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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURALDEVELOPMENT THUYLOI UNIVERSITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF REGULATION WORKS IN THE THAI BINH RIVER DOWNSTREAM Nguyen Vinh Nguyen MSc Thesis on Integrated Water Resources Management November, 2017 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUYLOI UNIVERSITY Nguyen Vinh Nguyen IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF REGULATION WORKS IN THE THAI BINH RIVER DOWNSTREAM Major: Integrated Water Resources Management THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE Supervisors: Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Mai Dang Assoc Prof Dr Ngo Van Quan This research is done for the partial fulfilment of requirement for Master of Science Degree at Thuyloi University (This Master Programme is supported by NICHE – VNM 106 Project) November, 2017 DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled, “Impact assessment of Regulation works in the Thai Binh river downstream” in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resources Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision(s) of Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Mai Dang and Assoc Prof Dr Ngo Van Quan The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Date: 19/11/2017 Signature Nguyen Vinh Nguyen i Abstract The Thai Binh River System’s downstream is a major economic region which is located in the Red River Delta including Hai Phong city and Thai Binh province Currently, water distribution here is significantly unreasonable for the downstream water stakeholders Therefore, a research regarding current water allocation assessment need and has to be conducted in order to find out appropriate solutions for solving and surmounting the issues In this study, the MIKE 11 model was used to simulate the recent status of the system and predict the water distribution according to some proposed scenarios based on the system operation in the future The study determined the existing problems and troubles in water distribution and water use in the Thai Binh River downstream Accordingly, the impact of structural measures proposed in this study on flow changing also was analyzed in details In addition, the study illustrated that the flow discharge of rivers in the system will be changed significantly after building the regulated structure works In addition, the study proposed some alternatives aiming to strengthen the management of system operation as well as water use in the downstream of Thai Binh River Key words: Red River Basin, Thai Binh River, MIKE 11 model, flow regime ii Acknowledgement I would like to give a big thank to all people who have supported and assisted me during my master thesis research Thanks for their support, encouragement and guidance that allowed me to complete this study in time Especially, I would like to express my appreciation to Assoc Dr Nguyen Mai Dang and Assoc Dr Ngo Van Quan for their unlimited encouragement, guidance, comments and technical supports as well as the thesis writing process from the beginning of this thesis research I wish to thank Dr Ilyas Masih, Assoc Dr Nguyen Thu Hien and Assoc Dr Ngo Le An for their feedbacks, references and support on the proposal process I also want to thank to all instructors and staff of Thuy Loi University who have helped me a lot during the master course I would like to give my appreciation to Dr Ho Viet Cuong, Msc Nguyen Thi Ngoc Nhan, Msc Nguyen Van Bach and Mr Phan Van Thanh who was willing to help me with modelling application in the thesis I also would like to thank the National Key Laboratory of River and Coastal Engineering and Institute of Vietnam Academy for Water Resources for their information and useful data input Last but not least, I want to take this opportunity to show my appreciation to my family, friends for their inspiration and support throughout my life; this research is simply impossible without you iii Contents DECLARATION i Abstract ii INTRODUCTION .6 1.1 Overview 1.2 Problem statement 1.2.1 Objectives of the study 1.2.2 Research questions 1.2.3 Thesis overview 10 LITERATURE REVIEW .11 2.1 Overview of hydraulic modeling 11 2.2 Mike 11 Model .13 2.3 Related studies .15 STUDY AREA 18 3.1 Description of the study area .18 3.1.1 Geography and River Network .18 3.1.2 Climatic characteristics 20 3.1.3 Hydrological characteristics 23 3.1.4 Tide and tidal effects in the river mouth 26 3.2 Water demand 27 3.2.1 Water demand for agriculture .27 3.2.2 Water demand for aquaculture .28 3.2.3 Water demand for industry 29 3.2.4 Water demand for domestic 29 3.3 Water exploitation and utilization issues 30 METHODOLOGY 32 4.1 The MIKE 11 Model 33 4.1.1 Governing Equations 33 4.1.2 Methods used in the performance evaluation .34 4.2 Mike 11 Model Set-up 35 4.2.1 Input data .35 4.2.1.2 Boundary conditions 37 4.2.1.3 Cross-sections 38 4.2.1.4 Meteorological and hydrological data .39 4.3 Modeling calibration .39 4.3.1 Step by step 40 4.3.2 Initial conditions setup 40 4.3.3 Calibrating the hydraulic parameters 40 4.3.4 Modeling calibration in flood season 41 4.3.4 Modeling calibration in dry season .44 4.4 Modeling validation .48 4.4.1 Modeling validation in flood season 48 4.4.2 Modeling validation in dry season .49 4.5 Proposed regulation works and scenarios 52 4.5.1 Proposed regulation works 52 4.5.2 Simulated Scenarios 53 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 54 5.1 Scenario results simulated in August 1996 55 5.2 Scenario results simulated in January 2007 62 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 72 6.1 Conclusions 72 6.2 Recommendations for further researches 73 APPENDIX 77 List of figure Figure 1.1 Thai Binh River downstream area Figure 2.1 Simulation interface file of Mike 11 (HD Module) .15 Figure 3.1: Map of the study area focus on two districts: Vinh Bao and Tien Lang 18 Figure 4.1: The research flowchart 32 Figure 4.2: Schematic of network and reservoirs considered in the Red River basin 36 Figure 4.3: River network for simulation by Mike 11 model 37 Figure 4.4 Model calibration process 39 Figure 4.5: Hydraulic parameters interface 41 Figure 4.6: The observed and simulated water levels for the 1996 flood event at Ha Noi station in the case of calibration .42 Figure 4.7: The observed and simulated water level in Van Uc River in 1/2006 – Trung Trang Station 45 Figure 4.8: The observed and simulated water level in Duong River in January 2006 – Thuong Cat Station 45 Figure 4.9: The observed and simulated hydrographs at Son Tay Station 48 Figure 4.10: The observed and simulated hydrographs at Ha Noi Station in January 2007 .49 Figure 4.11: The observed and simulated hydrographs at Tra Ly Station 50 in January 2007 50 Figure 4.12: Structure of the regulated dam in Moi River 52 Figure 5.1 The locations of selected cross-sections .54 Figure 5.2 Actual water level at the selected points 55 Figure 5.3 Actual discharge at the selected points 55 Figure 5.4: Simulated water level of PA1 .56 Figure 5.5: Simulated discharge of PA1 56 Figure 5.6: Simulated water level of PA2 .57 Figure 5.7 Simulated discharge of PA2 57 Figure 5.8: Simulated water level of PA3 .58 Figure 5.9: Simulated discharge of PA3 58 Figure 5.10: Simulated water level of PA1+2 .59 Figure 5.11: Simulated discharge of PA1+2 59 Figure 5.12: Simulated water level of PA1+3 .60 Figure 5.13: Simulated discharge of PA1+3 60 Figure 5.14: Simulated water level of PA1+2+3 61 Figure 5.15: Simulated discharge of PA1+2+3 .61 Figure 5.16: Actual water level at the selected points 62 Figure 5.17: Actual discharge at the selected points 62 Figure 5.18: Simulated water level of PA1 63 Figure 5.19: Simulated discharge of PA1 63 Figure 5.20: Simulated water level of PA2 64 Figure 5.21 Simulated discharge of PA2 .64 Figure 5.22: Simulated water level of PA3 65 Figure 5.23: Simulated discharge of PA3 65 Figure 5.24: Simulated water level of PA1+2 .66 Figure 5.25: Simulated discharge of PA1+2 66 Figure 5.26: Simulated water level of PA1+3 .67 Figure 5.27: Simulated discharge of PA1+3 67 Figure 5.28: Simulated water level of PA1+2+3 68 Figure 5.29: Simulated discharge of PA1+2+3 .68 List of table Table 2.1 Comparison of different One-Dimensional (1D) models 12 Table 3.1 Monthly average temperature of the year at stations 21 Table 3.2 Typical average monthly rainfall at stations 22 Table 3.3 Typical monthly average wind speed at three stations 23 Table 3.4: Total water used for cultivation and livestock in year 2012 28 Table 3.5: Water demand of cultivation in period of 2020 and 2030 28 Table 3.6 Water demand of livestock in the period of 2020 and 2030 28 Table 3.7 Water demand of aquaculture in 2012 29 Table 3.8 Water demand of aquaculture in the period of 2020 2030 .29 Table 3.9 Current status of water use of industrial zones .29 Table 3.10 Water supply for domestic in Tien Lang and Vinh bao districts 30 Table 3.11 Water demand of domestic in the period of 2020 and 2030 .30 Table 4.1: The upstream and downstream boundary of the model setup 39 Table 4.2: Calibrated Manning values of the river system 43 Table 4.3: Model performance of the MIKE 11 for the calibration at some stations 44 Table 4.4: Calibrated Manning values of the Red and Thai Binh Rivers .46 Table 4.5: Model performance of the MIKE 11 for the calibration in the dry season 47 Table 4.6: Error criteria of the model calibration in the 2002 flood event at some stations 49 Table 4.7: Model performance of the MIKE 11 for the model validation in the dry season 50 Table 5.1 Comparison between actual and simulated flows of PA1 .56 Table 5.2 Comparison between actual and simulated flows of PA2 .57 Table 5.3: Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA3 58 Table 5.4 Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA1+2 59 Table 5.5 Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA1+3 60 Table 5.6: Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA1+2+3 .61 Table 5.7 Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA1 .63 Table 5.8 Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA2 .64 Table 5.9: Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA3 65 Table 5.10: Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA1+2 .66 Table 5.11 Comparison of actual and simulated flows of PA1+3 67 Table 5.12 Comparison of actual and simulated flows PA1+2+3 .68 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusions This study investigated the influences of structural measures on water diversion of downstream areas of Thai Binh River, which passing Hai Phong city These results will play an esstial role in evaluating the current status of the study area as well as solving the existing issues in the area In this study, MIKE 11 model was calibrated andd validated for many rivers in order to identify the optimal parameters and then apply into some scenario simulations In general, there are a good fit between the observed and simulated hydrographs for both calibration and validation The model simulated the high flows satisfactorily by catching all of peak flow discharges The low flows were also simulated fairly well However, a bit difference at the beginning of the flood events caused by the influence of initial conditions The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of more than 0.7 and other error criteria are completely acceptable To assess the water diversion in the study area, six structural measures were proposed to simulate flows in the flood and dry season including weir, dam, salinity prevention weir, dredging and integrated solutions Measure of dredging river bed is more effective than weir and salinity prevention weir Alternatively, within the integrating solutions, the scenario of intergrating PA1 and PA2 was be chosen Based on the simulated results and a comparison of various solutions, the effectiveness of this solution is significant Water intake of Thai Binh River will be increased (about 50% in the fl)ood season and 85% in the dry season) Besides, the effectiveness of this solution would be higher if determining carefully the dredging depth (deeper elevation) In addition, if the salt intrusion preventation is considered for Thai Binh downstream, integrating all the scenarios is extremely needed to be taken int account aiming to strengthen the effectiveness of structural measures This is playing an important role in reprocessing Thai Binh River, salt intrusion prevention and declining the sediment concentration for Do Son Beach 72 6.2 Recommendations for further researches Regarding the limitations of data, it is recommended to collect and measure more hydrological data cross the study area in the future to strengthen the accuracy of hydrodynamic models Besides, all other necessary data such as river topography, hydraulic constructions and water demands are also needed to be updated frequently As for the structural measures, it is essential to investigate economic, technical and environmental aspects in details in case of considering the operation of upstream reservoirs Besides the structural measures, some non-structural measures are needed to be investigated as well such as promoting the management and operation of the system, updating and completing the irrigation, flood control and agriculture planning in details, applying new technology in agriculture, etc This study assessed the impact of structural measures on water diversion in Thai Binh River The results of study will contribute to solve the problems in the area To assess the water diversion in the study area, six scenarios were given to simulate flows in the flood and dry season They are constructing weirs, dredging and integrated solutions By the result, Measure of dredging is more effective than constructing weirs Finally, within the integrating solutions, the scenario was be chosen Besides the structural measures, some non-structural measures are needed to conside For example updating and completing the irrigation, technology in agriculture, etc 73 applying new References Allen, G P., Salomon, J C., Bassoullet, P., Du 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Publications Ltd Zaag, P Van Der, & Savenije, H H G (2013) Principles of Integrated Water Resources Management, (October) 76 APPENDIX Annex 1: The observed and simulated water levels for the 1996 flood event at other stations (Trung Ha, Son Tay, Trieu Duong, Pha Lai) in the case of calibration [meter] 18.0 Water Level SONGDA 50720.00 Time Series Water Level External TS Trung Ha 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11-8-1996 13-8-1996 15-8-1996 17-8-1996 [meter] 19-8-1996 21-8-1996 23-8-1996 25-8-1996 27-8-1996 29-8-1996 Water Level SONGHONG 29807.00 Time Series Water Level 15.4 External TS H Son Tay 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 11-8-1996 13-8-1996 15-8-1996 17-8-1996 19-8-1996 21-8-1996 77 23-8-1996 25-8-1996 27-8-1996 29-8-1996 [meter] 7.0 Water Level SONGLUOC 5250.00 Time Series Water Level External TS TRIEU DUONG H 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 11-8-1996 13-8-1996 15-8-1996 17-8-1996 [meter] 19-8-1996 21-8-1996 23-8-1996 25-8-1996 27-8-1996 29-8-1996 31-8-1996 Water Level SONGTBINH 1750.00 Time Series Water Level External TS Pha Lai H 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 11-8-1996 13-8-1996 15-8-1996 17-8-1996 19-8-1996 21-8-1996 78 23-8-1996 25-8-1996 27-8-1996 29-8-1996 31-8-1996 Annex 2: The observed and simulated hydrographs in 2006 dry event at other stations in the case of calibration Q TRÌNHMỰC NƯỚC TÍNH TOÁN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM HÀ NỘI THÁNG NĂM 2006 H(m) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Thời gian 0.0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 528 576 624 Thực đo Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM BẾN BÌNH THÁNG NĂM 2006 H(m) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Thời gian -1.0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 Thực đo 384 432 480 528 576 624 Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM CÁT KHÊ THÁNG NĂM 2006 H(m) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Thời gian -0.5 48 96 144 192 240 288 Thực đo 79 336 384 432 Tính tốn 480 528 576 624 Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯỚC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM PHẢ LẠI THÁNG NĂM 2006 H (m) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Thời gian -0.2 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 Thực đo 433 481 529 577 Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM TRIỀU DƯƠNG THÁNG NĂM 2006 H(m) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 T (giờ) -0.5 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 Thực đo 432 480 528 576 624 Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯỚC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM ĐƠNG Q THÁNG NĂM 2006 H (m) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Thời gian -2.0 49 97 145 193 241 289 Thực đo 337 385 433 Tính tốn 80 481 529 577 Q TRÌNH LƯU LƯỢNG TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM HÀ NỘI THÁNG NĂM 2006 Q (m^3/s) 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Thời gian 0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 528 576 624 Thực đo Tính tốn Q TRÌNH LƯU LƯỢNG TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM THƯỢNG CÁT THÁNG NĂM 2006 Q (m^3/s) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Thời gian 0 48 96 144 192 240 288 Tính tốn 81 336 384 Thực đo 432 480 528 576 624 Annex 3: The observed and simulated water levels for the 2002 flood event at other stations in the case of validation [meter] Water Level LO 105892.00 Time Series Water Level 16.4 External TS Viet Tri 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.4 12-8-2002 14-8-2002 16-8-2002 [meter] 17.6 18-8-2002 20-8-2002 22-8-2002 24-8-2002 26-8-2002 Water Level SONGDA 50720.00 Time Series Water Level External TS Trung Ha 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 12-8-2002 14-8-2002 16-8-2002 18-8-2002 20-8-2002 82 22-8-2002 24-8-2002 26-8-2002 [meter] Water Level SONGHONG 71482.00 Time Series Water Level 12.0 External TS H Hanoi 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 12-8-2002 14-8-2002 16-8-2002 18-8-2002 20-8-2002 83 22-8-2002 24-8-2002 26-8-2002 Annex 4: The observed and simulated hydrographs for the 2007 dry event at other stations in the case of validation Q TRÌNH LƯU LƯỢNG TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM THƯỢNG CÁT THÁNG NĂM 2007 Q (m^3/s) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Thời gian 193 97 277 325 421 373 469 517 565 613 Thực đo Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯỚC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM HÀ NỘI THÁNG NĂM 2007 H(m) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Thời gian 0.0 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 Thực đo Tính tốn 84 385 433 481 529 577 Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯỚC TÍNH TOÁN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM THƯỢNG CÁT THÁNG NĂM 2007 H(m) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Thời gian 0.0 97 193 277 325 373 Tính tốn 421 469 517 565 613 Thực đo Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM BẾN BÌNH THÁNG NĂM 2007 H(m) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 z 0.0 -0.5 Thời gian -1.0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 Thực đo 384 432 480 528 576 624 Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TOÁN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM CÁT KHÊ THÁNG NĂM 2007 H(m) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Thời gian -1.0 48 96 144 192 240 288 Thực đo 336 384 Tính tốn 85 432 480 528 576 624 Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM TRUNG TRANG THÁNG NĂM 2007 H(m) 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1 T (giờ) -1.5 48 144 96 192 240 288 336 Thực đo 384 432 480 528 576 624 Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯỚC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM PHẢ LẠI THÁNG NĂM 2007 H (m) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Thời gian -0.5 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 Thực đo 433 481 529 577 Tính tốn Q TRÌNH MỰC NƯƠC TÍNH TỐN VÀ THỰC ĐO TẠI TRẠM TRIỀU DƯƠNG THÁNG NĂM 2007 H(m) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 T (giờ) -0.5 48 96 144 192 240 Thực đo 288 336 Tính toán 86 384 432 480 528 576 624 ... - 0 .02 9 Ninh Co 0 .02 1 - 0 .02 5 Duong 0 .02 7 - 0. 031 Luoc 0. 019 -0 .02 3 Tra Ly 0 .02 2 - 0 .02 5 Thuong 0 .02 8 - 0. 032 10 Luc Nam 0 .02 7 - 0. 03 11 Thai Binh 0 .02 - 0 .02 3 12 Kinh Thay 0 .02 4 - 0 .02 8 13 Kinh... 0. 034 Lo 0. 03 - 0. 038 Hong 0 .02 2 - 0. 0 32 Ninh co 0 .02 1 - 0 .02 6 Duong 0 .02 7 - 0. 032 Luoc 0 .02 3 - 0 .02 5 Tra Ly 0 .02 3 - 0 .02 6 Thuong 0. 03 - 0. 033 10 Luc Nam 0 .02 9 - 0. 034 11 Thai Binh 0 .02 1 - 0 .02 5 ... Mon 0 .02 5 - 0 .02 7 14 Lai Vu 0 .02 - 0 .02 5 15 Van Uc 0. 018 -0 .02 2 16 Gua 0 .02 2 17 Mia 0 .02 1 18 Moi 0 .02 19 Hoa 0 .02 - 0 .02 4 20 Lach Tray 0 .02 1 - 0 .02 5 21 Day 0 .02 4 - 0. 031 22 Cau 0 .02 8 - 0. 033
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