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Do dd, van de dang dat ra la : P b i i sd dung ddng bp cbinh sach tien te va cbinh sich tai khoa de dinh hudng cho tbi trUdng tai chinb ei'u true lai; budc cie doanh nghiep thudc moi[r]
(1)PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRUING KINH TE VN NAM 2011
TAI COf CAU DAU TU' CONGJ NHIN TRONG MOI Tllgjjp
V6l SI/ PHAT TRii
•
CUA NEN TAI CHINH QUQC^Ii
TS TRAN DU LjCH Uy vien Uy ban Kinh te Quoc hpi
Tdi CO cau ddu tU cong hoi cdnh doi mdi mo hinh tdng trUdng vd tdi cdu trAc nen kinh te Id mpt nhUng vdn de kinh te dang ddt cho nhiem vu kinh te ke hoach ndm phdt trien kinh te-xd hpi 2011-2015 Trong bdi viet ndy, tdc gid trinh bdy van de, nhin tU gidc dp mdi tUOng quan he thdng giUa ddu tU cdng vdi cdc chinh sdch khdc tdng the nen tdi chinh qudc gia Dd Id mdi tUvmg quan giUa: (1) Bpi chi ngdn sdch nhd nUdc vd np cong; (2) Ddu tU cong vd sU van dpng ciia thi trUdng tdi chinh; vd (3) Tdi cdu true doanh nghiep nhd nUdc (DNNN) theo hUdng sii dung nhUcong cu de bd khuyet nhUng "khuyet tdt" ciia thi trUdng Sau cung tdc gid dUa nhUng gpi y di' tdi ca cau ddu tU cdng mpt cdch hieu qud vd thdnh cong thdi gian sdp tdi
1 Bdi chi ngan sach nha nu'dc va nof cong
• Thiic h i e n c h i n h s a c h tai c h i n h c o n g
tich cue, nhu'ng phai co d i e u k i e n
Theo quan diem cua tdi, nhieu nam nda, nUdc ta cdn pbai tbUe hien chinh sach chu dpng bpi ehi ngan sach b i n g dudng vay no de dau tu phat trien tang ky thuat va xa hpi, thdc day nhanh qui trinh cdng nghiep hda da't nUdc Dd la chinh sach tai chinb cong tich cUc dieu kien tich luy cua nen kinh te cdn thap, tiet kiem npi dia chu'a dap dng nhu cau dau tU phat trien ben vdng Khi van dung ehinh sach nay, phai kem theo cac dieu kien rat nghiem ngat nhU:
- Pbai cd chien lupc np chinh phd va np qudc gia rd rang:
- Nhdng dieu kien bao dam bieu qua diu tU;
Phat trien kinh te - Thang Gieng nam 2011
- Kha nang tra np b i n g ndm ei ve ddng VND lan ngoai te;
- T u i n thu nguyen t i e "phi tdn co bdi" va tinh ddng bd dau td;
- Cbi tieu nha nUdc t h a t sU tiet kiem; - C P che phan bd vdn dau tU minh bach; - Co che giam sat ddng vdn dau tU chat cbc ThUc te eic nam qua, bdi chi n g i n sich nha nude ehUa that sU tuan thu cac dieu kien neu tren va nhieu dieu kien k b i c nda, nen cbinh sach "tai chinb edng tich cUc" da trd n h i n td ed nguy CO gay bat dn cho nen lai chinh qudc gia Neu van tidp tuc d i u tu nbU vay thi he qui khdng chi tang rui ro cho be thdng lai cbinh, m i cdn gdp phan gay bat dn vl md (lam phat, nhap sieu)
(2)PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRUCING KINH TE VN NAM 2011
va phat hanh trai phieu chinh phu (nhu'ng khdng tinh vao bpi chi) de phan bd dau tU eho eie n g i n h va dia phUOng vao cic linh vdc m i Qudc hpi eho phep Tuy nhien, chUa cd sd d i n h gia mang tinh dinh lupng nao ve hieu qui cua cic dd a n v i cdng trinh da sd dung ngudn vd'n n i y Khi phan bd ngudn vd'n dau tU, Bd Ke hoach& Dau tU ed dUa tieu ebi de phan bd nhdng chda thay cd sU d i n h gia ve ket qua thUe hien mdt each cu the Tinh trang cac nganh va dia phUPng dUa q u i nhieu dd an, dd ngudn vdn rat ban che, nen noi nao, nginh nao "chay" thu tuc sdm tbi dupe chap thuan va giii ngan sdm, nOi n i o cham thi de lai Cach l i m dan den he qua l i pha vd tinh du tien va tinh ddng bp ciia diu tU, tinh trang "vdn nam" khip noi; ngan sich pbai t r i lai nhUng dii an thi phoi sUOng phoi gid Vdi each phan bd vdn dau td nhU bien nay, tdi ed cam tddng la chung ta lim vao tinh trang "phdng lao phai theo lao", vi neu ddng lai chUOng trinh bay dd an pao, thi tien da bd trd t h i n h "cua dd"
Dat nddc ta cdn nhieu khd khdn, d linh vUc nio, dia b i n n i o cung can phai dau tU Di nhien, cd dia ban vi linh vu'c ein Uu tien nbUng pbai kem theo cac dieu kien nha't dinh Neu nhin d giac dp loan cue tbi d dia b i n khd khdn, viec diu tU la vi muc tieu cbinh tri, xa bpi; cdn d nhdng dia ban ed lpi thd nhu Vung kinh te trpng diem phia Nam thi cung phai dau tU de nudi ngudn thu chung cho dat nude, chd khdng ehi vi nPi dd Vi du: Uu tien cho ndng thdn, mien ndi, bien gidi thi nen thUe hien theo chu'Ong trinh qudc gia, cd su' hd trp cua Trung UPng qui trinh thUc hien, ke e i giai doan thiet lap dd i n , trien khai thUe hien, danh gia ket qui, chd khdng nen k h o i n trdng cho dia phUPng theo each p h i n cap nhu hien nay; diu tU eho day nghe pbai tinh den "phan mem", tdc l i su ddng bp cua viec chuan bi dpi ngu giio vien, ddi tupng tuyen sinh, sd dung sau d i o tao, chd khdng chi viec xiy dUng trUdng Idp; n g i n h y te cdng vay Do dd, khdng the phan bd diu td vdi mpt each nhin k b i dOn giin la nganh hay dia ban, ma phii cu the den tdng du i n ; thdi diem dau tU, each thuc hien de can ddi ngudn vdn vdi phUPng cham; lam du an n i o phai ddt diem dUa vio sU
dung, pbai bio dam tinh ddng bd va linb lan toa eua tdng du i n Can pbai cd co che trach nhiem ve dau tU kem hieu qua
• Vay npf c h i n h phii d e n ngvidng nao la an
toan?
Trong CO ciu no cdng (theo khai niem np cdng da dupc dinh nghia Luat quan ly np cdng) eua nUdc ta hien nay, chu yeu la no dai ban, vay nen chUa cd i p life ldn ve k h i nang tra np Vi du nam 2011 bd' tri 85 ngan ty de tra np so vdi 590 ngan ty thu ngan sach (ty le g i n 15%), tbi van an loan Tuy nhien, neu phan thu cdn lai sau tra np va chi thudng xuyen cang giam va tiep can den tbi viec vay np da den ngUdng mat an loan Ddi vdi mot nen tai cbinh cdng, viee bpi chi ngan sach nha nUd'c lien tue bat ngudn td diu tu cdng (trong thdi gian 10 nam) nhUng khdng tao ddpc bieu qui eua mpt nen kinh te ed kha nang tao gia tri cao ho'n (tinh tUPng ddi), the bien sU thang du cho "tai s i n xuat md rpng" (can cd mde chenh lech gida ngudn thu va chi tbudng xuyen + tra np den ban), tbi nguy cP mat an loan thUc sU xiy Cu the: neu ndm 2001, N h i nUdc vay np dUdi nhieu hinh thdc dd thUe bien dau tU v i vay bat diu xuit hien bpi chi O' thdi diem n i y chUa cd thang dU gida ngudn thu va ebi tbudng xuyen thi vio thdi diem nam 2010, pbai cd thang dU n g i n sach ebo dau tU sau kbi ngudn thu da bd d i p ebi thudng xuyen va tra no den ban Vdi each tinh nbU vay, can phan tich va danh gia tinh hinh vay np 10 nam qua va xiy dung chien lupc t i i cbinh cdng 10 nam tdi, dd mdi ed eP sd danh gii ve tinh an toan Do dd, neu khong cd du b i o xa d tam qudc gia cung nhu d DNNN thi nguy cP mat an loan xua't hicn, va ed the dan den khdng the chdng dd kip Tinh trang n i y dupc gpi la "vd np"
2 Moi quan he giu'a dau tu'cong va sU van dpng cua thj tru'dng tai chinh
Trong giai doan 2001-2005, nen kinh to VN phue bdi sau t i c ddng cua eude khung hoing tai ehinh khu vdc, tdc dp tang GDP binh quan 7,5%/ nam 0' giai doan n i y , tdng dU np tin dung eua be thd'ng ngan bang thUOng mai (NHTM) tang trung binh 23%'-247c/nam; bdi ebi ngan sach dddi 5%:
(3)PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRUONG KINH T E V N N A M 2011
•5^
GDP; tdng dau tU xa bdi'GDP khoang 38% Tinh binh dien tUOng ddi binh thudng nam 2006 (GDP tang 8.3%; du np tin dung tang 24%; bpi chl ngan sach 5% GDP ) Td nam 2007, bien tUpng b i t thudng da xay ra:
- Du np tin dung cua he thdng NHTM tang dot bien so vdi tdc dp tdng GDP (nam 2007: GDP tang 8,6%; du np tin dung tang 53,4%-; nam 2008: GDP tang 6,4%, du np tin dung tang 21 ,&%\ nam 2009: GDP tang 5,3 %, du np tin dung tang 37,3%)
- Bdi ehi ngan saeh g i n 77r.GDP
- Tdng diu tu xa bpi dat mde 42% GDP Tai ed hien tUpng tren? Binh tbudng bay bat tbudng? Nguyen nhan td diu? Qua quan sat thu'c tien tinh binh, tdi cd nhan xet ve nguyen nhan sau day:
-I- Thu nhdt, bong bdng cua tbi tru'dng chu'ng khoan (TTCK) va tbi tru'dng bat dpng san (TTBDS) td cudi ndm 2006 den cudi nam 2007 da tao dot bie'n thi tru'dng tin dung va nd da binh tbanh lu'png t i i s i n i o so vdi nen kinh te thu'c (sd chenh lech gida tai s i n tai chinb vdi tai s i n thUe) ma lam phat ndm 2007-2008 da san b i n g khoang chenh lech dd b i n g mpt mat bang gii mdi
Su tang tin dung cac nam dd khdng tao su' tang tai san thUe d i n g ke cua nen kinh te ma cbi bieu bien d GDP danh nghia Mat khac, tang nhap sieu dot bien nam qua edng lim tdng tdng cung tien (quan be h i n g - tien), nhUng nen kinh te gia edng, ty trpng gia tri gia tang CO eau gia tri b i n g hda tha'p nen dd tang khdi lupng tien te nhUng khdng lam tdng GDP (U'dc khoang 70%-80% gia tri nhap sieu vat tU, nguyen lieu, may mde thiet bi ehi chuyen hda vao gii tri xuat khau ehu khdng lam tang trUe tiep GDP)
+ ThU hai, ndm qua 2008-2010, TTCK chu yeu boat dpng p tbi trUdng thd cap, mpi ngudn von boat dpng cua bau bet eie doanh nghiep ddu dua vao be thdng NHTM Cbinh giai doan la thdi ky mat can dd'i cung - ciu "dich vu tin dung ngan bang" nen cung la giai doan tao "manh dat mau md" cho cae NHTM ed p h i n nho ddi boat dpng dua tranh lam bung nd tin dung
Phat trien kinh te - T h a n g Gieng nam 2011
va nghiem trpng hon la g i y rdi thj tru'dng tin dung; lam cho chinb sach tien le mat phuOng hu'dng, p h i i lien tuc ddi phd n g i n ban, nguy cp bat dn tang cao Trong bdi c i n h dd cpng them tie dpng cua cudc khung h o i n g tai cbinh v i suy thoii kinh te t o i n cau dan den sU mat niem tin cua n h i dau tu nen ca chdng khoan vdn l i n chdng khoan np tren TTCK deu be t i c NHTM "mpt minh mpt cho" Lpi nhuan cua NHTM tdng nhuiig rui ro cua ea he thdng va yeu to b i t dn kinh te vi md khong giam m i ehi chuyen hda hinh thdc ma thdi
+ ThU ba, tinh trang bdi ebi n g i n sich trien mien ngiy cing ldn nhd "chiec thdng khdng diy"; dau tu cdng thieu ddng bp va khdng tuan thu nguyen t i e ehi phi eO hdi da gdp phan tang nhanh he sd ICOR Trong nam 2009-2010, de thdc day tdng GDP, khu vu'c d i u tu edng bao gdm diu to cua ngan sach nha nu'dc va DNNN tdng nhanh, thu but mpt khdi lUpng tin dung k b i ldn; dd mpt p h i n bpi ehi ngan sach dUa vio tin dung va p h i t banh Ngay c i t r i i phieu eua Cbinh phu cung dda ehu ye'u vao NHTM, phan buy dpng triic tiep td cdng chung chiem ty trpng nhd Nhin chung, td mpi tbanh phan kinh te lan ngin saeh nha nudc deu dua chu yeu vao be thd'ng NHTM Mpt khdi lupng tien k h i ldn dua vio khu vUc nay, nhUng tien dp d i u tU keo dai, thieu ddng bp nen khdng tao khdi lupng tai s i n tdOng dng, keo cham vdng quay cua ddng tien
(4)PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRL/O'NG KINH TE VN NAM 2011
3 Tai cau true life lUdng DNNN theo hUdng suf dung nhu^cong cu de bo khuyet nhu'ng "khuyet tat" cua thj tru'dng
V i n de cai each D N N N e h i n h la "tai ca'u t r u e " lUc luong de lam td't vai trd t h a m gia dieu t i e t thi trUdng, cung c i p t d t hon cac loai " b a n g hoa va dich vu cdng epng" phuc vu muc t i e u p h a t t r i e n ben vdng;
Neu ddng t r e n quan d i e m n a y p h a n tich lUc lupng DNNN h i e n hdu t b i d a n g t d n t a i v i n de sau day: (i) Su n h a p n b i n g gida d o a n h n g h i e p kinh doanh vi muc tieu lpi n h u a n ( b i n h t h d c edng lyi vdi dinh ehe cdng phi lpi n h u a n ; (ii) H a u b e t cac n g a n h ed D N N N deu k h d n g " d a n d i t " dupe tbi IrUOng, neu bd eO cbc dpc q u y e n Dieu n a y cho Ihay vice quan tri k e m bieu q u i ; va (iii) Hai n h d m linh vUc can sU can t h i e p cua lUc lUpng k m h t e n h a nude la: cung cap h a n g b o a - dich vu c d n g epng va cac n g a n h k i n h te co h i e u q u i s i n h Idi t h a p nhUng c i n t h i e t eho q u i t r i n h C N I I (nbU: co cbc t a o , edng n g h i e p phu t r p , d a u tU eho TTBDS so cap, nghien edu, d n g d u n g va p h a t t r i e n cdng n g h i e p edng n g h e e a o ) nbUng dUdng nbU Nha nude lai "nbudng" cho thi trUdng N h i nUde dau to p h a t t r i e n linb vUe n a o p h a i t h e hicn quyet Uim chinh tri cda N h a nUdc, chd k h d n g p b i i de mac DNNN can n b a c h i e u qua t a i c b i n h don thuan
Tai cau true Idc lu'png D N N N de lUc lupng n a y thu'c su' l i sue m a n h vat c h i t , c d n g vdi t h e che kinh tc trd t b a n h edng eu dieu t i e t tbi trUdng cd hieu qua Day la mdt ndi dung quan t r p n g , k h d n g chl n h a m n a n g eao bieu q u i q u a n ly n h a nude ve kinh tc ma cdn gan k e t dupe v a n dc k i n h t e vdi lien bp v i edng b i n g xa hpi Do vay can cd m d t dao luat dc chd dinh v a n de n e u t r e n
Trong dieu kien cua VN, can xay d u n g mpt be tbdng quan diem d d n g bd ve mdl n e n t a i c b i n h quoc gia dUa t r e n c b i n h sach "lai c h i n b cdng tich cue"; sd dung cac cdng eu cua c b i n h sach t i i k h o a , bpi ehi chu ddng de xay d u n g k e t c i u b a t i n g va thuc day t a n g tru'dng k i n h t e : s o n g c b i n h s a c h tren la "con dao hai ludi', ndu co ehe q u a n tri cdng \ c u k e m se ed t a c d u n g ngu'Oc lai
De l a i eo eau d i u t u cdng, t r u d c b e t p h a i ddi
mdi can b a n phUo'ng thu'c q u a n tri t a i c h i n b cdng: Co cau td chdc bp m a y h a n h c h i n h n h i nude; p h u o n g t h d c p h i n bd d a u td; co cho g i a m s a t v i d a n h g i i h i e u q u i ; q u a n d i e m ve vi I n , \ a i trd, chdc n a n g cua DNNN C a n d a t van de l a i cP cau d a u tu' c d n g t r o n g moi q u a n he be t h d n g de cd budc di cu t h e M p t t r o n g nbu'ng uu l i e n l i :
- Sua ddi L u a t n g a n s a c h n h a nu'dc t h e o hu'dng t i c h b i e t loai n g a n s a c h : n g i n s a c h qudc gia va n g a n sach dia phu'Ong
- N h a nude thd'ng n h a t ve t h e cbc t a i e h i n h cdng, cdn t h i e t l a p v i thUe tbi n g i n s i c h t h i giao quyen tU ehu cho c b i n h quyen dia phu'Ong ddi vdi n g a n sach dia phUPng ( H D N D quyet d i n h i ;
- N g a n s a c h qudc gia Qudc hpi quyet dinh (bao gdm p h i n t r p e i p cho dia phuong);
- Tien tdi vice x i y du'ng L u a t n g a n sach h a n g n a m t h e o quy t r i n h xay d u n g lu al cua Qudc hdi: m a n g t i n h t h d n g le qudc t c ; b i o d a m su' giam s a t cua Qudc hpi ddi vdi n g i n sach qudc gia va Hpi d d n g n h i n d a n ddi vdi n g a n sach dia phu'OngB TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1 Tong cue thdng ke (2010) Nien giam thdng ke 2009
2 Chinh phu (10/2010) Bao cao ke hoach kmh te-xa hdi nam 2010 va phudng hudng nhiem vu nam 2011 bao cao tai ky hpp thu Quoc hpi
3 Bp Ke hoach & Dau tu (2010) Bao cao ve phan cap dau tu
4 Vien Nghien cdu Quan ly kinh te TW (2009) Bao cao tai cau true kinh te
5 Le Xuan NghTa (2010) bai viet tai hpi thao "On dinh kinh te vT mo, tri tang trudng " tai TP.HCM, 21-22/9/2010
6 Tran Du Lich (10/2010) Vuot qua thach thuc hudng den muc tieu phat tnen dai han tham luan tai ky hpp thu Quoc hoi