DECLARATION I hereby declare that is the research work by myself under the supervision of Assoc Prof PhD Vu Minh Cat The results and conclusions of the thesis are fidelity, which are not copied from any sources and any forms The reference documents relevant sources, the thesis has cited and recorded as prescribed The results of my thesis have not been published by me to any courses or any awards Ha Noi, date 12 July 2016 Author of the thesis Nguyen Thi Lan i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost I would like to thank the supervisor Ass Prof PhD Vu Minh Cat for his great contribution in this thesis, for supporting me and guiding me stay on the right trend I also want to show deep thanks to Ass Prof PhD Tran Thanh Tung who is main co-ordinator, making value contributions to success in Master course In addition, please allow me to send my best gratitude to the “Research, identification scientific arguments and proposal of Phu Quoc – Con Dao marine spatial planning for sustainable development” subject, Code: KC.09.16 /11-15, which support a lot of valuable data for my thesis Ha Noi, date 12 July 2016 Author of the thesis Nguyen Thi Lan ii TABLE OF CONTENT LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii INTRODUCTION 1 The necessity of the study Study objectives Objects and scope of the study Study approaches and methodology Structure of the thesis CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW ON STORM SURGE STUDY AND GENERAL DISCRIPTION ON CON DAO ISLANDS 1.1 LITERATURE REVIEWS 1.1.1 Introduction about storm in Con Dao islands 1.1.2 International researches on storm surge 1.2.3 Storm surge researches in Viet Nam 12 1.2 GENERAL DISCRIPTION ON STUDY AREA 14 1.2.1 Natural conditions 14 1.2.2 Climate 16 1.2.3 Oceanographic regime 18 1.2.4 Socio-economic activities 19 CHAPTER 2: APPLICATION OF DELFT3D TO STUDY STORM SURGE 22 iii 2.1 Description of model 22 2.1.1 Delft 3D model 22 2.1.2 Typhoon model 25 2.2 Data used for the simulation 31 2.2.1 Topographical data 31 2.2.2 Hydrodynamic data 31 2.3 Model set up 32 2.3.1 Simulated domain and computed mesh 32 2.3.2 Model calibration 35 2.3.3 Model verification 39 CHAPTER 3: SIMULATION OF STORM SURGE IN CON DAO ISLANDS 42 3.1 Typhoon scenarios in the areas announced by Vietnam government 42 3.2 Extraction of water level around study islands 45 3.3 Simulation of storm surge based on suggested scenarios 47 3.3.1 Scenario 0: Simulation of water level in Con Dao without Durian typhoon47 3.3.2 Scenario 1: Simulation of Durian typhoon 48 3.3.3 Scenario 2: Simulation of Durian storm with changing wind speed 55 3.3.4 Scenario 3: Simulation of Durian typhoon with changing only its trajectory60 3.3.5 Comparison of scenarios 66 3.4 Chapter’s conclusion 69 CHAPTER 4: INUNDATED MAPPING DUE TO STORM SURGE 70 4.1 Introduction ArcGIS 70 iv 4.2 Building inundated maps and inundated calculation for research area 71 4.3 Build up inundation maps due to storm surge in Con Dao islands with scenarios accordingly 73 4.3.1 Building inundated mapping and calculation of inundated area for 1st scenario 76 4.3.2 Building inundated mapping and calculation of inundated area for 2nd scenario 77 4.3.3 Building inundated mapping and calculation of inundated area for 3rd scenario 79 4.4 Chapter’s conclusion 80 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION 81 CONCLUSIONS 81 Major results 81 Drawback 81 RECOMMENDATION 82 REFERENCES 83 APPENDIX 1: RESULTS OF MODEL CALIBRATION 86 APPENDIX 2: RESULTS OF MODEL VALIDATION 95 APPENDIX 3: WATER LEVEL IN CON DAO ISLANDS ACCORDING TO SCENARIO 99 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Storm Surge vs Storm Tide Figure 2: Map of Con Dao Island 14 Figure 1: System architecture of Delft3D 23 Figure 2: Sketch of wind velocity field for a moving cyclone 28 Figure 3: Computed Mesh created for Con Dao area 34 Figure 4: Topography of Con Dao islands 34 Figure 5: The water level line between observed water level and computed water level with C= 55 m0.5/s 37 Figure 6: The water level line between observed water level and computed water level with C= 75 m0.5/s 38 Figure 7: The water level line between observed water level and computed water level with C= 68 m0.5/s in hydraulic model verification 40 Figure 8: The water level line between observed water level and computed water level with C= 68 m0.5/s in Storm model verification 41 Figure 1: Partition of the storm risk of Vietnam coastal area 43 Figure 2: Extracted water level points in Con Dao 46 Figure 3: Diagram of water level without Durian storm at around Con Dao islands according to scenario 47 Figure 5: Trajectory of Durian typhoon 49 Figure 6: Diagram of water level at point according to 1st scenario 51 Figure 7: Diagram of water level at point according to 1st scenario 52 vi Figure 8: Diagram of water level at point according to 1st scenario 52 Figure 9: Diagram of water level at point according to 1st scenario 52 Figure 10: Diagram of water level at point according to 1st scenario 53 Figure 11: Diagram of water level at point according to the1st scenario 53 Figure 12: Diagram of water level at point according to the 1st scenario 53 Figure 13: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 57 Figure 14: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 57 Figure 15: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 57 Figure 16: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 58 Figure 17: Diagram of water level at point according to scenario 58 Figure 18: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 58 Figure 19: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 59 Figure 20: Diagram of water level at point according to 2nd scenario 59 Figure 21: Tracks of Durian typhoon according to the 3rd scenario 62 Figure 22: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred 62 Figure 23: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred 63 Figure 24: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred 63 Figure 25: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred at point according to 3rd scenario 63 Figure 26: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred 64 Figure 3.27: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred at point according to 3rd scenario 64 vii Figure 28: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred at point according to scenario 64 Figure 29: Diagram of water level difference when Durian typhoon occurred at point according to scenario 65 Figure 30: Diagram of water level difference at point 66 Figure 31: Diagram of water level difference at point 66 Figure 3.32: Diagram of water level difference at point 67 Figure 33: Diagram of water level difference at point 67 Figure 34: Diagram of water level difference at point 67 Figure 35: Diagram of water level difference at point 68 Figure 36: Diagram of water level difference at point 68 Figure 37: Diagram of water level difference at point 68 Figure 1: DEM map in Con Dao islands 74 Figure 2: Contour line in Con Dao islands 74 Figure 3: Inundated mapping in Con Dao islands due to storm surge in Durian typhoon according to 1st scenario 76 Figure 4 Inundated mapping in Con Dao island due to storm surge in Durian typhoon according to 2nd scenario 77 Figure 5: Inundated mapping in Con Dao island due to storm surge in Durian storm according to 3rd scenario 79 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Statistic of storm in Con Dao in the last 50 years Table 2: The average temperature of air in the Con Dao Island 16 Table 1: Data of model 32 Table 2 Parameters of Con Dao grid 33 Table 2.3: Tidal harmonic constants at borders 35 Table 4: Parameters of model 36 Table Table synthesis error values when calibration models 38 Table Basic characteristics and the potential affected by storm to coastal areas in Vietnam 43 Table Potential of storm surge and total water level for Vietnam coastal areas 44 Table 3 Co-ordination and depth of extracted water lever points in Con Dao 46 Table 4: General information of the Durian typhoon 48 Table Parameters of Durian typhoon 50 Table The highest WL difference and appeared time at points 54 Table Parameters of Durian typhoon according to the 2nd scenario .55 Table The highest water level difference and appeared time at extracted points according to 2nd scenario 59 Table 9: Parameters of Durian typhoon according to 3rd scenario 61 Table 10 The highest water level difference and appeared time 65 Table Parameters of DEM map in Con Dao 73 Table Inundated area in Con Dao islands according to 1st scenario 76 Table Inundated area in Con Dao islands according to 2nd scenario .78 Table 4 Inundated area in Con Dao islands according to 3rd scenario .79 vii INTRODUCTION The necessity of the study In recent years, the impact of global climate change, natural disasters has become more complex, especially storms, accompanied by sea level rise, which caused inundation in coastal area Storm surges can cause inundation to coastal areas and can cause dike break, especially if storms occur during high tides Therefore, studying, calculation and forecasting on the extreme water level during storm at coastal locations and assessment of inundated risk by storm is very important for finding the solutions and positive measures to prevent and mitigate damages Storm surge is a dangerous natural phenomenon, which caused a lot of damage to people and property In Vietnam, the highest water level has recorded as 3.6 m in 1989 by Dan storm Storm surge is particularly dangerous when the storm occurs at the same time with spring tides and in this situation, total water level rising combined with strong wave can cause dike breaks and wave overtopping and also cause heavy damages to people and property In Vietnam in general and Con Dao islands in particular, although there are a lot of studies of sea level fluctuations in storm, but most of which focus on water level fluctuations on a large scale The fluctuations of water level in coastal locations and inundated risk have not been interested adequately yet, especially when assessing the inundated risk of coastal area Therefore, studying of extreme water levels in storm, in consideration of tides, storm surges, waves and inundated risk to coastal area takes a great scientific meaning The result of study will contribute to mitigate the unfavourable impact of storm surges, serve for protection and maintenance, upgrading of coastal structures, shoreline protection, requirement for socio-economic development, environmental protection and sustainable development Study objectives To assess situation of inundation due to storm surge for Con Dao islands 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 06/12/2007 01:00 06/12/2007 07:00 06/12/2007 13:00 06/12/2007 19:00 07/12/2007 01:00 07/12/2007 07:00 07/12/2007 13:00 07/12/2007 19:00 08/12/2007 01:00 08/12/2007 07:00 08/12/2007 13:00 08/12/2007 19:00 09/12/2007 01:00 09/12/2007 07:00 09/12/2007 13:00 09/12/2007 19:00 10/12/2007 01:00 10/12/2007 07:00 10/12/2007 13:00 10/12/2007 19:00 11/12/2007 01:00 11/12/2007 07:00 11/12/2007 13:00 11/12/2007 19:00 12/12/2007 01:00 12/12/2007 07:00 12/12/2007 13:00 12/12/2007 19:00 3.09 2.66 3.32 1.36 3.04 2.88 3.52 1.26 3.01 2.96 3.55 1.22 2.85 3.05 3.62 1.22 2.61 3.66 1.25 2.27 3.12 3.58 1.57 1.96 3.26 3.53 1.94 3.07 2.64 3.27 1.45 3.04 3.10 3.63 1.41 3.02 3.08 3.46 1.11 3.02 3.08 3.65 1.19 2.52 3.11 3.51 1.28 2.21 3.14 3.62 1.54 2.00 3.19 3.65 1.94 0.02 0.02 0.05 -0.09 0.00 -0.22 -0.11 -0.15 -0.01 -0.12 0.09 0.11 -0.17 -0.03 -0.03 0.03 0.09 -0.11 0.15 -0.03 0.06 -0.02 -0.04 0.03 -0.04 0.07 -0.12 0.00 96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 49 50 51 52 53 13/12/2007 01:00 13/12/2007 07:00 13/12/2007 13:00 13/12/2007 19:00 14/12/2007 01:00 1.64 3.3 3.43 2.24 1.39 1.72 3.24 3.59 2.39 1.38 -0.08 0.06 -0.16 -0.15 0.01 97 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 TABLE 2.2 THE VERIFICATED WATER LEVEL OF STORM MODULE WITH C=68 m0.5/s Time 10 11 12 04/12/2006 01:00 04/12/2006 07:00 04/12/2006 13:00 04/12/2006 19:00 05/12/2006 01:00 05/12/2006 07:00 05/12/2006 13:00 05/12/2006 19:00 06/12/2006 01:00 06/12/2006 07:00 06/12/2006 13:00 06/12/2006 19:00 Observed water levels Computed water levels (i i ) 2.82 3.89 0.84 2.96 2.7 3.82 1.16 2.97 2.99 3.87 1.16 2.79 2.64 3.54 0.42 2.83 2.58 3.46 1.07 2.72 2.85 3.55 0.81 2.51 0.18 0.35 0.42 0.13 0.12 0.36 0.09 0.25 0.14 0.32 0.35 0.28 N 98 (i i ) 0.03 0.12 0.18 0.02 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.10 0.12 0.08 N (i i ) i 1 0.88 RMSE ( ) i 1 i N 0.12 i APPENDIX 3: WATER LEVEL IN CON DAO ISLANDS ACCORDING TO SCENARIO TABLE 3.1 WATER LEVEL IN CON DAO ISLANDS ACCORDING TO SCENARIO OBSERVATION POINTS Time Point Point Point Point Point Point Point 04/12/2006 00:00 0.82 0.82 0.75 0.69 0.67 0.77 0.84 04/12/2006 01:00 0.80 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.81 0.89 04/12/2006 02:00 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.08 1.04 1.13 1.20 04/12/2006 03:00 1.62 1.63 1.68 1.64 1.61 1.65 1.70 04/12/2006 04:00 2.23 2.23 2.31 2.27 2.24 2.24 2.26 04/12/2006 05:00 2.78 2.78 2.87 2.84 2.83 2.79 2.79 04/12/2006 06:00 3.20 3.20 3.28 3.27 3.27 3.21 3.18 04/12/2006 07:00 3.42 3.42 3.48 3.48 3.49 3.43 3.39 04/12/2006 08:00 3.42 3.42 3.47 3.48 3.49 3.44 3.41 04/12/2006 09:00 3.26 3.26 3.29 3.29 3.29 3.28 3.26 04/12/2006 10:00 3.00 2.99 3.01 2.99 2.99 3.01 3.02 04/12/2006 11:00 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.71 2.70 2.76 2.79 04/12/2006 12:00 2.61 2.60 2.61 2.56 2.55 2.64 2.68 04/12/2006 13:00 2.64 2.64 2.66 2.62 2.60 2.68 2.72 04/12/2006 14:00 2.83 2.83 2.87 2.83 2.82 2.85 2.88 04/12/2006 15:00 3.11 3.11 3.17 3.14 3.14 3.12 3.13 04/12/2006 16:00 3.41 3.41 3.46 3.47 3.47 3.41 3.38 04/12/2006 17:00 3.64 3.63 3.68 3.72 3.74 3.65 3.58 04/12/2006 18:00 3.73 3.73 3.77 3.85 3.90 3.81 3.73 04/12/2006 19:00 3.65 3.64 3.70 3.79 3.85 3.76 3.67 04/12/2006 20:00 3.30 3.29 3.34 3.43 3.49 3.40 3.30 04/12/2006 21:00 2.72 2.72 2.73 2.81 2.86 2.79 2.70 04/12/2006 22:00 2.04 2.03 2.01 2.05 2.08 2.05 1.99 99 Point 0.87 0.85 1.09 1.53 2.10 2.67 3.11 3.34 3.37 3.22 2.98 2.74 2.60 2.60 2.76 3.03 3.34 3.59 3.70 3.61 3.26 2.70 2.02 04/12/2006 23:00 05/12/2006 00:00 05/12/2006 01:00 05/12/2006 02:00 05/12/2006 03:00 05/12/2006 04:00 05/12/2006 05:00 05/12/2006 06:00 05/12/2006 07:00 05/12/2006 08:00 05/12/2006 09:00 05/12/2006 10:00 05/12/2006 11:00 05/12/2006 12:00 05/12/2006 13:00 05/12/2006 14:00 05/12/2006 15:00 05/12/2006 16:00 05/12/2006 17:00 05/12/2006 18:00 05/12/2006 19:00 05/12/2006 20:00 05/12/2006 21:00 05/12/2006 22:00 05/12/2006 23:00 06/12/2006 00:00 06/12/2006 01:00 06/12/2006 02:00 06/12/2006 03:00 1.36 0.84 0.57 0.64 1.04 1.63 2.29 2.86 3.28 3.49 3.49 3.32 3.08 2.86 2.78 2.85 3.04 3.31 3.57 3.74 3.77 3.57 3.12 2.48 1.76 1.09 0.62 0.43 0.61 1.36 0.83 0.57 0.64 1.04 1.64 2.29 2.86 3.28 3.49 3.48 3.32 3.07 2.86 2.78 2.85 3.05 3.31 3.57 3.73 3.76 3.57 3.12 2.48 1.75 1.09 0.62 0.43 0.61 1.31 0.76 0.49 0.62 1.07 1.71 2.38 2.96 3.37 3.56 3.54 3.35 3.08 2.87 2.79 2.89 3.10 3.37 3.62 3.77 3.81 3.63 3.15 2.48 1.73 1.04 0.54 0.37 0.60 1.30 0.72 0.43 0.56 1.02 1.66 2.33 2.93 3.35 3.55 3.53 3.34 3.06 2.83 2.74 2.83 3.06 3.35 3.63 3.83 3.90 3.73 3.25 2.55 1.76 1.02 0.49 0.31 0.55 100 1.30 0.70 0.41 0.53 0.98 1.62 2.31 2.91 3.35 3.55 3.54 3.34 3.05 2.81 2.73 2.82 3.05 3.35 3.64 3.87 3.96 3.79 3.31 2.59 1.78 1.02 0.47 0.29 0.51 1.32 0.77 0.53 0.66 1.07 1.66 2.30 2.88 3.29 3.50 3.50 3.33 3.09 2.88 2.81 2.88 3.07 3.32 3.57 3.76 3.86 3.69 3.22 2.53 1.76 1.05 0.55 0.42 0.63 1.31 0.80 0.60 0.74 1.14 1.70 2.32 2.87 3.26 3.47 3.48 3.33 3.10 2.92 2.86 2.92 3.09 3.31 3.52 3.69 3.78 3.59 3.11 2.45 1.71 1.05 0.60 0.50 0.72 1.37 0.87 0.62 0.68 1.00 1.52 2.15 2.75 3.19 3.42 3.43 3.28 3.06 2.86 2.75 2.79 2.97 3.24 3.52 3.70 3.74 3.54 3.09 2.45 1.75 1.11 0.66 0.49 0.63 06/12/2006 04:00 06/12/2006 05:00 06/12/2006 06:00 06/12/2006 07:00 06/12/2006 08:00 06/12/2006 09:00 06/12/2006 10:00 06/12/2006 11:00 06/12/2006 12:00 06/12/2006 13:00 06/12/2006 14:00 06/12/2006 15:00 06/12/2006 16:00 06/12/2006 17:00 06/12/2006 18:00 06/12/2006 19:00 06/12/2006 20:00 06/12/2006 21:00 06/12/2006 22:00 06/12/2006 23:00 07/12/2006 00:00 1.08 1.72 2.39 2.96 3.35 3.53 3.50 3.34 3.12 2.96 2.91 3.01 3.21 3.45 3.65 3.75 3.71 3.43 2.90 2.23 1.52 1.08 1.73 2.39 2.95 3.35 3.52 3.50 3.33 3.12 2.95 2.91 3.01 3.21 3.45 3.65 3.75 3.71 3.43 2.90 2.23 1.52 1.13 1.81 2.48 3.05 3.43 3.59 3.55 3.36 3.13 2.97 2.94 3.05 3.26 3.50 3.69 3.79 3.76 3.47 2.93 2.22 1.49 1.08 1.75 2.43 3.01 3.41 3.58 3.54 3.34 3.10 2.92 2.89 3.01 3.23 3.49 3.72 3.86 3.85 3.57 3.02 2.28 1.50 101 1.04 1.72 2.41 3.00 3.41 3.58 3.54 3.34 3.09 2.91 2.88 2.99 3.22 3.49 3.74 3.90 3.91 3.63 3.07 2.32 1.52 1.12 1.75 2.40 2.96 3.35 3.53 3.51 3.35 3.13 2.98 2.95 3.04 3.22 3.45 3.65 3.81 3.82 3.54 2.99 2.27 1.51 1.18 1.79 2.41 2.95 3.33 3.50 3.50 3.35 3.16 3.02 2.99 3.07 3.23 3.43 3.60 3.73 3.73 3.43 2.89 2.19 1.47 1.02 1.60 2.26 2.84 3.26 3.45 3.44 3.30 3.10 2.94 2.87 2.94 3.14 3.39 3.61 3.73 3.68 3.39 2.87 2.21 1.52 TABLE 3.2 WATER LEVEL IN CON DAO ISLANDS ACCORDING TO 1ST SCENARIO (m) OBSERVATION POINTS Time Point Point Point Point Point Point Point Point 04/12/2006 00:00 -1.66 -0.06 0.08 0.46 0.48 1.21 1.43 0.44 04/12/2006 01:00 -2.16 -0.06 -0.03 0.33 0.61 1.05 1.41 0.28 04/12/2006 02:00 -1.66 -0.06 0.16 0.51 1.03 1.24 1.70 0.36 04/12/2006 03:00 -0.92 -0.06 0.57 0.93 1.60 1.65 2.08 0.71 04/12/2006 04:00 -0.20 -0.06 1.10 1.48 2.20 2.18 2.52 1.19 04/12/2006 05:00 0.40 0.41 1.57 2.01 2.70 2.70 2.93 1.69 04/12/2006 06:00 0.89 1.05 1.96 2.42 3.00 3.08 3.22 2.08 04/12/2006 07:00 1.24 1.54 2.22 2.69 3.08 3.36 3.42 2.37 04/12/2006 08:00 1.28 1.61 2.29 2.76 2.94 3.45 3.46 2.45 04/12/2006 09:00 1.12 1.39 2.16 2.61 2.64 3.31 3.35 2.32 04/12/2006 10:00 0.84 1.02 1.90 2.33 2.32 3.07 3.17 2.09 04/12/2006 11:00 0.50 0.68 1.64 2.05 2.06 2.84 2.99 1.83 04/12/2006 12:00 0.33 0.41 1.48 1.87 1.96 2.59 2.91 1.67 04/12/2006 13:00 0.30 0.30 1.49 1.86 2.10 2.60 2.97 1.66 04/12/2006 14:00 0.50 0.70 1.67 2.04 2.44 2.78 3.12 1.82 04/12/2006 15:00 0.87 1.04 1.99 2.38 2.88 3.09 3.35 2.13 04/12/2006 16:00 1.33 1.64 2.35 2.77 3.33 3.44 3.57 2.50 04/12/2006 17:00 1.69 1.99 2.66 3.12 3.66 3.76 3.72 2.83 04/12/2006 18:00 1.85 2.11 2.80 3.31 3.77 3.96 3.77 3.02 04/12/2006 19:00 1.76 2.06 2.73 3.28 3.59 3.91 3.64 2.98 04/12/2006 20:00 1.41 1.77 2.40 2.97 3.12 3.58 3.32 2.71 04/12/2006 21:00 0.73 0.97 1.82 2.37 2.44 3.00 2.77 2.18 04/12/2006 22:00 -0.03 0.12 1.16 1.65 1.69 2.29 2.14 1.52 04/12/2006 23:00 -1.02 -0.06 0.46 0.91 1.05 1.60 1.59 0.85 102 05/12/2006 00:00 05/12/2006 01:00 05/12/2006 02:00 05/12/2006 03:00 05/12/2006 04:00 05/12/2006 05:00 05/12/2006 06:00 05/12/2006 07:00 05/12/2006 08:00 05/12/2006 09:00 05/12/2006 10:00 05/12/2006 11:00 05/12/2006 12:00 05/12/2006 13:00 05/12/2006 14:00 05/12/2006 15:00 05/12/2006 16:00 05/12/2006 17:00 05/12/2006 18:00 05/12/2006 19:00 05/12/2006 20:00 05/12/2006 21:00 05/12/2006 22:00 05/12/2006 23:00 06/12/2006 00:00 06/12/2006 01:00 06/12/2006 02:00 06/12/2006 03:00 06/12/2006 04:00 -2.13 -3.12 -3.12 -3.16 -0.95 -0.03 0.75 1.31 1.65 1.70 1.54 1.27 1.00 0.84 0.88 1.10 1.44 1.82 2.09 2.09 1.86 1.32 0.48 -0.43 -1.47 -3.11 -3.11 -3.11 -3.15 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 0.95 1.62 1.96 2.00 1.88 1.65 1.20 1.02 1.14 1.34 1.82 2.09 2.28 2.30 2.14 1.68 0.75 -0.01 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.09 -0.37 -0.32 0.06 0.61 1.28 1.89 2.36 2.65 2.69 2.55 2.32 2.10 1.96 2.01 2.19 2.49 2.82 3.04 3.06 2.85 2.36 1.68 0.93 0.19 -0.32 -0.52 -0.36 0.09 0.34 0.03 0.06 0.42 1.01 1.70 2.35 2.84 3.12 3.16 3.01 2.75 2.51 2.35 2.38 2.58 2.91 3.26 3.53 3.60 3.43 2.94 2.23 1.43 0.65 0.12 -0.10 0.03 0.47 103 0.63 0.45 0.59 1.02 1.59 2.17 2.62 2.94 3.02 2.87 2.57 2.26 2.04 1.99 2.18 2.55 2.99 3.39 3.65 3.66 3.35 2.75 1.97 1.19 0.56 0.20 0.18 0.51 1.12 1.09 0.80 0.82 1.20 1.78 2.45 3.08 3.56 3.84 3.89 3.75 3.53 3.29 3.13 3.17 3.35 3.64 3.95 4.21 4.27 4.07 3.58 2.87 2.09 1.38 0.91 0.70 0.83 1.27 1.22 1.06 1.25 1.68 2.21 2.79 3.32 3.69 3.90 3.92 3.82 3.67 3.52 3.47 3.52 3.66 3.85 4.01 4.09 4.02 3.78 3.28 2.63 1.95 1.38 1.06 0.97 1.30 1.75 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.76 1.39 2.00 2.48 2.77 2.83 2.71 2.49 2.27 2.13 2.15 2.34 2.64 2.98 3.23 3.29 3.10 2.70 2.02 1.28 0.58 0.08 -0.15 -0.08 0.27 06/12/2006 05:00 06/12/2006 06:00 06/12/2006 07:00 06/12/2006 08:00 06/12/2006 09:00 06/12/2006 10:00 06/12/2006 11:00 06/12/2006 12:00 06/12/2006 13:00 06/12/2006 14:00 06/12/2006 15:00 06/12/2006 16:00 06/12/2006 17:00 06/12/2006 18:00 06/12/2006 19:00 06/12/2006 20:00 06/12/2006 21:00 06/12/2006 22:00 06/12/2006 23:00 07/12/2006 00:00 -0.83 0.10 0.85 1.43 1.69 1.71 1.56 1.29 1.05 0.95 1.03 1.27 1.60 1.91 2.05 1.98 1.63 0.97 0.19 -0.90 -0.06 0.17 0.97 1.76 2.00 2.01 1.90 1.67 1.27 1.13 1.23 1.57 1.93 2.16 2.28 2.22 1.97 1.16 0.29 -0.06 0.72 1.39 2.00 2.46 2.69 2.71 2.58 2.36 2.16 2.08 2.15 2.36 2.64 2.91 3.04 2.98 2.67 2.10 1.41 0.64 1.10 1.81 2.44 2.92 3.16 3.18 3.02 2.78 2.57 2.47 2.54 2.77 3.08 3.39 3.56 3.55 3.27 2.70 1.97 1.16 104 1.84 2.53 3.07 3.38 3.44 3.27 2.99 2.72 2.53 2.53 2.75 3.11 3.52 3.85 3.98 3.83 3.35 2.61 1.75 0.93 1.89 2.58 3.20 3.65 3.89 3.92 3.77 3.56 3.35 3.27 3.34 3.54 3.82 4.09 4.26 4.22 3.93 3.37 2.63 1.87 2.31 2.90 3.42 3.78 3.97 3.98 3.88 3.75 3.64 3.61 3.68 3.82 3.97 4.08 4.09 3.94 3.63 3.07 2.41 1.76 0.84 1.49 2.11 2.57 2.82 2.86 2.73 2.52 2.33 2.24 2.30 2.51 2.80 3.10 3.26 3.22 2.95 2.45 1.75 1.01 TABLE 3.3 WATER LEVEL IN CON DAO ISLANDS ACCORDING TO 2nd SCENARIO OBSERVATION POINTS Time Point Point Point Point Point Point Point 04/12/2006 00:00 1.27 1.79 0.05 0.45 0.45 0.37 0.28 04/12/2006 01:00 1.17 1.72 0.06 0.43 0.44 0.37 0.36 04/12/2006 02:00 1.35 1.84 0.38 0.71 0.70 0.63 0.70 04/12/2006 03:00 1.78 2.16 0.90 1.19 1.17 1.09 1.19 04/12/2006 04:00 2.32 2.62 1.48 1.76 1.75 1.64 1.73 04/12/2006 05:00 2.83 3.08 1.99 2.28 2.28 2.13 2.16 04/12/2006 06:00 3.20 3.43 2.33 2.64 2.63 2.48 2.43 04/12/2006 07:00 3.44 3.66 2.52 2.86 2.86 2.71 2.60 04/12/2006 08:00 3.45 3.67 2.49 2.87 2.89 2.74 2.61 04/12/2006 09:00 3.32 3.54 2.30 2.70 2.69 2.56 2.39 04/12/2006 10:00 3.09 3.32 2.03 2.43 2.43 2.30 2.12 04/12/2006 11:00 2.84 3.09 1.81 2.18 2.16 2.08 1.96 04/12/2006 12:00 2.70 2.96 1.73 2.06 2.05 1.96 1.94 04/12/2006 13:00 2.72 2.98 1.78 2.11 2.10 2.02 2.05 04/12/2006 14:00 2.91 3.16 2.00 2.33 2.31 2.22 2.30 04/12/2006 15:00 3.21 3.44 2.31 2.65 2.64 2.52 2.56 04/12/2006 16:00 3.53 3.74 2.60 2.98 2.99 2.82 2.77 04/12/2006 17:00 3.77 3.97 2.78 3.23 3.25 3.05 2.86 04/12/2006 18:00 3.85 4.05 2.79 3.32 3.34 3.10 2.73 04/12/2006 19:00 3.72 3.92 2.63 3.18 3.22 2.99 2.54 04/12/2006 20:00 3.38 3.61 2.29 2.80 2.84 2.64 2.21 04/12/2006 21:00 2.87 3.13 1.76 2.18 2.22 2.01 1.68 04/12/2006 22:00 2.24 2.56 1.07 1.41 1.45 1.34 1.02 04/12/2006 23:00 1.61 2.03 0.36 0.74 0.74 0.64 0.40 105 Point 1.15 1.05 1.23 1.63 2.11 2.57 2.93 3.20 3.17 3.08 2.86 2.63 2.50 2.55 2.74 3.02 3.34 3.57 3.70 3.62 3.28 2.74 2.09 1.47 05/12/2006 00:00 05/12/2006 01:00 05/12/2006 02:00 05/12/2006 03:00 05/12/2006 04:00 05/12/2006 05:00 05/12/2006 06:00 05/12/2006 07:00 05/12/2006 08:00 05/12/2006 09:00 05/12/2006 10:00 05/12/2006 11:00 05/12/2006 12:00 05/12/2006 13:00 05/12/2006 14:00 05/12/2006 15:00 05/12/2006 16:00 05/12/2006 17:00 05/12/2006 18:00 05/12/2006 19:00 05/12/2006 20:00 05/12/2006 21:00 05/12/2006 22:00 05/12/2006 23:00 06/12/2006 00:00 06/12/2006 01:00 06/12/2006 02:00 06/12/2006 03:00 06/12/2006 04:00 1.11 0.85 0.91 1.27 1.86 2.53 3.14 3.60 3.83 3.84 3.71 3.49 3.30 3.20 3.25 3.44 3.71 3.96 4.11 4.06 3.82 3.36 2.74 2.02 1.35 0.89 0.72 0.86 1.31 1.68 1.52 1.55 1.76 2.21 2.80 3.37 3.80 4.02 4.03 3.90 3.70 3.51 3.42 3.47 3.65 3.90 4.15 4.29 4.25 4.02 3.59 3.00 2.35 1.82 1.53 1.42 1.50 1.78 -0.15 -0.31 -0.12 0.39 1.07 1.79 2.41 2.82 3.01 2.97 2.79 2.54 2.35 2.28 2.38 2.61 2.87 3.07 3.16 3.06 2.82 2.36 1.72 0.90 0.15 -0.29 -0.36 -0.07 0.51 0.24 0.06 0.22 0.68 1.33 2.04 2.67 3.11 3.33 3.33 3.16 2.91 2.71 2.62 2.70 2.91 3.20 3.46 3.62 3.59 3.32 2.79 2.01 1.27 0.48 0.07 -0.02 0.23 0.76 106 0.24 0.06 0.22 0.67 1.31 2.01 2.65 3.10 3.31 3.33 3.15 2.91 2.70 2.60 2.69 2.91 3.19 3.46 3.65 3.62 3.36 2.83 2.08 1.25 0.51 0.07 -0.03 0.24 0.75 0.16 -0.02 0.15 0.60 1.23 1.92 2.52 2.96 3.19 3.20 3.04 2.80 2.62 2.53 2.61 2.80 3.06 3.30 3.44 3.39 3.14 2.63 1.88 1.15 0.43 -0.01 -0.08 0.17 0.69 0.00 -0.07 0.19 0.72 1.37 2.02 2.56 2.93 3.10 3.10 2.94 2.71 2.56 2.57 2.71 2.89 3.08 3.21 3.20 2.97 2.71 2.25 1.59 0.85 0.21 -0.12 -0.11 0.25 0.83 0.99 0.75 0.81 1.16 1.71 2.31 2.89 3.35 3.61 3.61 3.49 3.29 3.10 3.01 3.08 3.24 3.51 3.80 3.93 3.97 3.73 3.25 2.60 1.88 1.22 0.79 0.63 0.78 1.21 06/12/2006 05:00 06/12/2006 06:00 06/12/2006 07:00 06/12/2006 08:00 06/12/2006 09:00 06/12/2006 10:00 06/12/2006 11:00 06/12/2006 12:00 06/12/2006 13:00 06/12/2006 14:00 06/12/2006 15:00 06/12/2006 16:00 06/12/2006 17:00 06/12/2006 18:00 06/12/2006 19:00 06/12/2006 20:00 06/12/2006 21:00 06/12/2006 22:00 06/12/2006 23:00 07/12/2006 00:00 1.97 2.65 3.26 3.69 3.89 3.88 3.74 3.55 3.37 3.32 3.40 3.59 3.83 4.03 4.09 3.97 3.65 3.13 2.48 1.76 2.29 2.91 3.48 3.88 4.07 4.07 3.93 3.75 3.58 3.53 3.61 3.79 4.03 4.21 4.27 4.15 3.85 3.37 2.75 2.13 1.22 1.95 2.53 2.91 3.06 3.01 2.84 2.62 2.47 2.45 2.58 2.79 3.00 3.14 3.14 2.99 2.69 2.19 1.48 0.66 1.46 2.18 2.78 3.19 3.38 3.36 3.20 2.99 2.82 2.78 2.89 3.10 3.35 3.56 3.63 3.51 3.16 2.55 1.75 1.05 107 1.44 2.15 2.76 3.18 3.36 3.36 3.19 2.98 2.82 2.76 2.86 3.08 3.36 3.57 3.65 3.54 3.20 2.59 1.81 1.01 1.36 2.05 2.64 3.05 3.25 3.24 3.10 2.89 2.73 2.70 2.79 2.98 3.20 3.39 3.44 3.32 2.98 2.39 1.64 0.91 1.50 2.15 2.67 3.02 3.18 3.17 3.04 2.87 2.77 2.81 2.92 3.06 3.20 3.26 3.13 2.89 2.57 2.05 1.36 0.64 1.79 2.41 3.00 3.44 3.67 3.66 3.52 3.36 3.22 3.17 3.23 3.41 3.66 3.89 3.96 3.90 3.57 3.03 2.34 1.64 TABLE 3.4 WATER LEVEL IN CON DAO ISLANDS ACCORDING TO 3RD SCENARIO (m) Time 04/12/2006 00:00 04/12/2006 01:00 04/12/2006 02:00 04/12/2006 03:00 04/12/2006 04:00 04/12/2006 05:00 04/12/2006 06:00 04/12/2006 07:00 04/12/2006 08:00 04/12/2006 09:00 04/12/2006 10:00 04/12/2006 11:00 04/12/2006 12:00 04/12/2006 13:00 04/12/2006 14:00 04/12/2006 15:00 04/12/2006 16:00 04/12/2006 17:00 04/12/2006 18:00 04/12/2006 19:00 04/12/2006 20:00 04/12/2006 21:00 04/12/2006 22:00 04/12/2006 23:00 Point 0.38 0.35 0.67 1.19 1.79 2.32 2.70 2.93 2.93 2.81 2.60 2.36 2.24 2.28 2.47 2.77 3.09 3.33 3.44 3.36 3.01 2.45 1.77 1.09 Point 0.44 0.36 0.66 1.21 1.80 2.32 2.71 2.92 2.94 2.81 2.60 2.36 2.24 2.28 2.48 2.78 3.09 3.33 3.44 3.37 3.02 2.45 1.77 1.09 Point OBSERVATION POINTS Point Point Point 0.60 0.57 0.86 1.36 1.95 2.46 2.80 3.03 3.05 2.90 2.66 2.44 2.34 2.41 2.62 2.93 3.23 3.45 3.55 3.47 3.12 2.54 1.84 1.14 0.63 0.57 0.84 1.35 1.93 2.45 2.81 3.05 3.09 2.94 2.68 2.44 2.34 2.41 2.64 2.96 3.29 3.54 3.68 3.61 3.25 2.65 1.92 1.17 108 0.65 0.54 0.76 1.24 1.85 2.40 2.78 3.05 3.11 2.95 2.69 2.44 2.31 2.35 2.57 2.91 3.26 3.57 3.76 3.73 3.39 2.77 1.98 1.20 0.84 0.77 0.95 1.37 1.90 2.39 2.74 3.00 3.08 2.95 2.72 2.53 2.43 2.47 2.66 2.95 3.26 3.52 3.70 3.67 3.32 2.71 1.96 1.23 Point 0.96 0.96 1.18 1.57 2.03 2.44 2.71 2.94 3.02 2.91 2.73 2.58 2.53 2.59 2.77 3.01 3.24 3.41 3.51 3.47 3.12 2.53 1.85 1.22 Point 0.76 0.64 0.79 1.17 1.68 2.20 2.59 2.89 2.98 2.88 2.67 2.45 2.31 2.30 2.46 2.75 3.09 3.37 3.52 3.44 3.09 2.54 1.88 1.24 05/12/2006 00:00 05/12/2006 01:00 05/12/2006 02:00 05/12/2006 03:00 05/12/2006 04:00 05/12/2006 05:00 05/12/2006 06:00 05/12/2006 07:00 05/12/2006 08:00 05/12/2006 09:00 05/12/2006 10:00 05/12/2006 11:00 05/12/2006 12:00 05/12/2006 13:00 05/12/2006 14:00 05/12/2006 15:00 05/12/2006 16:00 05/12/2006 17:00 05/12/2006 18:00 05/12/2006 19:00 05/12/2006 20:00 05/12/2006 21:00 05/12/2006 22:00 05/12/2006 23:00 06/12/2006 00:00 06/12/2006 01:00 06/12/2006 02:00 06/12/2006 03:00 06/12/2006 04:00 0.56 0.26 0.30 0.66 1.24 1.92 2.52 2.95 3.16 3.15 2.96 2.69 2.44 2.32 2.37 2.57 2.86 3.14 3.34 3.41 3.26 2.83 2.21 1.51 0.86 0.35 0.12 0.25 0.70 0.56 0.21 0.19 0.65 1.29 1.94 2.52 2.97 3.17 3.16 2.98 2.70 2.45 2.33 2.38 2.58 2.87 3.16 3.36 3.42 3.27 2.84 2.22 1.51 0.84 0.31 0.04 0.04 0.68 0.60 0.33 0.44 0.89 1.51 2.16 2.75 3.18 3.37 3.35 3.17 2.91 2.68 2.56 2.62 2.83 3.11 3.38 3.57 3.60 3.45 3.02 2.36 1.61 0.92 0.42 0.24 0.44 0.96 0.58 0.30 0.42 0.90 1.54 2.23 2.82 3.26 3.47 3.44 3.25 2.98 2.75 2.63 2.69 2.90 3.20 3.50 3.74 3.82 3.66 3.19 2.49 1.69 0.95 0.42 0.22 0.44 0.98 109 0.60 0.29 0.37 0.80 1.44 2.13 2.76 3.23 3.46 3.47 3.30 3.04 2.79 2.64 2.67 2.88 3.21 3.57 3.88 3.99 3.83 3.35 2.60 1.76 0.98 0.43 0.21 0.38 0.87 0.68 0.44 0.56 0.96 1.55 2.20 2.78 3.24 3.49 3.53 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.88 2.91 3.09 3.37 3.66 3.90 3.96 3.78 3.28 2.55 1.75 1.03 0.54 0.39 0.57 1.03 0.75 0.58 0.74 1.16 1.72 2.31 2.84 3.23 3.45 3.48 3.38 3.22 3.10 3.04 3.11 3.26 3.46 3.63 3.73 3.72 3.52 3.02 2.36 1.65 1.03 0.62 0.52 0.78 1.24 0.73 0.47 0.49 0.78 1.28 1.90 2.50 2.97 3.23 3.26 3.13 2.90 2.68 2.54 2.56 2.74 3.03 3.34 3.58 3.64 3.45 3.02 2.38 1.67 1.02 0.55 0.35 0.45 0.80 06/12/2006 05:00 06/12/2006 06:00 06/12/2006 07:00 06/12/2006 08:00 06/12/2006 09:00 06/12/2006 10:00 06/12/2006 11:00 06/12/2006 12:00 06/12/2006 13:00 06/12/2006 14:00 06/12/2006 15:00 06/12/2006 16:00 06/12/2006 17:00 06/12/2006 18:00 06/12/2006 19:00 06/12/2006 20:00 06/12/2006 21:00 06/12/2006 22:00 06/12/2006 23:00 07/12/2006 00:00 1.33 2.02 2.62 3.02 3.20 3.16 2.97 2.72 2.52 2.46 2.54 2.75 3.01 3.25 3.43 3.44 3.20 2.73 2.10 1.44 1.37 2.03 2.63 3.03 3.21 3.18 2.98 2.73 2.54 2.47 2.56 2.77 3.03 3.27 3.44 3.45 3.21 2.74 2.11 1.44 1.61 2.29 2.87 3.26 3.43 3.39 3.20 2.97 2.77 2.71 2.81 3.02 3.28 3.50 3.65 3.64 3.40 2.92 2.25 1.54 1.65 2.33 2.94 3.35 3.52 3.48 3.29 3.05 2.85 2.78 2.88 3.11 3.39 3.65 3.84 3.86 3.61 3.09 2.37 1.61 110 1.54 2.24 2.87 3.32 3.52 3.51 3.34 3.10 2.88 2.79 2.87 3.11 3.43 3.76 3.99 4.03 3.79 3.23 2.48 1.68 1.65 2.30 2.90 3.34 3.56 3.59 3.47 3.29 3.11 3.03 3.11 3.31 3.58 3.84 4.00 4.00 3.73 3.16 2.44 1.68 1.83 2.42 2.96 3.34 3.54 3.56 3.47 3.35 3.24 3.22 3.30 3.45 3.62 3.75 3.80 3.75 3.46 2.91 2.25 1.60 1.36 2.00 2.62 3.06 3.29 3.30 3.16 2.95 2.76 2.68 2.74 2.95 3.23 3.50 3.68 3.67 3.41 2.92 2.28 1.61 ... 0. 09 2 60. 86 K1 0 . 60 2 30. 11 0. 59 206 .96 0. 55 2 10. 09 0. 55 227.18 O1 0. 41 186 .08 0. 44 164. 40 0. 40 164.89 0. 37 181.79 P1 0. 18 229 .06 0. 18 204 .08 0. 17 206 . 70 0.16 225.34 Q1 0. 08 179.37 0. 07 158. 36 0. 07... (1 06 05 2? ?00 ” East longitude and 08 032? ?00 ” North latitude) - West boundary: From the point (1 06 05 2? ?00 ” East longitude and 08 032? ?00 ” North latitude) to point (1 0 602 8? ?00 ” East longitude and 08 032? ?00 ”... longitude and 08 053? ?00 ” North latitude) to point (1 06 05 2? ?00 ” East longitude and 08 053? ?00 ” North latitude) - East boundary: From the point (1 06 05 2? ?00 ” East longitude and 08 053? ?00 ” North latitude) to