Kinh te My Latinh (CEPAL), dac diem ndi trdi cua khu vUc My Latinh (MLT) d nhflng nam cudi the ky XX dau the ky XXI la: cac nen kinh te khu vUe eang hdi nhap sau vao cae nen kinh te the gidi, the hien d cho cac nUdc khu viic MLT c h i n g nhflng eang tiep nhan nhieu vd'n d i u tU triic tiep nUde ngoai (FDI), ma cung xua't khau cang nhieu vd'n dau tU nUde ngoai Tieu bieu cho cac nUdc la Brazil, Mexico va Chile
Do vay, cac chuyen gia kinh te cho ring, ban cha't cua toan c i u hoa gid day da cd nhieu ddi mdi ve cha't, dd la dieu kien thuan ldi de cac nUdc MLT nang dUdc vi the cua minh hdi nhap kinh te toan eau Mdi ve cha't dUdc the hien d chd:
- Neu trUdc day khu vfle MLT chi quen tiep nhan FDI qua trinh hdi nhap kinh te toan cau, thi gid day khu viic da xua't khau vd'n dau tU triic tiep nUdc ngoai;
- Neu trUdc 1995 eac nUdc MLT bi coi la san sau cua My, xa la vdi nen kinh te the gidi, thi gid day, theo da hoi nhap kinh te toan cau thong qua cac cdng ty xuyen qud'e gia ciia minh, khu vfle MLT cang tham gia tich ciic vao qua trinh phan cdng lai lao dong xa hoi tren quy md toan the gidi, khdng hi coi
Nguyen Tuan Minh Vien Nghien ciiu Chau My la khu viic ngoai vi, xa la vdi cac nen kinh te chau Au va chau A
Gid day, khdng chi nhflng cdng ty Idn, ma ca cac doanh nghiep nhd va vfla cua MLT cflng cang tham gia tich ciic vao thi trfldng hang tieu dflng, hang cdng nghe ky thuat cae va thi trUdng vd'n tren quy md toan eau Dat dUde nhU vay chu yeu la cac cdng ty, doanh nghiep gid day da tich luy dUde nhieu kinh nghiem td chflc, quan ly boat ddng san xua't kinh doanh eua eac nen kinh te phat trien va dang phat trien ciia the gidi, da gom gdp dUde sd' vd'n Idn, du manh de phat trien, md rdng hdat ddng san xua't kinh doanh d nUde va d nUdc ngoai Do dd, da sd eac nUde khu vUc lam cae mat hang kieu dang, m i u ma dep, gia ca re hdn cac mat hang cung loai eua cac nUde khac tren thi trUdng qud'e te, bdi canh mdi trUdng canh tranh gifla eac nen kinh te c^ng gay gat de cung tdn tai va phat trien
(2)s o 02-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
gidi Theo da md cifa cho canh tranh qud'e te, cac cdng ty khu viic MLT cflng phai canh t r a n h vdi cae cdng ty xuyen qudc gia cua cae nUdc khac chang nhUng d thi trUdng nUdc minh, ma edn tren cac thi trUdng nUde ngoai Ve phan minh, cude canh tranh budc cac cdng ty khu viic MLT phai nang cao cha't lUdng san pham de gianh lay cac Uu the canh tranh so vdi eac san pham cung loai cua cae nUde khac tren thi trUdng the gidi
Kha nang canh t r a n h gia tang eua cae nen kinh te MLT gdp phan lam tang vai trd cua khu vUc viec cung ca'p FDI cho thi trUdng vd'n the gidi, vi r i n g neu trUde day khu viic MLT bi coi la hau phUdng, la san sau cat gifl, tieu dung hang hoa thfla e va tiep nhan vd'n dau tU ciia My, thi gid day trd ngUdi tham gia tich cUc vao qua trinh khu vUe boa, toan cau hoa cae nen kinh te thdng qua boat ddng dau tU triic tiep vd'n nUde ngoai eua cac tap doan xuyen qud'e gia d khu viic, nhU tap doan Goldman Sachs, ICA, Cemex eua Mexico va Petrobras, Vale Rio Doce, Embraer eiia Brazil
O hai nUde hien cd hai tap
doan kinh te Idn hang thfl ba the gidi Dd la tap doan che tao may bay phan lUc dan dung Embraer eiia Brazil - Idn thfl ba the gidi, sau tap doan "Airbus" cua EU va tap doan "Boeing" eua My, va tap doan san xua't xi mang Cemex eua Mexico, cung Idn thfl ba the gidi vdi san lUdng xi mang cho Id hang nam la tren 73 trieu ta'n/nam (so vdi dudi 60 trieu tan/nam cua Nga) Doanh thu nam 2006 cua tap doan la tren 20 ty USD, hien cd cae Id san xuat xi mang d nhieu nUde tren the gidi tao cdng an viec lam cho tren 50 ngan ngUdi Trong so' 50- cdng ty
xuyen qudc gia hang dau the gidi ve tich san d nUdc ngoai nam 1999, thi khu viic MLT chiem 11 cdng ty (trong dd, Venezuela va Argentina - mdi nUde ed 1; Chile - 2; Mexico - 3; Brazil - 4), chiem khoang 30% tdng tich san eua cac cdng ty xuyen qudc gia d nUde ngoai, gdp phan mang cang nhieu ngoai te ve cho da't nUdc, de phat trien kinh te, xoa ddi giam ngheo eua khu viie MLT
2 Kinh te My Latinh n e n kinh te the gidi
cac nha quan sat va binh luan kinh te the gidi cho r i n g , nhflng cuoc cai each kinh te mang mau sac tfl mdi eiia khu viic MLT d cudi the ky XX dau the ky XXI da dem lai cho khu vUe ea cac mat tieu ciic, lan tich eiic
Tieu ciic d chd nhflng cude cai each lam cho chenh lech thu nhap giau ngheo eang rdng ra, 24 nam qua (1980-2004), so' ngUdi ngheo eua MLT tfl 197,2 trieu tang len 224 trieu ngUdi Trong 35 nam qua - tang them 100 trieu ngUdi ngheo va them 20 trieu ngUdi sd'ng dudi mflc ngheo ddi Trong tdng so' dan My Latinh va vung Caribbean nam 2006 la 551 trieu ngUdi, thi so' ngUdi ngheo chiem 38,5%; dudi mflc ddi ngheo chiem 147% (Xem thd'ng ke hang nam ciia MLT Caribbean Santiago de Chile -2004, trang 8)
Mat tich cue the hien d chd tfl gifla thap nien 90 tdi nam 2006 GDP va GDP/ngUdi binh quan eua khu vUc MLT deu tang, nam sau cao hdn nam trUdc Con lam phat, tha't nghiep va nd nUdc ngoai ciia khu viic MLT deu giam Sau day la nhflng chi tieu ndi tren cua khu vUc thdi gian
(3)N a m Chi tieu ' ~——-
Miic tang GDP binh quan nam Miic tang GDP/ngiidi
Lam phat binh quan nam
That nghiep binh quan nam ci cac 16n
Thap nien 80
1,0 -0,8 274,1 (1985) 5,8 Thap nien 90 3,0 1,5 1.186,3 (1990) 7,5 2000 3,9 2,3 9,0 10,0 2005 4,3 2,8 6,1 9,1 2006 5,3 3,8 4,8 8,7
Con sau day la nd nUdc ngoai cua
~~———- ^^ N a m Chi t i e u —— _
No/GDP (%) Nd/xuat khau (%) Lai/xuat kh^u (%)
1970 17,2 120,7 4,1 1980 34,1 202,3 19,9 MLT^ 1985 58,8 365 18,4
va Caribbean tfl nam 1970-2006:
1990 34,6 292 9,4 1995 36,8 225 17,5 1999 42,2 211 16,4 2000 38,9 172 14,2 2005 27,1 101 9,8 2006 24,0 83 •
Nguon: CEPAL, "Bao cao sd bo ve tinh hinh kinh te MLT va Caribbean" - Santiago de Chile, 2006
Cae sd'lieu ndi tren cho tha'y r i n g , Sau day la p h i n GDP tang binh bflde vao thap nien 90 kinh te khu vUc quan nam 1995 va 2005 cua khu viic MLT da thoat khdi tri tre, b i t dau MLT cua cac nhdm nUdc MLT phuc dan dan, gdp p h i n dn dinh GDP eua the gidi va eua cae nUde tinh hinh tai chinh, lanh manh boa
ngan sach, giam lam phat, tang thu ngoai thUdng d nhflng nam sau
dang phat trien (ke ea MLT)
Cac k h u v\ic
The gi6i
Cac nU6c dang phat trien
G D P n a m 1995 ( t r i e u
(USD)
29.556.582 5.653.973 My L a t i n h
Trung My Nam My
^ >
cs u Q ^
or
fi 'bfi o X PM 100 19,1 o ^ « 'uCM -^
a w S " 100,0 1.720.950 338.845 1.310.943 5,8 1,1 4,4 Q O S X c H 2,9 4,5
G D P 2005 (trieu USD) 44.475.204 9.962.981 U Q #
o r
fl be o u + j C '<« JS P H 100 30,5 6,0 23,2Nguon - UNCTAD - Hand book of statistics • Cac so heu bang tren cho tha'y
ring, vdng 10 nam (1995-2005) GDP eua the gidi tang 2,8%, cua cae nUdc dang phat trien (gdm ea MLT) tang 4,5%; cua khu vfle MLT - tang 3% Neu nam 1995 phan GDP MLT chiem GDP cua the gidi la 5,8%;
2.3 3,4 1,8 2.486.992 866.788 1.949.475 22,4 5,6 1.9 3,4 o —-« -u CU -^ Q >ts
°
s
S "
'<03 '0
Xi -s
100,0 Cu Q O fi <«« 3 X c X W) a 50,5 25,0 8,7 15,0 76,2 44,5 155,8 14,0 2006, P 128
(4)10 s o 02-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
phat trien tang 73,2%, thi eua khu vUc MLT tang 44,5%, tha'p hdn gan 1,5 lan so vdi GDP eua cae nUde dang phat trien, dd, GDP tang cao nha't cua khu viie (MLT) la d vimg Trung My - tang 155,8%), rdi den vung Caribbean - tang 76,7%, tha'p nha't la d vung Nam My - tang 14% Nam My lai la vung tap trung eac nen kinh te Idn eua MLT - nhU Argentina, Brazil, Chile va Venezuela De dudi vUdt cac nUdc dang phat trien khac cua the gidi, khu viic MLT c i n ap dung eac hien phap khan ca'p, thu hut vd'n FDI eua nude ngoai nham gdp p h i n khac phue tinh trang lac hau
3 My Latinh t r e n thi trifdfng FDI cua the gidi
"World Investment Report 2006" cho biet, tdng FDI cua the gidi nam 2006 la tren 1,2 ngan ty USD so vdi gin 400 ty USD nam 1996, nghia la sau 10 nam FDI eiia the gidi tang len lin Tang dUde nhU vay trUde he't la kinh te toan c i u phat trien, sau nfla la cac dieu kien d i u tfl nUde ngoai va thu hut vd'n FDI eua nUde ngoai da ed nhieu thay ddi cd ldi cho boat dong dau tU eua nen kinh te
Theo "World Investment Report 1999" va "Foreign Direct Investment and the Challenge of Development -New York 2000", so' 145 lan dieu chinh luat dau tU triic tiep nUde ngoai cua 60 qud'e gia (gdm ea phat trien va dang phat trien) nam 1998, thi 94%) lan dieu chinh la n h i m tao cac dieu kien thuan ldi cho boat ddng cua eac cdng ty xuyen qud'e gia; ehi 6% la ap dung eac bien phap bd sung de giam sat hoat dong d i u tu cua cac cdng ty Qua eac lan dieu chinh nay, bien gidi cac nUdc cang thdng thoang hdn; vd'n FDI xam nhap vao cac thi trUdng
mdt tu do, de dang hdn, lam cho thi trUdng tai chinh khu viic MLT va the gidi cang sdi dong hdn
Trong thdi gian 1996-2006, tdng FDI cua the gidi tang 210%, dd, p h i n FDI cua cac nUdc dang phat trien tang g i n b i n g chi tieu (210%); phan FDI cua eac nUde phat trien tang 180%, nghia la tdng FDI cua the gidi 10 nam qua, p h i n FDI cua cae nUde phat trien bi giam - tfl 15,6% xud'ng edn 14,3%
Nam 2006 tdng FDI cua MLT dat 50 ty USD so vdi ty USD nam 1996, cho phep phan FDI cua MLT FDI cua the gidi tfl 1,8% tang len 4,0%, va FDI eua eac nUdc dang phat trien (ke ca MLT) tfl 11,5% tang len 28% thdi gian 1996-2006 (xem bang sau)
(5)Nam 1996 tdng vd'n dau tU triic tiep nUdc ngoai eua ba nUde Chile, Argentina va qud'e dao Virgin (thuoc Anh) la tren ty USD, chiem khoang 0,3-0,4% tdng FDI cua the gidi va khoang 2% FDI cua cae nUde dang phat trien, tdi nam 2006 tinh hinh da thay ddi ve nguyen t i c Vd'n dau tu triie tiep nUde ngoai eua Brazil la cao nha't - dat tren 28 ty USD, chiem khoang 60% vd'n dau tU triic tiep nflde ngoai eua khu vfle MLT, dflng thfl 12 the gidi ve chi tieu nay, vfldt Trung Qud'e, Nga va Ha Lan, khie'n Brazil trd t h a n h la cd d i u ve vd'n d i u tU tiic tiep nUdc ngoai eua khu viic MLT
6 khu vUe nay, ben canh Brazil edn ed Mexico va Chile cung d i u tU nhieu nUde ngoai, nhUng vd'n' cua Mexico dau tu chu yeu vao cac nganh mang lai ldi nhuan cao nhU linh vfle viln thdng, cdng nghiep thiic p h i m va san xua't xi mang, edn vd'n eua Chile - d i u tfl manh vao cdng nghiep khai md va mang lUdi thUdng nghiep
Ndi chung, 10 nam qua vd'n FDI cua khu viic MLT nUde ngoai, nhieu hdn FDI eua nUde ngoai vao MLT Trong nam cudi cua thdi ky nay, chenh lech gifla FDI va FDI vao MLT giani dan Vi du, neu nam 2004 vd'n khu viic MLT d i u tU nude ngoai nhieu hdn vd'n FDI nUdc ngoai vao MLT la 66 ty USD, thi nam 2006, chenh lech la 34 ty USD Giam manh chenh lech la d cac nude Nam My Tuy nhien, nam 20()6 ba nude dau tU nUde ngoai nhieu hdn nude ngoai d i u tU vao nUde minh la Peru, Brazil va Venezuela Trong
thdi gian hai nUdc cd ket qua d i u tu vao tUdng tii la Panama (2004-2005) va Bolivia ((2004-2005) Vd'n xuat khau nhieu hdn vd'n nhap khau d day edn phai ndi den Barbados va qud'e dao Virgin NhUng, bien ddng d i u tu nude ngoai d cae trung tam tai chinb ngoai bien it lien quan den nhflng thay ddi nen kinh te eiia cac nflde d day
Neu vd'n d i u tU nUde ngoai nhieu hdn vd'n dau tU nUde ngoai vao Brazil la vd'n dau tU nUde ngoai ciia Brazil tang dot xua't, thi sii chenh lech didn d Venezuela lai khac ve nguyen t i c Sd di nhu vay la sau len n i m chinh quyen, cimg ed' dUde vi the cua minh, Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez da qud'e hUu boa mdt so doanh nghiep then chd't eua nen kinh te, dd cd doanh nghiep md, lam cho vd'n d i u tu triic tiep ciia nUde ngoai rut khdi Venezuela mdt nhieu, nhUng tap doan d i u md qud'e gia Venezuela (PDUSA) v i n boat ddng manh d nUde ngoai, vay vd'n d i u tU nUde ngoai v i n nhieu hdn vd'n nUde ngoai d i u tU vao Venezuela
(6)12 SO 02-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Cac k h u vvfc va t h e gidi
The gi6i
Cac niicic phat trien Cac nu6c dang phat trien My Latinh Nam My Argentina Bohvia Brazil Chile Columbia Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela Trung My Belize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Panama Vung Caribbean Antigua & Barbuda Barbados
Virgin Islands Cayman Islands CH Dominica Trinidad & Tobago
Von FDI niidc ngoai cua the gidi v a
cac k h u vvfc (Trieu USD)
N a m 1996 391.554 331.037 61.235 7.038 3.986 1.600 520 1.188 68 85 11 507 903 6 2 -2 38 860 2.149 -1 1.639 400 14 2006 1.215.789 1.022.711 174.389 49.132 36.720 2.008 28.202 2.876 1.098 16 428 -2 2089 6.960 98 -50 13 22 5.758 1.115 5.452 2.964 1.950 370 2006 t a n g so
vdi 1996 (%) 210,5 208,9 184,8 598,1 821,2 25,5 50,0 5.323,5 142,1 1.514,7 100,0 220,0 403,5 -118,2 312,0 670,8 -83,3 1.533,3 -2.600,0 550,0 -1.200,0 15052,6 29,7 153,7 -100,0 25,0 80,8 387,5 -100,0 36900,0
P h a n FDI cac k h u viic t r o n g FDI c u a
t h e gidi (%) N a m 1996 100,0 84,54 15,64 1,80 1,02 0,41 0,00 0,13 0,30 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,13 0,23 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 0,22 0,55 0,00 0,00 0,42 0,10 0,00 0,00 2006 100,0 84,12 14,34 4,04 3,02 0,17 0,00 2,32 0,24 0,09 0,00 0,00 0,04 0,00 0,17 0,57 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,47 0,09 0,45 0,00 0,00 0,24 0,16 0,00 0,03
P h a n FDI cua MLT FDI cua cac
niidc dang phat trien (%)
N a m 1996 100,00 11,49 6,51 2,61 0,00 0,85 1,94 0,11 0,00 0,01 0,14 0,02 0,83 1,47 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,06 1,40 3,51 0,00 0,01 2,68 0,65 0,02 0,00 2006 100,00 28,17 21,06 1,15 0,00 16,17 1,65 0,63 0,00 0,01 0,25 0,00 1,20 3,99 0,00 0,06 -0,03 0,01 0,01 3,30 0,64 3,13 0,00 0,00 1,70 1,12 0,00 0,21 Nguon: "World Investment Report 2006
Tdi lieu tham khdo: Tap chi My Latinh